Picks of the Week - Week 2

 

Wow - It is so good to have the NFL back, especially after a good start for your boy in Week 1.  Sadly, I am unable to watch a lot of the games today, but happy to be celebrating a wedding with family.  No matter the occasion, still gotta get the picks in.  LET'S GO!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I know it is only the second week, and the players are not as run down and hurt as they will be later in the season, but gotta start early - home team/short week!  It paid off.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

That Bears offense sure looked amazing in putting up 59 against Carolina last week, on 569 total yards.  The vaunted Vikings defense gave up 453 to the Packers.  If Chicago's defense can make a couple of key plays at key times, this game could get out-of-control.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Tennessee Titans

Have the Titans even started their regular season yet?  Sure looked like they were still ironing out kinks - HUGE KINKS - last week.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

One thing we absolutely CANNOT do, is overreact to week 1; and although I did expect some regression from the Patriots this year, I did not expect them to look THAT bad against the Seahawks.  But, Pepster you say, the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl Champs.  My response is - Drew Lock didn't lead that championship.  Not sure Pittsburgh wins this, but pretty sure Aaron Rodgers can keep it close.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I hated to pick an intra-divisional road favorite, but the Falcons could be one of the four worst teams in the NFL (with the Browns, Titans, and Dolphins.)  Who will win the "March for Arch?"  Won't be decided this week, but Carolina should pick up a key divisional win.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets picked up a win last week, but I am not going to overreact to a win against the Titans.  Geno Smith is a settling hand, and this team could surprise some people, but I do not expect that to happen this week.

New Orleans Saints +8 at Baltimore Ravens

I actually think New Orleans could win its division this week.  Seriously.  Don't think they win this week, but this game seems like a Shough-Olave backdoor cover touchdown in the final two minutes.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Houston Texans

Buffalo is going to do what it did to Houston (and subsequently to Detroit) to a lot of teams, so I am not yet worried about Houston.  But I do think that Cincinnati might be ready to make some noise.  At the risk of being redundant from last week, the two new DTs in Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen may just give enough oomph to the defense to allow the offense to score enough to win games - or in this case - at least keep in close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I am actually not that sold on Tampa this year, but until this DeShaun Watson debacle ends and Shadeur Sanders gives this team a puncher's chance - the Browns are going to be UGLY!!!  And just as I typed this, I see a report that the "Browns are re-evaluating the QB position ahead of their home opener, but that is next week.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

Jacksonville has a chance to cement its place as Buffalo's biggest contender in the AFC (with Baltimore), A couple of years ago Jacksonville had to have been considering whether Trevor Lawrence was really it for them; hint ... he is.  Plus, Denver is on a short week.

 

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I am willing to overlook the Chargers opening-week loss to Arizona as a product of perhaps them overlooking the Cardinals.  But it is getting close to the time for the Chargers to really think if they can move forward with Justin Herbert or try to use him in the offseason to jump-start a rebuild - especially with this QB class coming into the NFL next year.  Is he an upper-level NFL starter?  Absolutely.  Is he the one to carry the team to the Super Bowl?  Meh ....

Arizona Cardinals +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

I think Seattle is the best team here.  I am not overrating Arizona based on its week 1 win over the Chargers.  But you know I hate road intra-divisional favorites, and I already picked one this week.  Maybe Drew Lock regresses this week to, well, Drew Lock.  Seattle 21-20?

San Francisco 49ers -13 v. Miami Dolphins

The team that looked the best last week hosting the team that looked the best of the bottom-dwellers?  Double-digit spreads always scare me, but I am not hesitating on this one.

Washington Commanders +4 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas's new-look defense has not quite jelled yet, to say the least, and the Commanders played the Eagles close on the road last week.  I expect another close divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 v. Indianapolis Colts

I know that Kansas City is on a short week, but there should be REAL concern in Indianapolis about: (a) this team in general; and (b) that acquiring Kenneth Walker by the Chiefs may have been the BEST offseason move of any team!

New York Giants +7 at Los Angeles Rams

Again, we should not overreact too much to one week's games, but this Giants team might be good.  Not great, but good to very good.  The Rams looked sluggish, and Puka Nacua might be out for Monday night.  Even if he is not out, he might be limited.  I'll take a TD.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Tennessee Titans

Have the Titans even started their regular season yet?  Sure looked like they were still ironing out kinks - HUGE KINKS - last week.

This violates my own personal rules regarding selecting Big Bets:  Try to pick a home team, if you pick an away team, be getting points, or at least giving up less than a FG.  But, this is the Titans, and both the Browns and Dolphins are getting more than the 7 Tennessee is getting in this game.  Gotta go against the really bad teams until proven otherwise.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 9-6-1

Last Week Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 9-6-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-0

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $390

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): $390