Picks of the Week - NFL Week 16

 

Worst week of the year, and that is all I am going to say.  OUCH!  (Well, besides "OUCH").

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams are the best team in football right now, and Puka Nacua might be the most underrated star in the game.  BUT, picking the Rams would violate two betting rules:  (1) Home team on a short week; and (2) Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle.  So, I can live with picking the team I think is the second-best team in the NFL right now (at least until Sam Darnold gets into the playoffs).

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I hate, nay, I HATE!!!, this pick.  But see the above analysis.  I guess I will just hope that the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL can keep this game close.  UGH!

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Another short week, home, intra-divisional underdog.  Only this time the "favorites" were about 4 feet from losing to the Bears two weeks ago and since have lost their best player (Micah Parsons) and most exciting receiver (Christian Watson) to injury. 

 

Buffalo Bills -10 at Cleveland Browns

Double digits are a lot of points to give to a team with the 3rd best defense (and best against the pass) in the NFL.  But last week was a crucial turning point for the Bills in their comeback win against New England, and the Browns, who got blown out by the Bears.  Last week may have cemented each teams' fate for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers +1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I make this pick solely on the fact that I think Justin Herbert has to be healed a bit from his hand surgery by now (as he has not looked great the past two weeks playing with an injury), and based on the fact that Dallas is in the central time zone not the eastern time zone.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle, with first place in the NFC South on the line!

 

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at New York Giants

If we get last week's Minnesota Vikings, this game will not even be close.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This game will cement Travis Kelce's retirement.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins gave a potential playoff berth a helluva run, but that ended Monday night in dramatic fashion, and this team will likely lose its spirit as well.  Plus, this is a short week for them, and Joe Burrow might be auditioning for trade value.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

I am not sold that last week was the breakout that we have all been waiting for from the Broncos offense, and these two teams are remarkably even statistically (Jaguars 17th in Total Offense and 9th in Total Defense; Broncos 15th in Total Offense and 8th in Total Defense).  So, I'll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Falcons are just better, for whatever that means.  Although, Jacoby Brissett has had a great run as QB1.  If the Cardinals are smart, they are re-thinking Kyler Murray.

Houston Texans -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Kenny Pickett is very aptly named.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Is it time for Detroit to make a push for the playoffs - and man will they be dangerous should they make it - or is it time for Pittsburgh to end a team's playoff possibilities two weeks in a run?  I lean to the former, and given that Pittsburgh is on a short week, I'll take the Lions offense, which is way better than what Pittsburgh saw last week.

New England Patriots +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I fully expect the Patriots to bounce-back after last week's crushing comeback loss to the Bills.  Although the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt (as they are only 1 game behind the Steelers), this might not be the week they catch up.  The last week against Pittsburgh does loom large, though, if the Ravens can keep pace with Pittsburgh).  So, given the implications, Baltimore may win, but New England keeps it VERY close.

San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers' comeback is a very sweet story, but he really didn't play that great.  Definitely not sure that the Colts' offense can keep up with San Francisco, which has scored under 26 only once since November 2.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Well, since New Orleans has screwed me over 2 weeks ago picking against them, let's see if the former trend continues (screwing me over) or the latter (winning two in a row) becomes a streak.

Last Week Record: 5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 104-118-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($975)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,895) 

Picks of the Week

Well, week 17 was a total crapshoot.  Now we are on to the playoffs, with the wildcard round starting today.  That means the below rules apply to the over/under bet as well as to the pick via the point spread.  I will also be picking each game via the money line, and the money line rules will apply.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense.  I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league.  So, they are overrated.  I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.

Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above.  In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well.  Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright.  Why?  Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win.  That makes me leery.  But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.

Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense.  The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.

New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line.  Just hate it.  But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright.  The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas.  Who does Minnesota have to cover him?  Don't worry, I'll wait.

Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one.  Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco.  Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.

Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs

Big Bet I

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2

The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.

Big Bet II

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots

Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($900)

Picks of the Week

Gotta love putting in my weekly picks entry this morning, and there is NFL football on!  Great start to a Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -17 v. New York Giants
Home team, short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers (from London)
Both teams are surprises this year.  Tampa - because they are playing tough with the breakout player of the year in Chris Godwin and the second best run defense in the country; Carolina - because of undefeated as a starter Kyle Allen.  I expect a close game so I am going to take the points.

Baltimore Ravens -11 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is the year for going against established betting rules, as a double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game usually a big No-No.  But, Cincinnati is 31st in rush defense and will try to stop the Ravens, that are second in rushing offense at 192.2 yards per game.  This does not bode will for the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Seattle Seahawks
Just as I espoused about not staying with traditional betting rules, here I go abiding by one in the face of a line that screams to take the Seahawks.  But, I will stay with the "west coast team travelling east to play the early game rarely cover" rule as I think Cleveland is due for a breakout game after being manhandled by the San Francisco 49ers last week.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points.  If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
I have gone back-and-forth on this game all day, and I have no idea which team to pick.  Take the points.

Washington Racists -4 at Miami Dolphins
Worst game of the year.  I cannot believe that I am taking Washington will giving points.  But, I feel strongly that the Dolphins could go 0-16 against the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
This game should be really exciting as both teams do some things on offense extremely well (Philadelphia 7th in scoring; Minnesota 3rd in rushing).  I will take the points in a game that could go either way.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Only because David Johnson isn't playing, but I could easily see losing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Los Angeles Rams
No Todd Gurley for the Rams, and the 48ers defensive line showed their mettle last week against the Browns.  I expect that to continue.  Strength against strength when the Rams have the ball as LA is second in passing offense and the 49ers are second in passing defense.

Tennessee Titans +2 at Denver Broncos
Denver just is not very good, despite their victory last week against the Chargers.  I am taking Tennessee because of their defense (3rd in 3rd down percentage; 6th in scoring defense; 9th in total defense; and 10th in passing defense).

Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Jets
The return of Sam Darnold, but i have no expectations for New York to perform well, as I have had mononucleosis, and there is no way he performed any football activities at any level until this week.  Dallas has fallen back to earth a bit, and the Jets are just what they need to reassert some type of dominance in a football game.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Delvin Hodges.  Enough said.  But, to counter his first NFL start, Philip Rivers will be making his 214th straight start.  At least Pittsburgh has Paxton Lynch to back up Hodges.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills. Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points.  If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.
I like a lot of my picks, but didn't love one.  I hate taking a road team as a big bet, but at least I am getting points.

Last Week's Record:  8-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  36-42
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($135)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,215)

NFL Picks of the Week

Sadly, the Bears Super Bowl hopes went "doink, doink", but at least I had Philly plus the points.  Average week, but hopefully this gets easier, at least the way the weather is in half the games should help, but you never know.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
So, Kansas City is incredibly high scoring - this we all know.  But, Indianapolis was 5th in scoring this year as well and 10th in scoring defense.  Plus, it is snowing right now in Kansas City, as I just saw a picture from my friend Alison who is currently tailgating at the game (she is from Kansas City).  This game is going to require a stop, and the Colts defense will make enough to keep this close - especially since Kansas City's defense doesn't stop anybody (31st in the league at 405.5 yards per game).

Indianapolis Colts +180 (Bet $100 to win $180) at Kansas City Chiefs
If I think this is going to be close, I have a lot of faith in Adam Vinatieri in kicking field goals in inclement weather, even important ones.  Plus, I like the +180 odds better than the -220 to select the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54
Three unders hit last week, much to my dismay, but bad weather doesn't always mean low scoring.  Sometimes it means defensive backs slipping on coverage, or linebackers losing their footing when trying to wrap up a big back.  It can also mean fumbles in your own territory.  I look for the over to come in this game.

Dallas Cowboys +7 at the Los Angeles Rams
I don't think I am on the Dallas Cowboys are for real and legitimate Super Bowl contenders bandwagon, but I am on the Rams have not looked great for about a month now bandwagon, and the way the Cowboys defense has been playing, the Rams should not run away with this, even if they win.

Dallas Cowboys +270 at Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $270)
Honestly, I don't know if the Cowboys are actually going to win this game, all I know is that Amari Cooper has changed this offense dramatically - for the better - and Ezekial Elliott has been a monster with the safeties not able to play in the box to cover Cooper over the top.  Plus, the Rams are at -330, and I do not like that risk at all.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48 1/2
Even with Dallas's defense playing extraordinarily well of late, would it shock you if this ended up at least 28-24?  It wouldn't for me.  I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I like the Chargers so much more than the Patriots this year, but the Chargers history in New England, and Phillip Rivers's history against Tom Brady, might just be too much to overcome in the bad weather in Foxboro.

New England Patriots -190 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Bill Belicheck with a bye week to prepare against a warm weather west coast team traveling east to play in the early time slot.  This should be -250.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I just don't see a shootout hear.  Maybe something like 24-17,

New Orleans Saints -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans was 13-3 this year for good reason, and this after starting the season with a loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  New Orleans was the third highest scoring team in the league and second in total defense, meaning Nick Foles is going to have to do this by himself.  Besides Drew Brees, who will be playing against Philly's 30th ranked pass defense, the Saints have the most dangerous running back in the game in Alvin Kamara - because of his versatility.  Here is where the title defense ends.

New Orleans Saints -380 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I thought about hedging my bet here as the Eagles are getting +320, but New Orleans likely beats Philly last year if not for that ridiculous Stefon Diggs last second catch-and-run in the playoffs to knock the Saints out.  This playoff run is a long-time coming for the Saints.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2
Did I mention Philadelphia's 30th ranked pass defense?

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +7 at Los Angeles Rams
I just feel the league, starting with the Bears loss, and continuing through the Philly loss the following week, might have found a way to slow down the Rams.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-126-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($985)

Picks of the Week

Two great wee\ks in a row (17-10), and although Thursday was an awful start to the week, I am confident that I can keep this winning streak going.  I have had a little more time to think about the picks today, so I sure hope that I do not overthink things, buChot what are the odds of that?

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I hate taking the road teams on the short week, but that extra half-point sold me at a time when both teams were playing extremely well.

Chicago Bears -7 v. Detroit Lions
This is not a homer pick, I swear.  The Lions offense looked anemic even before trading Golden Tate, and they looked downright pitiful last week.  The Bears have given up 17 or less in 4 of 5 home games, and the weather is going to be cold today, which isn't good for a dome team.

New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
The Falcons offense is really clicking, especially with the emergence of Calvin Ridley as a deadly threat.  Cleveland, although playing better than the past 2 years, is still a train wreck.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is scoring in excess of 35 the past 5 games, but even Blake Bortles has feasted on the Colts defense in the past 2 years. With Fournette returning, the Colts will not win by much, if at all.

Kansas City Chiefs -16 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
This line is absolutely ridiculous, but Arizona is Arizona and they are travelling west, so why not.

Buffalo Bills +7 at New York Jets
Two new quarterbacks in Matt Barkley, yes, that Matt Barkley, and Josh McCown, yest that Josh McCown. The Bills defense should keep this game close and interesting, as they are 3rd in total defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Washington Racists
Fitzmagic!!!

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel keeps the game with his mentor close.

Los Angeles Chargers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Road favorite and double digit division favorites never cover, much less if they are both in one game.  But, the Raiders are a train wreck the likes that nobody except for Cleveland Browns fans have ever seen.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Just too many points, given that the Packers are mediocre in points per game and average to below average in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense.

Seattle Seahawks +9 at Los Angeles Rams
The one thing that the Seahawks are is resilient, and although they may not win this game, they will likely play this game similar to the game against the Chargers last week, within 9.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This line just seems way too big for a division game in which the teams are only separated in the standings by 1 game.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. New York Giants
Two teams with a combined record of 3-14 means a Monday Night Football game I will likely miss.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.
No A.J. Green, and the Saints do it for Dez.

Last Week's Record:  8-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  70-58-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $400
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $395

Divisional Playoffs/Picks of the Week

A really good opening week to the playoffs.  Just a couple of plays from an extraordinary week.  Hopefully that continues.  Once again, for the playoffs and since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Eagles are the home team and yes they are the number 1 seed.  Yes, the Falcons are the number 6 seed.  The Falcons are the reigning NFC champions, they did win 10 games this year and they are starting their starting quarterback.  This game features the seventh ranked defense (Eagles) and 8th ranked defense (Falcons) in the NFL  I will take Matt Ryan and the experience of the Falcons over the versatility of the Eagles offense.  24-21.

Atlanta Falcons -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
Since I feel Atlanta will cover the spread, I have to take them with the money line, especially since Philly is only +$130, so not much extra incentive to take the Eagles here.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 40
Two really good defenses, but 40 really isn't a lot of points.  Like I said before, 24-12, Atlanta.

Tennessee Titans +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
Let's get this straight from the beginning:  there is no way Tennessee wins this matchup.  I just think that with the tough running of Derrick Henry, and Mariota making a few plays, the Patriots might only win by 10.

New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
This is really a suckers bet.  Not because I don't think New England will win, but because there is little or no value in making this bet, but since I am picking each games money line, I am definitely taking the Patriots.  No doubt they win.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I am not sure Tennessee scores enough to get to the 48.  New England 28-18, maybe?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville destroyed Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year.  I do not expect that to happen again, but I also expect that the Jaguars defense can keep this game closer than the line.

Pittsburgh Steelers -$320 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $320 to win $100)
Not a value bet, but I feel good about Pittsburgh's chances to win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41
Blake Bortles looks like he is playing like Blake Bortles.  This could end up being a 20-14 game.

New Orleans Saints +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has had a great season, finishing 11th in total offense and 1st in total defense, but New Orleans is second in total offense, and they will put enough points on the board to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints +$200 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $200)
Yes, I think that New Orleans will win outright over the Vikings, so I will take the money line bet.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings OVER 46
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 7-5
Playoff Record - 7-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  131-129-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $200
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $200
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1010)

NFL Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 5 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  I watched a lot this week, so I have a pretty good sample size.

Game of the Week

New Orleans Saints 37 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 - Yes the teams have combined for only 5 wins (including this game), but boy was it exciting.  The Saints scored 11 points in the final quarter to earn overtime, and then scored a touchdown in overtime.  Also exciting because at least 4.3 million people selected the Saints in their survivor pools.

Best Team Performance

San Diego Chargers - Yes it was the Jets, but the Chargers' defense pitched the only shutout of the weekend and San Diego did score 31 on the Jets normally stout defense.  The Chargers are a Super Bowl contending team this year.

Least Impressive Team Performance

New York Jets - This is too easy given the above, but the performances of both Geno Smith and Michael Vick seal this award for the work.  I feel like even typing this is a waste of time.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Peyton Manning, QB - Denver Broncos. He was 31-47 for 479 yards and 4 Touchdowns as the Broncos more than doubled-up the Cardinals.  Even more importantly, his two touchdown strikes to Demaryius Thomas finally may have woken  Thomas out of his slumber.  Once again DeMarco Murray with an honorable mention.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Marcell Dareus, DT - Buffalo Bills. Dareus had a monster game with 5 tackles, 3 sacks and a forced fumble.  It will be hard to find a defensive tackle that has such an impactful performance the rest of the year.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Stephen Gostkowski, K - New England Patriots.  He kicked 5 filed goals in 5 attempts, plust he made 4 extra points.  If you include kickoffs, that means Gostkowski was on the field for 19 plays!

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Sunderland.  Scored early and late to defeat Stoke 3-1 and move out of relegation range - for the moment at least

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Petr Cech - Chelsea.  One of the top 5 or 6 goalies in the world, who lost his first team spot to one of the top 3 or 4 goalies in the world, is rushed into emergency duty after Thibault Courtouis suffers an apparent concussion due to the reckless play of Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez in the 24th minute.  All Cech did was shake of the rust and keep the clan sheet against the Gunners.

Goat of the Week

Matt Forte, RB - Chicago Bears.  His horrible fumble coast the Bears an easily winnable game at home against the Carolina Panthers, one in which the Bears committed turnovers on each of their last three possessions to give Carolina the win, and move the Bears to 0-3 at home this season.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

David Nugent, Leicester City - After coming into the game against Burnley in the 63rd minute, Burnley held a 2-1 lead late into the game when Nugent commits a fouls just outside the box that earns him a yellow card and gives a free kick to Burnley, which Ross Wallace promptly converts in the 6th minute of extra time to steal a point.  Nugent's foul definitely cost Leicester 2 points for the win.

Hit of the Week

Geno Smith, QB - New York Jets - The blow to his ego must have obliterated him.

Breakthrough Performance

Austin Davis, QB - St. Louis Rams - Finished with 375 yards and 3 Touchdowns (with 2 fumbles), in a 34-28 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.  That being said, we cannot look at Davis as a wide-eyed inexperienced backup anymore.  Davis can play.  He might make some mistakes, but he can play.

Finally

Buffalo Bills - For finally giving Kyle Orton a chance.  Say what you will about Orton, but he has been around the league and will not be frazzled when thrust into a game situation.  Orton finished 30-43 for 302 yards and 1 touchdown, and more importantly, the Bills won, defeating Detroit 17-14.

Impact Injury

Reggie Bush, RB - Detroit Lions.  Buffalo really took control of the game once Bush went out, and his versatility as a runner and as a receiver out of the backfield will be missed if he is out significant time.

Team Rising

Green Bay Packers - Two division wins in a row, and more importantly, two wins in which the Packer offense has looked unstoppable.

Team Falling

Chicago Bears - The Bears are 0-3 at home, and have lost two games that easily should have been wins except for late turnovers.  If you cannot close out games you are winning, you are not going to win a lot of games.

Best Teams

1. Seattle Seahawks
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Denver Broncos
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. Indianapolis Colts

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be bottomed ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts and not just records)

32. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Oakland Raiders
30. New York Jets
29. Tennessee Titans
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Middle Teams

15.  Detroit Lions
16.  Houston Texans
17.  Kansas City Chiefs
18.  Atlanta Falcons

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4.  Chicago Bears v. Atlanta Falcons - Not because the teams are so great, but because this game is incredibly important for both 2-3 teams to win.  Chicago and Atlanta were both pre-season playoff contenders, and the loser of this games likely drops out of the hunt.  Interesting stat is that the Bears are undefeated on the raod so far this year while the Falcons are undefeated at home.  Obviously one of those is going to end this week.

3. Carolina Panthers v. Cincinnati Bengals - Two very good teams looking to earn a statement win; Carolina to keep pace in the NFC and Cincinnati to show last week's shellacking at the hands of the Patriots was an anomaly.

2.  New York Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles - Two high-octane offenses in a battle of division contenders?  Yes, please!

1. Dallas Cowboys v. Seattle Seahawks - Winner has early control of the tough NFC.

Trivia

Peyton Manning passed the 500 touchdown barrier this week, becoming the second quarterback in history to do so (after Brett Favre).  Against what team has Manning thrown the most touchdowns, and who has caught the most of Manning's touchdown passes?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

I am behind by about one review, as I went to a couple of bars (1 for college and 1 for NFL a couple of weeks ago), so this is my catch up review from the one Monday Night Football game I went out to watch earlier this year.

Sports Page Bar and Grill, 535 25th Street, West Palm Beach, FL

This was last year's local Bears viewing bar, but since then new owners have taken over so it felt like a completely new bar - even though not one thing cosmetically or substantively has really changed from the previous owners.

Ambiance, the bar itself - literally the bar - is really amazing as the back trough behind the bar is frozen daily, so you can sit your drink in the ice to provide a really cold coaster.  It is old, with a great feel to it.

The sports feel is good, but not as great as it should be for having as many televisions as it does.  There are a lot of obstructed views of televisions, with taps, or bottles or other items in front of some of the televisions.  Even though it is not optimal, it is still pretty good, and each table has its own television to view if you are not in the bar area.

Food is all over the place; from traditional bar food to italian to seafood to you name it.  I would like to see the menu streamlined so that it might be easier for the kitchen to concentrate on a food type, but generally the food tastes pretty good.  We had conch fritters and the buffalo chicken sandwich. on this occasion, but have had nachos and wings and other items in the past.  The presentation leaves a lot to be desired - especially on the buffalo chicken sandwich - but it tastes pretty good.  Not great, but good.

The beer selection is small, consisting primarily of your domestics with a handful of popular imports (Heinekin, Amstel, Stella, etc.) and a couple of local crafts - primarily Due South's Caramel Cream Ale.  They do have bucket specials during football games - which is nice.

Service was slow, but more deliberate than dawdling.  On this occasion the entire bar was slow (maybe 8 people total), so that may have had an effect on the listless service.  Nice service, not particularly versed in the menu or the drinks, but nice.


Service - AFC North
Drinks - NFC East
Food (Presentation) - AFC East
Food (Taste) - AFC West
Cleanliness - NFC North
Sports Accommodations - NFC North
Overall - Kansas City Chiefs (third in AFC West)

Rating System Best to Worst:  NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, NFC East, AFC East

Trivia Answer

The last time that the NFL actually had interesting games or teams in London was ... NEVER!

Playoff Picks

Boy was I way off the reservation last week. 11-0 is way gone, both straight-up and against the spread. I need a big comeback week to try to get back to respectability, after a darn good season of picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints

The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots

I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.

Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens

Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.

New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.


Playoff Record To Date

Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3