Picks of the Week

Got absolutely hammered last week, and not only that - lost the big bet too!!!  Definite correction from this year, but hopefull prepping for the Saturday games gives me time to process the Sunday/Monday games, and really hit a bounce-back week.  It started well Thursday night.

It is Week 15, so good luck to everyone in your Fantasy Football playoffs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I still hate this pick, even after the Raiders 63-21 victory, but glad I made it!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

This is a tough game to pick, because most of the yearly stats are irrelevant due to Jake Browning and Nick Mullens being the starters.  This is more worrisome for Minnesota, as they had the 8th best passing offense in the NFL.  The return of Justin Jefferson absolutely helps Nick Mullens, but Jake Browning seemed pretty settled in last week.  Plus - home team/short week.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

How can two teams have the exact same, above-.500 record, and yet be so diametrically opposed?  Pittsburgh going downhill, fast.  And on a short week - I'll take the home team (I know, shocking, right?!)

Detroit Lions -5 v. Denver Broncos

I talked to some of the world's leading minds - including several actuaries - and nobody can explain this year's Denver Broncos.  Apparently they have the best defense in the NFL since their annihilation at the hands of the Dolphins (70-20 for those that forgot), but that still only gives them the 22nd best scoring defense, 24th best passing defense, and 32nd ranked rushing and total defense.  Crazily enough, they do have the 2nd best 3rd down percentage defense.  The Lions offense is just the opposite (3rd in total offense; 5th in rushing; 7th in passing and scoring).  Plus, they are at home, and just look ... better.  Disregard the Bears loss because they Bears just play them tough in general.  Sometimes it IS about matchups.

Chicago Bears +3 at Cleveland Browns

The Bears have played tough in November and December, and look to keep that up against a Joe Flacco-led offense whose primary dimension - running the ball - plays into the Bears 2nd-ranked rushing defense.

New England Patriots +8 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The struggling Chiefs head to New England to play a team that hasn't lost by more than this spread line since week 8.  It is supposed to be rainy and windy in Foxboro.

New York Jets +8 v. Miami Dolphins

Won't the real Zach Wilson please stand up, please stand up.  Honestly, this pick is less about Wilson, and more about the fact that a LOT of key Dolphins could miss this game, including several lineman and Tyreek Hill.  Plus, the Dolphins played Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

New York Giants +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

And, speaking of ... If any team can prepare for Tommy DeVito at QB, it is the New Orleans Saints, who basically have their own DeVito in Taysom Hill.  But, New Orleans' defense is 26th against the rush, so we should see a healthy dose of Saquan Barkley, or, at least enough to keep this close.  I hate this pick because the Giants also played Monday night.  Ugh!

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears' dream of back-to-back overall number 1 picks is still alive-and-kicking thanks to the dreadul Panthers offense (30th in scoring; 30th in total offense; 31st in passing offense).  The Panthers D is great against the pass (3rd), but part of that is teams are easily head and run the ball almost exclusively late (22nd rush defense).  Since Atlanta has found Bijan Robinson, I look for a healthy dose of running the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

As of now, it looks like Aaron Jones will return for the Packers, and even with Jones I expect this to be a close game.  If he cannot return, or if he is limited by his injury, and with Christian Watson out - Tampa should cover on the road.  Plus Green Bay played Monday night, and I already picked 2 teams from Monday Night even though it is a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -12 at Arizona Cardinals

So, picking San Francisco as an intradivisional double-digit favorite last week hurt me, but even then they actually beat Seattle by 12, and Seattle is a much better tean than Arizona, which is 27th in scoring and 24th in total defense.

Los Angeles Rams -6 at Washington Commanders

At least the Rams get the 4:00 time slot coming from the west coast.  Anybody wonder if the Commanders defense is missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young yet?

Dallas Cowboys +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Even though Buffalo beat the Chiefs last week, they are still 2-3 in their last 5 games.  On paper this is a close game with Dallas and Buffalo 1st and 5th in scoring; and 4th and 6th, respectively, in scoring defense.  In close games I take the points.  Also, this game is not going to be as close as on paper.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is a solid playoff team, but, they just look like they are missing a little something when watching them play (like a Trevor Lawrence connection with Calvin Ridley).  Hopefully they get that back before the playoffs to make the AFC a bit more exciting.  But for now, they host the Ravens who have won 3 in a row and 7 of their last 8.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is led by Drew Lock, who will not be enough to overcome the damage Philadelphia's offense is going to do to the 26th ranked scoring defense in the NFL (and 28th in total defense).

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

Tennessee gets the Big Bet because they are home - and most of my other favorite picks are on the road.  Plus, just last week they beat the vaunted Dolphins offense by holding Miami to only 27.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  112-86-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,635

Picks of the Week

 

Another 8-8 week snakebitten by the Pick of the Week.  Seriously, how on earth did the Raiders let that one falter, only to win on a FG in overtime.  They easily could have had a TD on that last drive too, but I get it, take the guaranteed points.  UGH!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Home teams are 0-4 against the spread this year.  Yuch.  At least Cincy squeaking by worked in my suicide pool.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I am only making this pick because I think that Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor might actually be calling the plays this game.  No official announcement on that front has been made, but if Nagy makes the calls, this is almost for sure a guaranteed loss.

New York Giants +7 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are definitely the better team, but the Giants have played pretty close in their three losses.  The Saints are coming off a pretty good-sized wins, which means in Jameis Winston's up-and-down career, he is due for a down game.  Gimme the points.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's offense is still prolific, but the Eagles defense is performing way better than the Chiefs' defense this year to date.  All 3 of KC's games have been within 6 points, and that game was a loss for the Chiefs.  Eagles on a short week could hurt, but I like them getting a full touchdown rather than 6 and the hook.

Buffalo Bills -17 1/2 v. Houston Texans

This spread is preposterous, especially for an NFL game.  The easy bet is on the Texans.  But, there is always one bet that seems way too easy, so you should go the opposite direction.  I think this is that game.

  

Carolina Panthers +4 at Dallas Cowboys

My mind initially saaw the Cowboys as the pick.  But, this Carolina defense only gives 224 yards (1st), 146 passing yards (1st), 45 rushing yards (1st) and 10 points (2nd) per game.  I expect the Cowboys will exceed those averages, but their pedestrian defense (26th total defense, 31st passing defense, 13th in scoring defense) will be what lets them down and keeps this game close.  Plus, the Cowboys are coming off a short week.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Minnesota Vikings

This pick is based upon my belief that Dalvin Cook, although playing, will not be 100%.  Another key is Cleveland's 2nd best rushing offense versus Minnesota's 20th ranked rushing defense.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

In what looks to be the dreariest game of the day, I will take points.  Why?  Indianapolis' top-ranked unit is its passing defense (13th), and Miami's tap-ranked unit is its passing defense (19th).  Every other unit is worse, offensively and defensively.  Ugh.

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

New York's offense is putrid (30th total offense, 30th passing offense, 29th rushing offense, 32nd scoring offense).  Couple that with a middling rush defense (15th) against Derrick Henry, it's Tennessee.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

The 29th (Washington) and 30th (Atlanta) scoring defenses in the NFL.  With that being a horrible draw, which team scores more?  Washington is 19th whereas Atlanta is 29th.  I'll take Washington.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Statistically, the Cardinals are better, especially offensively.  But, these two high-flying offenses (Arizona 1st in scoring offense; Los Angeles 3rd), will see this game decided by defense, possibly with Jalen Ramsey making a big stop.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle is a shocking 1-2 whereas San Francisco is a very good 2-1, losing only to a last-second Aaron Rodgers drive last week.   Seattle's defense has been abysmal this year so far, but San Francisco's offense is slightly below average in everything, so I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Both defenses match-up favorably in this game, which is saying something since Green Bay was torched early by Jameis Winston.  Pittsburgh's offense is helmed by the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, whereas Aaron Rodgers has shaken off that week 1 loss.

Baltimore Ravens pick 'em at Denver Broncos

Denver has the opportunity to quiet those opponents that are complaining that Denver's 3-0 means nothing because they haven't played anybody (Giants, Jaguars, Jets).  The Broncos defense is good (2nd overall, 3rd passing, 2nd rushing, 1st scoring), but A LOT of that can be attributed to their opponents' offensive ineptness.  Baltimore is first in rushing and 8th in rushing defense.  I like Baltimore's chances on the road, but I wish they were getting a point or two.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

They over-hyped game of the week because of Brady's return, but I expect this game to not be close.  Although Mac Jones has the 1 win from all rookie QBs this year, it came at the expense of the Jets, and another rookie QB.  To prove that Rob Gronkowski's rib injury means nothing, I predict Brady throws a touchdown to Cameron Brate.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This game should be a fun one to wach as the Raiders are 1st in the NFL in passing offense and the Chargers are 4th in passing offense.  But, the Raiders are better at converting points from their yards (6th in the NFL versus 19th).  The defenses are fairly similar (13th versus 16th in total defense), except the Chargers are dead last in rushing defense and 28th in third-down conversion defense.  I actually typed all of this before I mentally made my pick, so I talked myself into the Raiders.

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

I hate picking road teams for my big bet, but given how awfule I have been at my guarantee, I have to change it up.  Missing stud receivers only means more Derrick Henry, with a surprise splash of Anthony Firkser.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  23-25

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($945)

Picks of the Week - Super Wild Card Weekend

 

As I predicted, week 17 killed me, especially since none of us would predict Doug Pederson would pull Jalen Hurts for Nathan Sudfield.  This is why we should never bet Week 17, except that I have fans that expect if from me.  Hopefully the playoffs bring me good look.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Look, Buffalo wins this game, but the Indianapolis defense is legit (2nd in rushing defense and 7th in total defense).  Buffalo wins because they are 3rd in passing offense and Indianapolis is 20th in passing defense, but this still means that this game will be close.  Primarily because of Johnathan Taylor going aginst a middling 17th ranked rushing defense.  Buffalo wins by 3.

Los Angeles Rams + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

A second straight game where I take the points with the visiting team.  But, this is not your normal visiting team.  The Rams have the best defense in the NFL (3rd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing defene, scoring defense and total defense).  Jalen Ramsey can lock down DK Metcalf, and Aaron Donald is the best player in the NFL.  Seattle may win this game, but it will be super close.

Washington Football Team +8 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

My third straight game where I take the points.  Tom Brady has been horrible in night games, and given that he is not mobile, the Washington defensive line, with four first round draft picks (Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Marquez Sweat) is going to give the immobile Brady trouble.  If Alex Smith was healthy, I would predict Washington to win this game outright, but given that he isn't, they lose by a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry.  The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens.  In short, I'll take the points.

Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This is not a homer bet.  The Saints win this game.  But, this spread is way too high, especially given that Alvin Kamara hasn't been able to practice since last week due to Covid protocols.  The Saints average 30 points per game, and the Bears average giving up 23, well within the point spread.  This game screams back door cover with a late Allen Robinson touchdown.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Cleveland Browns

Well, I have to pick one favorite, right?  And, I normally would have selected Cleveland in this game as they are playing really well going into the playoffs.  But, they just barely beat Pittsburgh last week with the Steelers starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and now, head coach Kevin Stefanski is out due to Covid protocols.  Steelers roll.

  

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry.  The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season.  Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens.  In short, I'll take the points.

Give me points at home in the playoffs!

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  127-126-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1125)