NFL Mid-Season Review

So the NFL has reached its mid-season.  Nine of the eighteen weeks are complete, and each team has played at least 8 games, and some 9, and 8 1/2 games is halfway through the season.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season, with each team's surprise of the year.  The parenthetical at the end of season rankings was that team's position in the quarter-season review. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-2) This team was 5-0 during the second quarter of the season (and has won 6 games in a row to push to the top of the division.  Although I fully expect the Bills to end up here at the end of the year, New England is a strong contender for the playoffs,  The big surprise is that this team is 8th in scoring without a significant contribution from Trayveon Henderson, who, although the team's leading rusher with 283 yards, has only 13 more rushing yards than Drake Maye.

Buffalo Bills (6-2) A two-game losing streak - to New England and Atlanta - going into their bye dismantled what looked like an AFC juggernaut.  Their biggest surprise is that this team is middle-of-the-pack in passing offense (14th).  

Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins are 2-7 and sit in third place.  The biggest surprise is that they are not in last.

New York Jets (1-7)

Awful.  The biggest surprise is that they have not started trading veterans (Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams) yet.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Mike Tomlin must be that good of a coach (that we knew), but this is his best job yet.  That is because the surprise is that the Steelers are in first place while being ranked 30th in offense and defense.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Is this the scariest 3-5 team in NFL history?  injuries hurt, but the biggest surprise is how poor this defense is (27th overall).

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

The Joe Burrow injury is devastating.  Surprise is that Joe Flacco is making this team exciting.

Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Among the worst teams in the league, even with the second-best defense in the NFL.  That should have accounted for 1 or 2 more wins.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

They have played exceptionally well this year.  And are just a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers away from being 8-1.  Jonathan Taylor's success isn't a surprise, so his candidacy for MVP is understandable, but Daniel Jones being a top candidate?  Wow.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

A 2-2 quarter has flattened out the Jaguars curve, but Jacksonville is currently in playoff position if the season ended today.  The biggest surprise?  A virtually non-existent Brian Thomas, Jr. who has 30 receptions, only 5 more than Parker Washington.

 

Houston Texans (3-5)

Still one of the most disappointing teams in the whole league.  Biggest surprise - Woody Marks.  Not that he is surprising with his play, but the surprise is that the Texans have had to resort to Woody Marks.

Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Well, the are no longer winless!  The surprise is Chimere Dike, who is developing into a solid wide receiver, and is already one of the best kick returners in the NFL.  He has almost 350 more yards in kickoff returns than the next highest returner, and has the highest per return average as a punt returner.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Broncos went 5-0 in the second quarter, and are solidifying themselves as a Super Bowl candidate.  The surprise, they are doing this with only the 14th-best total offense in the NFL.  If this offense actually gets on track, watch out.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Oh what could've been with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.  The surprise is that they are the second-rated offense without those two bookends!

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

The surprise is that they are third in their division!!!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

No surprise that they are bad, the surprise is that they are only giving the ball to Ashton Jeanty 15 times a game.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

At the quarter mark, I noted the statistical fallacy of the Eagles being 4-0; and they went 2-2 the last quarter.   The biggest surprise?  That the Tush Push was ruled forward progress stopped instead of a fumble against the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)

This defense is really bad, which limits the ceiling on this team, yet they still are buyers at the deadline acquiring Logan Wilson from Cincinnati.  Surprise!!!

Washington Commanders (3-6)

A little regression from last year was to be expected, but not this much!  The surprise is the second injury to Jayden Daniels!!!  Perhaps let the running backs run?!

New York Giants (2-7)

Not a good team, but not as bad as their record.  The surprise is the excitement for Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo!!!  (Who am I kidding, we knew the over-exaggerated excitement for Skattebo was coming!).

.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Went 3-1 the last quarter, but they haven't looked particularly sharp.  A surprise loss to the Panthers could be the difference between a division title and traveling on wildcard weekend.

Detroit Lions (5-3)

This team can look dominating, or disappointing.  I still think they are the class of the division.  Too much firepower.

Chicago Bears (5-3)

Could the Bears be making a run for the playoffs?  The surprise is that despite a lot of negative press coming from Bears fans, his numbers are virtually identical to those of Baker Mayfield, who some people have as an outside-MVP candidate.

Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Their defeat of the Detroit Lions brings this division much closer from top-to-bottom.  The biggest surprise is even the Vikings don't know which JJ McCarthy will show up from quarter-to-quarter:  the one that plays essentially like a first-year starter, or the one that comes-from-behind in the fourth quarter.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

Tampa Bay is playing very consistently, and is 3-1 in each of the first two quarters.  The big surprise is that Richaad White is the leading rusher, despite not having a rusher with over 300 yards on the season.

Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The surprise is that Carolina is 5-4!!!

Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

The inverse of the Carolina Panthers, the surprise is that Atlanta is only 3-5even with the number 3 ranked defense!

New Orleans Saints (1-8)

The surprise is that Alvin Kamara is still on the Saints.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Playing very well.  This organization knows how to find QBs tossed away by other franchises (first Geno Smith, now Sam Darnold).  Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the entire NFL in receiving yards.  Surprising that it looks smart to have traded DK Metcalf!

Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Might actually be the best team in the division.  Surprising that Matt Stafford is an MVP front-runner!

San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

In playoff contention despite running through wide receivers like the Kardashians ... run through wide receivers!

Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

Surprised they haven't pulled the plug on the Kyler Murray Experiment yet.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (8)

2.  Denver Broncos (7-2) (14)

3.  New England Patriots (7-2) (16)

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-2) (1)

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (5)

6.  Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (9)

7.  Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (7)

8.  Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (2)

9.  Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (12)

10.  Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (3)

11.  San Francisco 49ers (6-3) (6)

12.  Detroit Lions (5-3) (4)

13.  Chicago Bears (5-3) (18)

14.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (10)

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (11)

16.  Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (13)

17.  Carolina Panthers (5-4) (29)

18.  Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (17)

19.  Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (22)

20.  Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (23)

21.  Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (19)

22.  Houston Texans (3-5) (24)

23.  Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (20)

24.  Washington Commanders (3-6) (15)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (21)

26.  Cleveland Browns (2-6) (28)

27.  Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (25)

28.  New York Giants (2-7) (26)

29.  Miami Dolphins (2-7) (27)

30.  New Orleans Saints (1-8) (31)

31.  New York Jets (1-8) (30)

32.  Tennessee Titans (1-8) (32)

Biggest Movers:  New England Patriots +13, Denver Broncos +12, Carolina Panthers, +12, Washington Commanders -9, Detroit Lions -8, Los Angeles Chargers -7

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive MVP - Byron Young, Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week - Week 4

 

I need to stop travelling, as it is obviously impacting my pics.  Also out-of-town this weekend, but hopefully we can turn this season around, as last week was horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

I hated this pick (for good reason), but home team on a short week and I hate taking road intra-divisional favorites.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin)

A bad offense (28th) and great defense (6th) in Minnesota versus a horrible offense (30th) AND defense (29th) in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

More than 2 touchdowns?  Just a bit too much for my blood to give up.

Tennessee Titans -+7 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am doing this strictly for the points, but I am concerned that maybe this is what Houston needs to right itself after a bad year plus.  Still taking Tennessee - again just for take the points.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions

When is Cleveland going to give Dillon Gabriel a try?  Should be soon.  But, taking them here because Quinshon Judkins could be great, and because Detroit played Monday night.

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I feel that defensive coordinators have figured out Michael Penix, Jr.  Atlanta's defense is legit so far this year (2nd overall and 1st in pass defense), but Marcos Mariota is a proven veteran.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

Neither of these teams are good, and New England is better at passing the eye test (especially at QB), but 5 1/2 points?  I'll take them.

New York Giants +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This may seem unorthodox, but hear me out here:  First, maybe the Giants get a bit of a jolt from Jaxson Dart; and second, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east to play in the 1:00 window.  I will take the Giants, reluctantly.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Ben Johnson got a taste of winning last week, and although this will not be easy with 3 more starters out for the Bears, most of their playmakers on offense will be there, plus the get a look at rookie Ozzy Trapilo on the offensive line replacing Darnell Wright.  Despite a 1-2 start, Chicago is 9th in scoring offense, and 4th in third-down conversions.  That should be enough.

 

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy returns.  That has to be enough to put the Niners over the top.  Especially after starting 3-0.  Can they go 4-0?  I think they win outright.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Colts are a surprise 3-0, for sure, but unlike Philly their stats back it up.  Number 1 total offense (4th passing/3rd rushing) and number 5 total defens (8th passing/7th rushing).  They may not get to 4-0, but they very well should cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about the way they have played this year tells me that KC can keep this close, except that Baltimore has the 31st total defense (31st passing and 30th rushing), and they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

The talent differential in this game is enormous.  And we saw last week is that Dallas is BAD!

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

This game is just awful.  Horrible.  Give me points.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I am super-leery of giving up more than a touchdown, but Cincy has the worst total offense in the NFL (27th in passing and 32nd in rushing), AND their defense stinks.  Denver, despite being 1-2, may have started to click this season despite losses the last two weeks.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

I looked at Chicago (on the road and too many injuries), Green Bay (giving up too many points), and Washington Commanders.  I am going to take the Buccaneers to win outright on the road, although the 3 1/2 points looks pretty good.

Last Week Record:  5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  21-27

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-2

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($875)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,050) 

Picks of the Week

 

As expected, last week was a cluster - A1 certified cluster.  But what to expect when we don't even know who will be playing or for how long half the time.  I will say BOOO to the Dallas Cowboys for playing Trey Lance the entire game, keeping Cooper Rush from hitting a $250,000 bonus, and a big kudos to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who threw one last pass to Mike Evans securing 1,000 yards on the season, and a $3 million bonus.  

It's playoff time, so hopefully it is time to use everything we learned this year to make some real money!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 at Houston Texans

The Chargers defense is the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL.  Houston's defense is no slouch either, finishing 6th against the pass and 7th in total defense.  But, J.K. Dobbins is expected to return, and that can only open up things for a Justin Herbert-led passing offense that has discovered a true weapon in Ladd McConkey.

Los Angeles Chargers -155 at Houston Texans (Bet $155 to win $100)

If I am willing to pick the Chargers against the spread on the road, then -155 is not enough of a change to warrant a hedge bet and taking Houston.  If it was -180 or something, then I might have thought about it, but not for this.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans OVER 41 1/2

The defenses are too good for this to be a shootout, but this line is low  Simething like 27-20 or 27-17 seems right to me.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This line may seem really high for an intradivisional game in which the teams split during the regular season, but the Steelers that defeated the Ravens 18-16 in week 11 are not the same Steelers that Baltimore decimated 34-17 in Week16, or even the ones that are playing now.

Baltimore Ravens -550 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $550 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 1st against the run, which should minimize what little strength on offense the Steelers have (11th in rushing/27th in passing).  The Ravens on offense are the best rushing team in the NFL averaging over 187 yards per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 1/2

Baltimore will have over 30 themselves behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.  Yes, losing Zay Flowers hurts, but that just means an increase in two-tight end sets with Isaiah Likely joining Mark Andrews, and that is dangerous to defenses, especially in short yardage situations.

Buffalo Bills -8 v. Denver Broncos

I have seen this line as high as 9 1/2, so if I can take 8 I will.  This is the end of a Cinderella-like run for Denver this year, and although their future could be bright with some more offensive weapons, this isn't their year.

Buffalo Bills -425 v. Denver Broncos (Bet $425 to win $100)

Buffalo is just better, and they will win this game.  So, have to take them in the money line - no doubts.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills OVER 47 1/2

Not including last week's game where Buffalo rested everybody, they have scored on their own 40, 24, 48, 42, 35, 30,30,30 31, and 34 in their previous 10 games.  Sure looks like a good over bet to me as all we will need is Denver to score SOMETHING.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Philadelphia Eagles -240 (Bet $240 to win $100)

I hate not having some money line to hedge my bets against the favorites (and yes, the Chargers are the favorites even though they are the lower seeded team and playing on the road), but I feel that Philly is going to slam Green Bay, so I have to take it.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2

Both teams defenses shoould keep this really low scoring, and I do not expect Green bay to contribute much toward the total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Washington Commanders

Great season by Washington, led by the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (it should be Brock Bowers, but I digress).  Baker Mayfield has this Bucs offense humming along, as they are 4th in scoring, 4th in rushing, 3rd in passing, 3rd in total offense and 1st in 3rd down percentage.  Compare that to Washingon's defense which is 3rd against the pass, but 30th against the run, 11th in total defense, and 18th in scoring defense.  Daniels will make plays to keep the Commanders in the game, but Tampa should be too much.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -160 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $160 to win $100)

This might ordinarily be one of the games where I would hedge a bet, but the spread just isn't big enough to do that.  Bucky Irving will have a big game, keeping the Commanders offense off the field.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 50 1/2

If you can't take the under on the highest O/U on the board, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

In a game moved to Glendale because of the massive fires in Los Angeles and Los Angeles County, you would think the Rams would lose their home-field advantage, which they earned by winning their division - even though Minnesota had a better record.  But, everybody is going to be cheering for the Rams, securing their "home field".  Also, they have a lot to play for on behalf of all of LA (as do the Chargers).  I look a lot at the Week 8 game in which the Rams won 30-20 in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp's first games back from injury.

Los Angeles Rams +125 v. Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $125)

If I think an underdog is going to win outright, then I absolutely am going to take them for the money line.  

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Big Bets:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Green Bay is done for this year.  The Bears lost last week was a symptom that this is not the same team as earlier in the season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Lots of offensive firepower is hard to shut down for 60 minutes.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-128-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-9

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($815)

Picks of the Week

Well, not a great start to the NFL season, but finished in the black in Week 1, and I will take that every week.  Plus, I got a good start to week 2 by ignoring the standard betting rules, who knew?  I didn't think that Tua would be conucssed, but I did think Buffalo would roam all over the Dolphins.  Let's see if I can keep that momentum up!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, we are supposed to take the home team on a short week, but Buffalo had beated Miami 13 out of 15 times, and with Dolphins' running backs Raheem Mostert (out) and Devan Achane (questionable) injured, who is going to run the ball for the Dolpins?

New Orleans Saints +6 at Dallas Cowboys

Caution - this is likely an overreaction to Week 1, where New Orleans had the best peformance of any team.  But, maybe they are better than we thought and they can keep this one close?  Dallas is going to have problems running the ball this year, so I think the Saints could cover.

Baltimore Ravens - 8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The way the Ravens played in week 1, they beat alomost everyone not named Kansas City.  That and with thh Raiders being in the Pacific time zone and travelling east for the 1:00 game, I'll take Baltimore, even though I would have liked this spread to be 6 1/2 points.

Washington Commanders -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

Jayden Daniels' potential makes this game tolerable.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I HATE this bet.  HATE IT, HATE IT, HATE IT!  But, I already violated the betting rule on Thursday by taking the visiting team on a short week, no way I can do it twice.  This rule is always take the east coast team in the 1:00 time slot when playing a Pacific coast team traveling east.

Indianapolis Coltes -2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

My first road favorite, UGH!  But, we know what we are getting with Anthony Richardson.  Some mediocre throws, a low completion percentage, but some WOW plays.  We also know what we are getting with the Packers - Malik Willis!

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers placed Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve, but as we saw last week, Jordan Mason is more than capable of stepping into the lead back roll.  Minnesota played really well last week, and Sam Darnold looked GREAT!  But, that San Francisco defense is something else.  Look ma, a second straight road favorite.  It's a good thing Minnesota is only in the central time zone.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Cleveland Browns

Both teams looked rather inept offensively last week.  The difference is that Jacksonville has players that are more likely to show last week was a fluke.

New England Patriots +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Taking an east coast home underdog playing a Pacific time zone team, YES PLEASE!  But, that makes three this week, so odds are I lose one of them - probably Carolina.

Tennessee Titans +4 v. New York Jets

Jordan Mason and the San Francisco 49ers just ran through the supposedly vaunted Jets defensive front 7.  I bet Tennessee wishes they still had Derrick Henry!  That being said, the Jets offense did not look so great, either, and the Titans defense looked strong.  Granted, it was against the Bears inept offense, but part of their ineptness was the defense played by Tennessee.  I don't know if they will win outright, but this game should be close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are REALLY, REALLY good.  But, don't underestimate Tampa Bay.  I feel like Baker Mayfield has been underestimated his whole career and always rises to the challenge.  Eight points is way too high of a line for this game.

Los Angeles Rams pick 'em at Arizona Cardinals

Vegas has this one right in that this game could go either way.  Both defenses were bad last week, but the Rams offense seems smoother, as Arizona still is trying to incorporate rookie Marvin Harrison, Jr.  For that reason, I'll take Arizona.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver cannot play as bad as they did last week, right?  I do believe, however, that Pittsburgh can.  Steelers 21-20.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City already looks in mid-season form.  J'Marr Chase has called off contract extension talks, meaning it is likely he hits free agency.

Houston Texans -6 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears offense looked atrocious.  At least their defense looked amazing.  But, Houston is much better than Tennessee offensively, so I don't think this is going to be close.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins is notoriously bad in prime time games, and he was already bad last week.  When do the "Michael Penix, Jr." chants start?  Philly looked good last week.

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are REALLY, REALLY good.  But, don't underestimate Tampa Bay.  I feel like Baker Mayfield has been underestimated his whole career and always rises to the challenge.  Eight points is way too high of a line for this game.

The bet here should be Houston, but I cannot do that to myself.  I will take 8 points, and take them happily.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  8-7-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $180

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $180

Picks of the Week - Wilcard Weekend!!!

 

Ended the season with a great 10-6 record, meaning my overall record for the regualar season is GREAT at 30 games over .500!  I am ridiculously satisfied with this season to date.  My only hope is to keep rolling through the playoffs!  Let's see how that goes!!  And, just as a reminder, the Chicago Bears have the #1 overall pick!!!  Open for business!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -2 at Houston Texans

This Browns defense finished the season 1st overall, 1st in 3rd down percentage, and 1st against the pass - which is Houston's offensive strength.  And, with the resurgence of Joe Flacco, especially to Amari Cooper, I am not sure the 23rd ranked pass defense can stop Cleveland.  Plus, the Browns just annihilated the Texans 36-22 in Houston on week 16 (and I say annihilate because that game was not even that close.  And sure, Davis Mills and Case Keenum quarterbacked Houston instead of C.J. Stroud, but that defense will be the same.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2

Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.  

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The winner of this game is simply ... the WEATHER.  It will be sub-zero cold, literally.  Probably not good enough weather to re-energize either of these stagnant offenses, but Miami just has too many injuries, especially along its O-line (Conner Williams) and D-Line (Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips), and other players playing - but hobbled.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43 1/2

Likely lots of running which eats up the clock, especially on long scoring drives.  I expect Isaiah Pacheco to have a monster game.

Buffalo Bills -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This might be Mike Tomlin's best coaching job to guide this team into the playoffs. Buffalo is on a roll haveing won 5 in a row, and Pittsburgh's defense, which was 22nd overall, 19th against the rush, and 17th against the pass - with T.J. Watt - is not going to stop Buffalo without him.  Another game where the weather will be a challenge, but I expect Buffalo to win handily.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills OVER 33 1/2

Yes, you read that correctly, 33 1/2.  That is a super-low over/under because of the weather, but I submit, bad weather helps scoring sometimes, with a fumble here, a slipping defender there.  Gotta take the over on this one.

Green Bay Packers +7 at Dallaw Cowboys

This Dallas team has been up-and-down and face a surprising Green Bay Packers team that is much, much better with Aaron Jones in the lineup.  I expect the Cowboys to advance, but it should be a tight one.

 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys OVER 50 1/2

This game could be a shootout - and that is what I am betting.'

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

Would you want to disappoint Dan Campbell with a first-round playoff loss?  Yeah, me either.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions OVER 51 1/2

This is the 5th-highest scoring offense (Detroit) versus the 8th-highest scoring offense (Los Angeles), with both teams in the bottom third in scoring defense.  This means ... POINTS!!!

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants.  Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense.  Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 43 1/2

Tampa is not going to give up a lot of points to Philadelphia (maybe 10 or 14), and likely won't score enough to push this to the over.

Big Bet I:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants.  Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense.  Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield has played big in the playoffs before, and I feel that he will come through again!

Big Bet II:

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2

Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.  

I shied away from picking Cleveland as my big bet since they are on the road and giving up points, as opposed to Tampa at home getting points, but I can double that up here by relying on 3 Tds between Njoku and Cooper, plus more from Cleveland.

Record

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  144-114-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,095

Picks of the Week

 

Last week's results were almost the exact opposite as the previous week.  Two weeks ago with 5 to 10 munutes left in the 1:00 games I was basically 9-1, and with a lot of scores changing the outcome in the early games, I lost money.  This week at the 1:00 juncture with a quarter left, I was 1-2, and losing 5 of 6 games.  Thank god for the turnaround as a few games switched, and a strong finish in the p.m. games and on Monday led to a winning record.  Can you say STREAK?!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. New York Jets

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!  Long live Joe Flacco!  I bet the Jets wish they had a veteran like him!

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I initially picked Detroit, and I really, really want to take Detroit here - especially at this number - but this game is also a short week game, so I changed my mind.  Both of these teams are solid to great on both sides of the ball.  The slightest kink in each's armor:  Detroit is 23rd in passing defense going against Dallas' 6th ranked pass offense; Dallas in 19th in rushing defense going against Detroit's 3rd ranked run game.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

This Chicago Bears team is a couple of mismanaged end-of-game coaching from having won 7-in-a row.  I am not saying the deserved to win all of those games, nor would they have if not for poor coaching, but just saying this team is way closer than people think.  If they manage Carolina's first overall pick well, i.e. trading back even 5 to 9 spots for an appropriate package (or even better, trading to 2 or 3, then trading back again!), and they select well in this year's draft (plus extra firsts in 2025 and 2026), they could be set for awhile!

Miami Dolphins +3 at Baltimore Ravens

Both teams played great against good opponents last week, Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore dismantling San Francisco.  I feel that if one of the teams is going to suffer a letdown this week it might be the Ravens, but only because they are playing on a short week, whereas the Dolphins have their regular 7-days between games.  So, this paragraph is what I wrote on Saturday, when I first published this week's picks.  But, my actual pick, when thinking about this and deciding Miami just might be too banged up to deal with Baltimore, my official pick is ...

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

So, I lost an extra half-point by changing my mind, but so be it.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans

Houston, fighting for a playoff spot - and evening a divisional championship - have C.J. Stroud back!

New England +14 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this game, but most of their games have been close.  New England's last few games have been (L7, L10, W3, L6, L3, L4, L4, L3) in the last eight weeks.  This game should be easily within 2 touchdowns.

New York Giants +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

I am torn between two betting rules here:  The Rams are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot (disadvantge) versus the Giants who are playing on a short week (disadvantage).  I will take the Giants because they are getting points, and because Tyrod Taylor is the professional quarterback that can at least keep them settled.

Washington Commanders +13 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Is it bad that I want to select Washington here?  San Francisco is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot AND they are playing on a short week.  I suppose I can just hope Washington can keep it close AND they have been playing much better when Jacoby Brissett has been behind center, which he will do from the start Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles -12 v. Arizona Cardinals

So Philadelphia is playing on a short week, but sometimes a short-week team covers.  This week it will be Philadelphia, as Arizona is hoping for Carolina's third loss to aid them in their quest for the first overall pick, and the subsequent trade haul it could garner from team's that need a QB.  See Bears, Chicago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

Carolina Panthers +4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is missing his first NFL game due to an injury, and although C.J. Beatherd is a legitimate NFL backup and won't panic in the pocket, the Panthers have been playing well, losing by 3 to the Packers last week, defeating the Falcons the week prior, and losing to the Buccaneers by 3 two weeks before that.  Closer than it should be, and Carolina at least covers, if not wins outright.

Indianapolis Colts -4 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pearce has the Raiders playing inspired football lately, but they suffer from the double-whammy of traveling to the Eastern time zone to play in the 1:00 time slot AND they are on a short week.  That might just be too much to overcome.  Gardner Minshew is also hunting for the AFC South title.  Sorry, I just made every Jaguar fan cringe!

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Too bad for Rudolp (Mason) that Christmas is over.  We can all go back to mocking him and not letting him play reindeer games.  (Or at least I hope!)

Las Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Dysfunction, dysfunction, dysfunction - and this has nothing to do with Jarret Stidham.  Even if some of the roster are anti-Russell Wilson, they are not anti-administration screwing with players and the players' money.  I am not talking about benching him for 2 games to protect an off-season trade from injury; I am talking about the revelation that the Broncos came to Wilson after the Broncos defeated the Chiefs and told him to renegotiate his contract downward or he would be benched BACK THEN!

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know that Joe Burrow and most likely J'Marr Chase are not playing.  But, Jake Browning has been playing well (a 98.5 rating compared to Patrick Mahomes' 91.7), and the Chiefs have not been playing that well.  Plus, they are on a short week.  I'll take almost a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

A one-point spread in what is basically a playoff elimination game for the loser of this divisional rivalry.  Lots to digest in this game, as Jaren Hall will be making the start over Nick Mullens, who moved the ball well, but just turned it over too much.  Hall was 8/10 for 101 yards in his first game this year, so there is potentail, especially given his talented skill position players, including Justin Jefferson and Ty Chandler.  Chandler could feast against the NFL's 30th ranked run defense.  And speaking of the Packers' defense, star cornerback Jaire Alexander is suspended and will not dress for talking the field as a captain last week when he was not a captain, and then electing to defend instead of defer when Green Bay won the toss.  He was lucky that the coaching staff had previously expressed to the officials they would defer if they won the toss, so the officials bailed out Alexander, otherwise we could have seen a game where Carolina received the ball with the opening kickoff IN BOTH HALVES!

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

I am riding with team Baker on this one.  I do like Houston, New England, and Chicago here, but I am taking Tampa Bay.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  128-98-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $185

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,585

Picks of the Week

Back on the winning track!  Let's turn this into a streak.  I am in an airport right now leaving in about an hour so no real analysis.  Still gotta get the picks in, though!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -91/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Weird "short week" Thursday game in which both teams have their standard week from playing last Thanksgiving.  I didn't like this pick when it occurred, but I wouldn't have liked it if I picked Seattle either.

Houston Texans -3 v. Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 at New England Patriots

I hate picking a Pacific Time Zone team playing in the 1:00 slot, but the Patriots are awful.  I hate this bet.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Already two road favorites.  This week is not going to be good.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Can Pittsburgh score 6 1/2 points?

Atlanta Falcons -2 at New York Jets

Arthur Smith apparently discovered Bijan Robinson.

Indianapolis Colts -1 at Tennessee Titans

Colts to the playoffs?

Miami Dolphins -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

If I am going to go down the road favorites rabbit hole, let's go down all the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Cleveland Browns

We still don't know who will be playing quarterback for Cleveland.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

It has become trendy to pick Philly because how could they be an underdog at home.  I am going against the trend.

Green Bay Packers +6 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City hasn't been playing particularly well; Green Bay has.

Cincinnati Bengals +9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It is Jake Browning, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points.

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

I like taking home teams, so Green Bay was a consideration here, but I don't want big money against Patrick Mahomes.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  98-73-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,995  

Picks of the Week

 

Another winning week!!!!  I could get use to this.  Hopefully I can keep it moving.  No analysis this week, as I am travelling with an appointment soon this morning, so just going to get this done and hope.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Whoops - Even without Davante Adams!

Chicago Bears +4 v. San Francisco 49ers

I don't like this.  I am only picking the Bears because Matt Nagy is out.

Miami Dolphins +14 at Buffalo Bills

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Carolina Panthers

  

Clevelan Browns -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Soooo tempted to go Pittsburgh here.

Cincinnati Bengals -11 at New York Jets

Really, the Bengals are a double-digit road favorite?  And I am taking them?

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Wouldn's shock me if Detroit snuck in a win here.

Los Angeles Rams -16 at Houston Texans

Jackonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Also my suicide pool pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans on a short week.

Denver Broncos -3 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Will Tua Tagavailoa be a QB for Washington next week.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Hoping that Dak Prescott is starting.

New York Giants +10 at Kansas City Chiefs

Is KC reeling this much?  Tyrann Mathieu said that Kansas City has the most toxic fanbase in the country.  Sounds like he was smoking something toxic.

Big Bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans on a short week.

And, they just aren't that good anyway.

Bye Week:  Baltimore Ravens, Las Vegas Raiders

Last Week's Record:  7-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  59-48

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $190

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  $95

Picks of the Week - Super Bowl Sunday

 

It is Super Bowl Sunday, and that means only one game to pick.  But, it also means absolutely ridiculous prop bets!!!  Trying to finish this season strong by betting on far-and-away the best team in the NFL this year.  Too bad Tampa deprived us of the matchup we all wanted to see - Kansas City versus Green Bay.  But, that is why they actually play the playoff games.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Although, given that it is the Super Bowl, I might pick one regular bet and one prop bet as my "Big Bet".  Who knows, we could go crazy today!

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Chiefs are the best team this year.  easily.  They did play Tampa in the regular season and won 27-24, but that game was not even that close.  Kansas City destroyed them.  Does KC's loss of Eric Fisher concern me?  Yes.  Does Patrick Mahomes' turf toe concern me?  Not as much as we saw Mahomes perform with the turf toe to the tune of 29-38 for 325 yards and 3 TDs.  Does LAurent Duvernay-Tardif opting-out of this season concern me?  Absolutely not because that mad opted out to put his medical degree and knowledge to help out at health care facilities in his hometown.  That is a man.  What should be concerning to Tampa is that they have the 21st ranked passsing defense.  Kansas City also has a 21st ranked defense, but it is against the run and Tampa doesn't run particularly well (T-28th in the NFL).

Kansas City -150 Money Line over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $150 to win $100)

Ordinarily I would stay away from this line, as Tampa Bay is offering a better play, but being required to pick using the money line, I might as well select the team I believe will win the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 56

I think that we could be at this over in 3 quarters.

National Anthem Length UNDER 130 seconds

Yes, most lines had this at 120 minutes exactly, except a reporter timed a practice singing and reporter 2:16.  Since then, most sites have upped the Over/Under - or taken it off the board.  I think it will still be under the adjusted time frame.

Second Quarter Total Points OVER Serie A Goals Today

Five games today, so I feel like 2 touchdowns could cover it.

LaMelo Ball Total Points OVER Total Kickoffs

Ball averages 13.6 points per game, so that would mean, excluding opening and third quarter kickoffs, I would need six scores each to hit the over from Ball's average.  But, he has scored over 22 in 3 of his last 4 games, and the Hornets play at the awful Wizards, so I will take Ball for about 20 points and win this bet.

Travis Kelce Receptions OVER Cincinnati Bearcats Made 3-Pointers

Cincinnati averages 6 made 3-pointers a game, which means even if they go over their average by 50% I have a legitimate shot at this number.  But, if they have a horrible shooting game and go under .... I'll take that bet.

Antonio Brown Total Yards OVER NHL Total Goals

This was a crapshoot, but I feel if Brown, as the third receiver is going to be open.  Plus, only 25 ot 30 yards gets me this one thanks to some Covid cancellations.

Andy Reid throws in the Punt, Pass, and Kick Contest win he was 13 OVER 1/2

This will be shown a couple of times, I am sure of it.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Chiefs are the best team this year.  easily.  They did play Tampa in the regular season and won 27-24, but that game was not even that close.  Kansas City destroyed them.  Does KC's loss of Eric Fisher concern me?  Yes.  Does Patrick Mahomes' turf toe concern me?  Not as much as we saw Mahomes perform with the turf toe to the tune of 29-38 for 325 yards and 3 TDs.  Does LAurent Duvernay-Tardif opting-out of this season concern me?  Absolutely not because that mad opted out to put his medical degree and knowledge to help out at health care facilities in his hometown.  That is a man.  What should be concerning to Tampa is that they have the 21st ranked passsing defense.  Kansas City also has a 21st ranked defense, but it is against the run and Tampa doesn't run particularly well (T-28th in the NFL).

Including playoffs, Andy Reid is 24-6 when playing after an extra week of rest (bye week or off week in playoffs).  24-6.  That is an 80% winning percentage.  Dude Can Coach.

Big Prop Bet

Antonio Brown Total Yards OVER NHL Total Goals

This was a crapshoot, but I feel if Brown, as the third receiver is going to be open.  Plus, only 25 ot 30 yards gets me this one thanks to some Covid cancellations.

His development over the second half of the season has been the difference between being in the Super Bowl and being beaten by the Chicago Bears.

Last Week's Record: 3-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Playoffs Record:  9-10-1

Year-to-Date Record:  136-136-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($270)

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  ($140)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1265) 

Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs

A ho-hum start to the playoffs makes this weekend's games even more important.  And, with only 4 games on the agenda, it is time to add the over/under into the calculations.  I hate that I do this column to pick all the games, when anything can happen between tonight and tomorrow (see the Saints backup center testing positive for Covid-19), but that is the way the NFL schedules games, so here are all the games.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

I dub this game, the game of three Aarons:  Rodgers, Donald and Jones.  The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 45 1/2

This was a tough call for me, because I think the Packers will score more against the vaunted Rams defense than people expect.  But, I don't think the Rams will score much at all.  So, I am picking the under.  A 30-10 or 31-14 score would not surprise me.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

The weather is the wild card in this game, as snow is predicted.  That probably won't affect the Ravens offense as much as they rely way more on the run (1st in the NFL) than the pass (last in the NFL), and with a stout defense (2nd in scoring defense, 6th in total defense).  This will test the Bills rushing defense (17th in the league) and snow always affects passing games, upon which the Bills rely (3rd in the NFL).  But, Josh Allen thrives in leaving the pocket on pass plays (either planned or as a result of pressure) and I feel that both he and Stefon Diggs are both going to cause defenders to lose their footing, which will account for some big plays.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 49 1/2

I hate multiple unders, but the snow is what is keeping me at this number.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs have the nmber 1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL.  Plus, did any of you watch their playoff run last year.  Cleveland does come into this game after a scorching performance against Pittsburgh, but does anybody believe that if there were 8-10 more minutes extra last week that Cleveland wins that game?  No?  I thought so.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 57

Cleveland's offense is rolling a bit, so I say 38-21 or 35-24.  That ballpark puts me in the over territory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints

It is with trepidation that I make this selection, especially given that New Orleans has already beaten Tampa Bay twice this year, but this is not the same Tampa team, particularly offense, since that week 9 loss.  Tampa has scored 31, 44, 47, 31 and 26 in their last 5 games, all wins.  Adding Antonio Brown allowed the team to give extra healing time to Mike Evans, who is back, and when Antonio Brown is your third receiver, good things are going to happen offensively.  That is a lot of people to cover (Evins, Godwin, Brown, Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Brate).  If anyone can slow down Tampa's 2nd ranked passing offense (and 3rd ranked scoring offense), it could be the Saints (4th in total defense and rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and scoring defense).  But, beating a team three times in one year is difficult, so I feel Tampa keeps this close, at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2

Just too much offense between Tampa Bay and the Saints (5th in scoring offense).  I have to take the over on this

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Aaron Rodgers owes my a big bet win, so here we go.

Last Week's Record:  2-3-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  2-3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  129-129-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $20

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1105) 

Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving, and is there anything more Thanksgiving than NFL football?  Yes - the Spongebob Squarepants balloon at the Macy's!  Traveling this weekend some, so I am just going to go ahead and make my picks, which is dangerous as some game-time injury scratches could just change everything!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -5 1/2 at Detroit Lions
I hate picking the road team on a short week, but if you thought I liked to make fun of Jeff Driskell, imagine how much I like to bet against a guy who could not even beat out Jeff Driskell for second string.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Dallas Cowboys
I still think that the Cowboys win this game - which would be their first win against a team with a winning record, but 7 seems really high.  Josh Allen's legs keeps the ball out of the hands of Rain Prescott and Ezekial Elliott, and their defense keeps it close anyway.

Atlanta Falcons +7 v. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta is not going to sneak up on New Orleans this time, but will still keep it close. Julio Jones is listed as questionable, but Devonta Freeman will be back, and ball-control is crucial when playing against Drew Brees.

Washington Racists +10 at Carolina Panthers
Dwayne Haskins coming of his first NFL win, which was basically a product of the teams defense, might be getting some confidence.  Plus, the Panthers with their 19th ranked offense isn't exactly lighting things up enough to outscore most teams by 10.

New York Jets -3 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
The New York Jets, especially on offense, are playing much, much better as of late winning 3 in a row after losing to the Miami Dolphins.  The number 1 ranked rush defense is going to put the onus on a recently promoted Andy Dalton.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have been solid all year, especially rushing the ball (3rd in the NFL) and against the rush (8th in the NFL), but this Ryan Tannehill phenomenon is really hard for me to explain.  So, I am just going to pick Tennessee when they should lose, and pick against them when they should win.

Baltimore Ravens -6 v. San Francisco 49ers
THE GAME OF THE WEEK TO WATCH; not the game of the week to bet.  We just don't know what is going to happen here.  When in doubt, follow the rules.  Bet against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  Especially when that west coast team is missing players.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are reeling and are in serious trouble of losing not only games, but their coach, fan base, maybe even their team (London anyone?)  Tampa Bay is 4th in passing offense and 3rd in points, whereas Jacksonville - ordinarily good at 10th in passing defense - is missing 6 starters, including Calais Campbell and possibly Telvin Smith (Police activity at his house yesterday amid rumors or running a pot farm in Georgia).

Miami Dolphins +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles, which are 23rd in total offense, should not be favored by 9 points against any time when on the road.  Dolphins had been playing tough until last week's debacle against Cleveland, but the Browns might just be hitting their stride.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at New York Giants
Green Bay has been struggling lately, but the Giants are the remedy for almost all that ails teams, as showcased last week in the Bears second-half performance against the Giants.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland is cruising, and Pittsburgh is playing Delvin Hodges.

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Los Angeles Rams
There is just something about this Arizona team, especially in keeping games close.  The Rams are 18th in total offense, and 18th in total defense, not particularly great statistics.  The problem with this pick is that Arizona's defense is horrid, but the Rams offense has been struggling.  Give me the points.

Oakland Raiders +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 30th in rush defense, and Josh Jacobs for Oakland is 5th in rushing yards.  As always, it is tough to be a double digit favorite, especially in an intra-divisional game, and if Jacobs can help keep the ball out of Patrick Mahomes's hands, this game could be a 7-9 point victory for Kansas City.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Honestly, I wanted to pick the Chargers here, but I have been picking way too m any road teams.  So, Broncos.  (How is that for scientific, mathematical and statistical analysis?)

Houston Texans +3 v. New England Patriots
Both teams have been struggling to play up to their usual expected selves lately, and this game could come down to field goals.  In that case, I want the points at home and I hope that the Texans win 9-6.  Plus, New England is having flu problems this week (8 players right now), so I will take Houston.

Minnesota Vikings +3 Seattle Seahawks
My rooting interests lies with the Seahawks, as I desperately need Minnesota and Green Bay to lose my games in preparation for my Bears being 6-6 after defeating Detroit this week (hopefully).  But, the Seahawks defense is 23rd in total defense and 21st in scoring defense, and they are giving points to Minnesota, so I will take them.

Big Bet I
Chicago Bears -5 1/2 at Detroit Lions
I hate picking the road team on a short week, but if you thought I liked to make fun of Jeff Driskell, imagine how much I like to bet against a guy who could not even beat out Jeff Driskell for second string.

What is a David Blough?  Although the fear of the unknown actually scares me when wagering, I am hoping Matt Nagy has learned that Mitchell Trubisky is better in a no huddle, and keeps that going for the rest of the season.

Big Bet II
Because I want to have something big at stake on Thanksgiving, and on Sunday, I am selecting two Big Bets this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are reeling and are in serious trouble of losing not only games, but their coach, fan base, maybe even their team (London anyone?)  Tampa Bay is 4th in passing offense and 3rd in points, whereas Jacksonville - ordinarily good at 10th in passing defense - is missing 6 starters, including Calais Campbell and possibly Telvin Smith (Police activity at his house yesterday amid rumors or running a pot farm in Georgia).

Since Tampa is going to be throwing the ball all over the field (Jameis Winston is second in passing yards - 32 behind Rain Prescot; Chris Godwin is second in receiving yards; and Mike Evans is third in receiving yards), I'll bet Jacksonville wishes they still had Jalen Ramsey.


Last Week's Record:  5-9
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  83-94
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($655)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,825)

Picks of the Week

I could not put two winning weeks in a row.  This is getting ugly.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Home team, short week.

Oakland Raiders + 5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
Talk about a west coast team heading east, as this game is in London, but Oakland flew to London after last week's game, whereas the Bears arrived mid-week.  That is good for the Bears because it means Roquan Smith made the trip.  Oakland has been playing week.  I will take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Two mediocre teams that have been playing fairly well.  Jacksonville almost covered against Kansas City, so I will take the points here.  Minshew looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback, though the jury is still out on Kyle Allen.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
Definitely a game that I do not want to watch.  Arizona's defense is just a bit worse than Cincinnati's, so on that basis, and the fact that it is a west coast team (Arizona does not observe daylight savings time, so they are three hours behind the east) travelling east playing the early game.

Houston Texans -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
Houston is 12th in rushing, and 10th in scoring defense, so I will take that over Atlanta, which is third in passing offense, but that is mostly because they are always behind and have to pass.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well.  They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense.  At the very least they should keep this game close.

New York Giants +5 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This bet is a combination of the fact that I don't think the Vikings' internal turmoil and feud helps them, and the fact that I loathe road favorites.  Minnesota is the better team, I just don't think they are in the right mindset to truly show that.

Philadelphia Eagles -14 v. New York Jets
Why not? Double digit favorites have done great this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Taking points at home in an intra-divisional game, yes please.  Especially given that Lamar Jackson has come down to earth a bit, and the Steelers pass rush seems to be picking up steam.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Tennessee Titans
Although Tennessee was quite impressive last week, but this Buffalo defense is STOUT.  They are 7th in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage, 5th in scoring defense, 4th in passing defense and 2nd in total defense.

New England Patriots -16 at Washington Racists
You would have thought that I would have learned my lesson last week taking the Patriots on the road as a favorite (they won, but did not cover).  But, the Racists are going with Colt McCoy, and all the talk about firing Jay Gruden coupled with the release of the Jay Gruden smoking pot with young women may mean this team is not thinking about football.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Phillip Rivers is doing his thing, and Melvin Gordon's true return makes this offense even more potent.  But, the defense is also 9th in scoring defense and 10th in total defense, meaning, they should win this game and cover at home.

Green Bay Packers +3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas either did not take advantage of a huge opportunity to knock of an NFC rival last week, and the fact that game was 12-10, leads me to believe that either the Cowboys make a statement and blow out the Packers, or this game is close.  I think Aaron Rodgers keeps this close.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 v. Indianapolis Colts
Ordinarily I would select the Colts here, but their best defender is out of the game, so I am going to give up more points than I really want to do here.

Cleveland Browns +4 at San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland may have finally figured out how to keep everyone involved in the offense, and I think the bye week occurred at an inopportune time for San Francisco, as the time off this early in the season may affect the momentum they had after winning their first 3 games.

Big Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well.  They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense.  At the very least they should keep this game close.
Jameis Winston may have finally saved his job this season.


Last Week's Record:  6-9
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  28-35
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($555)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,080)