Picks of the Week

 

Pathetically average week, but losing the Big Bet hurts a lot!  Try to turn this around this week, with a good start on Thursday!  Merry Christmas everyone, and good luck betting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know that I am going against the above adage - home team on a short week, but the Bengals have been cruising under Jake Browning.  But, could it be stupid to bet against Rudolph (Mason) on Christmas weekend?!

Buffalo Bills -12 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is absolutely ridiculous!  I mean, I get why it is this high - what is an Easton Stick anyway? - but why am I picking it?  Gut feeling, and the Chargers have among the worst defenses in the NFL (30th overall, 28th scoring, 30th passing yards)  Calling Stefon Diggs!

Chicago Bears -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Chicago took the league's best defense down to the wire, and if not for a dropped TD on the final Hail Mary, would have beat them. Arizona's is nowehere near the level of the Browns (26th overall, 31st rushing, 31st scoring), but Chicago's defense may be close to that level now.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle coming off an emotional upset win on Monday night, are ripe for an upset, especially since they are playing on a short week.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's defense is playing very well this year (9th in total defense), and they were starting to use Bijan Robinson a bit, and then last week's loss to the horrendous Panthers happened.  And, Gardner Minshew is ripe to take this team to the playoffs, especially with Jonathan Taylor back.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Houston Texans

Case Keenum is a legitimate NFL quarterback, and is not going to be scared by being on the field.  The problem for him is that Cleveland's defense just runs through everyone.  And, Joe Flacco is still a legit NFL quarterback as well.  He might get sacked a few more times than normal, but he will fling it around the field.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

Washington Commanders +3 at New York Jets 

I don't like this line one bit.  I actually wrote it selecting Washington, and picking New York.  Either way, I don't like it.  But, I really don't Trevor Siemian.

Detroit Lions -3 at Minnesota Vikings

This Lions offense is really potent (3rd overall, 4th passing, 2nd rushing, 5th scoring), and although Nick Mullens can play, Detroit is within range of home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is in the midst of a three-game slump, and even with Trevor Lawrence being out of concussion protocol, their 25th ranked defense (overall/29th passing and 21st scoring) may have its collective hands full with a team that has won 3 games in a row scoring 34, 29, and 21 in those wins.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I honestly think that the Cowboys are going to win this game.  But ... I cannot pick 3 visiting teams on short weeks, and I already picked Cincinnati and Buffalo.

New England Patriots +7 at Denver Broncos

New England has played teams tough, losing by 10 last week to Kansas City.  Denver is not Kansas City.  I don't think Denver can score enough points to cover this spread against the Patriots defense (8th total, 2nd in rushing defense).

Las Vegas Raiders +10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

There is no way Las Vegas is as good as their 63-point outburst last week, but they just may be good enough to cover a double digit spread against a team that has been struggling a bit in the past month or so.

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 1/2 v. New York Giants

A double-digit spread against an intra-divisional rival is almost always an automatic no-no (see Raiders above).  But, this is where the Tommy DeVito experience comes crashing to the ground like a feast of sleeping with 7 fishes.

Baltimore Ravens +6 at San Francisco 49ers

I just think that this game is going to be incredibly close.  Because of that, I'll take the points.  But, Nick Bosa might have the best game of any edge rusher ever.  I am assuming that he is going to be extra motivated (IYKYK) against the one team in the NFL with an all-black quarterback room (3 QBs, OC, QB coach).  Baltimore still keeps it close.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

I hate picking visiting teams giving points as my big bet, but there are not a lot of other choices out there.  I thought about the Browns, but they are in the same situation as the Packers being on the road giving up points.  The Colts and Raiders were also on my radar.  I am just hoping that Aaron Jones comes back from injury and has a terrific game (as I need him for fantasy too!)

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  119-93-12

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,400

Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs

A ho-hum start to the playoffs makes this weekend's games even more important.  And, with only 4 games on the agenda, it is time to add the over/under into the calculations.  I hate that I do this column to pick all the games, when anything can happen between tonight and tomorrow (see the Saints backup center testing positive for Covid-19), but that is the way the NFL schedules games, so here are all the games.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

I dub this game, the game of three Aarons:  Rodgers, Donald and Jones.  The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 45 1/2

This was a tough call for me, because I think the Packers will score more against the vaunted Rams defense than people expect.  But, I don't think the Rams will score much at all.  So, I am picking the under.  A 30-10 or 31-14 score would not surprise me.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

The weather is the wild card in this game, as snow is predicted.  That probably won't affect the Ravens offense as much as they rely way more on the run (1st in the NFL) than the pass (last in the NFL), and with a stout defense (2nd in scoring defense, 6th in total defense).  This will test the Bills rushing defense (17th in the league) and snow always affects passing games, upon which the Bills rely (3rd in the NFL).  But, Josh Allen thrives in leaving the pocket on pass plays (either planned or as a result of pressure) and I feel that both he and Stefon Diggs are both going to cause defenders to lose their footing, which will account for some big plays.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 49 1/2

I hate multiple unders, but the snow is what is keeping me at this number.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs have the nmber 1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL.  Plus, did any of you watch their playoff run last year.  Cleveland does come into this game after a scorching performance against Pittsburgh, but does anybody believe that if there were 8-10 more minutes extra last week that Cleveland wins that game?  No?  I thought so.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 57

Cleveland's offense is rolling a bit, so I say 38-21 or 35-24.  That ballpark puts me in the over territory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints

It is with trepidation that I make this selection, especially given that New Orleans has already beaten Tampa Bay twice this year, but this is not the same Tampa team, particularly offense, since that week 9 loss.  Tampa has scored 31, 44, 47, 31 and 26 in their last 5 games, all wins.  Adding Antonio Brown allowed the team to give extra healing time to Mike Evans, who is back, and when Antonio Brown is your third receiver, good things are going to happen offensively.  That is a lot of people to cover (Evins, Godwin, Brown, Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Brate).  If anyone can slow down Tampa's 2nd ranked passing offense (and 3rd ranked scoring offense), it could be the Saints (4th in total defense and rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and scoring defense).  But, beating a team three times in one year is difficult, so I feel Tampa keeps this close, at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2

Just too much offense between Tampa Bay and the Saints (5th in scoring offense).  I have to take the over on this

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Aaron Rodgers owes my a big bet win, so here we go.

Last Week's Record:  2-3-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  2-3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  129-129-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $20

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1105) 

Professional Football Weekly Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 3 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  For the first time this season (thanks Irma) I watched a lot of football, so I have a pretty good sample size.

Game of the Week

Seattle Seahawks 30 v. Los Angeles Rams 29 - Wow, an exciting Thursday night game.  We hardly ever get those.  Russell Wilson threw the last of his four TDs to Chris Carson on 4th and goal to take a one-point lead over the Rams.  Jared Goff (and his 395 yards passing) then leads the march downfield until usually reliable Greg Zeuerlein missed a game-winning field goal from essentially extra-point distance.  Fun back-and-forth game wherein both teams played well on both sides of the football.

Best Team Performance

Green Bay Packers - A masterful 34-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys on the road cements Green Bay as true contender in the NFC.  It also pushes the Cowboys down a peg, as they suffer their second-straight loss, despite Dak Prescott throwing for 463 yards.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Cleveland Browns - I would love to say the New York Jets, but they are still missing Sam Darnold.  Likewise, the Washington Racists are contenders, but they did play the juggernaut that is the New England Patriots.  So, Cleveland, which was absolutely decimated by the San Francisco 49ers 31-3, especially coming off two pretty good performances.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Christian McCaffrey, RB - Carolina Panthers.  Mr. Do-Everything for the Panthers had a stellar day, gaining 176 yards and 2 TDs on the ground, and 61 yards and a TD on 6 receptions in Carolina's 34-27 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

AND

DeShaun Watson, QB and Will Fuller, V, WR - Houston Texans - This is a joint award because we cannot have one without the other. Watson finished with 426 yards passing and 5 TDs, 217 yards and 3 TDs of which were hauled in by Fuller.  This prolific passing attack led to Houston's 52-23 victory over the hapless Atlanta Falcons.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco 49ers - Continuously harassed Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield and it showed up in the stat line.  Bosa finished with 4 tackles, 2 sacks, 3 tackles for loss and 5 quarterback hits.  The San Francisco defensive line was the single most potent position on the field throughout the entire game.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Zane Gonzalez, K - Arizona Cardinals.  The Arizona kicker confidently and easily kicked a game-winning 31 yard field goal as time expired to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals for their first victory on the season, and the first victory in Kyler Murray's short career.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Wolverhampton - The Wolves went on the road to the Etihad and defeated Manchester City 2-0 behind a brace from Adama Traore, ending the scoreless draw in the 80th minute and putting the game on ice in the 94th minute.

Brighton & Hove Albion - The Seagulls share the honor with the Wolves as they soundly defeated the struggling Tottenhom Hotspurs 3-0 at home behind a brace from Aaron Connolly and an opening goal from Neal Maupay.  Albion was decidedly the better team throughout, and earned their three points.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Matthew Longstaff, M - Newcastle United.  The 19 year old wunderkind made his English Premier League debut against perennial power Manchester United and scored the winning (and only) goal in Newcastle's 1-0 upset win.

Goat of the Week

Freddie Kitchens, Coach - Cleveland Browns.  No game plan at all to try to protect Baker Mayfield as the Browns' quarterback was annihilated by San Francisco's swarming defense.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Marc Albrighton, M - Leicester City.  Albrighton fouled Liverpool's Sadio Mane in the penalty area (confirmed by VAR), in the 90th minute allowing James Milner to score the game winner on the resulting penalty kick.

Hit of the Week

Daniel Snyder, Owner - Washington Racists.  Fires head coach Jay Gruden on Monday after the Racists fell to 0-5 after their Sunday loss to the New England Patriots.  The hit? Calling Gruden into the office to fire him at 5:00 a.m.

Breakthrough Performance

Aaron Jones, RB - Green Bay Packers.  In a very important intra-NFC game, Aaron Jones controlled the game with 107 yards rushing and 4 TDs, to go with 75 yards receiving.

Finally

Kirk Cousins, QB - Minnesota Vikings.  Just one week after being called out by both of his star receivers, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, Cousins goes 22-27 for 306 yards and 2 TDs, both to Thielen.  But, as we all know, consistency has always been Cousins' problem

Impact Injury

Kyle Juszczyk, RBT - San Francisco 49ers.  The perennial Pro-Bowl fullback dominated this game as the lead blocker for Matt Breida (114 yards on 11 carries, including an opening play 83 yard touchdown), Tevin Coleman (97 yards on 16 carries), and even Raheem Mostart (34 yards on 7 carries).  Juszczyk even contributed in the box score with 2 catches for 20 yards (both first downs).  His presence will be missed for the next 4 to 6 weeks. 

Team Rising

Indianapolis Colts - The Colts, despite the late preseason retirement of Andrew Luck, have started 3-2, including this week's 19-13 defeat of the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.  The Colts are definite contenders in the AFC South, if not the AFC itself.

Team Falling

Cleveland Browns - I could have put the Chicago Bears here after their 24-21 loss to the Oakland Raiders in London, but that was an organizational problem, deciding to travel to London on Thursday.  The Bears did not wake up until the second half, which they then dominated, so it will have to go to the Cleveland Browns after being annihilated 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday Night Football to fall to 2-3 on the season.  Plus, their offensive line, which was already a known weakness, became even more exposed.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked ahead by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.)

1. New England Patriots

2. San Francisco 49ers

3. New Orleans Saints

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Seattle Seahawks

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Washington Racists

31. Cincinnati Bengals

30. Miami Dolphins*

29. New York Jets

28. Atlanta Falcons

*Please note that the Dolphins are the worst team so far this year, but they have the luxury of a bye already, so their record is slightly better than Cincinnati and the Racists.

Middle Teams

15. Oakland Raiders

16. Minnesota Vikings

17. Carolina Panthers

18. Detroit Lions

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Last Entry's Trivia Question was:  Tom Brady begins his 20th season with the New England Patriots.  How many players have played at least 20 years with only one team throughout their careers, and out of those players, who has played the most years (and with which team)?

Answer:  3 Players - Darrell Green (Washington Racists) and Jackie Slater (Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams) 20 years; Jason Hanson (Detroit Lions) 21 years.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6. Washington Racists v. Miami Dolphins - The two actual worst teams in the league battle for the choice to choose Tua Tagavailoa (or Jake Fromm, or Justin Herbert, whomever they want), as the tanking continues.

5. Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers - Ranked this highly primarily because not a lot of exciting games are taking place this week, but this is Monday Night Football, and it is for the NFC North division lead.  

4. Premier League is off on national team duty this weekend.

3. Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings - Two teams that may have flaws, but are generally playing pretty well and are both definite playoff contenders.  This head-to-head matchup could have big playoff implications either as the first playoff tiebreaker or as a common NFC opponents

2. San Francisco 49ers v. Los Angeles Rams - I am matchup between two exciting teams, one on offense with great players on defense (the Rams) versus one with a great defense with some really good players on offense (the 49ers).  This game should be a fun one to watch, and is one that the Los Angeles would need to keep from falling 3 games behind San Francisco.

1. Houston Texans v. Kansas City Chiefs - Two high-flying, exciting offenses orchestrated by young quarterbacks (not named Mitchell Trubisky).  This is easily the matchup to watch this week, and it comes at 1:00 on Sunday.

Trivia

Since I missed a couple of weeks, there are multiple questions today.

1.  With Josh Rosen now starting for the Miami Dolphins, there are now 3 quarterbacks to make starts for 2 different teams in their first two seasons in the NFL.  Who are the other two?

2.  With New England's most recent victory over Buffalo in Buffalo, Tom Brady now has the most wins of any quarterback in the NFL in Buffalo this century (since 2001).  Who has the next most?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

I watched this week's games from the same place as week 1, so no new review, other than to say our server Michael was amazing, and they took away the stupid games that took up perfect bar-top table space, and we sat at the new bar-top tables.  Thanks Ariel!

Duffys' Sports Grill
225 Clematis Street
West Palm Beach, FL
561/249-1682