Picks of the Week - NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

 

An actual great start to the playoffs, and with a play or two going in the other direction, I could have cut a big chunk into my yearly deficit.  As it is, I am not going to complain as we had some really excellent football during Wildcard Weekend - and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And this week we should have some more phenomenal games.  In the NFC we have 3 western division teams, which have been the class of the conference all year, and the upstart cardiac Chicago Bears, who get to host a game in 20 degree temperatures!  In the AFC, we have one of the best defenses we have ever seen (Houston), one of the best players we have ever seen (Allen), and two teams that are way more than the sum of their parts (Denver and New England).  Let's get to the games!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Everything about this game screams "Broncos!"  They are coming off a bye and Buffalo is on a short week having played a tough game against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Broncos are the number 1 seed in the AFC.  And to top it all off, the money has overwhelming come in on Denver so far as this spread started with Buffalo -1 1/2.  But, It is hard to look at these games and see that Denver is the better team.  Denver's strength is its defense, where it finished 4th overall.  But Buffalo's defense finished 7th overall, giving up only 3 yards more per game.  And, Buffalo has the much - MUCH - better offense (3rd overall and 4th in scoring versus Denver's 12th overall and 14th in scoring).  And who do you trust more to make plays - Josh Allen or Bo Nix?

Buffalo Bills EVEN Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

This line also opened with Buffalo being -112, so the money is definitely coming in on the Broncos.  But, I don't follow early money; I follow late money, and I suspect the late money will start coming in on the Bills.  For all of the reasons stated above, and because Buffalo has the number 1 ranked rushing offense in the NFL, I think the Bills will not only cover, but win outright.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos UNDER 46 1/2

I mentioned above that the Bills have the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL, and relying on a rushing game takes time off the clock - and lessens possessions.  Add to that fact that Denver has the second-best defense against the run in the NFL and this game is going to be a slog.

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

San Francisco 49ers +270 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $270) at Seattle Seahawks

It is one thing to take the points in this game, but the Moneyline?  This is purely a numbers pick.  Seattle is at -340 right now, meaning I would have to be $340 to win $100, so the ML spread is about $610, so I am taking this bet knowing Seattle is likely to win, but taking a low-risk flyer for some actual money.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45

Did you see the last score of 13-3 just two weeks ago?

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Yes New England will be at home in inclement weather, but it isn't like Houston has a high-flying offense.  They win with tough - and I mean TOUGH - defense (number 1 in the NFL in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense).  New England is no slouch in that department either (8th in Total defense and 4th in scoring defense), but their offense is way more likely to be affected by the weather than Houston's. Add that to the fact that Houston has probably forgotten how to lose (as they haven't lost since an 18-15 defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 on November 2, and I will gladly take points here.

Houston Texans +150 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $150) at New England Patriots

Yes, the underdogs are flying here this weekend, as it seems that we have the weakest group of hosts in recent memory for the divisional round.  Honestly, the smart play if probably a New England victory here, but until Houston loses, I am going to keep taking them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

Chicago Bears +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

So I am taking all 4 underdogs, even though in this game the underdog is the home team.  The Bears, even in defeat, have done nothing but keep final games close.  Add to that the fact that the game will be played in about 21 degree weather with wind, and you can rest assured that both teams will rely on their run games, which has a tendency to keep games close.

Chicago Bears +172 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $172) v. Los Angeles Rams

If I am going to go all the way with underdogs, I might has well go ALL THE WAY with underdogs!

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears OVER 48 1/2

This bet makes no sense, even to me and I am making it, but I cannot select 4 underdogs AND 4 unders.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

This game just has to be close, right?

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

I am all-in on this Houston Defense.  One of the best three or four I have ever seen.  1985/1986 Bears; Early 2000s Ravens, the Tampa Bay Super Bowl winner (not with Brady), and this one.  Scary good.

Last Week Record: 12-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 12-6 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1 

Year-to-Date Record: 138-148-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-13

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $611.80

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $611.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,488.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther

The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2

The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears

But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2

I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.

 

Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles

A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2

A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots

If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2

Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2

Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

NFL Quarter-Season Review

 

As anyone who knows us knows - we are huge NFL fans here at We Make It Rain. And like any good NFL fans, we watch more than our share of games every year. This year is no exception. Since we have all of this NFL knowledge just seething to get out of our craniums, I thought that I would resurrect an old feature from way-back in the day - the quarter-season review.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season. 

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (4-0)

The class of this division, most likely the conference, and possibly even the NFL at this point.  Josh Allen starting off on a repeat-MVP type of season, and James Cook back to his old touchdown-scoring self.  And the defense is stepping up, as it is the stoutest defense against the pass and 9th in Total Defense,

New England Patriots (2-2)

A surprisingly spry start for the Patriots who have definitely found their quarterback in Drake Maye.  They will lose some that they shouldn't as the running game is lacking (26th), but they will win some they shouldn't as their rush defense is strong (2nd).

Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Lots of holes on this team as they are 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  And, they just lost Tyreek Hill for the season.

New York Jets (0-4)

Just dreadful.  At least Justin Fields will make some plays exciting as he is funning for his life.  This team IS somehow 3rd in the NFL in rushing, which ain't nothing.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Doing this with smoke-and-mirrors and an ayuhuasca-addled Aaron Rodgers.  The Steelers are 29th in Total Offense and 28th in Total Defense, yet they are 3-1.  I do not expect them to stay high in the Power Rankings all year, but Mike Tomlin might actually be the best coach in NFL history.  He has done more with less than any other coach.  Please note that I am not saying that he has never had talent, but even when he doesn't have a lot of talent, his teams are still good.

Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Starting off 2-0 with Joe Burrow is way different than finishing at least the majority of the season without him.  The fact that the defense is 29th in total defense doesn't help matters, either.

Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

Easily the best 1-3 team of all time with their losses to the Bills/Lions/Chiefs - but they are still only 1-3.  The trepidatiously await the results of Lamar Jackson's MRI today.

Cleveland Browns (1-3)

time to give Dillon Gabriel a chance.  And if that doesn't work, Shadeur Sanders.  And look to trade Myles Garret to get a haul of picks in the next two to three years.  This year is O-V-E-R.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Maybe New York/New Jersey was the problem and not Daniel Jones.  The Colts have the 3rd overall offense in the NFL (4th passing?!) and have scored the 4th-highest amount of points.  The defense is less stout than usual (17th overall) but is T8th against the run.  And, they have Jonthan Taylor and Nick Cross who are among the NFL's best at their positions, and the emerging star Tyler Warren.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

One of the surprises of the year - at least to me - and their one loss was prior to Joe Burrow's injury in Cincinnati.  Travis Etienne is leading a rushing group that is 4th in the NFL, keeping the time of possession in the Jags' favor, and the rush defense is also 4th in the league.

Houston Texans (1-3)

So disappointing.  We may have seen the best of C.J. Stroud (23rd in Passing Offense).  Defense is tough, as they lead the league in Scoring Defense and are 7th in Total Defense.

Tennessee Titans (0-4)

Worst team in the league, but on the bright side, Cam Ward looks like he belongs!

AFC WEST

Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are balanced on both sides of the ball (7th in Total Offense and 4th in Total Defense), and could make a deep run in the playoffs.  However, they have lost both tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and that could ultimately spell their downfall this season.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

They started off 0-2 with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, but boy what a difference Xavier Worthy makes.  The Chiefs offense was humming in this week's victory over the Ravens, scoring 37.  And what a difference Chris Jones makes, as his return also coincided with the Chiefs defeat of the Ravens.  Will be scary for the rest of the year (Stop me if you have heard this before!)

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Losses to the Colts (by 1) and Chargers (by 3) are not bad losses by any stretch of the imagination, especially since Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton seem to be on the same page these last two weeks.  That could be dangerous to the rest of the league, as Denver is already 5th in the NFL in Rushing Offense.  The defense, led by Nick Bonitto is T2 in Scoring Defense and T3 in third-down percentage defense.

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)

They may have an emerging star at running back in Ashton Jeanty, but Geno Smith is nowhere near his Seattle-level of play.  Defense isn't helping matters as they are 20th in Total Defense despite Maxx Crosby's stellar play.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)

At 4-0, clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they are undefeated despite have the 30th ranked Total Offense in the league and the 22nd ranked Total Defense.  Sound victory over Tampa this weekend shows that they just might be better than the stats show - or they could revert to the mean.

Washington Commanders (2-2)

A way different team with Jayden Daniels injured, but the second-best rushing offense using a multitude of running backs can at least keep you in every game.

Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1_

At times they have looked awful (a 31-14 loss to the Bears and a 3-point victory over the Giants), and then they come out of nowhere and tie the Green Bay Packers 40-40.  Dak Prescott leads the NFL in passing, and is spreading the ball around in the wake of losing CeeDee Lamb for a bit to injury.  Defense is atrocious though - last in the league in Total Defense and 31st in Scoring Defense.

New York Giants (1-3)

The plusses are that they are finally starting Jaxson Dart and have played gritty.  The negative is that Malik Nabers is lost for the year.

.

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions (3-1)

A two-touchdown loss to the Packers in week 1 is the only blemish in an otherwise stellar resume.  The lead the NFL in scoring, and are 8th in Total Offense, while maintaining a respectable 13th-rankin in Total Defense.  They will be a team to reckon with in the playoffs, and a likely NFC Championship game participant barring injuries.

Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)

The Packers started off as literally the best team in the league in the first two weeks.  Then, a 13-10 loss to Cleveland and a 40-40 tie against Dallas.  Has the league figured out Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur?  They do boast the 6th best Total Defense (2nd against the rush) and the offense is ranked 9th, but have they lost some luster?

Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

J.J. McCarthy is hurt, but it seems the offense might be better without him.  The Bears let them off the hook in week 1, and the Vikes other win was a thrashing of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team.  They are 3rd against the pass defensively, but their 22nd Total Offense ranking leaves a lot to be desired.  Could go either way this season.

Chicago Bears (2-2)

They definitely look much better this year, and Caleb Williams is well on his way to setting team single-season records for yards and touchdowns.  The rushing game needs to improve (24th) as does the rushing defense (32nd) to make any real noise, but the improvement is there.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Tampa Bay has played fantastic, despite having been cut-down by injuries.  They have been led by the defense which is 5th in Total Defense, and Rush Defense, while the offense is middle-of-the-pack.  The one dangerous sign is that each of their three wins has been on last-minute drives by Baker Mayfield.  The good thing is that they know they can win last-minute drives!

Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

The fact that Atlanta is only 2-2 is fascinating.  They are like the anti-Eagles, in that all of their stats say "Undefeated!"  They have the 6th ranked Total Offense (9th in passing and 7th in rushing) ANZD the 2nd ranked Total Defense (including 2nd against the pass).  One of the losses was a 30-0 drubbing at the hands of the lowly Carolina Panthers.

Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Really, really bad, and except for the 30-0 blowout of the Falcons, one could say that they are horrible and that the Bryce Young pick was a waste.

New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Easily the bottom-dweller of the NFC.  Only stats you need to know:  28th in scoring and 30th in scoring defense.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

Surprisingly spry considering the amount of injuries they have suffered.  All of the time these backups have been playing is only going to make them deeper and more dangerous as the year progresses.  The Fred Warner-led defense is 3rd in Total Defense, and 7th in Scoring Defense.  The offense, that even lost Brock Purdy for a couple of games, is 2nd in Passing Offense and 5th in Total Offense.

Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Rams have been fantastic besides, even though two of their wins are against the Texans and Titans.  They are 4th in Total Offense and 10th in Total Defense, without any real contribution in the pass game outside of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Seattle is a surprising 3-1, but we forget that Sam Darnold is a more than serviceable regular season quarterback.  The team is 6th in Scoring Offense and Tied for 2nd in Scoring Defense.  That will win you a lot of games.  Plus, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having an Offensive Player of the Year type of year.

Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Arizona is an unusual 202, as they rank 28th in Total Offense and 23rd in Total Defense.  Kyler Murray is going to stunt Marvin Harrison, Jr.'s growth - and potential stardom.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Buffalo Bills 4-0

2.  Philadelphia Eagles 4-0

3.  Los Angeles Chargers 3-1

4.  Detroit Lions 3-1

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

6.  San Francisco 49ers

7.  Los Angeles Rams 3-1

8  Indianapolis Colts 3-1

9.  Seattle Seahawks 3-1

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1

11.  Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

12.  Green Bay Packers 2-1-1

13.  Kansas City Chiefs 2-2

14.  Denver Broncos 2-2

15.  Washington Commanders 2-2

16.  New England Patriots 2-2

17.  Minnesota Vikings 2-2

18.  Chicago Bears 2-2

19.  Atlanta Falcons 2-2

20.  Arizona Cardinals 2-2

21.  Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

22. Dallas Cowboys 1-2-1

23.  Baltimore Ravens 1-3

24.  Houston Texans 1-3

25.  Las Vegas Raiders 1-3

26.  New York Giants 1-3

27.  Miami Dolphins 1-3

28.  Cleveland Browns 1-3

29.  Carolina Panthers 1-3

30.  New York Jets 0-4

31.  New Orleans Saints 0-4

32.  Tennessee Titans 0-4

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Defensive MVP - Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week - Conference Championship Weekend

Boy did I take a beating.  I thought for sure that the Rams were the one team that was going to be the surprise from last weekend, but alas it was the Commanders, and for that, I lost a ton.  Gotta make some of that back this weekend so that I can find enough prop bets in the Super Bowl to finish well this season.  But, it all starts today.  And I hope, like all of us, that we do not have to see Jalen Hurts throw for 116 yards in the Super Bowl.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

This spread opened at 4 1/2, and enough money came in on the Eagles to move this 2 whole points.  That is insane.  My only guess is that dumb people make dumb bets (as the readers of this blog can attest!)  But lets delve a bit deeper into this.  Washingon and Philadelphia split the season series, with the Eagles winning at home in Week 11 26-18, and Washington winning at home in week 16 36-33, but this is the game in which Jalen Hurts left with a concussion.  That being said, the Commanders have now won 7 in a row, and are playing much better than in week 11.  Plus, if you add to the fact that Philadelphia may lose some key players, including those on the offensive line, to injury, or at the very least they willnot be playing 100%, and this has the feeling of a game that should be within a touchdown.  Because of that, I will take 6 1/2 points.

Washington Commanders +235 at Philadelphia (Bet $100 to win $235)

If I had a gun to my head, I would actually bet Philadelphia to win this game.  Close, but to win it.  Both teams like to rush the ball, with Philly second in the NFL and Washington third (but over a 25 yards per game difference between them), but Philly is better against the rush (10th) than the Commanders (30th).  But when the running game slows down, Washington's pass offense was 17th in yards, but with Daniels make key - and I mean KEY - throws.  The Eagles are 29th in the league in passing offense, despite having A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.  Terry McLaurin has proven he can come up big, and with the money line favoring a bet on Washington here, versus being -285/-290 for Philadelphia, I have to take it, and hope for another upset.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 46 1/2

I really have no reason to pick either the over or the under on this one, so I am just going to try to hope for a fun, high-scoring game.  given that the teams combine to score an average of 55.6 points per game (although they only give up 40.8), I expect at least 1 quick score each, meaning I only need 33 points for the rest of the game.

Buffalo Bills +2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Lots of people have lost lots of money betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in big spots.  But, this year just FEELS different.  Yes the Chiefs won home-field advantage with a 15-2 record, but most of their wins were close, and one of the losses was 30-21 at these same Buffalo Bills.  Statistically Buffalo is better on offense (12th versus 17th total; 9th versus 14th passing; 9th versus 22nd rushing; 2nd versus 15th scoring), with Kansas City being better on defense (8th versus 19th total; 18th versus 24th passing; 8th versus 12th rushing, 4th versus 11th scoring).  I feel that James Cook (along with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis) could be the difference with Cook having gained 281 more yards that Kareem Hunt on only 7 more carries.  If Buffalo gets up, then perhaps Patrick Mahomes throws a key interception or fumbles during a run trying to get a first down.  And, the lack of super-talented wide-receivers has to come back to haunt the Chiefs as Travis Kelce cannot continue to operate as the only option through the air.

Buffalo Bills +110 at Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $100 to win $110)

I hate betting on both underdogs today, as usually the best way to get to the Super Bowl is to be the better team, and Philadelphia and Kansas City have been the better teams all year, excpet Buffalo and Kansas City seem even, and the odds with the +110 are better to me that the -130, when trying to dig out of a hole.  (Ed. note - Children, this is a horrible reason to place a wager).  Back to the analysis, Buffalo makes enough plays to win and head back to the Super Bowl for the first time in a long time.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 48 1/2

Only because we have seen this play out before in the playoffs, with someone trying to outscore Patrick Mahomes, creating a shootout mentality among both teams.

Big Bets:

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

This spread opened at 4 1/2, and enough money came in on the Eagles to move this 2 whole points.  That is insane.  My only guess is that dumb people make dumb bets (as the readers of this blog can attest!)  But lets delve a bit deeper into this.  Washingon and Philadelphia split the season series, with the Eagles winning at home in Week 11 26-18, and Washington winning at home in week 16 36-33, but this is the game in which Jalen Hurts left with a concussion.  That being said, the Commanders have now won 7 in a row, and are playing much better than in week 11.  Plus, if you add to the fact that Philadelphia may lose some key players, including those on the offensive line, to injury, or at the very least they willnot be playing 100%, and this has the feeling of a game that should be within a touchdown.  Because of that, I will take 6 1/2 points.

Most of my analysis is complete, but this is my big bet simply because I am taking the points.  It is that simple.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-2

Year-to-Date Record:  149-142-11

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-12

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($901.15)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,502.65)

Picks of the Week

 

As expected, last week was a cluster - A1 certified cluster.  But what to expect when we don't even know who will be playing or for how long half the time.  I will say BOOO to the Dallas Cowboys for playing Trey Lance the entire game, keeping Cooper Rush from hitting a $250,000 bonus, and a big kudos to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who threw one last pass to Mike Evans securing 1,000 yards on the season, and a $3 million bonus.  

It's playoff time, so hopefully it is time to use everything we learned this year to make some real money!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 at Houston Texans

The Chargers defense is the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL.  Houston's defense is no slouch either, finishing 6th against the pass and 7th in total defense.  But, J.K. Dobbins is expected to return, and that can only open up things for a Justin Herbert-led passing offense that has discovered a true weapon in Ladd McConkey.

Los Angeles Chargers -155 at Houston Texans (Bet $155 to win $100)

If I am willing to pick the Chargers against the spread on the road, then -155 is not enough of a change to warrant a hedge bet and taking Houston.  If it was -180 or something, then I might have thought about it, but not for this.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans OVER 41 1/2

The defenses are too good for this to be a shootout, but this line is low  Simething like 27-20 or 27-17 seems right to me.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This line may seem really high for an intradivisional game in which the teams split during the regular season, but the Steelers that defeated the Ravens 18-16 in week 11 are not the same Steelers that Baltimore decimated 34-17 in Week16, or even the ones that are playing now.

Baltimore Ravens -550 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $550 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 1st against the run, which should minimize what little strength on offense the Steelers have (11th in rushing/27th in passing).  The Ravens on offense are the best rushing team in the NFL averaging over 187 yards per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 1/2

Baltimore will have over 30 themselves behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.  Yes, losing Zay Flowers hurts, but that just means an increase in two-tight end sets with Isaiah Likely joining Mark Andrews, and that is dangerous to defenses, especially in short yardage situations.

Buffalo Bills -8 v. Denver Broncos

I have seen this line as high as 9 1/2, so if I can take 8 I will.  This is the end of a Cinderella-like run for Denver this year, and although their future could be bright with some more offensive weapons, this isn't their year.

Buffalo Bills -425 v. Denver Broncos (Bet $425 to win $100)

Buffalo is just better, and they will win this game.  So, have to take them in the money line - no doubts.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills OVER 47 1/2

Not including last week's game where Buffalo rested everybody, they have scored on their own 40, 24, 48, 42, 35, 30,30,30 31, and 34 in their previous 10 games.  Sure looks like a good over bet to me as all we will need is Denver to score SOMETHING.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Philadelphia Eagles -240 (Bet $240 to win $100)

I hate not having some money line to hedge my bets against the favorites (and yes, the Chargers are the favorites even though they are the lower seeded team and playing on the road), but I feel that Philly is going to slam Green Bay, so I have to take it.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2

Both teams defenses shoould keep this really low scoring, and I do not expect Green bay to contribute much toward the total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Washington Commanders

Great season by Washington, led by the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (it should be Brock Bowers, but I digress).  Baker Mayfield has this Bucs offense humming along, as they are 4th in scoring, 4th in rushing, 3rd in passing, 3rd in total offense and 1st in 3rd down percentage.  Compare that to Washingon's defense which is 3rd against the pass, but 30th against the run, 11th in total defense, and 18th in scoring defense.  Daniels will make plays to keep the Commanders in the game, but Tampa should be too much.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -160 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $160 to win $100)

This might ordinarily be one of the games where I would hedge a bet, but the spread just isn't big enough to do that.  Bucky Irving will have a big game, keeping the Commanders offense off the field.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 50 1/2

If you can't take the under on the highest O/U on the board, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

In a game moved to Glendale because of the massive fires in Los Angeles and Los Angeles County, you would think the Rams would lose their home-field advantage, which they earned by winning their division - even though Minnesota had a better record.  But, everybody is going to be cheering for the Rams, securing their "home field".  Also, they have a lot to play for on behalf of all of LA (as do the Chargers).  I look a lot at the Week 8 game in which the Rams won 30-20 in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp's first games back from injury.

Los Angeles Rams +125 v. Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $125)

If I think an underdog is going to win outright, then I absolutely am going to take them for the money line.  

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Big Bets:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Green Bay is done for this year.  The Bears lost last week was a symptom that this is not the same team as earlier in the season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Lots of offensive firepower is hard to shut down for 60 minutes.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-128-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-9

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($815)

Picks of the Week

We are back to the beginning of a new football season!!!  Hooray!!!  And, if yesterday's college games are any indication, we don't know anything.  That is often true about the first few weeks of any season, as we really don't know how new players - rookies or otherwise - will fare on their new teams, how new coaches and coaching staffs will gel with their players, or how critical players losses will affect an established team.  The good thing is, neither do the actuaries that set the betting lines.  Key point - the first 3 weeks or so are the best time to take advantage.  Let's hope we can do that!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

So, my undefeated season will bnot come to fruition.  I guess the rumors of Dak's shoulder still causing him problems was overrated.  Still, I had Tampa Bay in my survivor pool, so I'll take it.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles 

Both teams project to be dismal this year.  I initially thought about taking the points, but I will settle for the home team and hope they actually use their running back, Mike Davis.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. New York Jets

Rookie quarterback starting game 1 versus the man he replaced.  Panthers have more weapons.

Washington Football Team -2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In Fitzy I trust.  But seriously, the reason is the old adage, never bet on the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  Historically the home east coast team in this situation covers 2/3 of the time.  Also, Washington has the best defensive line in the league.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it, I hate.  But, as I stated in the preamble, we don't know anything yet about this season, so I will stick the the betting rule that led me to select Washington earlier.

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is the one west coast team that thrives covering the spread when playing the early game on the east coast (and yes, Indianapolis is in the eastern time zone).  I don't like giving up the points here, but the Colts don't really know how to play with Carson Wentz yet, either.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Imagine what Joe Burrow could have done if Cincinnati had drafted him Penei Sewell to protect him.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Houston Texans

Tyrod Taylor often surprises, but this Texans team is hideous.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

J.J. Watt is not the type of defensive upgrade that would lead a team to stopping Derrick Henry.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Nobody knows what is going to happen here with these 2 Alabama quarterbacks, so I will take the points.

Denver Broncos -3 at New York Giants

I just love rooting for Teddy Two Gloves.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at New Orleans

Has any player ever gone on a revenge tour against their own team?  If not, well now here it is.  Aaron Rodgers' Revenge Tour against the Green Bay Packers.  Starts today.

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's revamped offensive line versus Cleveland's rushers.  I'll take the points, even though I think Kansas City wins.

Los Angeles Rams -8 v. Chicago Bears

With Justin Fields in the game, I might take 8.  Not with Andy Dalton.  Let's see if Matt Stafford likes all of his shiny new toys on offense.

Las Vegas Raiders +4 v. Baltomore Ravens

Getting points at home in a big prime time game?  Yes, please.  Especially since we don't exactly know how the Ravens running back situation is going to play out, especially since Latavious Murray likely isn't in game shape yet.

  

Big Bet

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Josh Allen's campaign to finish third in the MVP voting begins today.

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs

A ho-hum start to the playoffs makes this weekend's games even more important.  And, with only 4 games on the agenda, it is time to add the over/under into the calculations.  I hate that I do this column to pick all the games, when anything can happen between tonight and tomorrow (see the Saints backup center testing positive for Covid-19), but that is the way the NFL schedules games, so here are all the games.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

I dub this game, the game of three Aarons:  Rodgers, Donald and Jones.  The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Los Angeles Rams v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 45 1/2

This was a tough call for me, because I think the Packers will score more against the vaunted Rams defense than people expect.  But, I don't think the Rams will score much at all.  So, I am picking the under.  A 30-10 or 31-14 score would not surprise me.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

The weather is the wild card in this game, as snow is predicted.  That probably won't affect the Ravens offense as much as they rely way more on the run (1st in the NFL) than the pass (last in the NFL), and with a stout defense (2nd in scoring defense, 6th in total defense).  This will test the Bills rushing defense (17th in the league) and snow always affects passing games, upon which the Bills rely (3rd in the NFL).  But, Josh Allen thrives in leaving the pocket on pass plays (either planned or as a result of pressure) and I feel that both he and Stefon Diggs are both going to cause defenders to lose their footing, which will account for some big plays.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills UNDER 49 1/2

I hate multiple unders, but the snow is what is keeping me at this number.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

The Chiefs have the nmber 1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL.  Plus, did any of you watch their playoff run last year.  Cleveland does come into this game after a scorching performance against Pittsburgh, but does anybody believe that if there were 8-10 more minutes extra last week that Cleveland wins that game?  No?  I thought so.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 57

Cleveland's offense is rolling a bit, so I say 38-21 or 35-24.  That ballpark puts me in the over territory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints

It is with trepidation that I make this selection, especially given that New Orleans has already beaten Tampa Bay twice this year, but this is not the same Tampa team, particularly offense, since that week 9 loss.  Tampa has scored 31, 44, 47, 31 and 26 in their last 5 games, all wins.  Adding Antonio Brown allowed the team to give extra healing time to Mike Evans, who is back, and when Antonio Brown is your third receiver, good things are going to happen offensively.  That is a lot of people to cover (Evins, Godwin, Brown, Jones, Fournette, Gronkowski, Brate).  If anyone can slow down Tampa's 2nd ranked passing offense (and 3rd ranked scoring offense), it could be the Saints (4th in total defense and rushing defense, 5th in passing defense and scoring defense).  But, beating a team three times in one year is difficult, so I feel Tampa keeps this close, at least.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2

Just too much offense between Tampa Bay and the Saints (5th in scoring offense).  I have to take the over on this

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Los Angeles Rams

The class of the NFC this entire year, the Packers have the number 1 scoring offense in the NFL, and probably just as importantly, the number 2 in 3rd down percentage.  And, their offense is balanced too, ranking 8th in rushing and 9th in passing.  Plus, the defense is strong, ranking 8th in the NFL in passing offense.  The Rams have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and 3rd in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage).   But, their offense is challenged, although with Cam Akers running the ball their rushing offense is tremendously improved.  Jared Goff playing makes a big difference, but is he fully healthy?  I think not.  This is Green Bay's game to win, and they should win handily.

Aaron Rodgers owes my a big bet win, so here we go.

Last Week's Record:  2-3-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  2-3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  129-129-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $20

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $20

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1105)