NFL REGULAR SEASON REVIEW

 

The NFL regular season is over, and the playoffs will soon (5 days) be upon us.  So before that begins, let us take a look at the regular season as a whole, and what each team needs to address in the offseason. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (14-3) Took control of this division after a week 5 win at Buffalo, and never looked back.  This team could use a Wide Receiver/Tight End playmaker to take it over the top, given Stefon Diggs' volatility and legal problems.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) The Bills went 3-1 in the last quarter, but still just don't look sharp.  A big-play receiver and a strong run-stuffing DT should be the focus in the offseason.

Miami Dolphins (7-10) Quinn Ewers looks OK and could be serviceable - maybe more - as a starter.  The Dolphins need to get rid of Tua's contract and focus on finding strong, stable offensive lineman.

New York Jets (3-14)

Horrible year for the Jets.  They need a foundational quarterback above everything else.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

The Steelers went 3-1 to cement the AFC North title on the last day.  Despite making the playoffs, they need to focus on a lot; wide receiver to run with D.K. Metcalf, offensive lineman to improve the running game, and an improved secondary.

Baltimore Ravens (8-9)

Injuries to Lamar Jackson hurt this season.  That and a horrible secondary led to their demise.  They should focus on a veteran corner, and a young, talented corner in the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)

Another team just crippled by injuries.  They need to focus on a big defensive tackle and linebackers.

Cleveland Browns (5-12)

Cleveland had a very good 2024 draft:  Mason Graham DT, Carson Schewsinger (LB), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Harold Fannin, Jr. (TE), and Shadeur Sanders (QB) all hit.  They primarily need to focus on obtaining a playmaker for Sanders at WR, and protection as well in the OL.

 

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

What a year.  Might focus on a big-play corner or pass rusher.

Houston Texans (12-5)

They have won 9 in a row!!!  Certainly clicking at the right time.  Team should focus on a dynamic running back, and nobody would be mad at offensive linemen.

Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

Lost seven straight to end the season without Daniel Jones.  Offseason focus should be on bolstering the secondary and another pass rusher to complement Laiatu Latu.

Tennessee Titans (3-14)

The focus should be on playmakers and protection for Cam Ward, who looks legitimate despite being on a last-place team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (14-3)

Finished the year out 3-1 to secure home-field advantage in the AFC.  They need to focus on a dynamic running back, and a playmaker at receiver.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers remain dangerous as they enter the playoffs.  They are solid in every phase, so they just need to focus on adding talent at any position that is available to them.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

The Chiefs finished 0-4 without Patrick Mahomes due to injury.  They need to focus on an every-down running back, a possession receiver with hands to compliment Rashee Rice, and replacement for Travis Kelce!(?)

Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

Earning the number 1 pick in the draft gifts them Fernando Mendoza.  They need to focus on a coaching staff that can unlock his best qualities and develop him into a star, and protect him with lineman.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

Not the same team as last year, but they could still make a run.  The team needs to focus on the passing game.  They have the players, so maybe a new passing-game coordinator, or offensive coordinator?

Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)

This team has more talent than their record.  After waiving Trevon Diggs, they really need to focus on the secondary, at corner and safety.  A pass rusher wouldn't hurt either.

Washington Commanders (5-12)

A healthy Jayden Daniels would mean the world to this team.  Offseason focus should be on a complimentary playmaker to Terry McLaurin, and improvement to the secondary.

New York Giants (4-13)

The first overall pick would have been nice, but that didn't happen.  They need a big-time playmaking wide receiver, some receiver depth, and a run-stuffing defensive tackle and linebacker on the defensive side of the ball.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (11-6)

This season has exceeded expectations for the Bears, and despite obvious holes in the team, they do not quit.  Their focus in the offseason should be on a top pass rusher to compliment Montez Sweat, and linebacker talent (either inside or for coverage - whichever help is available).

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)

Lost a few down the stretch -  including to the Bears - to gift the Bears the division. Still really talented, the team should focus on a true number 1 receiver (I feel they have a bunch of good, not great receivers), and perhaps some linebacking help.

Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

An up-and-down year for the Vikings.  They need to focus on whether J.J. McCarthy is really it.  If so, figure out what works for him because they have the playmakers.  Perhaps some offensive lineman and interior defenders to round-out the roster.

Detroit Lions (9-8)

Disappointing season for the Lions.  They need to focus on acquiring a secondary pass rusher, and maybe some secondary help.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers (8-9)

Snuck into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.  They need a lot of help.  With some talent here, they should focus on loading up on both lines.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

Missed the playoffs despite defeating Carolina in the last week of the season.  They need to focus on secondary help as well as some young blood on offense.  A pass rusher would help too.

Atlanta Falcons (8-9)

The dreaded loser in the three-team tiebreaker.  Running game is sound, passing game decent when Michael Penix and Drake London are healthy.  Some strong lineman (offensive and defensive) should be the focus this offseason.

New Orleans Saints (6-11)

The Saints went 3-1 in the last quarter.  They need to focus on a young Alvin Kamara replacement to grow with Tyler Shough, and lineman to pave the way for that running back (and protect Shough).

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The best team in the league.  Very solid in all phases.  They should maybe focus on a block/catch TE and a pass rusher.

Los Angeles Rams (11-3)

Another really solid team, finishing off a solid year.  Maybe a shut-down corner or a pass rusher.

San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Easily the best division in football.  San Francisco should focus on secondary help and linebacker help/depth.  Fred Warner is not going to last forever.

Arizona Cardinals (3-14)

Winless in the last quarter.  They need literally everything.  They should focus on deciding whether Kyler Murray is their long-term QB first, and then just grab as much talent as possible anywhere on the field.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the three-quarter point)

1.  Seattle Seahawks 14-3 (4)

2.  San Francisco 49ers 14-3 (7)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 14-3 (3)

4.  New England Patriots 14-3 (1)

5.  Denver Broncos 14-3 (2)

6.  Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 (10)

7.  Houston Texans 12-5 (12)

8.  Buffalo Bills 12-5 (9)

9.  Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 (6)

10.  Chicago Bears 11-6 (8)

11.  Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 (13)

12.  Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (16)

13.  Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 (5)

14.  Detroit Lions 9-8 (11)

15.  Minnesota Vikings 9-8 (22)

16.  Baltimore Ravens 8-9 (21)

17. Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (24)

18.  Carolina Panthers 8-9 (17)

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 (15)

20.  Indianapolis Colts 8-9 (14)

21.  Dallas Cowboys 7-9-1 (18)

22.  Miami Dolphins 7-10 (20)

23.  New Orleans Saints 6-11 (29)

24.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 (19)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 (23)

26.  Cleveland Browns 5-12 (25)

27.  Washington Commanders 5-12 (26)

28.  New York Giants 4-13 (31)

29.  Tennessee Titans 3-14 (30)

30.  Arizona Cardinals 3-14 (28)

31.  Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 (32)

32.  New York Jets 3-14 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Minnesota Vikings +7, Atlanta Falcons +7, New Orleans Saints +6, Green Bay Packers -8, Indianapolis Colts -6, Baltimore Ravens -5, Kansas City Chiefs -5

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Drake Maye is right there

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns - Not even close

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers Tyler Shough closing FAST!

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns - Pearce and Emmanwori next

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars - And this isn't even close, but Vrabel will win

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts - Who knew he was this good or important?

Comeback Player of the Year - Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers - Back to Form

And yes, I know the NFL does the MVP, then Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.  I don't care.

NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

THREE-QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)

Picks of the Week - NFL - Week 13

 

Hey, I actually won my Big Bet last week!!!  But, still underwater.  I hate this year.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Detroit Lions

Both squads are in a 3-way battle for conference supremacy (along with the Chicago Bears).  I am going to go with the Packers defense (3rd in Total Defense/4th in Scoring Defense/5th in Pass Defense/6th in Rush Defense) especially since they are getting points.  I cannot pick all 3 home teams on a short week, right?

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Fresh off a really ugly win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are getting points on a short week at home.  Kansas City had a great comeback over the Indianapolis Colts but are still in a life-or-death game every week in order to make the playoffs.  That is going to catch up to them eventually, and this number 3 offense is really clicking at this moment.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Once gain home team/short week.  The Bengals should get a boost from the return of Joe Burrow, but their one-demensionality on offense (30th in rushing), could be detrimental against a rapidly-improving Baltimore Ravens defense that although 22nd in the NFL, that is serious improvement over the last few weeks from when they were ranked dead last.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears have pulled a lot of rabbits out of their collective hats, and on paper actually look a bit better than Philadelphia, but there is no question the Eagles are a better team.  And, they are at home on Friday, I'll give the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I know I should pick Tennessee as a home intra-divisional dog, but they just don't warrant the pick  right now, not at under a touchdown.  Next-to-last in offense and 26th in defense, facing a Jacksonville team that suddenly finds itself only 1 game behind the division-leading Colts in the AFC South.

 

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The J-E-T-S- Jets-Jets-Jets are awful.  Just awful.  

Los Angeles Rams -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Going to violate a gambling law no matter which way I pick, as Carolina is on a short week, but LA is traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window.  So, going against the double-digit favorite would be the next step, but I can't do that, as the Rams might be the best team in football, and the 49ers may have broken Carolina's spirit on Monday night by winning a game Carolina had every right to win.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New Orleans Saints

Miami on a two-game winning streak; let's make it 3, and they cover.  Saints star Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and that could be a tremendous loss for a rookie quarterback.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is looking like the Buccaneers are getting Bucky Irving back; not so much for Trey Benson and Arizona.  Although the Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

As great as Cleveland's defense is, they are not even close to the level of the Houston Texans.  The number 1 defense versus the number 2 offense.  The big difference is that Houston's offense is mediocre, whereas Indianapolis' defense gives up a lot of yards (24th).  This game is close, maybe a field goal either way.

Minnesota Vikings +11 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks absolutely win this game, as J.J. McCarthy has ... let's call it struggled.  But 11 1/2 is a lot of points.  A lot.  So, I'll take them.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams in the playoff hunt, but the Bills have lost 2 out of 3 and 3 out of 6.  The Steelers have just looked - mediocre.  So long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over, Bills win by 10.  But that is a big IF ...

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Only 8 1/2?  Really?  And the Raiders might be without Ashton Jeanty.

Denver Broncos -6 at Washington Commanders

Denver should be fresher coming off of a bye.  And, playing against the 31st ranked defense in Total Defense that is also 29th against the pass (and 28th overall) might just be what Bo Nix needs to unlock Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Tony Franklin and the rest of the passing game.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots are better and will win, for sure.  But the Giants have played 4 straight relatively close games, and Jameis Winston is a national treasure.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Getting points at home, with all of the surrounding situation for the 49ers as mentioned above.  I am betting on defense. 

Last Week Record: 6-7-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 84-93-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,865) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 12

 

An actual winning week, but once again I am undone by the damn Big Bet, which I lost --- AGAIN!  I just cannot figure this season out.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am supposed to pick the home team on a short week, I know.  And Houston does have the best defense in the NFL.  But Buffalo scored 44 on a very good Tampa Bay defense last week, and I just cannot pick Davis Mills in a prime time game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Chicago Bears -2 1/2

Both teams defenses give up A LOT of yards.  The Bears are 27th and the Steelers 28th in Total Defense.  The difference is the Bears are 4th in Total Offense, AND they are at home.  Now that is what I would have written if the Chicago Bears were not literally playing without ALL 3 starting linebackers!!!  All three.  Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Noah Sewell.  And they are 27th in Total Defense WITH those guys.  Ugh.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay's defense is 5th in Total Defense and 7th in scoring defense, and J.J. McCarthy has proven himself to be very pedestrian with a 61.7 QB Rating.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Although Kansas City needs to play desperate in this game just to have a chance at making the playoffs, and desperation and talent are a dangerous combination, Indianapolis is just a better team, especially offensively.  KC may win, but I am going to take the points, as the Colts score enough to cover - at least.

 

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati has the worst defense in the NFL (last in Total Defense, last in rushing defense, last in scoring defense and 31st in passing defense).  That is just too much to overcome while J'Marr Chase is suspended and Joe Flacco - although efficient - is still aging.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a lot of points, but this is an unconventional year.  AND the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets are B-A-D!

Detroit Lions -10 v. New York Giants

The Lions are going to be chomping at the bit after being stifled by the Eagles' defense last week after exploding against the Commanders.  I think this could be a three-score game.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Honestly, I just took two double-digit favorites, why not take a third?  (Because that is stupid, but this year has been crazy ...).

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This pick is predicated solely on the return of Trey Benson, coupled with Jacksonville overestimating their decimation of the Los Angeles Chargers last week, and thus under-preparing for Arizona.  If no Benson, this pick is reversed.

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Getting points at home against an intra-divisional rival is always going to be my go-to play, even though it is a short week for the Cowboys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Los Angeles Rams

This was a very tough game for me to pick.  It might feature the return of Buccaneers' starting running back Bucky Irving, and if it does, he would be well-rested for some reps/carries and alternate with Rachaad White and the surprisingly spry Sean Tucker to at least keep the Rams defense guessing.  Will that be enough to win?  Likely not, especially on the road.  But a 30-24 score with the Rams winning?  I can see that.

Carolina Panthers +7 at San Francisco 49ers

I am taking Carolina because of the points, and because Rico Dowdle is having a heckuva season running the ball (4th in the NFL), because San Francisco is still without Fred Warner, and nobody has figured out Carolina and how they are 6-5 this year.  So, since my first impression is that San Francisco should win easily, I am picking Carolina.

Byes:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

It seems like this year I am going to get this pick wrong anyway, might as well really go down behind Shadeur Sanders' first start!

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 78-86

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $75

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,845) 

Picks of the Week

I guess putting some thought and analysis into games can help.  13-2 BABY!!!  Quite possibly my best week ever, even including weeks before I kept this blog.  Now, I know that a reversal is coming, and probably deserved, so I am going to tempt fate and just brag about this week for a while, until that reversal occurs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

There would have to be a very compelling reason for me to select the visiting team on a short week.  The Jaguars getting points is that compelling reason.

Chicago Bears +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The obvious selection here is the Raiders, but when not one, but TWO backup quarterbacks will be starting a game, strange things will happen, like maybe a 8-6 Raiders victory!

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

Buffalo Bills -8 at New England Patriots

This New England team cannot score points (31st in the league at 12 per game), and they cannot teams from scoring (Tied for 24th in the league.)  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 3rd in scoring and 3rd in scoring defense.

New York Giants +3 v. Washington Commanders

I actually like thsi Commanders squad a little bit more than most, but I am making this selection on a feeling that Saquon Barkley with a game under his belt is going to be closer to his real self, and that will open up some passing lanes for Darren Waller as well.  Close game, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For all of the tealk about the 3-2 Buccaneers being the surprise team in the NFC South, the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons are about even or better in most offensive stats, and are 2nd in the NFL in total defense.  Imagine if they had a quarterback?!

Detroit Lions +3 at Baltimore Ravens

This is strength on strength.  Detroit's 3rd-ranked offense versus Baltimore's 3rd-ranked defense.  The Lions are the number 4 passing team in the league and 8th rushing team.  Baltimore is the 2nd-best passing defense and 9th-best rushing defense.  Detroit is the 4th-highest scoring team, and Baltimore is the 4th stingiest defense.  The difference?  Detroit's defense is better than Baltimore's offense.

Arizona Cardinals +9 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona is a really bad squad, on both sides of the ball, with the exception that they use to be able to run the ball with James Conner - but he is on IR.  But, Seattle isn't THAT good to  be giving up 9 plus points.  They only score 24 a game, and give up 21.6.  I'll take the points and avoid watching this game.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have won several games selecting Pittsburgh as an underdog this year.  But not this game against this offense.  The Rams are 5th in total offense and 6th in passing.  The Steelers are 30th in total defense and 25th in passing defense.  I expect the Rams to put up more than enough points to coast, even if TJ Watt gets a sack or two.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Denver Broncos

Only because Aaron Jones returning makes him the best player on the field for either team.  Another game to avoid watching!

Kansas City Chiefs -6 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City hasn't exactly been lighting teams up.  With the exception of the Bears game, KC has played teams pretty close, including a boring 19-8 performance against the Broncos last week.  So, taking the points seems obvious here.  But, then we see the Chargeres are last in the league in passing defense and next-to-last in total defense, so if there is a team against which the Chiefs could solve some of their offensive problems, this would be it.  And ... the Chargers played Monday night, so they are on a short week.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

These are the two best offenses in the league.  The Eagles defense is just a bit better than the Dolphins.  When something is seemingly close, I'll take the points.  I don't like this pick though, and I wouldn't like it if I picked Philly, either.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco looked good - or at least as good as any offense has looked against the Browns this year - in a loss, whereas the Vikings looked bad in a win against the lowly Bears.  I expect San Francisco to bounce back in a big way.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

I don't like any of these picks strongly enough to make them my big bet, so I landed here.  I don't like this one because I hate giving up points on the road; but so was Atlanta.  I thought about the Giants at home, but I am not comfortable with that pick.  KC merited consideration, but they have been a bit sluggish.  In short, I just felt more confident in Cleveland than anybody else.

Last Week's Record:  13-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  53-36-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1,230

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,610

Are you Ready for some Football?!

It is that time of the year again, time for the start of college football.  We have already had a fascinating start to the season with 6 ranked teams losing (and a record-breaking 7th to fall tonight, as FSU and Ole Miss - two ranked teams - faceoff in Orlando).  What would the start of college football be without a preseason All-American list? Once again, I am here to give you my preseason All-Americans. As usual, there will be more than 11 on each side, to account for the different types of formations (spread, three receiver set, 4-3, 3-4, etc). I explain some of my picks, while others I do not. Why? Because I can.  (Starters in capitals).

Offense

QB - DESHAUN WATSON, Clemson; Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech; Greg Ward, Jr.,  Houston  - Watson is one of the easiest selections on this list.  Mahomes might be the biggest and strongest quarterback that Kliff Kingsbury has ever had at Texas Tech and Greg Ward, Jr. is the best quarterback nobody (except Florida State) has heard of.

RB - LEONARD FOURNETTE, LSU; CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, Stanford; Dalvin Cook, Florida State; Nick Chubb, Georgia; Samaje Perine, Oklahoma - The returning talent of this group is absolutely astounding.  Any of these five could be the load-carrying feature on this all-star team.  I start McCaffrey because he blocks, and catches better than Cook.

WR - JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, USC; MIKE WILLIAMS, Clemson; Christian Kirk, Texas A & M; Calvin Ridley, Alabama; Corey Davis, Western Michigan - Nowhere near the names of the other positions (especially running back), but this is an exciting group of receivers.  Kirk is a threat to score every single time he touches the football.

TE - O.J. HOWARD, Alabama; Jake Butt, Michigan - Howard makes his third straight appearance on this list.  Although Butt will likely have better stats because of the overall talent of the skill positions at Alabama, Howard is a beast.

OL - CAM ROBINSON, Alabama (T); RODERICK JOHNSON, FSU (T); PAT ELFLEIN, Ohio State (C); DAN FEENEY, Indiana (G);  DORIAN JOHNSON, Pittsburgh (G); Zach Banner, USC; Conor McDermott, USC; Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame - Elflein returns from last year's All-American team, and Feeney is one reason why Jordan Howard was such an effective runner at Indiana last year.  Robinson and Johnson are the prototypical college star tackles.

Defense

DE - MYLES GARRETT, Texas A & M; JONATHAN ALLEN, Alabama; Charles Harris, Missouri - Between Garrett and Allen, we could see 50+ tackles for loss this  year.  Harris completes the SEC trifecta on the outside of the line.

DT - MALIK MCDOWELL, Michigan State; CARLOS WATKINS, Clemson; Lowell Lotulelei, Utah - Not just big space eaters, McDowell and Watkins both make plays from the interior of the defense.

LB - RAEKWON MCMILLAN, Ohio State, REUBEN FOSTER, Alabama; DEVONTE FIELDS, Louisville; Anthoney Walker, Northwestern; Jabrill Peppers, Michigan; Tim Williams, Alabama - With McMillan on the field, you better diversify your plays, bitches.  Foster is a tackling machine, and Fields is the type of playmaker that has moved Louisville into the upper echelon of college football programs.

CB - DESMOND KING, Iowa; JOURDAN LEWIS, Michigan; Jalen Tabor, Florida - Desmond King won the Jim Thorpe award as the nation's best defensive back last year, with 8 interceptions.  Lewis had 20 passes defensed.  Tabor is the second consecutive Jalen to make this list.

S - DERWIN JAMES, Florida State; BUDDA BAKER, Washington; Jamal Adams, LSU - JAMES is the heir apparent to Jaylen Ramsey, while Baker returns after a phenomenal year last year for the Huskies.

Special Teams

K - ANDY PHILLIPS, Utah - Phillips was on the team last year (behind Aguayo) for no reason that I just thought we should have three kickers on the team (kickers means kickers and punters).

P - JK SCOTT, Alabama - A booming punter who grew 1 1/2 inches this offseason.

KR/PR - EVAN BERRY, Tennessee - Berry led the nation in kickoff return average last  year, beating second place by almost 5 whole yards per return.  No backups needed because the two Christians can also return very well (McCaffrey and Kirk - not a religious reference).