Picks of the Week - Week 1

WE ARE BACK BABY!!!  The NFL, and NFL gambling!!!  The time when it is absolutely OK to igore everything else going on in your life from Thursday through Monday!!!  Every NFL Fanbase is overly excited about their chances of winning a Super Bowl (except the Dolphins fans in one of my group chats who are still discussing why the OVER on 4 1/2 wins could never happen this year), and every gambler is overly excited about their chances of winning a mint!  Your boy took a bath last year - and this year will be the time to make it up.  Anyway, we love this time of year, and you can expect this weekly column to be posted throughout the season.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. New England Patriots

Yes A.J. Brown is a huge upgrade to the Patriots offense, but they also experienced losses on defense.  I expect a regression.  Too bad this ended in a push.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, Australia

Whoops!

Chicago Bears -3 at Carolina Panthers

Ben Johnson has stated that he not only wants his Bears to win, but he wants them to set all-time NFL offensive records.  This first game is an opportunity to start on the right foot toward that goal.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Indianapolis Colts

No real understanding of this line, other than I think the Ravens have A LOT to prove this year after last season's collapse.  We will see if that is true today, as the Colts also collapsed at the end of last season.  Is Daniel Jones really that important?

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Atlanta Falcons

I truly don't believe that this iteration of the Steelers is going to be good.  But, they are not starting Cooper Rush!

Jacksonville Jaguars -8 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

A big number, but I am not sure what the Browns organization saw in DeShaun Watson this preseason.  Sanders would at least give them a puncher's chance.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don't fully trust Tampa.  It is entirely possible that Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen being inserted as DTs completely revamp this defense!

Tennessee Titans -1 1/2 v. New York Jets

Going to be a loooooooong season for both of these teams.  Carnell Tate may just be exactly what Cam Ward needs to take another step!

New Orleans Saints +6 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit can - and will score.  However, I think Tyler Shough is going to be a whole lot better than people expect, and his connection with Chris Olave down the stretch last year gives the Saints fans a lot of hope.

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 at Houston Texans

The Texans defense still looks like the Texans defense - which is dangerous to the rest of the NFL.  The Bills have added steady and underrated star D.J. Moore, which should open things up for Josh Allen, open up holes for James Cook AND open up the deep ball for Khalil Shakir.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Will the Cardinals just start Carson Beck already.  They need to see if they should target a QB in next year's draft or not.  Because when they lose and if they find out Beck is viable as an NFL starter - their high pick will get them a haul in a trade package!

Green Bay Packers +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Only because divisional rivalries in opening week are crazy to predict - so I want the points.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Kirk Cousins actually brings a steady hand to the Raiders offense, and might help Ashton Jeanty the jolt he needs toward stardom.  The Dolphins might be competitive, but likely will not win a lot this year.

Washington Commanders +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I don't think Washington wins this, but first-week intra-divisional games can be tricky, and this spread is bigger than the points I took with Green Bay.  Out of respect for Jayden Daniels I will just say the spread is 6.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at New York Giants

Taking a road intra-divisional favorite in a week in which I have taken all of the underdogs in the intra-divisional games.  Why?  The Cowboys have a tremendous offense, but after losing Micah Parsons to a trade last season, they have added Malachi Lawrence and Caleb Downs to the defense via the draft, and Dee Winters, Rashan Gary via free agency and trade respectively with Von Miller being added as a situational pass rusher.  They have gone all-in on this iteration of Dak Prescott's offense.  If they don't win this game, the whole season becomes a huge question mark.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Jaylen Waddle is a big addition for the Broncos, but I don't expect he will have the impact of Kenneth Walker on the Chiefs offense, who have had decent running backs during Patrick Mahomes' tenure - but nothing like what Walker brings to the table.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don't fully trust Tampa.  It is entirely possible that Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen being inserted as DTs completely revamp this defense!

I really think that the push up the middle from Lawrence and Allen will make rushing the ball really difficult for Tampa Bay, while also pressuring Baker Mayfield and keeping him from stepping into the pocket.  Plus, Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Brown are ready to explode!

Last Season's Tallies, with the "Last Week Record" being the Super Bowl. 

 

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet:  3-1

Playoff Record: 26-24

Playoff Big Bet:  5-5

Year-to-Date Record: 152-164-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 11-17

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $975

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $521.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,478.20)