Picks of the Week

So, the previous week wasn't the regression from my 13-2 week, but last week really was.  Could have been a lot worse if any of the 3 ties broke in the other direction.  Yes, 3 ties.  Ridiculous.  But, gotta bounce back, so I have given serious thought to the picks this week.  Let's see how that goes.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I didn't actually want to pick the Steelers on Thursday, but somehow, just sticking to the gambling rules, home team on a short week, actually worked!!!

Miami Dolphins + 1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs (in Frankfurt, Germany)

This pick actually makes no sense, as both offenses are dynamic (1st in the Dolphins, and 4th for the Chiefs), but the Chiefs have s sturdier defense (3rd overall, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in passing).  But, I just think the Jalen Ramsey addition is going to jump start Miami after his interception last week.

Chicago Bears + 9 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Saits win easily, but I just cannot give up almost double digits and be happy watching the game.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Every fiber of my being says the Rams take this; but people lose going against the gambling rules.  We have not had a west coast team traveling east and playing in the early slot in a long time.  Gotta take the Packers.

Washington Commanders +3 at New England Patriots

Even with Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington was 29th in pass defense.  Although the Patriots have played tough recently, the Commanders won't need a pass rush to annoy Mac Jones.

Houston Texans -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston is 11th in pass offense whereas Tampa Bay is 28th in pass defense.  Expect a big game from C.J. Stroud in bouncing back from last week's loss to the Panthers.

Cleveland Browns -12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Double digits is a tough spread in the NFL, buta rookie quarterback making his first start for a team that seems like they have clearly given up this season.  Plus, DeShaun Watson's return could spark a talented, but underachieving pass offense.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The Ravens are playing amazingly right now, and their defense will be the difference in this game.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team, traveling east, and playing in the early slot - which are historically sure losers against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

It would be that kind of year for the Bears to have the Panthers win 2 games in a row.  But, I don't think so.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

Two dumpster fires going head-to-head.  Remind me to miss this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The passing games are what is going to decide this game.  The Eagles are 26th in pass defense, and although the Cowboys are 4th, they are currently playing without any cornerbacks (ok, slight hyperbole).  Eagles because they are home.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions, so much so that I am taking the team that is the 31st ranked offense and 28th ranked defense, and giving points to the Bills.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at New York Jets

Seriously - do you actually believe that the Jets have the best record here?  (They do!)  But, the league's worst pass defense has nothing to fear in the 31st ranked passing offense, so I'll take the team that scores.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

I don't like any of these games for the Big Bet.  My other thoughts were taking the Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston.  But, just gonna bet against the BYU quarterback in his first start.  (That's Jaren Hall, not Zach Wilson, but also applicable!!!)

Last Week's Record:  5-8-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  64-51-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($230)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,045 

Picks of the Week

 

A winning week, but just 2 plays away from a HUGE week, as the Big Bet pushed, and the Patriots covered on a last-minute punt return.    UGH!!!  But, I will take a winning week for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Detroit Lions +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. New England

Home teams on short weeks cover just over 2/3rds of the time, and that is exactly what happened here!  A Micah Parsons unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which directly led to a Giant touchdown with 12 seconds left is the only thing that kept this from being a sweep!

New York Jets -7 v. Chicago Bears

A lack of Justin Fields, and a lack of Zach Wilson, wins this for the Jets.  And let's be straight - Justin Fields SHOULD NOT play!

Denver Broncos -1 at Carolina Panthers

In a captivating 22nd overall offense versus 32nd overall offense, I'll take the 2nd ranked defense.  Plus, Denver is in the Mountain Time Zone, not the Pacific, so the 1:00 start time doesn't worry me as much.

 

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

Houston Texans +14 at Miami Dolphins

Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give up at the start of an NFL game.  Houston with a backdoor cover, maybe?

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, this Bengals team is a pass-first, run-second offense (4th in the NFL, 28th in the NFL respectively).  But, at least the threat of Joe Mixon could slow down a safety every now and then.  Now, with no Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow is going to have to do it all, likely without J'Marr Chase.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is largely a pick on emotion.  Not my emotion, but picking on Cleveland's emotion.  This might be Jacoby Brissett's last start as DeShaun Watson is due back, and he is coming off a 324 yard, 3 touchdown game.  Brissett's audition for a team for next year goes well.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is just a gut bet as statistically these teams are very similar (Baltimore 14th total offense and 16th total defense; Jacksonville 8th total offense and19th total defense), except in scoring.  Baltimore scores just enough to cover - 27-20.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Arizona Cardinals

In this game of mediocrity, I will take points at home, especially with Kyler Murray returning.  Well, that was my initial thought, but then I remembered that Arizona played on Monday night, so the Chargers it is.  Stay with the rules and you cannot overthink these things.  Or can I?  Ugh!

Las Vegas Raiders +4 at Seattle Seahawks

The Raiders are riding the high of last week's overtime victory over the Broncos, and continue on an upward trajectory to the 15th pick in the draft.

New Orleans Saints +9 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco wins this, but on a short week it is closer than it ordinarily would be.

Los Angeles Rams +15 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Wow how the Super Bowl Champs have fallen.  15 1/2 POINTS?!!!  Seriously?  Kansas City jumps out early only to have a late letdown to win 35-24.

Philadelphia -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is averaging 222.3 passing yards a game.  Philadelphia is averaging 228.1, and they have a better running game and defense.

Pittsburgh +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger is still awaiting his first passing touchdown, and Kenny Pickett has started to play a little better the last couple of games.  Not great, but better.

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

I seriously don't like any of these that much.  I considered Denver, because I think they will win, but I don't want to take a road favorite, even if only 1 point.  I thought about Tennessee as Cincinnati is without Joe Mixon, but Cincinnati beat Tennessee at Tennessee last year while giving up 1,400 sacks in the game.  So, I'll take the Commanders at home.

Last Week's Record:  7-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  79-77-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $150

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($700)

Picks of the Week

 So last week was my worst week of the year.  Not only did I fall under .500, but I lost the big bet - a big bet that I even wrote was a horrible pick at the time I made it.  Perhaps sometimes I should listen to myself.  Anyway, perhaps a kick-start of a win on Thursday night can bring me out of the red for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Arizaona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week.  This was, finally, a great football game on Thursday night.  Week 1's Buffalo-Los Angeles matchup was a great game by the Bills, but not the Rams, and it was in Week 1, meaning not a short week.  Problem is, we will not get too many games on Thursday nights like this Arizona victory.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

When teams do not score a lot of points (Indianapolis 17.2 per game and Tennessee 19.2 per game), I am going to want to take the points in the spread.  Plus, Matt Ryan is second in passing yards whereas Tennessee's defense is last in the NFL in pass defense.  This is a tough pick because Derrick Henry could have a huge game against Indianapolis' 20th ranked rush defense.

New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the 5-1 Giants are underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.  Although I feel that New York's 5-1 record is not truly indicative of how average a team they are, they seem to come through when it matters most.  Plus, they are tied for 7th in scoring defense.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thirteen points in the NFL, on the road, in an intra-divisional game is A LOT of points.  I don't care if they did just trade Christian McCaffrey.  

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

So, did you know that Green Bay only averages 1 passing yard a game more than Washingon?  Sounds crazy, right?  Well, that changes as the Packers have the number 1 passing defense in the NFL, and Washington cannot run very well (24th in the NFL).  Of course, Brian Robinson is back and he looks lively.  So, you know what?  I am going to take the points, and expect a Taylor Heinicke bump.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Honestly, this line looks a little high.  It should be about 4 1/2 in my estimation, but I am not an actuary (and THOSE people are the smartest people on the planet.)  Still, I am going to give the points for two reasons:  (1) Cincinati is 9th in passing offense and Atlanta is 31st in passing defense; and (2) Cincinnati is 3rd in third down percentage offense and Atlanta is 30th in third down percentage defense.  Frankly, you can score a lot of points if the other team cannot stop you on third-down.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Our third consecutive 6 1/2 point spread, and trust me, I hate giving points on all three of the games.  But, I am going to do it, most reluctantly on this game and here is why.  Rushing.  But Pepster, Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL led by Nick Chubb, with some Kareem Hunt thrown in.  Correct, they do.  But, Baltimore is 8th in rushing defense, and could slow down the Browns' runners, some.  And, even with J.K. Dobbins out, Kenyan Drake is averaging more yards per carry than Nick Chubb.  Plus, Lamar Jackson is the 4th leading rusher in the NFL himself.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. New York Jets

This pick is amazingly stupid, except there is a reason the spread is only 1 1/2.  First, the Broncos only give up 16 points per game.  Second, the Jets are travelling to altitude.  Third, is it possible that Wilson being out is the ultimate addition-by-subtraction?  Do the Broncos get a Brett Rypien/Josh Johnson bump?  I say yes.  Or even if they don't, Jets win 10-9.  Denver did play Monday night, which does not bode well for this pick, but Russell Wilson will not play today, and I think that makes the difference.

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the most disappointing team in the NFL right now, and, if they really want to make the playoffs, they have to start winning somewhere.  This looks like the right spot for that.  Easy pickings.  But, we know that sometimes the obvious bet isn't the smartest play.  Houston - as is typical in Lovie Smith-led teams - doesn't give up many points (13th in the league), and if they can hold true to that form today, they will win the bet, if not the game.  Josh Jacobs has himself a game, but the Raiders only win 27-21 in a backdoor cover (which I think is my first backdoor cover prediction this season.)

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has been playing great football, and Kenneth Walker is an emerging star at running back, but the Chargers have won 3 in a row, doing it primarily by passing the ball with the 3rd best passing offense in football.  AND, Just Herbert gets Keenan Allen back from injury after having not played since week 1.  I hate this pick because the Chargers played Monday night, but Keenan Allen didn't, so I will keep it.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at San Francisco 49ers

Honestly, I am picking the Chiefs because I believe there will be a over-exaggeration of the impacts on the Christian McCaffrey trade.  First, San Francisco can always run the ball, no matter the running back. Second, more passes to McCaffrey means a few less to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.  Third, that just seems to be the way the NFL works.  Plus, with San Francisco's expected increased reliance on their running game, Kansas City has the defense (4th in the NFL in rushing defense) to try and combat it.  Now, next week's game for the 49ers with a full week of practice for McCaffrey may be a whole different matter.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I hate overexaggerating the effects of one player, or one action, or just one of anything.  But, I am going to do it here.  Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa returns, and means the world to the Dolphins and their 2nd ranked passing offense - which now gets the Steelers and their 30th ranked passing defense.

New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears

I have no faith that the Bears can score meaningful points against anyone, much less a Bill Belichick coached team.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

More points than I want to give up for a big bet, but worth it in this case, I think.  Dallas's defense has been amazing, and now the offense can be as well.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  45-44-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($440)

Picks of the Week

As bad as November was, I will take a small winning week to start December.  Here's hoping that can continue and grow throughout the month.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

In the battle of the teams not good enough to beat Detroit, Minnesota just didn't collaps enough at the end.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Cleveland Browns

In a game that should be close, and be won by the running game (Baltimore and Cleveland tied for 3rd in rushing offense, Baltimore tied for 1st in rushing defense), I'll take the points.

Washington Football Team +4 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Washington's defense is starting to live up to how we thought they would play, after being a total farce to start the season.  Given that scenario, I'll also take the points, especially at home.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are 1-4 since their bye, and the Chiefs are not only on a 5 game winning streak, they are also starting to look like a potential Super Bowl team.  Lots points in a rivalry game, but I'll gladly give them here.

Houston Texans +9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seatlle has the 31st ranked defense, whereas Houston is not much better (29th).  Just taking the points here, honestly.

Tennessee Titans -8 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

The noise coming out of Jacksonville regarding the players disdain for Urban Meyer is deafening.  Too bad this didn't come out before USC and Notre Dame made coaching hires.

New Orleans Saints -5 1/2 at New York Jets

I honestly cannot figure out this game.  Picking New Orleans simply because I am hoping Alvin Kamara comes back and makes a huge difference.  Otherwise, I would stay away from this game.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Another tough game to select.  Taking Carolina on thebasis of their defense (2nd in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 5th in 3rd down percentage defense, and 7th in scoring defense.)

Detroit Lions + 11 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Detroit has played a lot of tough, close games.  No reason to think they cannot do that here also.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Giants

Mike Glennon.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has overwhelmingly relied upon the rush this season.  Cincinnati is 4th in rushing defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

The Jeckyll and Hyde Bills strike again, although even in wins they seem to struggle recently (except against the Jets.)

Chicago Bears +11 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Honestly, if this spread was 9 1/2 I would take the Packers.  Chicago back-door covers.

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Definitely the game of the week.  A great Monday night affair.  Sony Michel makes a ton of difference for the Rams, bolstering their 6th ranked offense (but 23rd in rushing).  Arizona is rolling, but not sure we can learn much from playing the Bears last week.

Big Bet

Washington Football Team +4 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Washington's defense is starting to live up to how we thought they would play, after being a total farce to start the season.  Given that scenario, I'll also take the points, especially at home.

I also thought about taking Baltimore.

Bye Week:  Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  100-94

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $290

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($910) 

Picks of the Week

So I took a big old fashioned hammering last week, but I don't care.  Why is that?  Because the Chicago Bears clinched the NFC North, knocked the Packers out of the playoffs, and moved to within 1 game of having a first round playoff bye.  I will take that!  Now, I just have to make up for the losses this week!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -11 v. Washington Racists
I do not like this spread, but I do like taking the home team on short weeks.  Washington's offensive line is mightily banged up, so I expect Jurrell Casey to have a monster game along the defensive line.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 v. Baltimore Ravens
Once again taking the home team on a short week.  I just don't think that Baltimore has enough offense to keep up with the Chargers, despite the fact that they have more than enough defense (1st overall, 1st in points allowed, 3rd in passing defense ad 3rd in rushing defense).  Los Angeles has too many weapons, starting with Philip Rivers.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.

Cleveland Browns -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Because why not?  The Browns have played some exciting football, and Cincinnati has not, at least not with Jeff Driskel at quarterback.  Cleveland's porous defense will not be as exposed going against Jeff Driskel.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Would you believe it if I told you that Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the 28th rushing attack in the league?  Of course you would - they are horrible.  Being a one-dimensional offense is going to allow the Cowboys front seven to tee off on Winston.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Detroit Lions
The Lions literally don't do anything well.  Minnesota's offense has been spectacular since they fired OC Mike DeFilippo.  Thanks for mentioning this last week Barsky.

New York Giants +9 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This spread is way too big to give to a team that has shown some life as of late.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Is the Cody Kessler era over yet?

Buffalo Bills +12 1/2 at New England Patriots
The one thing Blake Bortles taught us last year is that a quarterback than knows how to scramble can create havoc with the Patriots defense.

New York Jets +3 v. Green Bay Packers
The Jets have actually been playing fairly well since Sam Darnold's return.  They lost by a touchdown last week to a much better Houston Texans team, and they are at home against the Packers.  I will take the points.

Houston Texans +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Houston's defense.  Yes, it seems like the magic that is Nick Foles has returned, but the Rams defense has not been playing particularly well this week.  Houston's is.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I already have enough road favorites, so why not take another.  A lot at stake for the Bears in this game as they have the opportunity to secure a first round playoff bye with two wins (and a Rams loss).

Arizona Cardinals +14 v. Los Angeles Rams
So, it looks the Rams will actually get home field advantage and nothing about Arizona's play says they should stay in this game.  So, perhaps they lose by 13.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
In Russell Wilson we trust and simply, Seattle needs this win more than Kansas City does.  Seattle keeps Kansas City's possessions low with an effective running game and takes a step closer to the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
At this stage, New Orleans can practically coast into the playoffs.  Of course they want to guarantee home field for the entire playoffs, which they can do with one win or one Rams loss and one Bears loss, but that doesn't mean the Saints aren't already looking ahead.  Steelers keep this one close.

Denver Broncos -3 at Oakland Raiders
Might as well end the week with another road favorite.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.
I hate picking road teams for the Big Bet, especially road favorites, but nobody even knows who is quarterbacking for the Panthers.  And, perhaps Atlanta re-discovered its offense last week.

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  111-103-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($765)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($185)