Professional Football Wrap-Up

 

To be honest, I did not watch a lot of NFL football this weekend, as my Bears played Thursday and my Miami Hurricanes put on a show on Saturday, but I did watch some and read as much as I could about the other games in order to put together a bit of a report for you.  Here is that report ...

Game of the Week

Cleveland Browns 27 Tennessee Titans 24.  Seriously.  This is not a joke.  Another contender was the Dolphins first victory of the season over the New York Jets.  Again, seriously.  Close game throughout - with both teams scoring 10 points in the final quarter.  DeShaun Watson (QB for the Browns) threw for 308 yards and Tony Pollard (RB for the Titans) rushed for 129 yards and 3 TDs.  Carnell Tate really starting to assert himself with 5 catches for 69 yards and fellow rookie K.C. Concepcion had 8 catches for 129 yards himself.  Actually just a really good game.  Cleveland leads the AFC North at this moment, believe it or not.

Best Team Performance

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Buccaneers annihilated the Carolina Panthers - in Charlotte - 43-13, and this just demonstrates how important a true starting quarterback is in the NFL.  Baker Mayfield wasn't even called upon to do much (7-11 for 64 yards and 1 TD), but his presence no doubt helped clear some running lanes for Bucky Irving (106 yards, 2 TDs on 24 carries), Kenneth Gainwell (88 yards on 14 carries), and even Sean Tucker (52 yards, 1 TD on 7 carries).  The Panthers were so thoroughly dominated by the Buccaneers that Kenny Pickett made an appearance.  Yes, THAT Kenny Pickett.  Tampa with its 2-5 record is now only one game back in the win column of the division lead.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens (second half).  The Ravens turned a 13-0 halftime lead over the Cincinnati Bengals into a 35-13 rout at the hands of Joe Burrow (22-30, 292 yards, 4 TDs), Tee Higgins (6 catches, 148 yards, 1 TD), and Ja'Marr Chase (5 catches, 62 yards, 1 TD).  

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Caleb Williams, QB - Chicago Bears.  For the second straight week, Caleb Williams earns this honor, this time by outdueling fellow 2024 QB draft pick Drake Maye.  Williams was 22-33 for 308 yards and 2 TDs, while spreading the ball around as 5 different receivers had at least 3 catches, and the 3 were caught by Cole Kmet who left the game - and the season - with a knee injury.  This week will be interesting as the Bears take on the number 1 passing and total defense in the Seattle Seahawks.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Alex Singleton, LB - Denver Broncos.  Singleton finished the game with 17 tackes, including 1 sack as the Broncos defeated the Arizona Cardinals 30-16.

And because this week deserves two mentions ...

Kendal Daniels, LB - Atlanta Falcons.  Daniels was a large contributor to the Falcons 29-20 upset-win over the previously undefeated San Francisco 49ers as he made 11 total tackles, and in the critical fourth quarter came up with a big interception and a timely fumble recovery on successive downs.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Dylan Laube, KR - Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders may be streaking in the wrong direction, but not so for Laube, who returned two kickoffs for 78 yards giving the Raiders offense pretty good field position for most of the game.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Bournemouth.  Bournemouth went into Old Rafford and annihilated Manchester United 3-0, behind two first half goals from Rayan and Marcus Tavernier, and then polished off in the second half with one from Evanilson.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Nicolas Jackson, F - Aston Villa.  Jacson scored a brace surrounding Erling Haaland's league-leading 9th goal of the season as Aston Villa beats Manchester City 2-1.

Goat of the Week

Bryce Young, QB - Carolina Panthers.  Not so much a goat as just horrible play.  Young was 14-27 for 163 yards with 1 TD, 2 INTs, and was sacked 5 times.  And he was pulled for Kenny Pickett in Carolina's 43-13 defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Mike Penders, G - Chelsea.  Just truly one of the worst goalkeeper own-goals ever.

Breakthrough Performance

Omar Cooper, WR/Mason Taylor, TE - New York Jets.  The second-year tight end and the rookie wide receiver showed promise for the future with both hauling in five receptions and Cooper gaining 115 yards - with 1 TD - and Taylor gaining 62 yards - with 2 TDs.  Whomever is going to the throwing the ball for the Jets in the future is going to have some talented pass catchers.

Finally

 

Cam Skattebo, RB - New York Giants.  Skattebo, who has shown flashes before, put together a complete game, earing 124 yards on the ground with 1 TD on just 17 rushes, and showing that he can be a primary back in this league.

Impact Injury

Aaron Jones, Jr, RB - Minnesota Vikings.  Suffered a knee injury, and the potential impact on the Vikings is huge, given that the undefeated team is being carried by its defense, and has barely any offensive presence as it is.

Team Rising

New York Giants.  They defeated the Houston Texans in overtime are sit atop the NFC East at 4-2-1.

Team Falling

Indianapolis Colts.  A respectable 16-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings gives them a disrespectable 2-5 records, and the firesale began today with the trade of star guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, but we are working off record.)

1. Minnesota Vikings (6-0)

2. San Francisco 49ers (6-1)

3. Buffalo Bills (5-1)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)

6. Chicago Bears (5-2)

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)

31. Tennessee Titans (1-6)

30. Miami Dolphins (1-5)

29. Washington Commanders (1-4-1)

28. New York Jets (2-5)

Middle Teams

15. Green Bay Packers (4-3)
16. Baltimore Ravens (4-3)

17. Carolina Panthers (3-3)
18. Los Angeles Ram (3-4)

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Question:  The Los Angeles Chargers sit at 0-6 on the season.  Who was the Chargers starting quarterback the last time the Chargers started 0-6?

Answer:  Jim Harbaugh, in 2000.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

Pretty packed week!

6. Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos.  This would have been higher on the list if KC hadn't lost to Seattle this week; and could have been waaaay higher if Denver actually looked watchable.

5. Baltimore Ravens v. Buffalo Bills.  Usually a marquee matchup, made more important by Baltimore's necessity to right its shop and the return of Lamar Jackson.

4. Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers.  Seriously.  Both teams are tied atop the AFC North, so this game is very important!

3. Manchester City v. Brighton & Hove Albion.  The top of the table Citizens versus BHA, which sits in third place.  We all know about the goal-scoring prowess of Erling Haaland for Man City; but BHA's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen sits atop the leaderboard with (tied for the) most clean sheets!

2. Chicago Bears v. Seattle Seahawks.  Stellar offense versus amazing defense for two likely playoff teams!!!  Add-in Monday night, and we have a show!

1. Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions.  Exactly like our #2 battle - stellar offense versus amazing defense - plus this is an intra-divisional battle!!!

Trivia

The Minnesota Vikings are the last remaining undefeated team at 6-0.  What was Minnesota's best start ever, and when did that occur?

Picks of the Week - Week 4

 

Very weird week.  The late-slot games could have been very as I was up late in a couple.  The Arizona backdoor cover really got me, as that was my big bet.  San Francisco hold them there and I go from a losing week to a winning week.    Still, a pretty good week considering some of the craziness that occurred.  Week 4 - let's do this.  Remember, early game on Sunday in London!!!  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I thought this was an easy pick because selecting the Steelers would have violated two football gambling rules:  (1) Pick the home team on a short week; and (2) Never pick a road intra-divisional favorite.  But, more importantly, did DeShaun Watson remember he was once ... GOOD?!

 

Washington Commanders +4 against Indianapolis Colts in London (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Neither of these teams have looked particularly great overall, but the Commanders did play well with Marcus Mariota under center last week in defeating Seattle.  So, the fact they are getting points in this game is important.  I will take them, for sure, especially since points are really hard to come by in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.  And yes, that is a dig at their soccer club.

Chicago Bears -4 v. New York Jets

I hate making this pick, even against the Jets because the Jets have a solid defense and the Bears are playing on a short week.  But, the opportunity to win their third game of the season with a third-different starting quarterback - since Tyson Bagent is expected to start, not Case Keenum - was just way too tempting.  If the Bears defense can play as tough as they have in the second halves of games, they should not just win, but cover.

Arizona Cardinals +2 1/2 at New York Giants

What a weird game, and a weird betting line.  Arizona is a mountain time zone team, not a pacific time zone team, but they do not observe daylight savings time in Arizona - and thus, they are three hours behind New Jersey and playing in the early afternoon time slot.  So, I should just pick the Giants.  But it just seems like Jameis Winston will make a key turnover at a key time in the game.  And the alternative is J.J. McCart ... ha, ha, ha!!!  

Buffalo Bills -7 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots defeated the Bills last year, but this team is a far cry from last year's squad.  Their defense is still pretty stout (6th in scoring and overall), but the Bills have a very balanced top offense (1st in scoring, 4th in rushing and total offense, 9th in passing - and in a huge stat 3rd in third-down conversion).  I am taking the Bills until New England starts to play like last year (which may not occur).

Houston Texans -3 v. Dallas Cowboys

Houston might be the most disappointing team in the NFL so far this year.  But, even as disappointing as they are, they still have the better defense in this game (duh?) but their offense has also been better than that of Dallas.  Given this shocking stat, I will give up the points, where I was very close to just taking the points here.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Philadelphia Eagles

This is a battle of competing gambling laws:  Pacific Team in the early slot on the east coast (should select Philly) versus Eagles on a short week (should pick the Rams).  I am taking the Rams because Puka Nacua is back, and that opens up this entire offense.  And don't you think Matthew Stafford is a better quarterback than Case Keenum?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Green Bay Packers

Yes, Baker Mayfield is injured and not playing, and we no little to nothing about Jalon Daniels (he's from Kansas).  But, what I do know is that both of these teams have struggled, and in those games I take points.  Also, Green Bay is a road, intra-divisional, favorite, so I will pick Tampa Bay, and not like it.  But to be fair, I would not like it if I had selected Green Bay either.

Tennessee Titans +11 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

No, I do not think that Tennessee is going to upset Baltimore.  It is just that 11 1/2 is A LOT of points in the NFL, and the road team has historically been successful in this series, regardless of the stature of the programs when they play.  I will take double-digit points and like it.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

You can go back and ready my picks, and I have been higher on Cincinnati than most, especially with their two new defensive tackles (and they are 9th in the NFL against the rush!).  But, the rest of the defense is well below par (and not in the golf way) (27th overall and 28th against the pass) and Trevor Lawrence enters the game with a 107.8 rating.  AND I get points?! 

Minnesota Vikings -9 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

It is possible that Brain Flores will be disappointing if they give up a SINGLE POINT to his former employers.  They may not.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Las Vegas Raiders

A road intra-divisional favorite Pepster?  Yes, when that favorite is second in the NFL in offense and 4th in total defense.  Although the Raiders are showing progress, and are an amazing 3-0 on the season, they are just 17th in total defense and 20th in total offense.  That is not going to get it done against this revitalized Chiefs offense with Kenneth Walker carrying the rushing load.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

Do I believe that the Chargers are finished with Harbaugh and that this is his last season as head coach?  Yes, I do.  Do I believe that they will beat Seattle?  No, probably not a motivated Seahawks team coming off a surprising loss to Washington last week.  But do I think the Chargers are too talented to stay winless?  Also yes.  And that is why this game should at least stay closer than a TD.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I am riding with San Francisco until the stop looking like San Francisco has looked this season.  That, coupled with the fact the Broncos are 29th in total offense and 30th in total defense, this game could get out of control.

Detroit Lions -4 at Carolina Panthers

I have also been higher on Carolina than most people, especially since their offense is 1st overall in passing, and 6th in total offense, and they are 5th in passing defense.  But, Detroit is still Detroit with their one loss being to Buffalo Bills, one of the best two teams in the NFL in my estimation (at least as of right now).  So I believe Detroit rolls into Carolina and takes care of business.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This is incredibly hard to judge given that we have only seen one Atlanta game with Michael Penix, Jr. at quarterback - and they were spectacular.  I think that we are going to get an amazing game, offensively exciting, and New Orleans pulls it out on a Tyler Shough to Juwan Johnson capitalizing on the emotion of the night as the 20th-anniversary of the opening of the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina - the Steve Gleason game!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings -9 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

It is possible that Brain Flores will be disappointing if they give up a SINGLE POINT to his former employers.  They may not.

I really, really, really wanted to roll with San Francisco here, especially since they are only giving up 2 1/2 whereas Minnesota is giving up 9 1/2.  But, this Minnesota Vikings defense is LE-GIT, (2nd in scoring defense, 4th in rushing defense, and 1st in third-down defense), so the offense could score 17 to 21 and still cover this spread.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 7-9

Last Week Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 21-26-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-2 

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($940)

Picks of the Week

I guess putting some thought and analysis into games can help.  13-2 BABY!!!  Quite possibly my best week ever, even including weeks before I kept this blog.  Now, I know that a reversal is coming, and probably deserved, so I am going to tempt fate and just brag about this week for a while, until that reversal occurs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

There would have to be a very compelling reason for me to select the visiting team on a short week.  The Jaguars getting points is that compelling reason.

Chicago Bears +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The obvious selection here is the Raiders, but when not one, but TWO backup quarterbacks will be starting a game, strange things will happen, like maybe a 8-6 Raiders victory!

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

Buffalo Bills -8 at New England Patriots

This New England team cannot score points (31st in the league at 12 per game), and they cannot teams from scoring (Tied for 24th in the league.)  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 3rd in scoring and 3rd in scoring defense.

New York Giants +3 v. Washington Commanders

I actually like thsi Commanders squad a little bit more than most, but I am making this selection on a feeling that Saquon Barkley with a game under his belt is going to be closer to his real self, and that will open up some passing lanes for Darren Waller as well.  Close game, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For all of the tealk about the 3-2 Buccaneers being the surprise team in the NFC South, the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons are about even or better in most offensive stats, and are 2nd in the NFL in total defense.  Imagine if they had a quarterback?!

Detroit Lions +3 at Baltimore Ravens

This is strength on strength.  Detroit's 3rd-ranked offense versus Baltimore's 3rd-ranked defense.  The Lions are the number 4 passing team in the league and 8th rushing team.  Baltimore is the 2nd-best passing defense and 9th-best rushing defense.  Detroit is the 4th-highest scoring team, and Baltimore is the 4th stingiest defense.  The difference?  Detroit's defense is better than Baltimore's offense.

Arizona Cardinals +9 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona is a really bad squad, on both sides of the ball, with the exception that they use to be able to run the ball with James Conner - but he is on IR.  But, Seattle isn't THAT good to  be giving up 9 plus points.  They only score 24 a game, and give up 21.6.  I'll take the points and avoid watching this game.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have won several games selecting Pittsburgh as an underdog this year.  But not this game against this offense.  The Rams are 5th in total offense and 6th in passing.  The Steelers are 30th in total defense and 25th in passing defense.  I expect the Rams to put up more than enough points to coast, even if TJ Watt gets a sack or two.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Denver Broncos

Only because Aaron Jones returning makes him the best player on the field for either team.  Another game to avoid watching!

Kansas City Chiefs -6 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City hasn't exactly been lighting teams up.  With the exception of the Bears game, KC has played teams pretty close, including a boring 19-8 performance against the Broncos last week.  So, taking the points seems obvious here.  But, then we see the Chargeres are last in the league in passing defense and next-to-last in total defense, so if there is a team against which the Chiefs could solve some of their offensive problems, this would be it.  And ... the Chargers played Monday night, so they are on a short week.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

These are the two best offenses in the league.  The Eagles defense is just a bit better than the Dolphins.  When something is seemingly close, I'll take the points.  I don't like this pick though, and I wouldn't like it if I picked Philly, either.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco looked good - or at least as good as any offense has looked against the Browns this year - in a loss, whereas the Vikings looked bad in a win against the lowly Bears.  I expect San Francisco to bounce back in a big way.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

I don't like any of these picks strongly enough to make them my big bet, so I landed here.  I don't like this one because I hate giving up points on the road; but so was Atlanta.  I thought about the Giants at home, but I am not comfortable with that pick.  KC merited consideration, but they have been a bit sluggish.  In short, I just felt more confident in Cleveland than anybody else.

Last Week's Record:  13-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  53-36-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1,230

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,610

Professional Football Weekly Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 3 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  For the first time this season (thanks Irma) I watched a lot of football, so I have a pretty good sample size.

Game of the Week

Seattle Seahawks 30 v. Los Angeles Rams 29 - Wow, an exciting Thursday night game.  We hardly ever get those.  Russell Wilson threw the last of his four TDs to Chris Carson on 4th and goal to take a one-point lead over the Rams.  Jared Goff (and his 395 yards passing) then leads the march downfield until usually reliable Greg Zeuerlein missed a game-winning field goal from essentially extra-point distance.  Fun back-and-forth game wherein both teams played well on both sides of the football.

Best Team Performance

Green Bay Packers - A masterful 34-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on the road cements Green Bay as true contender in the NFC.  It also pushes the Cowboys down a peg, as they suffer their second-straight loss, despite Dak Prescott throwing for 463 yards.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Cleveland Browns - I would love to say the New York Jets, but they are still missing Sam Darnold.  Likewise, the Washington Racists are contenders, but they did play the juggernaut that is the New England Patriots.  So, Cleveland, which was absolutely decimated by the San Francisco 49ers 31-3, especially coming off two pretty good performances.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Christian McCaffrey, RB - Carolina Panthers.  Mr. Do-Everything for the Panthers had a stellar day, gaining 176 yards and 2 TDs on the ground, and 61 yards and a TD on 6 receptions in Carolina's 34-27 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

AND

DeShaun Watson, QB and Will Fuller, V, WR - Houston Texans - This is a joint award because we cannot have one without the other. Watson finished with 426 yards passing and 5 TDs, 217 yards and 3 TDs of which were hauled in by Fuller.  This prolific passing attack led to Houston's 52-23 victory over the hapless Atlanta Falcons.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco 49ers - Continuously harassed Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield and it showed up in the stat line.  Bosa finished with 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 tackles for loss and 5 quarterback hits.  The San Francisco defensive line was the single most potent position on the field throughout the entire game.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Zane Gonzalez, K - Arizona Cardinals.  The Arizona kicker confidently and easily kicked a game-winning 31 yard field goal as time expired to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals for their first victory on the season, and the first victory in Kyler Murray's short career.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Wolverhampton - The Wolves went on the road to the Etihad and defeated Manchester City 2-0 behind a brace from Adama Traore, ending the scoreless draw in the 80th minute and putting the game on ice in the 94th minute.

Brighton & Hove Albion - The Seagulls share the honor with the Wolves as they soundly defeated the struggling Tottenhom Hotspurs 3-0 at home behind a brace from Aaron Connolly and an opening goal from Neal Maupay.  Albion was decidedly the better team throughout, and earned their three points.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Matthew Longstaff, M - Newcastle United.  The 19 year old wunderkind made his English Premier League debut against perennial power Manchester United and scored the winning (and only) goal in Newcastle's 1-0 upset win.

Goat of the Week

Freddie Kitchens, Coach - Cleveland Browns.  No game plan at all to try to protect Baker Mayfield as the Browns' quarterback was annihilated by San Francisco's swarming defense.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Marc Albrighton, M - Leicester City.  Albrighton fouled Liverpool's Sadio Mane in the penalty area (confirmed by VAR), in the 90th minute allowing James Milner to score the game winner on the resulting penalty kick.

Hit of the Week

Daniel Snyder, Owner - Washington Racists.  Fires head coach Jay Gruden on Monday after the Racists fell to 0-5 after their Sunday loss to the New England Patriots.  The hit? Calling Gruden into the office to fire him at 5:00 a.m.

Breakthrough Performance

Aaron Jones, RB - Green Bay Packers.  In a very important intra-NFC game, Aaron Jones controlled the game with 107 yards rushing and 4 TDs, to go with 75 yards receiving.

Finally

Kirk Cousins, QB - Minnesota Vikings.  Just one week after being called out by both of his star receivers, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, Cousins goes 22-27 for 306 yards and 2 TDs, both to Thielen.  But, as we all know, consistency has always been Cousins' problem

Impact Injury

Kyle Juszczyk, RBT - San Francisco 49ers.  The perennial Pro-Bowl fullback dominated this game as the lead blocker for Matt Breida (114 yards on 11 carries, including an opening play 83 yard touchdown), Tevin Coleman (97 yards on 16 carries), and even Raheem Mostart (34 yards on 7 carries).  Juszczyk even contributed in the box score with 2 catches for 20 yards (both first downs).  His presence will be missed for the next 4 to 6 weeks. 

Team Rising

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts, despite the late preseason retirement of Andrew Luck, have started 3-2, including this week's 19-13 defeat of the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.  The Colts are definite contenders in the AFC South, if not the AFC itself.

Team Falling

Cleveland Browns - I could have put the Chicago Bears here after their 24-21 loss to the Oakland Raiders in London, but that was an organizational problem, deciding to travel to London on Thursday.  The Bears did not wake up until the second half, which they then dominated, so it will have to go to the Cleveland Browns after being annihilated 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday Night Football to fall to 2-3 on the season.  Plus, their offensive line, which was already a known weakness, became even more exposed.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked ahead by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.)

1. New England Patriots

2. San Francisco 49ers

3. New Orleans Saints

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Seattle Seahawks

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Washington Racists

31. Cincinnati Bengals

30. Miami Dolphins*

29. New York Jets

28. Atlanta Falcons

*Please note that the Dolphins are the worst team so far this year, but they have the luxury of a bye already, so their record is slightly better than Cincinnati and the Racists.

Middle Teams

15. Oakland Raiders

16. Minnesota Vikings

17. Carolina Panthers

18. Detroit Lions

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Last Entry's Trivia Question was:  Tom Brady begins his 20th season with the New England Patriots.  How many players have played at least 20 years with only one team throughout their careers, and out of those players, who has played the most years (and with which team)?

Answer:  3 Players - Darrell Green (Washington Racists) and Jackie Slater (Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) 20 years; Jason Hanson (Detroit Lions) 21 years.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6. Washington Racists v. Miami Dolphins - The two actual worst teams in the league battle for the choice to choose Tua Tagavailoa (or Jake Fromm, or Justin Herbert, whomever they want), as the tanking continues.

5. Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers - Ranked this highly primarily because not a lot of exciting games are taking place this week, but this is Monday Night Football, and it is for the NFC North division lead.  

4. Premier League is off on national team duty this weekend.

3. Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings - Two teams that may have flaws, but are generally playing pretty well and are both definite playoff contenders.  This head-to-head matchup could have big playoff implications either as the first playoff tiebreaker or as a common NFC opponents

2. San Francisco 49ers v. Los Angeles Rams - I am matchup between two exciting teams, one on offense with great players on defense (the Rams) versus one with a great defense with some really good players on offense (the 49ers).  This game should be a fun one to watch, and is one that the Los Angeles would need to keep from falling 3 games behind San Francisco.

1. Houston Texans v. Kansas City Chiefs - Two high-flying, exciting offenses orchestrated by young quarterbacks (not named Mitchell Trubisky).  This is easily the matchup to watch this week, and it comes at 1:00 on Sunday.

Trivia

Since I missed a couple of weeks, there are multiple questions today.

1.  With Josh Rosen now starting for the Miami Dolphins, there are now 3 quarterbacks to make starts for 2 different teams in their first two seasons in the NFL.  Who are the other two?

2.  With New England's most recent victory over Buffalo in Buffalo, Tom Brady now has the most wins of any quarterback in the NFL in Buffalo this century (since 2001).  Who has the next most?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

I watched this week's games from the same place as week 1, so no new review, other than to say our server Michael was amazing, and they took away the stupid games that took up perfect bar-top table space, and we sat at the new bar-top tables.  Thanks Ariel!

Duffys' Sports Grill
225 Clematis Street
West Palm Beach, FL
561/249-1682

Picks of the Week

Two weeks without analysis, that ended up OK.  Let's see what happens this week with some actual pick analysis.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Short week road teams are not supposed to cover, much less win outright.

Chicago Bears +5 at Baltimore Ravens
I don not expect the Bears to win this game, but I don't fully trust the Ravens either.  The Bears played the Vikings relatively close last week, so I expect that to continue, and Baltimore is only averaging 18 points per game anyway, so it might be tough to cover.

Miami Dolphins + 13 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins look like a trainwreck right now, but Atlanta may not have anyone to catch the ball for them except for Julio Jones, who is  a great option, but it does help to have at least somebody else on the other side for the defense to have to cover.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings
I don't normally like taking road divisional favorites, but Green Bay has won 5 of their last seven at Minnesota.  Coming into this game, statistically speaking, the Vikings are more dominant on offense (9th in total yards to 16th), whereas it is the Packers who are more dominating on defense (6th in passing defense to 20th).  Aaron Rodgers likes those numbers.

Detroit Lions +5 at New Orleans
Raise your hands if you know that Detroit is outscoring New Orleans per game this year?  No you didn't.  Detroit is also third in rushing defense, going against a team that is trying to run the ball to take pressure off Drew Brees.  They are going to have to keep relying on Brees in this game.

New England Patriots -9 at New York Jets
The Jets have gone three-and-out on every opening drive this year.  If they do that to the Patriots, they could end up down 14-0 to a Patriots team that is 1st in passing and total yards, and 3rd in points.  For as much talent as people say the Jets have on their defense, they are 30th in rush defense and 25th in total  yards.

Washington Racists -10 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate this line.  I was hoping for 7 1/2 or 8.  But, I have to take Washington as San Francisco is travelling from the west coast to play an early game, which is murder on the road team historically.  That and San Francisco is bad offensively (22nd in total yards and 25th in points scored) and just as bad on defense (28th in total defenses and 22nd in points allowed).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Another road favorite, ugh.  Carson Palmer has led the Cardinals to the second most passing yards in the league, but he has almost as many INTs (5) as TDs (6).  Some of Palmer's yards can be attributed to the fact that they HAVE to pass, since they cannot run after the loss of David Johnson.  I am not sure that Adrian Peterson can help with that.  Palmer, and possible Peterson, are shells of their former selves.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is second in passing yards per game, with Dough Martin now back after a full game under his belt.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 v. L.A. Rams
The Jaguars - behind Leonard Fournette - are number one in the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, and the Rams are 27th in rushing defense.  Gurley will get his yards as well, but this game is about Leonard Fournette.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes the Chiefs are undefeated.  Yes the Steelers have not been as dominating as expected this year (see loss to Chicago Bears).  So, this looks like Kansas City in a romp.  However, Kansas City's defenses is 27th in total  yards allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed.  I think Antonio Brown is going to have a huge game.  Kareem Hunt can have a big game as well as the Steelers are 28th in rushing defense.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. L.A. Chargers
Offensively the Raiders have been horrible (30th in total yards; 26th in passing yards), but Derek Carr's return has to give them a spark and Amari Cooper some receptions, right?

Denver Broncos -13 v. New York Giants
Big line for a Sunday night game, but the Giants are horrible, and they lost almost every receiver on their roster.  It is time for the practice squad to try to step up against Denver's 1st ranked defense.  Won't happen.

Indianapolis Colts +7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The only winners in this game are those that do not watch.  Bad offenses (Indianapolis is 25th and Tennessee is 24th).  Bad defenses (Colts are 31st and Titans are 22nd).  I'll take the points, because, why not.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.
A lot of points to give up for a big bet, but the Texans are at home, whereas the Packers are giving up points on the road, and Denver is giving 13.  I also thought about Jacksonville, but its Jacksonville.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  16-13-1
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  37-38-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $155
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($705)

Football Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 3 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  For the first time this season (thanks Irma) I watched a lot of football, so I have a pretty good sample size.

Game of the Week

Chicago Bears 23 v. Pittsburgh Steelers 17 - There were a lot of good games, and multiple overtime games, but this one was the closest/best.  Coupled with the Sherrick McManis blocked field goal returned by Marcus Cooper who slowed down and was stripped at the goal line, but with the ball batted out of the end zone by Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell for a penalty as time ran out of the first half, giving the Bears one untimed play from the one, which they then false started to settle for a 23 yard field goal.  Crazy.

Best Team Performance

Minnesota Vikings - They thoroughly dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, winning the game 34-17, and it wasn't even that close.  The Buccaneers defensive backfield might as well have been absent as Vikings wide receivers did whatever they wanted; Stefon Diggs finished with 8 receptions for 173 yards and Adam Thielen had 5 receptions for 98 yards.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens - I think the Ravens missed their flight to London, losing 44-7 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Baltimore's score came after surrendering 44 straight points to the Jaguars.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Stefan Diggs, WR - Minnesota Vikings.  The aforementioned Diggs gained 173 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 8 catches and scored 2 touchdowns.  So far this year he is the best receiver not named "Antonio Brown".

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

DeMarcus Lawrence DE, Dallas Cowboys - Lawrence tallied 3 sacks against the Arizona Cardinals, as the Cowboys defeated the Cardinals 28-17 on Monday night.  He now has 6 1/2 on the season to lead the NFL.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Sherrick McManis, DB - Chicago Bears.  In the first quarter he was the gunner on a punt, and fielded the muff from Steelers' punt returner Eli Rogers.  At the end of the second quarter, McManis blocked the field goal that led to the craziness described above.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Machester City.  They defeated EPL bottom dwellers Crystal Palace 5-0, as they should have.  What made their performance the most impressive of the weekend is that they possessed the ball 72% of the time.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Alvaro Morata, F - Chelsea - He scored a hat trick against Stoke City and is now tied for the league lead in goals with Romelu Lukaku, the Manchester United forward that everyone expected to sign with Chelsea.  And he did so during the week in which Diego Costa, the high scoring forward that Morata replaced at Chelsea, completed his transfer to Atletico Madrid.

Goat of the Week

Marcus Cooper, CB - Chicago Bears - Pulled his best Leon Lett impression at the goal line as time expired in the first half.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

No real goats this week.

Hit of the Week

Donald Trump's reputation among rich NFL owners', as many of them stood arm-linked-in-arm with their players before and during the national anthem.

Breakthrough Performance

DeShaun Watson, QB - Houston Texans - He almost became the first rookie QB to ever go into New England and win, and if not for a scared decision by Coach Bill O'Brien to not go for first down on fourth - instead kicking a field goal and giving Tom Brady back the ball - he might have accomplished it.  He still finished with 301 yards passing and 41 yards rushing in a 36-33 defeat.

Finally

Carson Palmer, QB - Arizona Cardinals - After the first two games, most people had written Palmer off for dead.  However, against the Dallas Cowboys, he had a phenomenal first half, and finished the game 29-48 for 385 with 2 touchdowns.  Welcome back Carson Palmer.

Impact Injury

Bryan Bulaga, T - Green Bay Packers.  The rock of the Packers offensive line went out of the game with an injury and didn't return.  If he is out for a number of games, expect Aaron Rodgers to take a bit more of a beating than usual.

Team Rising

Jacksonville Jaguars - By thumping the Ravens the way they did, people are starting to remember, and perhaps the team will as well, that they do have some serious talent.

Team Falling

Oakland Raiders - Yes they are still 2-1, but the offense has not shown up in either of the last two games.  Since their defense outside of Khalil Mack isn't stellar, this is discouraging for Raiders fans.

Best Teams

(All undefeated teams will be ranked ahead of all others until all teams have at least 1 loss, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think is best, regardless of record.)

1. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. New England Patriots

4. Minnesota Vikings

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. New York Giants

31. San Francisco 49ers

30. Cincinnati Bengals

29. Los Angeles Chargers

28. Cleveland Browns

Middle Teams

15. Jacksonville Jaguars

16. Los Angeles Rams

17. Buffalo Bills

18. Baltimore Ravens

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4. Carolina Panthers v. New England Patriots - One of two really big inter-conference games this week as both teams enter 2-1.  Much more at stake for the Panthers who are on the road, but will have to keep up with the Falcons and fend off the Buccaneers in the NFC South.

3. Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings - The winner takes the lead in the NFC north (along with Green Bay if the Packers win Thursday).  This may not be the best division in football, but top-to-bottom this could be the closest division in the NFL.

2. Washington Racists v. Kansas City Chiefs - Not because of all the Native American themes, logos, clothing and other paraphernalia that will be all over this Monday night clash, but because Washington looks like they could be a very good team, and to prove it all they have to do is beat the team that has looked the best through the first 3 weeks.

1. Las Vegas Raiders v. Denver Broncos - One of these teams could conceivably fall 2 games behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.  Should be a tough, good game.

Trivia

Since I have not written after the first two weeks of NFL games, so you get two trivia questions today - although they are related.

By starting this year, Tom Brady is one of two NFL Quarterbacks to have started for 15 years all for only one team.  Who is the other?

Tom Brady is also one of only 2 players in the four major North American sports (baseball, basketball, football, hockey) to play 18 years, all under only one head coach.  Who is the other?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

No review this week

Trivia Answer

No answer as of yet.  Tune in next week.

Are you Ready for some Football?!

It is that time of the year again, time for the start of college football.  We have already had a fascinating start to the season with 6 ranked teams losing (and a record-breaking 7th to fall tonight, as FSU and Ole Miss - two ranked teams - faceoff in Orlando).  What would the start of college football be without a preseason All-American list? Once again, I am here to give you my preseason All-Americans. As usual, there will be more than 11 on each side, to account for the different types of formations (spread, three receiver set, 4-3, 3-4, etc). I explain some of my picks, while others I do not. Why? Because I can.  (Starters in capitals).

Offense

QB - DESHAUN WATSON, Clemson; Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech; Greg Ward, Jr.,  Houston  - Watson is one of the easiest selections on this list.  Mahomes might be the biggest and strongest quarterback that Kliff Kingsbury has ever had at Texas Tech and Greg Ward, Jr. is the best quarterback nobody (except Florida State) has heard of.

RB - LEONARD FOURNETTE, LSU; CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, Stanford; Dalvin Cook, Florida State; Nick Chubb, Georgia; Samaje Perine, Oklahoma - The returning talent of this group is absolutely astounding.  Any of these five could be the load-carrying feature on this all-star team.  I start McCaffrey because he blocks, and catches better than Cook.

WR - JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, USC; MIKE WILLIAMS, Clemson; Christian Kirk, Texas A & M; Calvin Ridley, Alabama; Corey Davis, Western Michigan - Nowhere near the names of the other positions (especially running back), but this is an exciting group of receivers.  Kirk is a threat to score every single time he touches the football.

TE - O.J. HOWARD, Alabama; Jake Butt, Michigan - Howard makes his third straight appearance on this list.  Although Butt will likely have better stats because of the overall talent of the skill positions at Alabama, Howard is a beast.

OL - CAM ROBINSON, Alabama (T); RODERICK JOHNSON, FSU (T); PAT ELFLEIN, Ohio State (C); DAN FEENEY, Indiana (G);  DORIAN JOHNSON, Pittsburgh (G); Zach Banner, USC; Conor McDermott, USC; Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame - Elflein returns from last year's All-American team, and Feeney is one reason why Jordan Howard was such an effective runner at Indiana last year.  Robinson and Johnson are the prototypical college star tackles.

Defense

DE - MYLES GARRETT, Texas A & M; JONATHAN ALLEN, Alabama; Charles Harris, Missouri - Between Garrett and Allen, we could see 50+ tackles for loss this  year.  Harris completes the SEC trifecta on the outside of the line.

DT - MALIK MCDOWELL, Michigan State; CARLOS WATKINS, Clemson; Lowell Lotulelei, Utah - Not just big space eaters, McDowell and Watkins both make plays from the interior of the defense.

LB - RAEKWON MCMILLAN, Ohio State, REUBEN FOSTER, Alabama; DEVONTE FIELDS, Louisville; Anthoney Walker, Northwestern; Jabrill Peppers, Michigan; Tim Williams, Alabama - With McMillan on the field, you better diversify your plays, bitches.  Foster is a tackling machine, and Fields is the type of playmaker that has moved Louisville into the upper echelon of college football programs.

CB - DESMOND KING, Iowa; JOURDAN LEWIS, Michigan; Jalen Tabor, Florida - Desmond King won the Jim Thorpe award as the nation's best defensive back last year, with 8 interceptions.  Lewis had 20 passes defensed.  Tabor is the second consecutive Jalen to make this list.

S - DERWIN JAMES, Florida State; BUDDA BAKER, Washington; Jamal Adams, LSU - JAMES is the heir apparent to Jaylen Ramsey, while Baker returns after a phenomenal year last year for the Huskies.

Special Teams

K - ANDY PHILLIPS, Utah - Phillips was on the team last year (behind Aguayo) for no reason that I just thought we should have three kickers on the team (kickers means kickers and punters).

P - JK SCOTT, Alabama - A booming punter who grew 1 1/2 inches this offseason.

KR/PR - EVAN BERRY, Tennessee - Berry led the nation in kickoff return average last  year, beating second place by almost 5 whole yards per return.  No backups needed because the two Christians can also return very well (McCaffrey and Kirk - not a religious reference).