NFL Picks of the Week - Final Tally!!!!

 

So the Super Bowl is over and congratulations to the champions Seattle Seahawks.  More importantly, I had a winning Super Bowl weekend to cut into (a little bit) this travesty of a football season.  Here are the final results from Super Bowl week as well as the season!

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet:  3-1

Playoff Record: 26-24

Playoff Big Bet:  5-5

Year-to-Date Record: 152-164-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 11-17

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $975

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $521.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,478.20)

Picks of the Week - YEARLY RECAP

 

So another season has ended, and what a great year it was.  The playoffs were a high point, as I definitely learned throughout the year, and that knowledge of this season definitely helped.  If only a couple of more sacks in the Super Bowl and this would have been TREMENDOUS, as I lost two sacks-related prop bets.  For the season, Buffalo was great, but not as great as everyone thought.  I shorted them.  Cincinnati was a betting godsend.  I took Washington early, but then gave up on them right around Taylor Heinecke's second start.  Miami was a roller coaster wave that a savvy bettor could ride with tremendous success.  And never sell Patrick Mahomes short, or overlook Andy Reid with a bye week (27-4 in his career).  All of that led to this ...

Last Week's Record:  7-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1

Year-to-Date Record:  162-139-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  13-9-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $405

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL Edition

 

Well - after two long, grueling weeks - especially for those of you that may have accidentally stubled onto the Pro Bowl - we are back for the Super Bowl.  Let's jump right into the picks.  Given that there is only one game - I may make a few prop bets also.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Look, the Eagles ARE the play here.  I knew since the line was set that I was going to select the Eagles.  Then I found out that 73% of the bets are on Philadelphia.  Since it is always best to go AGAINST the majority of the bettors, I settleed on Kansas City.  Plus, I realize that Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown a good meaningful pass in like 2 months.  All of the thoughts are on Mahomes' ankle, which will be shot up if it hurts, when Hurts' shoulder is way more questionable.

Kansas City Chiefs +110 v. Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $110)

In for an ounce in for a pound, am I right?  Also, for all of the notoriety that the Eagles' pass rush has garnered this year - all of it deserved - (most sacks in a season and 4 players with at least 12 sacks), but Kansas City only gave up 26 sacks this year (2nd fewest in the NFL.)  The Eagles gave up 44, and Kansas City does have some pass rushers in Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51

This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past.  That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing.  Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down.  This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.

Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds

If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.

Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19 1/2 rushing yards (-110 - Bet 110 to win 100)

Philadelphia loves them some Kenneth Gainwell.  I feel like this is a lock.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 15 1/2 receiving yards

He has hit this in 6 of the last 9 games.  Could be close with Toney and McKinnon taking dump offs too.

Isiah Pacheco UNDER 11 1/5 rush attempts

Less rushes if he is catching passes, plus 3 other players (Edwards-Helaire, McKinnon, Toney) to take some carries too.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 18 1/2 rushing yards

Dude can scramble, even if the ankle is bad.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks

See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.

Kansas City Chiefs OVER 2 1/2 Sacks

Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis all get at least 1.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 3 1/2 Field goals

High-scoring offenses do not stall in the red zone.

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51

This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past.  That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing.  Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down.  This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.

If both of these teams have an average game, we hit 57.

Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds

If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.

The average time to sing the anthem is 1:47.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks

See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.

I feel like we will see quite a few this game, but spread out throughout the four quarters, not every play like last year.

Last Week's Record:  2-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  155-135-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-8-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($405)

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $679.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $824.50

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVI

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Cincinnati Bengals

I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl (over Kansas City) since the beginning of the year.  Their offense is settling nicely with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel, meaning the Bengals cannot just sit back and double Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr., or just rush Matthew Stafford.  Although, I have lost a lot betting against Cincinnati these playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49

Both teams average 27.1 points per game (tied for 7th), and both give up around 22.  Should be a good scoring game, so I'll take the over.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Evan McPherson OVER 7 1/2 points

If I think he is going to kick at least two field goals, I have to go with over 7 1/2 points.

Cooper Kupp's longest reception OVER 29 1/2 yards

He leads the NLF in targets, meaning he is likely going to be thrown to a lot, and even if he does not get open deep, 846 of his 1,947 regular season yards after the catch. meaning he could take a 15 yarder for over 30.

National Anthem UNDER 2:00 minutes

My standard bet, although last year the line was 2:10.

Matthew Stafford OVER 1 1/2 Passing Touchdowns

Stafford has thrown at least 2 TDs in all but one game dating back to mid-November, and now with Odell Beckham, Jr. being comfortable in this offense, there are more weapons for Stafford to survey against Cincinnati's 26th ranked passing defense.

Los Angeles Rams -$135 OVER 3 1/2 Sacks (Bet $135 to win $100)

The Rams could challenge the Super Bowl record for most sacks in a game - which is currently 7.

Aaron Donald -125 OVER 1.0 Sacks (Bet $125 to win $100)

See above.

Von Miller -200 OVER .5 Sacks (Bet $200 to win $100)

See above.

Cam Akers -$120 Receiving Yards OVER 16 1/2 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Akers is going to be a highly utilized weapon today.

Joe Mixon $-125 OVER 24 1/2 receiving yards (Bet 125 to win $100)

Like Akers, Mixon's value is just being open in space, including wheel routes.  He has gone over this number in each of his last 5 games, and could be utilized to minimize the Rams' pass rush.

Big Bets

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Not as confident giving up points, but I just think the Rams are the much better overall team.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Two field goals seems easily doable.

Last Week's Record:  10-8

Playoff Record:  20-15-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-2

Year-to-Date Record:  163-144-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($304)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($646)  

Picks of the Week

Bets were horrible last week, but thank god for that crazy non-pass interference call, as my casino returned all Saints bets.  Saved me from a horrendously awful week. I will have to do some prop bets to try to catch up for the year however.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Gladys Knight National Anthem OVER 1:45
We can bet that Atlanta-native Gladys is going to want to really put this one out there for all to remember, especially given all of the pressure for her not to sing over solidarity with Colin Kaepernick.

Tom Brady OVER 350 yards passing +$229 (Bet $100 to win $229)
Brady has thrown for 900 yards each of the last two Super Bowls, and the act that the Patriots have been running with Sony Michel gives this bet extra value.  But as great as Michel has been, Belichick is going to rely on Brady when it comes down to a win or lose scenario.

Touchdowns in the first half OVER 1 1/2
As you might recall, last year the teams scored 4 touchdowns in the first half.

Sony Michel Rushing Yards - OVER 80.5
He has gone for over 100 in 3 of his last four games, including in both playoff games. Despite the names on the Rams defensive line, they have not been sufficient run stoppers this year.

Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards OVER 70.5
With the Rams using a 2-headed backfield of Gurley and C.J. |Anderson, I expect Belichick will try to take away Los Angeles's running game.  Although Stephon Gilmore has been amazing this year, Cooks could easily get over 70+ yards, whether the Rams are effective offensively or not.

Roughing the passer penalty will Occur +$105 (Bet $100 to win ($105)
It is called the Tom Brady rule, after all.

Total Touchdowns for the Patriots OVER 2 1/2

Total Touchdowns for the Rams OVER 2/12
Should be some good scoring in this game.

Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I just feel that the Patriots are better.  Even though C.J. Anderson has been a revelation, the fact that it seems like the Rams game plan no longer focuses on Todd Gurley might actually hurt them.  Plus, Belichick knows a bit about defense and is likely to concentrate on shutting the running game down anyway.  I bet against the Patriots two years ago when Atlanta choked away the win.  I bet against them last year when I just thought Philadelphia was better.  I do think New Orleans is better, but they are not here. So, the Pats rarely lose when they are better, and often win when they are not.

New England Patriots -130 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $130 to win $100)
If I think the Patriots are going to cover the spread, then I definitely think they are going to win outright.  Plus, I think only one Super Bowl has been decided by under 3 points, if I can believe the sports site I was reading earlier.  Rams just are not ready yet.

New England Patriots v. Los Angeles Rams OVER 55 1/2
I foresee lots of points being scored in this one.

Big Bet
Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?

Right?

Last Week's Record:  1-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  13-136-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($110)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1620)

Super Bowl Roundtable and Picks of the Week

Since only one game remains - THE SUPER BOWL - I have combined the roundtable discussion with my picks column.  At the roundtable today is Sinickal, Hopps and myself.  We have invited Audio, Geo and Tony to join us to add a bit to the content.

Pepster:  Let's start off with the simplest question, who wins the Super Bowl?

Hopps:  Patriots.

Audio:  Patriots.

Geo:  Man do I hate the Patriots.

Sinickal:  I am rooting for Atlanta.

Pepster:  I have the Falcons.

Pepster:  What do you predict will happen Tony?

Tony:  A stomach ache from eating too fast!  Oh, and the Falcons because I hate New England.

Pepster:  So that leaves the total picks as 4 Falcons and 2 Patriots.  I will start by saying that the Patriots have the NFL leading scoring defense, but are 12th in passing yards.  Atlanta is the first ranked offense in terms of points, third in passing, fifth in rushing and 2nd in total yards.  New England does have the third ranked defense in total points scored, fourth in total yards.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd.

Pepster:  Haven't we established that, multiple times.

Sinickal:  So.

Pepster:  I am going with Atlanta because New England's defensive statistics are a bit overrated in that they did not play a top 10 offense all year.

Hopps:  Brady.

Sinickal:  Yes, the Patriots have Brady.

Geo:  Man, do I hate the Patriots.

Sinickal:  But the Falcons have Julio Jones.  That dude is ALWAYS open.

Audio:  If that happens today, it will only be in the first half.  If Atlanta's passing attack is successful, by halftime Donald Trump will likely deport JULIO Jones AND MOHAMMAD Sanu.

Hopps/Sinickal/Pepster:  *Spit takes*

All:  We will definitely be using that sometime during the game today.

Pepster:  But seriously ...

Hopps:  Bill.

Pepster:  Incredibly succinct Hopps, Brady and Bill.

Hopps:  Yep.

Geo:  Man, I hate the Patriots.

So basically, it is like this ...

Audio:  And, no matter which team wins, Kevin Durant will sign with them this summer.

All:  *Spit takes*

Pepster:  Definitely thank you for joining us today Audio.

Now, on to my picks ...

So last week was successful.  Four wins and two losses, the only losses being the point spread.  Neither underdog covered, but I did have both overs and the money line winners.  Not many picks this week, so I am adding one prop bet.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. New England Patriots
Atlanta was quietly the best team in the NFC this year (yes, better than Dallas), and a large part of it has to do with a vastly improved defense.  Atlanta can get to the quarterback without having to blitz, and they can line up Vic Beasley, Jr. anywhere on the line of scrimmage.  Each of New England's Super Bowl's have been really close.  Atlanta keeps this one close as well.

Atlanta Falcons +130 v. New England Patriot (Bet $100 to win $130)
Yes, Atlanta wins.  Malcolm Butler will have to face a lot better receivers than Seattle brought two years ago.  Plus, a chance to make up a bit more money by picking the underdog.

Atlanta Falcons v. New England Patriots (57 1/2) OVER
The first and fourth highest scoring teams in the league.  Is it so unbelievable to think that each will score 30?  I think not.

Luke Bryan's National Anthem (2:15) UNDER
Lady Gaga went over 2:22 last year, but only because she intentionally held the last note, took a breath, and then extended "brave" again.  (Interestingly enough, because of the extended notes, some Vegas books paid the over, while others paid the under).  Idina Menzel hit the over by 3 seconds two years ago.  Luke Bryan is a country singer.  He will not hit the over.

Last Week's Record:  4-2
Year-to-Date Record:  152-131-5
Playoff Record:  20-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $180
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $10555
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($465)

SUPER BOWL ROUNDTABLE

It is Super Bowl Sunday, and we are glad that you were able to stop by WeMakeItRain where you will hear/read analysis about the game that you cannot get anywhere else.  Joining me today is Sinickal and Hopps, so the whole crew is here.  Joining us are our special guests, Audio and none other than our Patron Saint - Adam "Pacman" Jones himself.

Pepster:  OK guys, let's get the boring stuff out of the way.  Who wins this game?

Sinickal, Hopps and Audio:  HaHaHaHa.  This is funny.

Pepster:  Good point.

Hopps:  Even "Goodfellas" money couldn't stop this line from moving and taking sucker bets of Denver money.

PacMan Jones:  I bet $81,000 in small bills on the Panthers.  In fact, I just walked into the casino and threw the money into the air.  I am assuming the proper bet was made.

Hopps:  This game is over by the end of the first quarter.

Pepster:  Ok, now that that is out of the way, before we get into our normal discussion, we have to address the quarterback situation.  Since this might be Peyton Manning's last game, does a second Super Bowl victory - along with all of his other stats - vault him to the title of best quarterback of all time?

Sinickal, Hopps, Audio, PacMan:  HaHaHaHaHa!  You are killing us.

Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, John Elway:  That Pepster guy is funny!

Sinickal:  Peyton was a great quarterback - not the greatest of all time - but he WAS great.  Now, he is not even close to being remotely average.  In fact, I think that a wide receiver for the Broncos will be decapitated due to a Manning wounded duck.

Audio:  I will put $100 down for a decapitation.

Hopps: *Nods in agreement*  And after that decapitation, I predict that Brock Osweiler will take snaps in this game.  Let's talk about the real story in this game.  Cam Newton.  He is the MVP this year, and at 6'5", 245, he is only one inch shorter and 12 pounds lighter than Rob Gronkowski.  Newton is a beast.  I think he will dab at least 4 times.

Sinickal:  Cam will dab so much, that even Phil Simms will try to dab.  But, we know the NFL, and they will try to put as much emphasis into the Peyton Manning story as much as possible.  In fact, I predict that someone will report that Tom Brady bought Al-Jazeera and ordered the HGH report.

Hopps:  Why can't you all just leave my Patriots alone?

Pepster/Sinickal:  Because they cheat!

Pepster:  Let's get to the real story of this game, and to a statistic pointed out to me by my friend Wass (as reported by Tim Reynolds).  Carolina tight end Greg Olsen has the opportunity to become the first member of the Seventh Floor Crew to win the Super Bowl, with Brandon Merriweather and Tavares Gooden losing in their lone Super Bowl appearances.

Sinickal:  I love that this game has initiated a huge resurgence for the greatest 1-hit wonder group of all time.

Pepster:  Even bigger than Toni Basil, who until 2005 had the greatest 1 hit wonder with "Mickey".  The 7th Floor Crew is also easily the most misogynistic song to ever come out of Miami.

Sinickal:  The Miami sound came with its own G-string and a minimum dimension for ass size.

Pepster:  The most misogynistic song to come out of Miami.  Think about THAT for a minute.

Hopps:  *Tears*

PacMan Jones:  The greatest songs of all time came out of Miami.  Every Two Live Crew song is a must to be played at the strip club.

Pepster:  Because of the resurgence of interest in the 7th Floor Crew, I went back and read some old stories about the group.  One blog listed every lyric from the song that was appropriate to print.  The author wrote, "Is this thing on?  Good."

Hopps:  *More tears*

Pepster:  I predict that I will make at least 17 7th Floor Crew references.  Being a University of Miami fan, Let's give some football credit to G-Reg.  Who honestly thought that the Panthers would have any type of passing game this year once Kelvin Benjamin went out?  Everyone not related to Greg Olsen please put your hands down.  You too Ted Ginn, Jr.

Hopps:  Well, I think Ted Ginn, Jr. will make a sideline ....

Sinickal:  A sideline what?

Hopps:  I don't know.  I was going to say a sideline catch, but then I lost my train of thought thinking about how sick the Miami Dolphins fans were when they drafted Ted Ginn, Jr. instead of Brady Quinn or Amobi Okoye.  That's funny.

Pepster:  That was funny.  What is even funnier is that Ginn has ultimately turned out better than both Quinn and Okoye.  Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch and Darrelle Revis were both drafted after Ted Ginn, Jr.

Pepster:  So, anybody have any sure-fire predictions that they want to make that might be a little unusual?

Hopps:  The halftime show will suck.

Pepster:  We already know that.  It's Coldplay.  That prediction isn't even on the board in Vegas it is so obvious.

Audio:  I have one, I predict at least 2 defensive touchdowns.

PacMan:  I would have one of those if I was able to play against Peyton.  He is horrible.  I wish that we had Andy Dalton for our playoff run.  Damn Steelers.

Audio:  Black and yellow; black and yellow.

Sinickal:  I have two; one football related and one non-football related.  First, Von Miller will try to prevent Cam from giving away a football to a kid.

Pepster:  Do they even allow kids at the Super Bowl anymore?

Sinickal:  And more importantly, the hottest woman shown on television will be a Carolina fan!

Hopps:  Now that is a good pick.

PacMan:  I am sure that is true.  I have played in both cities before.

Pepster:  Now that bet, I like.  I am going to say that Stephen Curry is shown on television at least twice, and he will be wearing something Carolina Panthers-related.

Hopps:  Leave it to the NBA to try to outshine the NFL at the Super Bowl.

Sinickal:  All I know is that I am going to a golf show in the morning, so I am certain that I will buy a new driver.

Pepster:  I am also certain that we will hear several references to Michael Lewis's The Blind Side since Michael Oher starts for the Panthers.

Sinickal:  How can we have this entire conversation without addressing the star defenders in this game, Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Star Lotuleilei, Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, etc., etc., etc.

Pepster:  Because that topic would be actual analysis.  Onward to my picks.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Carolina Panthers

AGAINST THE SPREAD

Carolina Panthers -5 v. Denver Broncos
Denver has no real offense.  Carolina has offense and defense.  Peyton Manning may feel like he "needs" this.  Cam Newton "wants" this.  Want wins.

OVER/UNDER

Carolina Panthers v. Denver Broncos 43 1/2 - OVER

Carolina will get to 30 plus on their own.  I just need 2 touchdowns from Denver.

RANDOM BET

At least 5 total sacks and 1 interception.

No big bet this week because there are only four bets made total.

Last Week's Winners:  1-1
Playoff Winners to Date:  6-4
Last Week's Record:  3-3
Playoff Record:  11-14

Year-to-Date Record: 139-130-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-7
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($195)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $395

Nevermore

Just to get my pics on record.

San Francisco 49ers to win.  Baltimore Ravens to cover.  Under.

Why?  Let me tell you.

First, San Francisco 49ers' vaunted defense has been relatively pedestrian lately.  Aldon Smith, he of the 19 sacks, has only had one since Justin Smith got hurt.  If Justin Smith isn't effective, San Fran might have trouble getting to the quarterback.  If Flacco has time, either Torrey Smith or Anquan Boldin could get open deep, or Dennis Pitta can run away from Willis or Bowman when they are back in coverage.

That being said, I think that San Francisco is overall too talented. and I think they will move the ball on Baltimore.  There are three reasons that Ray Lews leads the NFL in tackles this postseason:  1.  He is playing great; 2.  The Ravens defense has not gotten off the field early in drives, meaning opposing offenses have been taking a lot of snaps; and 3.  Running backs have been getting passed the Ravens defensive line and Lewis's tackles are occuring 5 to 7 yards from the line of scrimmage.

Given the stats above, and with all of the talk about whether or not the Ravens can contain Kapernick, I think Frank Gore could have a great game.

For San Francisco's sake, I do hope it does not come down to a late field goal for Akers.  This has not been his year.

Ruing a Raven

Let me get my Super Bowl pick out of the way.

49ers -3.5/Under 47.5

And now, the rest of this post...

So, this is a story about religion, the media and the assumption of fairness in competition. If you know me, and don't read this carefully, you might think it is about murder, cheating, and paternity and civil suits. Funny how sports can get us here, right?

Look, sports is filled with athletes we love, athletes we despise, and athletes we could care less about. And there are many reasons for why each of these is true. I point to such things as style of play, attitude during competition, or off the field topics. The athletes that I currently love include Kevin Durant, Bryce Harper, Ed Reed, Julio Jones and Derek Jeter. Athletes that I currently despise include Alex Rodriguez, Jay Cutler, Dwight Howard and Darrelle Revis. I could explain why, but it isn't important to this story.

This story is about Ray Lewis. I despise him.

I should make sure that you understand that I believe Ray Lewis is the Greatest inside linebacker that I have seen play in my lifetime. A first ballot Hall Of Famer and the poster for inside linebacker play if you are teaching. Seventeen years of brilliance at the position. And yet, I still don't care for him.

Why? The answer is simple. I don't think that he is all that great a human being and, for me, that means something. Consider the following:

1. Is Ray Lewis a murderer? Of course not. Or, at least I don't belIeve so. But his conviction for obstruction of justice can only lead one to believe that we don't know the full story of what happened in Atlanta, and that he does know significantly more than he testified to. The facts in that case are frightening given the actual punishment handed out. Don't believe me, or remember the case? Read this. Don't forget, he also settled two civil suits out of court with confidentiality agreements.

2. Is Ray Lewis a bad father? Probably not, but I don't really know. What I do know is that he has 6 children by 4 women. That's not good in any culture or religion. In 2000, while partying in Atlanta, he wasn't with his pregnant fiancé, he was escorting another woman around all week. Is that what a role model and a self professed man of God looks like to you?

3. Is Ray Lewis using PEDs? Not sure. But does this pass the smell test? At 37 years old, Ray Lewis recovered from a torn bicep muscle in approximately 2 months. In ALL of athletics, the standard for this type of injury is 6-8 months! By the way, that 37 year old man is currently the leading tackler in the playoffs. I don't care how much you believe in God, do you REALLY believe this? We now know that there are accusations, and we will likely never know what is true, but this just doesn't feel good.

None of this moves me from my position that he is a phenomenal football player. What truly bothers me with this is the self proclaimed prophet status that Lewis has bestowed on himself, and the irrational love affair people seem to have? with this "great" man. And this last ride is horrifying!

Really?

Does Ray Lewis always dance...in front of a camera?
And always mug...in front a camera?
And always caress his owner...in front of a camera?
And always manipulate scripture...in front of a camera?

The media fascination is ridiculous right now, and it is reminiscent of the coverage of Tim Tebow and Jeremy Lin. Of course, as far as we know, neither of them had to hastily dispose of all the clothes they were wearing after a night on the town.

I get that Lewis is a story in this, his last season. I despise him and I always have because I don't think he is real with fans. He is absolutely a leader of men and an athlete that others seek out for leadership. What he is not, is a good and honest person to those fans who look up to him and that should matter a little.

Super Bowl Roundtable

Pepster: OK - It's that time of the year - time for the Super Bowl roundtable. Pats-Giants - Who ya got?

First, since we know that the the Giants are going to have the ball first, either by winning the toss:

Sinickal: Hey - that's my prop bet!

Pepster: ... or because Belicheck loves to defer, let's start with the Giants having the ball. What do we think? Let's start with you Hopps, since you did so well in picking the baseball playoffs.

Hopps: I think that Eli is the better Manning at this point, and he is going to have a huge game, by throwing to, wait for it ... Jake Ballard.

Pepster and Sinickal: What?!

Hopps: I am serious. With all of the attention paid to Nicks, Cruz and Manningham, Ballard is going to end up with over 100 yards, possibly with a back breaking touchdown.

Sinickal: I don't think Ballard is going to that big of a story, maybe one or two catches, but it will be easy for the Giants to exploit that Patriots secondary. I mean Julian Edelman, come on. I wish he was guarding me back when I was in college.

Pepster: I think we are in general agreement that the Patriots defense will have trouble with the Giants offense. However, I think it is going to be a lot of Ahmad Bradshaw. Coughlin will definitely want to prove they can run the ball, after doing so poorly in that department all year.

Sinickal: And speaking of Coughlin, he did go to America's University - have to root for him.

Hopps: I didn't know he went to American University.

Sinickal: Not American - America's.

Pepster: He means Syracuse. Such a homer. What about when the Pats have the ball?

Hopps: The Giants D-line will be the determining factor. Jason Pierre-Paul will get to Brady, and the team will have 4 sacks.

Pepster: They only sacked Brady once in the first game.

Hopps: They are much healthier now. And the Nascar package - Tuck, Umenyiora, JPP, Boley, Kiwanuka - that's a sick pass rush. To counter the pass rush, the Pats will rush for over 100 yards as a team, with a healthy dose of the law firm.

Pepster: What about passing? Brady did throw for over 5K this year.

Hopps: Gronk will be a non-factor, meaning that OchoCinco will have to have a big game.

Sinickal: HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Pepster: General thoughts?

Sinickal: The Giants are better at every position except Tight End and QB, and I am not sold that the QB matchup gap is very big at all. Plus, more bad stuff results from Eli winning that Brady winning. Eli would have beaten Brady in two Super Bowls, making it impossible for Brady to be considered better than Montana or Bradshaw. Eli would have more rings that Peyton. Coughlin would have to be considered one of the greatest coaches of all time.

Pepster: What?

Sinickal: Hear me out. Two Super Bowls, and he was on the sideline for BC the last time that Notre Dame was a number 1 team, and he took the Jacksonville Jaguars to the AFC championship game in their second year of existence. And .... I REALLY HATE BOSTON SPORTS FANS!!!

Hopps: Screw you!

Sinickal: I also want people to realize the curse of Bridget Moynihan. Bridget is 3-0 in Super Bowls, Gisele is 0-1.

Pepster: Selections? I say Giants will win outright, so definitely take the points.

Hopps: Same here.

Sinickal: Its unanimous. I think the line stinks, though. Patriots -3? Most people cannot figure out why the Patriots are even favored in this game. Everything points to the Giants, which means you should "run to the smell"! That is a Steve Czaban rule, but it also fits Gambling Rule No. 4 - they only mistake sports books make is not opening even earlier to take your money.

Pepster: Any prop bets? Mine are times that Madonna is insulted by being on the same stage as Nicki Minaj and MIA - infinity.

Sinickal: I say that a piece of Madonna will fall off on the field during the halftime show. My odds: Wig 6:1, Breast Implant 26:1, Sex Toy 263:1, Tooth 12:1, Jewelry 6:1, Ghost of Sean Penn 65:1.

Pepster: My favorite prop bet is "how many times will Pepster become upset when someone mentions Tim Tebow?". Only acceptable bet is "ALL OF THEM"!

Hopps: Come on guys - get serious. I say the over of 2 i going for it on 4th down, and that the Pats will have more penalty yards than the Giants.

Sinickal: Peyton Manning's name will be mentioned twice in the first quarter - Over.

Pepster: As for a real bet - I am taking the over.

Hopps: I am taking the under.

Sinickal: The O/U is 55 or 54 (depending upon where you shop). I would want to take the under so I will not be betting this. Gambling Rule No. 12 - only bet money on the over. Too much emotional trauma trying to nurse an under home. Remember the old adage - when you are over, it is over.

Pepster: Everyone, enjoy the Super Bowl. And repeat after me ... "JPP for MVP! JPP for MVP"!

Super Bowl Roundtable

Welcome everybody to the Super Bowl Roundtable discussion. Joining me are Sinickal and Hopps. It's the biggest day in American sports, so let us get right to it. Pittsburgh or Green Bay. Since I know what Sinickal is going to say, let's start with you, Hopps. Your thoughts on the game, outright?

Hopps: I have to go with Pittsburgh. Big Ben has been here before, and I think that the defense, led by James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley (not to mention Polamalu), will hit Aaron Rodgers all day.

Sinickal: I agree with you there Hopps. Pittsburgh has a much better defense than the Bears, and other than the opening drive of the NFC championship game, the Bears defense owned Rodgers. If the Bears made life hard for Rodgers, Pittsburgh is definitely going to do the same. The Bears had the Packers on the ropes with a third string quarterback.

Pepster: Don't you mean a 4th string quarterback? When Cutler went down, the Bears put in Todd Collins, and there is no way that he is a second stringer. He has to be a third string quartback. If they replace him with the next guy, Caleb Hanie, then Hanie must be the fourth string.

Sinickal: At least he isn't Henry Burris or Steve Stenstrom.

Pepster: Don't remind me.

Hopps: Plus, I just think that Tomlin is going to have the team much better prepared than the Packers coaching staff. 34 - 31.

Sinickal: Mike Tomlin - I love that magnificent bastard. If he had breasts I would try to marry him.

Pepster: Yes, we all have a man crush on Mike Tomlin, as well. I guess that means that we are all in agreement. We all think that Pittsburgh is going to win this game. Any other interesting thoughts:

Sinickal - not me, bring on the beer. And, Go Steelers. I will never, ever, ever, root for the Green Bay Packers.

Hopps: I have a few. My own personal prop bets. Forget about the over/under, I am picking these exact scenarios:

People carted off the field - 3
Blown ref calls - 2
Brett Favre mentions - 10
Christina Aguilera Hotness - 10.

Very interesting. That concludes our roundtable for today. For my final picks, see below.

OVER 1:54 - Christina Aguilera's national anthem elapsed time

OVER 6 seconds - Christina Aguilera holding "Free"

OVER 3 - Shots of Jerry Jones

OVER 1/2 - A Steeler mimics Aaron Rodgers' championship belt celebration.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2 1/2 over Green Bay Packers

Previous Week's Record: 1-1
Playoff Record: 5-5
Year to Date: 109-78-5
Previous Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-11
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): ($140)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $205

Super Picks of the Week

Here is this week's "Super Bowl Picks of the Week". Thanks to the over bet on the Saints, a great winning week. I am looking to ride that train through the Super Bowl.

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

Indianapolis Colts -5 v. New Orleans Saints
Yes, it would be a great story to have the Saints win. However, I like the Colts defense a bit more than the Saints. With Peyton throwing the ball, I bet he likes the Colts defense a lot more than the Saints. I'll give the points.

Shots of Archie Manning in the stands 2 1/2 OVER
Has to be more than that, right? I figure at least 2 per quarter.

Peyton Manning Completions 24 1/2 OVER
They aren't going to be running the ball very much.

Drew Brees Completions 24 1/2 OVER
He is good for 30-42 I think.

And because this is the Super Bowl, I will make two big bets this week.

BIG BETS OF THE WEEK

Hurricane Katrina references during the broadcast 4 1/2 OVER
I am way surprised that this is not higher.

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts - 56 1/2 OVER
I said last week that I was going to ride this train throughout the playoffs. So I will.

Previous Week's Record: 2-1 (1-0 Big Bet)
Playoffs To Date: 7-5 (2-1 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 101-75-3 (7-5-1)
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): $240
Playoffs Winnings (Losses): $285
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $2060

Catch Me If You Can

This is going to be a quick entry, as we are fast approaching kickoff, so I will say the Pittsburgh Steelers win, and fairly decisively. They definitely cover the spread. I have already read Sinickal's predictions, and I concur wholeheartedly. I think Willie Parker has a great game with lots of yards, and possibly multiple touchdowns. The Steelers defense closes out. Game Over.

Games are usually that simple. You can overthink predictions, and this is why the Super Bowl should be held the week after the conference championship games. However, if most people overthink the game, and that affects the spread in my favor so be it.

Most prognosticators seem to be caught up in the whole Arizona hype/bandwagon. On this front, I was watching a very underrated flick this morning, Catch Me If You Can, in which Tom Hanks is trying to catch a criminal named Frank Abagnale played by Leonardo DiCaprio. I bring this up simply for one quote. After you read Sinickal's last post, you would hate to be caught up in a dilemma that the young Frank Abagnale encounters. He is approached in the hospital by a senior doctor while pretending himself to be an actual doctor. Abagnale's simple response; "I should have concurred. Don't be Frank Abagnale. I concur - Steelers.