Picks of the Week

Got absolutely hammered last week, and not only that - lost the big bet too!!!  Definite correction from this year, but hopefull prepping for the Saturday games gives me time to process the Sunday/Monday games, and really hit a bounce-back week.  It started well Thursday night.

It is Week 15, so good luck to everyone in your Fantasy Football playoffs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I still hate this pick, even after the Raiders 63-21 victory, but glad I made it!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

This is a tough game to pick, because most of the yearly stats are irrelevant due to Jake Browning and Nick Mullens being the starters.  This is more worrisome for Minnesota, as they had the 8th best passing offense in the NFL.  The return of Justin Jefferson absolutely helps Nick Mullens, but Jake Browning seemed pretty settled in last week.  Plus - home team/short week.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

How can two teams have the exact same, above-.500 record, and yet be so diametrically opposed?  Pittsburgh going downhill, fast.  And on a short week - I'll take the home team (I know, shocking, right?!)

Detroit Lions -5 v. Denver Broncos

I talked to some of the world's leading minds - including several actuaries - and nobody can explain this year's Denver Broncos.  Apparently they have the best defense in the NFL since their annihilation at the hands of the Dolphins (70-20 for those that forgot), but that still only gives them the 22nd best scoring defense, 24th best passing defense, and 32nd ranked rushing and total defense.  Crazily enough, they do have the 2nd best 3rd down percentage defense.  The Lions offense is just the opposite (3rd in total offense; 5th in rushing; 7th in passing and scoring).  Plus, they are at home, and just look ... better.  Disregard the Bears loss because they Bears just play them tough in general.  Sometimes it IS about matchups.

Chicago Bears +3 at Cleveland Browns

The Bears have played tough in November and December, and look to keep that up against a Joe Flacco-led offense whose primary dimension - running the ball - plays into the Bears 2nd-ranked rushing defense.

New England Patriots +8 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The struggling Chiefs head to New England to play a team that hasn't lost by more than this spread line since week 8.  It is supposed to be rainy and windy in Foxboro.

New York Jets +8 v. Miami Dolphins

Won't the real Zach Wilson please stand up, please stand up.  Honestly, this pick is less about Wilson, and more about the fact that a LOT of key Dolphins could miss this game, including several lineman and Tyreek Hill.  Plus, the Dolphins played Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

New York Giants +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

And, speaking of ... If any team can prepare for Tommy DeVito at QB, it is the New Orleans Saints, who basically have their own DeVito in Taysom Hill.  But, New Orleans' defense is 26th against the rush, so we should see a healthy dose of Saquan Barkley, or, at least enough to keep this close.  I hate this pick because the Giants also played Monday night.  Ugh!

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears' dream of back-to-back overall number 1 picks is still alive-and-kicking thanks to the dreadul Panthers offense (30th in scoring; 30th in total offense; 31st in passing offense).  The Panthers D is great against the pass (3rd), but part of that is teams are easily head and run the ball almost exclusively late (22nd rush defense).  Since Atlanta has found Bijan Robinson, I look for a healthy dose of running the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

As of now, it looks like Aaron Jones will return for the Packers, and even with Jones I expect this to be a close game.  If he cannot return, or if he is limited by his injury, and with Christian Watson out - Tampa should cover on the road.  Plus Green Bay played Monday night, and I already picked 2 teams from Monday Night even though it is a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -12 at Arizona Cardinals

So, picking San Francisco as an intradivisional double-digit favorite last week hurt me, but even then they actually beat Seattle by 12, and Seattle is a much better tean than Arizona, which is 27th in scoring and 24th in total defense.

Los Angeles Rams -6 at Washington Commanders

At least the Rams get the 4:00 time slot coming from the west coast.  Anybody wonder if the Commanders defense is missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young yet?

Dallas Cowboys +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Even though Buffalo beat the Chiefs last week, they are still 2-3 in their last 5 games.  On paper this is a close game with Dallas and Buffalo 1st and 5th in scoring; and 4th and 6th, respectively, in scoring defense.  In close games I take the points.  Also, this game is not going to be as close as on paper.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is a solid playoff team, but, they just look like they are missing a little something when watching them play (like a Trevor Lawrence connection with Calvin Ridley).  Hopefully they get that back before the playoffs to make the AFC a bit more exciting.  But for now, they host the Ravens who have won 3 in a row and 7 of their last 8.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is led by Drew Lock, who will not be enough to overcome the damage Philadelphia's offense is going to do to the 26th ranked scoring defense in the NFL (and 28th in total defense).

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

Tennessee gets the Big Bet because they are home - and most of my other favorite picks are on the road.  Plus, just last week they beat the vaunted Dolphins offense by holding Miami to only 27.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  112-86-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,635