Picks of the Week

 

I put in no analysis last week, and it showed in the results.  Hopefully a little thought could me a few more wins this week.  Got off to a good start on Thursday night, and hopefully can keep that rolling!

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I hate giving up double digit points to an intradivisional rival, but the fact that this is a short week gave me cover - see what I did there? - to take the Chiefs.  No way was a sweating the ultimately 19-8 victory!  (You better not believe that!)

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Baltimore wins this easily.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears getting points at home, with a suddenly resurgent offense (9th in rushing, 11th in scoring and a now-potent passing attack) going aginst the 22nd ranked passing defense, and 20th overall).

Washington Commanders  +1 at Atlanta Falcons

If Washington can keep doing whatever they did in the second half against the Bears, they might have found an offense under Sam Howell.  But, it was the Bears.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems to clearly be the class of the NFL right now, so why would I pick Cleveland, with a backup quarterback?  Well, it is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 slot, and, Cleveland's defense is legit!  First in total defense, passing defense and third-down percentage, 3rd in scoring defense, and 4th in rushing defense.  San Francisco very well may win, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points under these circumstance.  Now, let's see who plays QB.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This was a tough call for me, but New Orleans has been playing much better since Alvin Kamara's return, and Houston's strength, it's passing game, could be negated by New Orleans' passing defense, which is 4th in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

This is just a stupid line.  Just stupid.  Nobody in their right mind would give up this many points in an NFL game.  Carolina's defense is solid, also, against the pass at least (6th).  But Miami can run over just about anyone, even with Achane out.  Mostert is fast himself, and a solid running back.  And, something stupid happens every week.  Why not this game, at home, in the heat, against a rookie quarterback experiencing growing pains.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 v. Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew's return to Jacksonville, and don't laugh, but dude can throw.  He has a 95.1 rating so far this year in limited action.  But, Jacksonville seems to be playing better - in London, mind you - than they were in a week 1 31-21 victory over Indianapolis, in Indiana.  I expect this game to be close, but Jacksonville wins it, and covers.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. New England Patriots

Nobody wants to watch this game, and I feel the wheels have come off the Patriots wagon.  Even with the Raiders on a short week, I feel I have to pick them here.  Is it time for Bailey Zappe?  So, the Patriots keep losing and end up with the number 4 pick.  Trade it to Chicago - who holds Carolina's number 1 pick, for a swap in number 1s, a 2025 #1, a 2026 #1, and a 2024 #3.  Go Raiders!!!

Detroit Lions -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although the Buccaneers are much better than expected playing behind a resurgent Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are just better.  And the fact they are 9th in total defense is impressive as well.  Detroit can book a ticket to the playoffs playing in the less-than-stellar NFC North; meanwhile the NFC South is equally less-than-stellar. 

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Even though they are only 2-3, the Rams rank 8th in total offense, 5th in passing offense and 14th in scoring.  AND Cooper Kupp is back after knocking off the rust last week with 8 catches for 118 yards.  Arizona's defense leads a lot to be desired, ranking 26th in passing defense, 27th in scoring, and 28th overall.  I expcet the Rams to put up 35 and cruise to a win.

New York Jets +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are undefeated and the Jets are playing Zach Wilson.  But, hear me out here...Wilson has been better, and the Jets defense can be really tough.  Plus, the Eagles haven't really blown anyone out - with a 25-11 victory over Tampa in week 3 their largest margin. Even last week the Eagles beat the Rams by 9 with two 4th quarter field goals from Jake Elliott.  I believe they stay undefeated, but win by 4.

New York Giants +15 at Buffalo Bills

There is no way I am giving up 2 touchdowns or more on 2 different games this week.  Since I am already giving up 14 to Carolina in the Dolphins game, I will not do it here.  Why this game?  Well, I think Daniel Jones is done - whether for good or just in New York I don't know - so I think the team may have more confidence and be better offensively with Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor was 9-12 for 86 yards and 14 yards rushing in limited time last week.  Plus, Taylor will try to actually target their best pass-catcher, Darren Waller.  On top of that, things are "optimistic" that Saquon Barkley will return.  He is a game changer, and can be the difference between losing by 28 and losing by 13.

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys defense is going to come out IRATE after last week's drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. And although corner is a problem right now for Dallas, with passing being the best part of the Chargers offense - even more so with the return of Austin Ekeler - the Chargers' 31st ranked defense, and last ranked pass defense might be just what Dallas needs to re-invigorate CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas offense.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Even though the Browns and Jets are at home getting lots of points, and the Giants are away getting lots of points, I just could not pull the trigger on them as my big bet.  So, here is a home team giving away a few points.  I just have to hope the Bengals did find themselves last week and that it continues over to this week.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  40-34-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $380