Picks of the Week

Got absolutely hammered last week, and not only that - lost the big bet too!!!  Definite correction from this year, but hopefull prepping for the Saturday games gives me time to process the Sunday/Monday games, and really hit a bounce-back week.  It started well Thursday night.

It is Week 15, so good luck to everyone in your Fantasy Football playoffs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I still hate this pick, even after the Raiders 63-21 victory, but glad I made it!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

This is a tough game to pick, because most of the yearly stats are irrelevant due to Jake Browning and Nick Mullens being the starters.  This is more worrisome for Minnesota, as they had the 8th best passing offense in the NFL.  The return of Justin Jefferson absolutely helps Nick Mullens, but Jake Browning seemed pretty settled in last week.  Plus - home team/short week.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

How can two teams have the exact same, above-.500 record, and yet be so diametrically opposed?  Pittsburgh going downhill, fast.  And on a short week - I'll take the home team (I know, shocking, right?!)

Detroit Lions -5 v. Denver Broncos

I talked to some of the world's leading minds - including several actuaries - and nobody can explain this year's Denver Broncos.  Apparently they have the best defense in the NFL since their annihilation at the hands of the Dolphins (70-20 for those that forgot), but that still only gives them the 22nd best scoring defense, 24th best passing defense, and 32nd ranked rushing and total defense.  Crazily enough, they do have the 2nd best 3rd down percentage defense.  The Lions offense is just the opposite (3rd in total offense; 5th in rushing; 7th in passing and scoring).  Plus, they are at home, and just look ... better.  Disregard the Bears loss because they Bears just play them tough in general.  Sometimes it IS about matchups.

Chicago Bears +3 at Cleveland Browns

The Bears have played tough in November and December, and look to keep that up against a Joe Flacco-led offense whose primary dimension - running the ball - plays into the Bears 2nd-ranked rushing defense.

New England Patriots +8 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The struggling Chiefs head to New England to play a team that hasn't lost by more than this spread line since week 8.  It is supposed to be rainy and windy in Foxboro.

New York Jets +8 v. Miami Dolphins

Won't the real Zach Wilson please stand up, please stand up.  Honestly, this pick is less about Wilson, and more about the fact that a LOT of key Dolphins could miss this game, including several lineman and Tyreek Hill.  Plus, the Dolphins played Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

New York Giants +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

And, speaking of ... If any team can prepare for Tommy DeVito at QB, it is the New Orleans Saints, who basically have their own DeVito in Taysom Hill.  But, New Orleans' defense is 26th against the rush, so we should see a healthy dose of Saquan Barkley, or, at least enough to keep this close.  I hate this pick because the Giants also played Monday night.  Ugh!

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears' dream of back-to-back overall number 1 picks is still alive-and-kicking thanks to the dreadul Panthers offense (30th in scoring; 30th in total offense; 31st in passing offense).  The Panthers D is great against the pass (3rd), but part of that is teams are easily head and run the ball almost exclusively late (22nd rush defense).  Since Atlanta has found Bijan Robinson, I look for a healthy dose of running the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

As of now, it looks like Aaron Jones will return for the Packers, and even with Jones I expect this to be a close game.  If he cannot return, or if he is limited by his injury, and with Christian Watson out - Tampa should cover on the road.  Plus Green Bay played Monday night, and I already picked 2 teams from Monday Night even though it is a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -12 at Arizona Cardinals

So, picking San Francisco as an intradivisional double-digit favorite last week hurt me, but even then they actually beat Seattle by 12, and Seattle is a much better tean than Arizona, which is 27th in scoring and 24th in total defense.

Los Angeles Rams -6 at Washington Commanders

At least the Rams get the 4:00 time slot coming from the west coast.  Anybody wonder if the Commanders defense is missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young yet?

Dallas Cowboys +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Even though Buffalo beat the Chiefs last week, they are still 2-3 in their last 5 games.  On paper this is a close game with Dallas and Buffalo 1st and 5th in scoring; and 4th and 6th, respectively, in scoring defense.  In close games I take the points.  Also, this game is not going to be as close as on paper.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is a solid playoff team, but, they just look like they are missing a little something when watching them play (like a Trevor Lawrence connection with Calvin Ridley).  Hopefully they get that back before the playoffs to make the AFC a bit more exciting.  But for now, they host the Ravens who have won 3 in a row and 7 of their last 8.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is led by Drew Lock, who will not be enough to overcome the damage Philadelphia's offense is going to do to the 26th ranked scoring defense in the NFL (and 28th in total defense).

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

Tennessee gets the Big Bet because they are home - and most of my other favorite picks are on the road.  Plus, just last week they beat the vaunted Dolphins offense by holding Miami to only 27.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  112-86-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,635

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk.  I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games.  Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A few things concern me with this pick.  First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4.  That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions.  Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass.  So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field.  But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks.  I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot.  And, Derrick Henry returns.  Plus, he is fresh.  Tennessee wins.

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2

With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th).  This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle.  This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)

Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)

Aaron Rodgers continues his F  You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers.  The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship.  A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans.  Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2

Their week 3 battle ended 30-28.  I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week.  Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough.  Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week.  And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)

Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2

I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now.  Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This should be a phenomenal game.  Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense).  But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.

Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)

Buffalo has a great chance to win this game.  I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low.  But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54

Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games.  This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.

Last Week's Record:  10-7-1

Playoff Record:  10-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoff Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-136-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  $334

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6) 

Picks of the Week

 

Another 8-8 week snakebitten by the Pick of the Week.  Seriously, how on earth did the Raiders let that one falter, only to win on a FG in overtime.  They easily could have had a TD on that last drive too, but I get it, take the guaranteed points.  UGH!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Home teams are 0-4 against the spread this year.  Yuch.  At least Cincy squeaking by worked in my suicide pool.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I am only making this pick because I think that Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor might actually be calling the plays this game.  No official announcement on that front has been made, but if Nagy makes the calls, this is almost for sure a guaranteed loss.

New York Giants +7 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are definitely the better team, but the Giants have played pretty close in their three losses.  The Saints are coming off a pretty good-sized wins, which means in Jameis Winston's up-and-down career, he is due for a down game.  Gimme the points.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's offense is still prolific, but the Eagles defense is performing way better than the Chiefs' defense this year to date.  All 3 of KC's games have been within 6 points, and that game was a loss for the Chiefs.  Eagles on a short week could hurt, but I like them getting a full touchdown rather than 6 and the hook.

Buffalo Bills -17 1/2 v. Houston Texans

This spread is preposterous, especially for an NFL game.  The easy bet is on the Texans.  But, there is always one bet that seems way too easy, so you should go the opposite direction.  I think this is that game.

  

Carolina Panthers +4 at Dallas Cowboys

My mind initially saaw the Cowboys as the pick.  But, this Carolina defense only gives 224 yards (1st), 146 passing yards (1st), 45 rushing yards (1st) and 10 points (2nd) per game.  I expect the Cowboys will exceed those averages, but their pedestrian defense (26th total defense, 31st passing defense, 13th in scoring defense) will be what lets them down and keeps this game close.  Plus, the Cowboys are coming off a short week.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Minnesota Vikings

This pick is based upon my belief that Dalvin Cook, although playing, will not be 100%.  Another key is Cleveland's 2nd best rushing offense versus Minnesota's 20th ranked rushing defense.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

In what looks to be the dreariest game of the day, I will take points.  Why?  Indianapolis' top-ranked unit is its passing defense (13th), and Miami's tap-ranked unit is its passing defense (19th).  Every other unit is worse, offensively and defensively.  Ugh.

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

New York's offense is putrid (30th total offense, 30th passing offense, 29th rushing offense, 32nd scoring offense).  Couple that with a middling rush defense (15th) against Derrick Henry, it's Tennessee.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

The 29th (Washington) and 30th (Atlanta) scoring defenses in the NFL.  With that being a horrible draw, which team scores more?  Washington is 19th whereas Atlanta is 29th.  I'll take Washington.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Statistically, the Cardinals are better, especially offensively.  But, these two high-flying offenses (Arizona 1st in scoring offense; Los Angeles 3rd), will see this game decided by defense, possibly with Jalen Ramsey making a big stop.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle is a shocking 1-2 whereas San Francisco is a very good 2-1, losing only to a last-second Aaron Rodgers drive last week.   Seattle's defense has been abysmal this year so far, but San Francisco's offense is slightly below average in everything, so I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Both defenses match-up favorably in this game, which is saying something since Green Bay was torched early by Jameis Winston.  Pittsburgh's offense is helmed by the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, whereas Aaron Rodgers has shaken off that week 1 loss.

Baltimore Ravens pick 'em at Denver Broncos

Denver has the opportunity to quiet those opponents that are complaining that Denver's 3-0 means nothing because they haven't played anybody (Giants, Jaguars, Jets).  The Broncos defense is good (2nd overall, 3rd passing, 2nd rushing, 1st scoring), but A LOT of that can be attributed to their opponents' offensive ineptness.  Baltimore is first in rushing and 8th in rushing defense.  I like Baltimore's chances on the road, but I wish they were getting a point or two.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

They over-hyped game of the week because of Brady's return, but I expect this game to not be close.  Although Mac Jones has the 1 win from all rookie QBs this year, it came at the expense of the Jets, and another rookie QB.  To prove that Rob Gronkowski's rib injury means nothing, I predict Brady throws a touchdown to Cameron Brate.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This game should be a fun one to wach as the Raiders are 1st in the NFL in passing offense and the Chargers are 4th in passing offense.  But, the Raiders are better at converting points from their yards (6th in the NFL versus 19th).  The defenses are fairly similar (13th versus 16th in total defense), except the Chargers are dead last in rushing defense and 28th in third-down conversion defense.  I actually typed all of this before I mentally made my pick, so I talked myself into the Raiders.

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

I hate picking road teams for my big bet, but given how awfule I have been at my guarantee, I have to change it up.  Missing stud receivers only means more Derrick Henry, with a surprise splash of Anthony Firkser.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  23-25

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($945)

Picks of the Week - Super Wild Card Weekend

 

As I predicted, week 17 killed me, especially since none of us would predict Doug Pederson would pull Jalen Hurts for Nathan Sudfield.  This is why we should never bet Week 17, except that I have fans that expect if from me.  Hopefully the playoffs bring me good look.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Look, Buffalo wins this game, but the Indianapolis defense is legit (2nd in rushing defense and 7th in total defense).  Buffalo wins because they are 3rd in passing offense and Indianapolis is 20th in passing defense, but this still means that this game will be close.  Primarily because of Johnathan Taylor going aginst a middling 17th ranked rushing defense.  Buffalo wins by 3.

Los Angeles Rams + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

A second straight game where I take the points with the visiting team.  But, this is not your normal visiting team.  The Rams have the best defense in the NFL (3rd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing defene, scoring defense and total defense).  Jalen Ramsey can lock down DK Metcalf, and Aaron Donald is the best player in the NFL.  Seattle may win this game, but it will be super close.

Washington Football Team +8 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

My third straight game where I take the points.  Tom Brady has been horrible in night games, and given that he is not mobile, the Washington defensive line, with four first round draft picks (Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Marquez Sweat) is going to give the immobile Brady trouble.  If Alex Smith was healthy, I would predict Washington to win this game outright, but given that he isn't, they lose by a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry.  The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens.  In short, I'll take the points.

Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This is not a homer bet.  The Saints win this game.  But, this spread is way too high, especially given that Alvin Kamara hasn't been able to practice since last week due to Covid protocols.  The Saints average 30 points per game, and the Bears average giving up 23, well within the point spread.  This game screams back door cover with a late Allen Robinson touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Cleveland Browns

Well, I have to pick one favorite, right?  And, I normally would have selected Cleveland in this game as they are playing really well going into the playoffs.  But, they just barely beat Pittsburgh last week with the Steelers starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and now, head coach Kevin Stefanski is out due to Covid protocols.  Steelers roll.

  

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry.  The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens.  In short, I'll take the points.

Give me points at home in the playoffs!

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  127-126-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1125)

Picks of the Week

Well, week 17 was a total crapshoot.  Now we are on to the playoffs, with the wildcard round starting today.  That means the below rules apply to the over/under bet as well as to the pick via the point spread.  I will also be picking each game via the money line, and the money line rules will apply.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense.  I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league.  So, they are overrated.  I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.

Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above.  In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well.  Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright.  Why?  Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win.  That makes me leery.  But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.

Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense.  The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.

New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line.  Just hate it.  But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright.  The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas.  Who does Minnesota have to cover him?  Don't worry, I'll wait.

Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one.  Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco.  Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.

Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs

Big Bet I

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2

The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.

Big Bet II

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots

Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($900)

Professional Football Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 13 of the NFL season.

Game of the Week

San Francisco 49ers 48 - New Orleans Saints 46.  I finally have seen a game that compares to the 1982 divisional playoff game in which the Miami Dolphins defeated the San Diego Chargers 41-38. That game featured two separate 400 yard passers (Dan Fouts 406 and Don Strock 403), and the offenses were virtually unstoppable.  This game had both quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Jimmy Garappolo) throw for 349 and both team's leading rushers (Raheem Mostert and Latavius Murray rush for 69 yards.  Both teams also had a receiver go well over 100 yards; for San Francisco it was Emmanuel Sanders with 157 and 1 touchdown and for New Orleans it was Michael Thomas with 134 and 1 TD - on 11 receptions.  Of course the game ended on a last minute drive with Drew Brees throwing a game-winning TD pass to Tre'Quan Smith with :53 left on the clock (but the 2 point conversion failed.}  Except it didn't.  San Francisco took the ensuing possession down the field, aided by a 39 yard George Kittle reception in which he plowed through the Saints defense and was only tackled by his facemask - resulting in 15 more yards.  The ever-reliable Robbie Gould kicks the winning 30 yard field goal as time expired.

Best Team Performance

Tennessee Titans.  Not only playing themselves into a potential wildcard spot, the Titans are now challenging for the AFC South title, a division in which they play the Houston Texans twice in the next (last) 3 games.  Tennessee handily defeated fellow (former) playoff contender Oakland 42-21, led by the dual threat of Ryan Tannehill's 391 yards passing and Derrick Henry's 103 yards rushing.  

Least Impressive Team Performance

Jacksonville Jaguars.  I have rarely seen a team just blatantly give up as bad as this team.  They lost 45-10 at home to the Los Angeles Chargers and made Philip Rivers look like he only had 3 kids.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Jameis Winston, QB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Winston was 33-45 for 456 yards and 4 TDs (but 3 Interceptions) as the Buccaneers defeated the Indianapolis Colts 38-35.  In most cases this would have been the game of the week.  Also in most weeks Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers would have won this award, except he played the Jaguars.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans.  Huh?  How does this make sense?  Well, he had one of the most important defensive plays of the season.  Yes, Joey Bosa's tackle in the backfield on Alvin Kamara was singularly impressive, but Ryan Tannehill's square tackle and drive to the ground hit on Maurice Hurst after throwing an interception that Hurst returned 55 yards, with a convoy, is the type of play that fires up a defense around a quarterback that previously had questions marks.  This Titans team is now - if they weren't before - solidly behind Tannehill both as a QB and as a football player.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Jason Sanders, K - Miami Dolphins.  Sanders was 7-8 on field goals (Yes, 8 attempts), including a 53 yarder, as the Dolphins fell to the Jets 22-21.  Honorable Mention to Deonte Harris of the New Orleans Saints who had 194 return yards on 5 kickoff returns and 2 punt returns, constantly switching the field with his dynamic runs.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Everton.  With a new manager at the helm, Everton looked very impressive, and played extremely hard, and well, putting pressure on Chelsea at every turn as Everton won 3-2 to escape the bottom of the table and move up to 14.  Relegation is no longer an issue as long as Everton continues to play with this type of fire and passion.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Diogo Jota, F - Wolverhampton.  Jota's first-half brace, including the equalizer in the 44th minute, allowed Wolverhampton to steal a point on the road and remain near the top of the table in 6th place, losing out of 5th place by only 3 goals to Manchester United, who also had a big weekend defeating Manchester City at the Etihad.

Goat of the Week

The entire Jacksonville Jaguars.  They have quit.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Kepa Arrizabalaga, GK - Chelsea.  Let in a soft goal which started the scoring for Everton, and then a horrible pass out of the goal to Kurt Zouma was intercepted which led to an easy goal, Everton's third.  Second really bad goal scored by a Chelsea opponent late in the game because of a bad pass out of the back by Kepa.

Hit of the Week

Ryan Tannehill on Maurice Hurst.  It was almost as if he had been playing linebacker his entire life.

Breakthrough Performance

Tyler Higbee, TE - Los Angeles Rams.  We have seen flashes from Higbee this season, but as the backup we have not seen how valuable he can be.  Earning the start this week against Seattle, Higbee caught 7 balls for 116 yards, and definitely opens up the field for the Rams' other weapons as Los Angeles won 28-12.

Finally

Ryan Tannehill, QB - Tennessee Titans.  This is the type of performance the Miami Dolphins wanted out of Tannehill in the past few years.  Tannehill was 21-27 for 391 yards and 3 TDs, to go 6-1 as a starter for Tennessee.

Impact Injury

Roquon Smith, LB - Chicago Bears.  There were a lot of injuries this week, but none worse that Smith's, who tore his pectoral muscle while trying to make a tackle on Ezekial Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys.  Smith, the Bears' leading tackler, will be missed as Chicago ends the season with Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota.

Team Rising

Tennessee Titans.  Now at 8-5, the Titans have pulled into a tie atop the AFC South with the Houston Texans, two games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts (with three to play).  As stated earlier, Tennessee and Houston play twice in the last three games, including in Nashville this weekend.

Team Falling

Carolina Panthers.  In a free-fall.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, see e.g., Baltimore Ravens, but we are working off record.)

1. Baltimore Ravens

2. San Francisco 49ers

3. New Orleans Saints 

4. Green Bay Packers
5. Seattle Seahawks

Worst Teams

32. Cincinnati Bengals

31. New York Giants

30. Washington Racists

29. Miami Dolphins

27b. Detroit Lions
27a.  Arizona Cardinals 

Note - The Lions and Cardinals have identical 3-9-1 records, and actually tied each other when they played, so they might as well be tied on this list.

Middle Teams

15. Philadelphia Eagles
16. Indianapolis Colts
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Note - all of these "middle teams" have sub-par records of 6-7, along with Dallas and Oakland, which I rank lower right now.

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Last Entry's Trivia Question was:

Earlier this year, Frank Gore passed Curtis Martin for fourth place in the all-time career rushing yards.  He is now closer to third place than he is to fifth place Martin.  Who is in third place, and how many yards behind third place is Gore?

Answer:  Barry Sanders - at the time I wrote the question.  Gore has since passed Sanders and leads Sanders by 37 yards.  He is 1,420 yards behind Walter Payton.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6. Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs.  By record, this isn't a special game to watch, except for the fact that Denver has been better, and more exciting, in the two games that Drew Lock has started.  So, that makes this game a potential offensive explosion.  

5. Buffalo Bills v. Pittsburgh Steelers.  This game may be traditionally boring, but it is incredibly important for the playoff race, as right now, these two teams hold the two AFC wildcard spots.  This game is incredibly important.

4. Minnesota Vikings v. Los Angeles Chargers.  Minnesota is only 1 game behind the Green Bay Packers for the division lead, but 2 ahead of the Chicago Bears with 3 to play.  Green Bay and Chicago play this week, and Minnesota and Green Bay play next week, with the Bears and Vikings closing out the season.  This game is incredibly important for Minnesota.  The Chargers looked great last week, albeit against the Jaguars.  Can they keep it up?

3. Arsenal v. Manchester City.  Manchester City is in a bit of a rut and Arsenal look much improved as of late.  This game is vital for Manchester City to try to gain ground in the table on Liverpool, and important for Arsenal if they think they can make Europa League next year.

2. Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers.  The greatest rivalry in football is important as Green Bay shoots for a bye and possibly home field advantage while the Bears are barely hanging on for a possible playoff spot.

1. Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans. The resurgent Titans have tied the Texans for the division lead.  This is the first of two times these teams will play in the final three games of the season, and would obviously give the winner a leg up for the division crown.

Trivia

Phillip Rivers has 63 career losses of 3 points or less in his career.  He is tied with this other current starting NFL quarterback.  Who is it?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

My usual crew was somewhat busy, so instead of a sports bar, I headed out to a cigar bar of mine that has televisions - Sunset Cigar Lounge in Jupiter, Florida.  Not sportscentric at all, but on Sundays they did show 3 games, with the sound on the New Orleans - San Francisco game, which turned out to be the best one.  Not super crowded, mostly regulars, but all really nice - albeit interesting people.  The bar/cigar tenders Dawana and Tiffani are always fabulous, and given that it wasn't busy - super attentive (which they usually are anyway). I had never been there on a Sunday before so I do not know if this is usual, but they had several pizzas and pastas, which was free for whomever wanted it - that was a nice perk, although I did not partake because I had already eaten.  Also because I wanted a lowkey day, I only drank Bud Light, but the whiskey selection is great for as small a bar as it is, and it has Clase Azul tequila, one of the bellweathers of the tequila world as far as I am concerned.  I had a couple of light, easy Padron cigars with my day, and it was great.

Now, the bar did have to call the cops on an unruly customer, as she was getting incredibly out of control yelling and cursing at other customers, that were all regulars, and the cops escorted her out at about 2:00 p.m. (she came from somewhere else already drunk), but other than that, it was a good place to watch the games.  Being a smaller location, everybody was talking and arguing the games with everyone else, which was fun.

The only real knock is that they don't have all the games - which isn't really a knock on the place as much as my choice of venue -but it does get downgraded as a sports bar

Sunset Cigar Lounge
251 South U.S. Highway 1
Jupiter, FL 33477
561/203-2096

Final Rating: Philip Rivers - a little old and flawed, but still very consistently good with occasional greatness.

Picks of the Week

Absolutely horrible week,  but I cannot be mad at that.  How was I supposed to know that the likes of Brett Hundley and Ryan Fitzpatrick were going to figure prominently in my losses.  I am away this weekend, so very limited analysis on my picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City -3 at Oakland Raiders
I never would have taken a road intra-divisional favorite on a short week.  However, since I have missed almost every Thursday night game, I went the opposite.  Damnit.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Carolina Panthers
The Bears have played good teams tough at home (See Atlanta, Pittsburgh).

Tampa  Bay Buccaneers +3 at Buffalo  Bills
Buffalo's offense is horrific.  There 3-2 record is basically smoke-and-mirrors.

Tennesse Titans -6 at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is a trainwreck.  Tennessee is starting to get in sync.

New Orleans -3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Although a road favorite, Brees has passed for over 300 yards each of the 6 times he has played Green Bay.  The Packers' offense - which already was a house of cards in the run game, now has questions in the passing game without Aaron Rodgers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Admittedly, this pick is based upon Leonard Fournette being able to play in this game, which is still up in the air.  I just have to think Chris Ivory is enough to run on the Colts if Fournette cannot play.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I really like this Rams team, but it appears Adrian Peterson might have rejuvenated the Cardinals offense - although yards might be tougher against the Rams defense.  Arizona is 5-0-1 in the last 6 games against NFC west opponents and 9-3-1 in the past 13 versus the division.  I don't need Arizona to win, just keep it close.

Miami Dolphins  -3 v. New York Jets
Miami was not ready for the Jets the first game, and I don't think the Dolphins will overlook them this time.  The way Cutler is playing, we should expect a healthy dose of Jay Ajayi against the Jets 28th ranked rush defense.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
I changed this pick 3 or 4 times.  I have no idea, except that Minnesota is better than Chicago, and the Bears handled the Ravens.  Minnesota is shorthanded offensively because of injuries.  Baltimore is just shorthanded offensively.

San Francisco 49ers +6 v. Dallas Cowboys
Every game the Cowboys get Elliott will be important for the rest of the season, but of San Francisco's last 5 losses have been by a total of 13 points.  I'll take a home favorite.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Steelers
The Steelers really have their offense going, with both Bell and Brown being focal points (as they should be).

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Hey, it's the Chargers and I only have to give 1 1/2?  OK.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at New York Giants
While I am already picking too many road favorites.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New England Patriots
This is not last year's Patriots.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 1/2 v. Washington Racists
The Eagles are flying high, and I don't see that slowing down with a loud crowd at home on Monday night against a divisional rival.

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans -6 at Cleveland Browns
So a road favorite as my big bet?  New rule - always pick against the Browns.  They played strong and with emotion the first couple of weeks, but now they don't even know which of the 3, yes 3, quarterbacks they want to use.  Other options for me were:  Jacksonville, New Orleans and Pittsburgh.  I didn't select Jacksonville here because of the uncertainty with Fournette; I didn't select New Orleans because Green Bay always does something to piss me off; and I didn't select Pittsburgh because Cincinnati would be dominated and then score a last minute touchdown to cover, or something equally as weird.

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  41-48-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($550)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,255)