Picks of the Week - NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

 

An actual great start to the playoffs, and with a play or two going in the other direction, I could have cut a big chunk into my yearly deficit.  As it is, I am not going to complain as we had some really excellent football during Wildcard Weekend - and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And this week we should have some more phenomenal games.  In the NFC we have 3 western division teams, which have been the class of the conference all year, and the upstart cardiac Chicago Bears, who get to host a game in 20 degree temperatures!  In the AFC, we have one of the best defenses we have ever seen (Houston), one of the best players we have ever seen (Allen), and two teams that are way more than the sum of their parts (Denver and New England).  Let's get to the games!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Everything about this game screams "Broncos!"  They are coming off a bye and Buffalo is on a short week having played a tough game against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Broncos are the number 1 seed in the AFC.  And to top it all off, the money has overwhelming come in on Denver so far as this spread started with Buffalo -1 1/2.  But, It is hard to look at these games and see that Denver is the better team.  Denver's strength is its defense, where it finished 4th overall.  But Buffalo's defense finished 7th overall, giving up only 3 yards more per game.  And, Buffalo has the much - MUCH - better offense (3rd overall and 4th in scoring versus Denver's 12th overall and 14th in scoring).  And who do you trust more to make plays - Josh Allen or Bo Nix?

Buffalo Bills EVEN Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

This line also opened with Buffalo being -112, so the money is definitely coming in on the Broncos.  But, I don't follow early money; I follow late money, and I suspect the late money will start coming in on the Bills.  For all of the reasons stated above, and because Buffalo has the number 1 ranked rushing offense in the NFL, I think the Bills will not only cover, but win outright.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos UNDER 46 1/2

I mentioned above that the Bills have the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL, and relying on a rushing game takes time off the clock - and lessens possessions.  Add to that fact that Denver has the second-best defense against the run in the NFL and this game is going to be a slog.

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

San Francisco 49ers +270 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $270) at Seattle Seahawks

It is one thing to take the points in this game, but the Moneyline?  This is purely a numbers pick.  Seattle is at -340 right now, meaning I would have to be $340 to win $100, so the ML spread is about $610, so I am taking this bet knowing Seattle is likely to win, but taking a low-risk flyer for some actual money.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45

Did you see the last score of 13-3 just two weeks ago?

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Yes New England will be at home in inclement weather, but it isn't like Houston has a high-flying offense.  They win with tough - and I mean TOUGH - defense (number 1 in the NFL in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense).  New England is no slouch in that department either (8th in Total defense and 4th in scoring defense), but their offense is way more likely to be affected by the weather than Houston's. Add that to the fact that Houston has probably forgotten how to lose (as they haven't lost since an 18-15 defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 on November 2, and I will gladly take points here.

Houston Texans +150 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $150) at New England Patriots

Yes, the underdogs are flying here this weekend, as it seems that we have the weakest group of hosts in recent memory for the divisional round.  Honestly, the smart play if probably a New England victory here, but until Houston loses, I am going to keep taking them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

Chicago Bears +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

So I am taking all 4 underdogs, even though in this game the underdog is the home team.  The Bears, even in defeat, have done nothing but keep final games close.  Add to that the fact that the game will be played in about 21 degree weather with wind, and you can rest assured that both teams will rely on their run games, which has a tendency to keep games close.

Chicago Bears +172 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $172) v. Los Angeles Rams

If I am going to go all the way with underdogs, I might has well go ALL THE WAY with underdogs!

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears OVER 48 1/2

This bet makes no sense, even to me and I am making it, but I cannot select 4 underdogs AND 4 unders.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

This game just has to be close, right?

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

I am all-in on this Houston Defense.  One of the best three or four I have ever seen.  1985/1986 Bears; Early 2000s Ravens, the Tampa Bay Super Bowl winner (not with Brady), and this one.  Scary good.

Last Week Record: 12-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 12-6 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1 

Year-to-Date Record: 138-148-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-13

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $611.80

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $611.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,488.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther

The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2

The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears

But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2

I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.

 

Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles

A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2

A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots

If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2

Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2

Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

NFL REGULAR SEASON REVIEW

 

The NFL regular season is over, and the playoffs will soon (5 days) be upon us.  So before that begins, let us take a look at the regular season as a whole, and what each team needs to address in the offseason. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (14-3) Took control of this division after a week 5 win at Buffalo, and never looked back.  This team could use a Wide Receiver/Tight End playmaker to take it over the top, given Stefon Diggs' volatility and legal problems.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) The Bills went 3-1 in the last quarter, but still just don't look sharp.  A big-play receiver and a strong run-stuffing DT should be the focus in the offseason.

Miami Dolphins (7-10) Quinn Ewers looks OK and could be serviceable - maybe more - as a starter.  The Dolphins need to get rid of Tua's contract and focus on finding strong, stable offensive lineman.

New York Jets (3-14)

Horrible year for the Jets.  They need a foundational quarterback above everything else.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

The Steelers went 3-1 to cement the AFC North title on the last day.  Despite making the playoffs, they need to focus on a lot; wide receiver to run with D.K. Metcalf, offensive lineman to improve the running game, and an improved secondary.

Baltimore Ravens (8-9)

Injuries to Lamar Jackson hurt this season.  That and a horrible secondary led to their demise.  They should focus on a veteran corner, and a young, talented corner in the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)

Another team just crippled by injuries.  They need to focus on a big defensive tackle and linebackers.

Cleveland Browns (5-12)

Cleveland had a very good 2024 draft:  Mason Graham DT, Carson Schewsinger (LB), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Harold Fannin, Jr. (TE), and Shadeur Sanders (QB) all hit.  They primarily need to focus on obtaining a playmaker for Sanders at WR, and protection as well in the OL.

 

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

What a year.  Might focus on a big-play corner or pass rusher.

Houston Texans (12-5)

They have won 9 in a row!!!  Certainly clicking at the right time.  Team should focus on a dynamic running back, and nobody would be mad at offensive linemen.

Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

Lost seven straight to end the season without Daniel Jones.  Offseason focus should be on bolstering the secondary and another pass rusher to complement Laiatu Latu.

Tennessee Titans (3-14)

The focus should be on playmakers and protection for Cam Ward, who looks legitimate despite being on a last-place team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (14-3)

Finished the year out 3-1 to secure home-field advantage in the AFC.  They need to focus on a dynamic running back, and a playmaker at receiver.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers remain dangerous as they enter the playoffs.  They are solid in every phase, so they just need to focus on adding talent at any position that is available to them.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

The Chiefs finished 0-4 without Patrick Mahomes due to injury.  They need to focus on an every-down running back, a possession receiver with hands to compliment Rashee Rice, and replacement for Travis Kelce!(?)

Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

Earning the number 1 pick in the draft gifts them Fernando Mendoza.  They need to focus on a coaching staff that can unlock his best qualities and develop him into a star, and protect him with lineman.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

Not the same team as last year, but they could still make a run.  The team needs to focus on the passing game.  They have the players, so maybe a new passing-game coordinator, or offensive coordinator?

Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)

This team has more talent than their record.  After waiving Trevon Diggs, they really need to focus on the secondary, at corner and safety.  A pass rusher wouldn't hurt either.

Washington Commanders (5-12)

A healthy Jayden Daniels would mean the world to this team.  Offseason focus should be on a complimentary playmaker to Terry McLaurin, and improvement to the secondary.

New York Giants (4-13)

The first overall pick would have been nice, but that didn't happen.  They need a big-time playmaking wide receiver, some receiver depth, and a run-stuffing defensive tackle and linebacker on the defensive side of the ball.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (11-6)

This season has exceeded expectations for the Bears, and despite obvious holes in the team, they do not quit.  Their focus in the offseason should be on a top pass rusher to compliment Montez Sweat, and linebacker talent (either inside or for coverage - whichever help is available).

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)

Lost a few down the stretch -  including to the Bears - to gift the Bears the division. Still really talented, the team should focus on a true number 1 receiver (I feel they have a bunch of good, not great receivers), and perhaps some linebacking help.

Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

An up-and-down year for the Vikings.  They need to focus on whether J.J. McCarthy is really it.  If so, figure out what works for him because they have the playmakers.  Perhaps some offensive lineman and interior defenders to round-out the roster.

Detroit Lions (9-8)

Disappointing season for the Lions.  They need to focus on acquiring a secondary pass rusher, and maybe some secondary help.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers (8-9)

Snuck into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.  They need a lot of help.  With some talent here, they should focus on loading up on both lines.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

Missed the playoffs despite defeating Carolina in the last week of the season.  They need to focus on secondary help as well as some young blood on offense.  A pass rusher would help too.

Atlanta Falcons (8-9)

The dreaded loser in the three-team tiebreaker.  Running game is sound, passing game decent when Michael Penix and Drake London are healthy.  Some strong lineman (offensive and defensive) should be the focus this offseason.

New Orleans Saints (6-11)

The Saints went 3-1 in the last quarter.  They need to focus on a young Alvin Kamara replacement to grow with Tyler Shough, and lineman to pave the way for that running back (and protect Shough).

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The best team in the league.  Very solid in all phases.  They should maybe focus on a block/catch TE and a pass rusher.

Los Angeles Rams (11-3)

Another really solid team, finishing off a solid year.  Maybe a shut-down corner or a pass rusher.

San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Easily the best division in football.  San Francisco should focus on secondary help and linebacker help/depth.  Fred Warner is not going to last forever.

Arizona Cardinals (3-14)

Winless in the last quarter.  They need literally everything.  They should focus on deciding whether Kyler Murray is their long-term QB first, and then just grab as much talent as possible anywhere on the field.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the three-quarter point)

1.  Seattle Seahawks 14-3 (4)

2.  San Francisco 49ers 14-3 (7)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 14-3 (3)

4.  New England Patriots 14-3 (1)

5.  Denver Broncos 14-3 (2)

6.  Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 (10)

7.  Houston Texans 12-5 (12)

8.  Buffalo Bills 12-5 (9)

9.  Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 (6)

10.  Chicago Bears 11-6 (8)

11.  Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 (13)

12.  Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (16)

13.  Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 (5)

14.  Detroit Lions 9-8 (11)

15.  Minnesota Vikings 9-8 (22)

16.  Baltimore Ravens 8-9 (21)

17. Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (24)

18.  Carolina Panthers 8-9 (17)

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 (15)

20.  Indianapolis Colts 8-9 (14)

21.  Dallas Cowboys 7-9-1 (18)

22.  Miami Dolphins 7-10 (20)

23.  New Orleans Saints 6-11 (29)

24.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 (19)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 (23)

26.  Cleveland Browns 5-12 (25)

27.  Washington Commanders 5-12 (26)

28.  New York Giants 4-13 (31)

29.  Tennessee Titans 3-14 (30)

30.  Arizona Cardinals 3-14 (28)

31.  Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 (32)

32.  New York Jets 3-14 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Minnesota Vikings +7, Atlanta Falcons +7, New Orleans Saints +6, Green Bay Packers -8, Indianapolis Colts -6, Baltimore Ravens -5, Kansas City Chiefs -5

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Drake Maye is right there

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns - Not even close

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers Tyler Shough closing FAST!

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns - Pearce and Emmanwori next

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars - And this isn't even close, but Vrabel will win

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts - Who knew he was this good or important?

Comeback Player of the Year - Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers - Back to Form

And yes, I know the NFL does the MVP, then Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.  I don't care.

Picks of the Week - Week 3

I am travelling this week, so no analysis, just picks.

Buffalo Bills -11 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Indianapolis Colts -4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

New England Patriots +2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

Washington Commanders -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Atlanta Falcons - 5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

New Orleans Saints +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I wanted to pick a home team, and this seemed like the best bet.  Lots of games with teams on a short week because of the multiple Monday night games last week, so those are out (Tampa was looking especially good as a big bet pick otherwise.)  Of all the teams with injured quarterbacks, San Francisco looked the most settled with Mac Jones in.

Last Week Record:  9-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  16-16

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-1

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($175) 

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVIII

It has been an excrutiating two weeks, listening to incels complain about Taylor Swift, listening to asinine interviewers in Vegas, and watching crazy video clips of things like Tua jumping on stage and playing guitar with Darius Rucker during Wagon Wheel! Seriously!!!  All I want is to get to what will likely be the most watched Super Bowl ever - and of course make some money.  Now, the two-week layoff was in no way too long for me to ruminate on the fact that I had a losing Championship Sunday, but today is another day - complete with prop bets!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past.  The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!! 

San Francisco 49ers -120 over Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $120 to win $100)

This is simple math; if I think that San Francisco will win as a favorite, and when the money line is this close (Kansas City's best bet is +110), then I have to take San Francisco with the money line.  If this doesn't work out - then I have to hope the prop bets come in!

Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 47 1/2

The one thing we know about these teams is that they can score against anybody.  San Francisco was third in the NFL this year, and despite being 15th, Kansas City is, well, Kansas City.  Yes both of their defenses are stingy (SF 3rd in points allowed; KC 2nd), but do you honestly believe that 1 touchdown a quarter for each team isn't possible, especially when neither the players nor the coaches will be especially nervous?  Plus, it is way more interesting in betting the over than the under.

Now on to the prop bets!

Reba McIntyre National Anthem OVER 89.5 seconds (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)

So, I almost always take the under under for the anthem, but the last two years three years that number has been at 2:00 or over.  For Reba, the number is under 1 1/2 minutes - which I have to take.

San Francisco 49ers OVER 6 1/2 players to catch a pass (Even Money)

So San Francisco likes to spread the ball around.  It feels like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and Kyle Jusczcyzk will all catch a pass, so this relies upon Elijah Mitchell - or somebody else - to catch one also.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)

Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here.  Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid.  Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.

Dre Greenlaw UNDER 8 1/2 tackles (-135 - Bet $135 to win $100)

Greenlaw only hit over 8 tackeles in 5 games this  year, but Kansas City will likely pass more than the teams San Francisco played this year.  So this seems like a good bet to me, especially with Fred Warner playing next to him.

George Karlaftis OVER .25 sacks (+110 - Bet $100 to win $110)

His motor never stops, and this prop bet gives us the opportunity to win with only 1/2 a sack.  Plus, Purdy seems more likely to be sacked than Mahomes (although Purdy is way more mobile than for which he is given credit.)

Longest Successful Field Goal - OVER 46 1/2 yards (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)

Teams do not score a lot of points without hitting some lengthy field goals.  Harrison Butker would be my best bet to do this, but I wouldn't put it past either team.  With great defenses playing, you have to score points whenever you have the opportunity.

Nick Bosa OVER 1 1/2 solo tackles (-160 - Bet $160 to win $100)

Another player whose motor never stops, and he is 50% more motivated than George Karlaftis is.  (IYKYK).

Nick Bosa Over .25 sacks (-115 - Bet $115 to win $100)

Nick Bosa will get a sack.

Nick Bosa OVER .75 sacks (Even Money)

Nick Bosa will get a sack.  This concludes the Nick Bosa Section of our betting).

Patrick Mahomes -16 1/2 yards v. Brock Purdy

Purdy relies more on the running game than Mahomes will, I think, so I expect Mahomes will throw for a significant amount more yards than Purdy does.

San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2 Pass completions

I expect both players to throw a lot, and be very accurate.

Deebo Samuel + 3 1/2 yards on his first carry

The Forty-Niners like to utilize Deebo in the rush game, and I think his first carry will net at least 4 yards.

Harvard alumnus wins the Super Bowl OVER 1/2

Not a real prop bet, but just a way for me to mention that each team has a Harvard alumnus on their squad - Truman Jones on Kansas City and Kyle Juszczyk on San Francisco.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past.  The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!! 

Honestly, other than Mahomes, San Francisco has the majority of the true offensive weapons in today's game:  McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle, versus Kelce, with Pacheco and Rice getting there.  I'll take the weapons.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)

Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here.  Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid.  Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.

I see Mitchell getting 4 to 5 carries this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  1-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoffs' Record:  16-8

Playoffs' Big Bet:  3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  160-122-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($395)

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,155

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,250

Picks of the Weeks - Conference Championship Weekend!!!

 

The fantastic Wildcard Wekeend continued with a 6-2 week in the Divisional Round, including winning both big bets!!!  Cannot do much better than that!  An amazing playoff run that I hoop continues through Conference Championship Weekend.  Either way, this looks like it will be some great football watching today.  Who to bet on?  Let's see!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

There is a legitimate chance that the Chiefs could win this game outright, so might as well take the points, right?  That, and Patrick Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread in his playoffs career.  I still expect the Ravens to win the game though, based on the fact that Buffalo easily sliced through the Chiefs defense, exposing what was the thrid best defense in the NFL - and Baltimore is a much better offense than Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

A lot of focus will be on the fact that both teams are tough against the run - with Detroit finishing second in the NFL and San Francisco finishing third, but the Lions are much worse against the pass (27th in the NFL) and Deebo Samuel is playing this week to give San Francisco that extra weapon for Detroit to try to stop.  

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 52 1/2

Honestly, I do not feel strongly either way on this.  Some sustained drives might limit possessions, keeping the score low - but just a guess.

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

Both offenses should be in full effect in this game.  I honestly expected the O/U to be around 47 to 48, so I will take the OVER.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoffs' Record:  15-5

Playoffs' Big Bet:  3-0

Year-to-Date Record:  159-119-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $680

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,550

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,645

Picks of the Week

The divisional round was fantastic for us, which is a good thing because I do not know if I can really figure out the conference championship games.  Of course, we will give it a shot and hope for the best.  Seriously, this is about the best final four matchups for which we could have hoped in terms of quality teams and great matchups.  Going to be a great football day!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

A dynamic matchup between the 6th and 3rd highest scoring offenses, and the 1st and 4th best defenses.  Strength versus strength with Piladelphia being the 5th best rushing offense and San Franciso being the best overall defense, and 2nd best against the run.  Jalen Hurts is the difference here, as Brock Purdy - who has done an admirable job - is still just a rookie.  But, given that, I still think this game will be close, so I will take the points.  West coast team traveling east, but this game is not being played in the 1:00 time slot, so I will still take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -155 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $155 to win $100)

As stated above, Jalen Hurts is going to be the difference here, and will not make the key mistake(s) that Purdy will.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45

Two of the better defenses in the NFL, and a rookie quarterback make for an interesting under bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +115 at Kansas City Chiefs

I am going to take a Joe Burrow at 100% with J'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and a hobbled Travis Kelce.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiegs OVER 48

I expect a shootout!!!

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

If I expect Cincinnati to win, then the fact that they are getting points must mean I should make this my big bet.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-131-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

 

Super Wild Card Weekend went pretty much as expected, as 5 of the 6 top seeds won games, and the won that lost - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - were the underdogs in that game.  To be fair, "Cue Letterkenny - TO BE FAIRRRRRRRRRRRR," Jacksonville as the 4 seed was also an underdog and beat the Chargers, so 5 of the top 6 favorites won, while 5 of the top 6 seeds won, but they all weren't the same five.  Anyway - really good playoff week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Once again the Jaguars are playing on Saturday, to basically kick-off the playoff coverage, and although their amazing comeback last week was captivating, I don't expect that type of comeback against Kansas City's offense.  Yes, I said offense, because even if Jacksonville scores against KC's defense, they will not be able to stop the leagues highest-scoring offense.

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 53

I see a 35-14/35-17 type of game today.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 v. New York Giants

This might seem tough because of the close game the teams just played in the last week of the season (22-16), but then I realize that the Giants are playing on a short week, so I will take the home team with full rest because of a bye playing a team travelling on a short week.

Philadelphia Eagles -375 v. New York Giants (Bet $375 to win $100)

Plus, the Eagles have the third best defense (total AND scoring) in the NFL, whereas the Giants 27th ranked rushing defense will try to stop the Eagles fifth-rated rushing attack.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48

This seems like a 35-17 game, or 33-21.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bills

This is the game that I am most looking forward to seeing.  I picked Cincinnati in the Damar Hamlin game because Buffalo has not seemed dominant, and even the Bears stayed even with Bills for 3+ quarters.  Giving 6 to Cincinnati with a depleted secondary seems dangerous as Cincinnati is the 5th best passing attack in the league.  The injuries on Cincinnati's offensive line are concerning, but they overcame that last year to make the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals +210 at Buffalo Bills (Bet $100 to win $210)

Buffalo's line is at -250, so it just makes sense to take the Cincinnati money line here.  Cincinnati may not shock anybody this year, but they still win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills OVER 49

Would it shock anybody if this went 30+ points for both teams?

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco is rested, and they have the number 1 defense in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Plus, they have the 6th highest scoring offense, and is there any doubt they would have been higher had they had Christian McCaffrey all year?  Plus, the Cowboys are playing on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -200 v. Dallas Cowboys

If I think the 49ers are going to cover the spread, I must think they are going to win outright, correct?  San Francisco is my favorite to win the Super Bowl right now.  Not sure who has the brawn to stop them, or the guns to outscore them.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers OVER 46 1/2

Honestly, I think this number is a bit low, so I will definitely take the over.

Big Bet:

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

The biggest monetary risk on the board is also the easiest pick on the board.  Have I mentioned that Andy Reid is 20-3 coming off a bye week.  These teams met in November, with Mahomes going 26-35 for 331 yards and 4 TDs, plus rushing for 39 more yards.  KC wins this.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  145-127-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $609.50

Picks of the Week

A wild week 18, with third-string quarterbacks galore.  Some to see what they can do (Sam Howell), some out of necessity (Skylar Thompson), and some just because (every team out of the playoffs).  Coming close to a .500 record for the week secures a winning regular season, that I hope will roll into the playoffs.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Home team on a short week, but really, probably the best team in the playoffs right now, even with Brock Purdy.  Seattle was a nice story, that ends today.  This game has 31-17 written all over it.

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Listen, I thought the Chargers win this game initially, except losing Mike Williams hurts their offense, a lot.  Sure, several of the receivers stepped up, but the look, feel and speed of the offense is different with Williams out.  Not sure who wins, but this is close enough for the Jaguars to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)

Not sold on this as an outright win for Jacksonville, as the defense will need to step up, but they are 12th in scoring defense, and somebody like a Rayshawn Jenkins always seems to make a play when needed.

Buffalo Bills -13 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This isn't the full Dolphins, given that Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailova is still in the consussion protocol.

Buffalo Bills -900 v. Miami Dolphins (Bet $900 to win $100)

Dolphins have the 24th ranked scoring defense in the NFL going against the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. New York Giants

I feel like both of these teams are fraudulent as Super Bowl contenders, yet they play each other so one has to advance.  They both have one superstar offensive player (Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley), but Minnesota has Dalvin Cook as well, and the Giants are 27th in rushing defense.

Minnesota Vikings -155 v. New York Giants (Bet $155 to win $100)

I am not happy about this, but not getting enough on my money (+135) to pick the Giants.  This could be a double loss if the Giants win.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

This game just isn't the same without Lamar Jackson.

Cincinnati Bengals -450 v. Baltimore Ravens (Bet $450 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 8th overall and 3rd in scoring defense, but 26th against the pass.  Joe Burrow leads the 5th best passing attack in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems really trendy to bet on Tampa Bay and Tom Brady, who is 7-0 against Dallas in his career.  But, I don't like trendy bets.

Dallas Cowboys -140 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If I think the Cowboys will cover the spread, then I have to think they will win outright, right?  Tampa's lack of a rushing game (last in the league) will not punish Dallas' 22nd ranked rus defense.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Three easy bets this week, San Fran, Cincinnati and Buffalo to win.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  137-123-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145

Picks of the Week

 

An easy win on a big bet salvaged an otherwise losing week.  If one is to select each and every game every week, losing weeks will happen; the key is to make sure those losses are limited and the 49ers definitely helped me there.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Chicago Bears +1 v. Washington Commanders

Despite dominating, Chicago could not pull it out at home.

Minnesota Vikins -3 at Miami Dolphins

Not a big fan of having to take road favorites, but 3 is a small number, and this is the Dolphins of Skylar Thompson.  

New England Patriots +3 at Cleveland Browns

This might be some of the best coaching that Bill Belichick has ever done, and his team is only 2-3.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ordinarily this would be an absurd bet.  However, Pittsburgh is reeling, and they are still trying to find their footing under Kenny Pickett.  And even though Tampa Bay's office has struggled at times this year, they are still the 3rd passing offense in the league whereas Pittsburgh passing defense is 30th, giving up over 287 yards per game.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New Orleans Saints

This Saints offense is better than most people would think, ranking 5th in the NFL in total offense, and 10th in rushing and their defense is about the same as the Bengals, but Joe Burrow is returning to the Caesar's Superdome, so I expect him to have a huge game.  Also, the Saints have the 23rd ranked rushing defense so perhaps Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine can get the running game on track.

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's defense is horrible this year, as they are 28th in total defense, and last in passing defense.  The Giants on the other hand are 2nd in rushing offense, and stingy in giving up points, being 9th in scoring defense.  I think Baltimore wins this game, but the Giants should keep it close.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Jets

On the season, the Jets have a better passing game than the Packers (9th to 19th), but most of that is based upon Joe Flacco's work, not Zach Wilson's.  Strangely, the strength of the Packers this year is defense (2nd in passing defense, 4th in 3rd down defense and 5th in total defense).  Plus, Green Bay has bounced back after every loss this year.  Honestly, I wanted to take the points in this game, but changed my mind as I typed.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Both of these teams are remarkably similar:  16/13 in total offense; 15/13 in passing offense; 7/6 in total defense; 14/16 in passing defense; 6/4 in rushing defense.  So, being that close, I will take the points, plus the fact that Indianapolis is last in scoring in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Geno Smith resurgence is an amazing story, but this Seahawks defense is sooooo bad (last overall, and in rushing defense, 31st in scorind defense and 26th in passing defense).

Los Angeles Rams -10 v. Carolina Panthers

So the Rams are playing nowhere near good enough to be a double digit favorite against anyone, except for all of the news that the Panthers are listening to trade offers for absolutely everyone, including Christian McCaffrey.  That cannot be good for morale.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

This should be the most exciting game of the year, on paper, and points should be flying across the board as both teams average over 30 points per game.  But, Buffalo also has a defense (1st in scoring, 2nd overall, 2nd rushing, 5th passing), which will be the difference in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys being undefeated under Cooper Rush is a nice story, but that is exactly what it is.  They are 27th in passing offense, and 24th in points.  The Eagles have a great offense (2nd overall, 5th in scoring, 5th in rushing, 7th in passing) AND a stout defense (4th overall, 6th passing, 7th scoring, 10th rushing).  The Eagles solidify the top spot in the NFC East.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Denver Broncos

This is definitely strength versus strength - The Chargers passing offense (2nd) versus the Broncos passing defense (1st).  Although Denver may be tough to score against, they also have problems scoring themselves, averaging only 15 points per game.  The Chargers by a touchdown.

Byes:  Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

I am going to regret this by going to the well one too many times but this bet - that goes against all of the rules for a bet in general, much less a big bet - but I will give it a shot.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  39-36-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $5

Super Bowl Picks of the Week

It is Super Bowl Sunday, and what does that mean - well, we haven't heard about any players being arrested in South Beach this week, and, both teams have nobody listed on the injury report.  So, everyone is healthy for the biggest game of the year.

Since it is the Super Bowl, both bets (not including the money line) will be big bets.  Then we have the money line, and I will do at least 3 prop bets.  Let's see how that works out.

For those that are new to this site - this is ordinarily how I make my bets.  I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Prop Bets

Demi Lovato National Anthem UNDER 1:59 +170 (Bet $100 to Win $170)

San Francisco 49ers Sacks OVER 2 1/2 +130 (Bet $100 to Win $130)

Tyreek Hill Rushing Attempts OVER 1/2 +175 (Bet $100 to Win $175)

Joe Buck or Troy Aikman say "Patriots" +200 (Bet $100 to Win $200)

Robbie Gould Points OVER 7 1/2 +100 (Bet $100 to Win $100)

Game Bets

San Francisco 49ers + 1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco has been the best, most complete team all season.  Their defensive line should give Patrick Mahomes fits all game, and even though Kansas City will likely score their share of points, San Francisco does not shy away from shootouts - see Saints, New Orleans.

San Francisco 49ers +110 v. Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $100 to win $110)
This bet is all over the board in Vegas, from -115 to +110.  Of course, the spread is all over the place from San Francisco -1 to Kansas City -1 1/2.

San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 53 1/2
Both teams can score!

Big Bet I

Demi Lovato National Anthem UNDER 1:59 +170 (Bet $100 to Win $170)

Lovato went way over 2:00 in 2017 while singing the national anthem for a boxing match, but she has sung the anthem at 3 World Series games since then, and all have been under 2:00.

Big Bet II

Joe Buck or Troy Aikman say "Patriots" +200 (Bet $100 to Win $200)
Of course they will mention the Patriots, right?  Maybe in tha this is the first Super Bowl in 4 years without them, or perhaps when speaking about Kyle Shanahan blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots.  This IS going to happen, right?

Last Week's Record:  4-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-2
Year-to-Date Record:  143-140-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  18-12
Playoff Record:  19-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $0
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,005)

Picks of the Week

Baltimore disappointed us all, but WOW, that Kansas City - Houston game was AMAZING!!!  I certainly could watch that game over and over.  So much going on in that game that it was hard to keep up.  Almost makes up for the cluster that was betting on Baltimore.  Today we only have two games upon which to focus, so it makes each bet that much more important.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are on a serious roll, but the Chiefs' offense is seriously rolling.  Tennessee cannot keep relying on Derrick Henry to the point the ignore the passing game entirely and win this game.  Kansas City rolls.

Kansas City Chiefs -320 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $320 to win $100)
If I think the Chiefs are going to cover, then I definitely think they will win outright.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 52 1/2
The only question after last week is will Kansas City hit this number on its own.

Green Bay Packers +8 at San Francisco 49ers
Does anyone not think that Aaron Rodgers can at least keep this one close, especially now that Aaron Jones has started to hit his stride?

San Francisco 49ers -350 over Green Bay Packers (Bet $350 to win $100)
Just because I think Green Bay can keep it close, does not mean that I think they are going to win.  In fact, San Francisco has basically been the best team in the NFC this entire season.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46 1/2
The under has hit way more than in should in these playoffs, and part of that is the quality of the defenses left.  Green Bay is 9th in scoring defense in the NFL and San Francisco is 8th.  I guess this means that the over will definitely hit, but I am taking the UNDER.

Big Bet I

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 52 1/2
The only question after last week is will Kansas City hit this number on its own.
I am just hoping this game is even remotely as exciting as last week's.

Big Bet II

Green Bay Packers +8 at San Francisco 49ers
Does anyone not think that Aaron Rodgers can at least keep this one close, especially now that Aaron Jones has started to hit his stride?
This game will be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playoffs)

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46 1/2
The under has hit way more than in should in these playoffs, and part of that is the quality of the defenses left.  Green Bay is 9th in scoring defense in the NFL and San Francisco is 8th.  I guess this means that the over will definitely hit, but I am taking the UNDER.
The Unders have been huge this playoffs.

Last Week's Record:  8-4
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-2
Year-to-Date Record:  139-138-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  17-10
Playoff Record:  15-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,005)

Picks of the Week

With the exception of the Minnesota - New Orleans game, last week was very good.  Even with my 3 losses from that one wildcard game (and one BAD one at -$400), I still finished up for the week.  Let's see how that playoff luck continues in the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers -320 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $320 to win $100)
San Francisco is the better team, they should win this game.  Of course, Minnesota got me last week as well, but Rudolph did push-off on the game winning touchdown and the playoff rules stink - both teams should at least get one possession.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44 1/2
These defenses are good, and San Francisco is getting a ton of players back from injury.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee is the type of hard-nosed, ball-control team that could give Baltimore trouble.  For that, there is no way that I will give up 10 points in this round of the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -450 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $450 to win $100)
This is the type of line to make me consider taking Tennessee, but I do feel that the Ravens will win this game, and I am confident in that so I have to take the money line on them to win.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 47
Two ball control teams will limit possessions, thus limiting scoring.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by 2 touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs -450 v. Houston Texans (Bet $450 to win $100)
See my analysis of the Baltimore money line and the Chiefs ATS bet.  Patrick Mahomes will put up POINTS.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 51
A 35-14 Chiefs victory still hits the under here.

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.

Green Bay Packers -200 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $200 to win $100)
Despite the fact that I think this is going to be a close game, at plus $170, there is not enough value for me to take a team with no running game fronted by Travis Homer.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers OVER 46 1/2
I can't pick all unders, and in this one, Green Bay wins 27-24.

Big Bet I

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.
This game is going to be close.

Big Bet II

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by at least 2 touchdowns.

This game is not.  35-14.

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.
Seattle would win this game is Chris Carson was healthy.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-134-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  16-8
Playoff Record:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $85
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($815)