Picks of the Week - Super Bowl Sunday!

 

An absolute shambles of a season, and I do not expect this Super Bowl to be any different.  Hoping to find some really good-looking prop bets to try to salvage something for the year!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 1/2 V. Seattle Seahawks

Let's be honest here, Seattle is by far the better team.  But, New England does have a really good defense of its own (4th in Scoring Defense, 8th in Total Defense).  And, given that this spread moved an extra point overnight in Seattle's favor, I will take it.

 

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45 1/2

Tough - and I mean Tough defenses.  Both of their averages on the season total 36 points given up.

Charlie Puth National Anthem UNDER 119 minutes

Why not?!

Interception on Playing Starting in the Red Zone -160 (Bet $160 to win $100)

Had to take this bet given the Super Bowl history between the two teams.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Kayshon Boutte OVER 2 1/2 receptions

Somebody will have to catch the ball, and I expect the Seahawks will take away Stefon Diggs as much as possible.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 4 1/2 rushing yards

Seattle will find ways to utilize this weapon, and a couple of jet sweeps might do it.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 32 1/2 receiving + rushing yards

See above.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Total Field Goals Made OVER 3 1/2

See above!

Hunter Henry OVER 38 1/2 receiving yards

A lot of checkdowns today!

Trayveon Henderson OVER 4 Receiving yards

This could be just one reception!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seattle is THE best team today, and it isn't even close.  The Patriots barely beat the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham starting at QB.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Last Week Record: 5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 18-18 

Playoff Big Bet:  2-4

Year-to-Date Record: 144-158-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 8-16

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $375

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($453.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,453.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 7

 

In short, I have no idea what is going on this year, and neither do you!  That is all.  That is the preamble for this week.  I got nothing!  I will say that I am just going to stick to the betting rules and see what happens for a couple of weeks.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Yeah, this will be fun.  Taking the team with the worst offense and the second to worst defense in Cincinnati.  Literally 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense.  But then again, Pittsburgh is 30th in offense and 27th in defense.  So, maybe this isn't awful taking a home underdog in an intra-divisional game and the home team on a short week - especially since it is the same team.  Go Joe Flacco, I guess?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams (in London)

There are a whole lot of Londoners that probably believe Blake Bortles should be in the Hall of Fame, as the Jaguars always play great in their adopted home city.  Matthew Stafford is playing great this year - top 3 in the MVP right now for me - but both teams score about the same amount of points (23.3 for Rams and 23.2 for Jacksonville), so I will take the points.  Also note, underdogs have done really well overseas this year, not just against the spread.

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Hey, they Bears have won 2 consecutive games 25-24, so they have the ability to keep the games close.  And, both of those were on the road.  But, they are on a short week and Spencer Rattler is showing some signs of life as a starting NFL quarterback.  Bears win, but maybe this time 24-20?

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game feels like it should be 6 1/2 points, especially since we have no earthly idea how the Titans are going to react to the Brian Callahan firing.  This could actually fire up the players.  But, the Patriots are in first place in the division, and they have to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs given the state of the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This pick is all about defense:  Miami's is 30th in Total Defense (20th in Pass Defense; 32nd in Rush Defense; and 29th in Scoring Defense), whereas Cleveland's is 2nd in Total Defense (7th in Pass Defense; 3rd in Rush Defense and 21st in Scoring Defense).  Loser of this game loses its coach!

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 at New York Jets

Carolina is 3-3 and on a 2-game winning streak.  The Jets are winless.  Carolina is doing this with defense (7th in Total Defense and 9th against the rush), which could help against the lone bright spot for the Jets - its 5th-ranked rushing offense.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I like Minnesota a lot better with Carson Wentz than with J.J. McCarthy, especially behind the 6th ranked defense (5th in scoring).  Philadelphia is a good team, but nowhere near as good as their reputation as the defending champion.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are rounding into form.  A double-digit favorite against a division rival form, probably not, but what the hell.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. New York Giants

Once again, it is defense as Denver is 4th in Total Defense, 6th in Rushing Defense, 4th in Passing Defense, and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Nick Bonitto for MVP!

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I'll admit it; I am late to the Indianapolis Colts train, and I still might not be there.  And, I am a big fan of the Chargers' potential this year.  BUT, the Colts are a ridiculously balanced offensive team (5th in passing yards and 6th in rushing yards), and score the most points in the league.  And, although the defense isn't great, it is the 4th stingiest to score upon, even if they do give up yards.  So, the I will take the fact that they are getting points here.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Listen, I DO NOT LIKE THIS BET.  But, the Commanders are on a short week and the Cowboys are at home getting points to an intra-divisional opponent.  I'll take them.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

After starting off 2-0 (against the Saints and Panthers mind you) the Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak.  I expect that to continue as this Cardinals team is not good.  The Packers didn't look great last week, but they won handily, and I expect them to do the same here.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Fred Warner hurts this squad - literally and figuratively - but I expect San Francisco to rally just like they have all year in replacing almost everybody to injury at some point already.  Plus, Atlanta is on a short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Detroit Lions

First off, this is way too many points the way the Buccaneers have been playing.  This should be about a 2 1/2 point line.  So, I will take the extra 3 points.  And, Tampa's offense is humming behind Baker Mayfield (7th in passing and 6th in scoring.  And, the 5th-rated rush defense could potentially hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check.  I expect this game to be fun to watch, and close.  When it's close, I will gladly take points.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

I am doing it.  Seattle at home on Monday night.  Crowd should be electric.  I'll take it.

Last Week Record:  5-10

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  40-53

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($765)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($2,505) 

Picks of the Week

On vacation so I don't really have time to analyze my own picks, but it is week 17 so who knows who is actually going to play and for how long anyway.  Just going to wing it, before I have to pack and check out of my Air-BnB in Nashville. Place is hopping for tonight's game, though.  Lots of Colts fans in town.  Besides, all of the normal and usual betting rules are thrown out the window this week as each team will be playing with different motivations (qualify for the playoffs, don't get hurt for the playoffs, don't put too much on film for the playoffs, play backups to see if they are ready for next year, throw in the towel, etc.).

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +5 at Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Houston Texans -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

New Orleans -7 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers 

New York Giants -7 v. Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Oakland Raiders +14 at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at Washington Racists

Los Angeles Chargers -7 at Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers + 10 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Jets have been playing well since Sam Darnold's return, and this is not the normal Patriots.  The Patriots may still win and secure a playoff bye, but this should not be a runaway victory for them.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  118-111-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($215)