Picks of the Week - Super Bowl Sunday!

 

An absolute shambles of a season, and I do not expect this Super Bowl to be any different.  Hoping to find some really good-looking prop bets to try to salvage something for the year!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 1/2 V. Seattle Seahawks

Let's be honest here, Seattle is by far the better team.  But, New England does have a really good defense of its own (4th in Scoring Defense, 8th in Total Defense).  And, given that this spread moved an extra point overnight in Seattle's favor, I will take it.

 

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45 1/2

Tough - and I mean Tough defenses.  Both of their averages on the season total 36 points given up.

Charlie Puth National Anthem UNDER 119 minutes

Why not?!

Interception on Playing Starting in the Red Zone -160 (Bet $160 to win $100)

Had to take this bet given the Super Bowl history between the two teams.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Kayshon Boutte OVER 2 1/2 receptions

Somebody will have to catch the ball, and I expect the Seahawks will take away Stefon Diggs as much as possible.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 4 1/2 rushing yards

Seattle will find ways to utilize this weapon, and a couple of jet sweeps might do it.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 32 1/2 receiving + rushing yards

See above.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Total Field Goals Made OVER 3 1/2

See above!

Hunter Henry OVER 38 1/2 receiving yards

A lot of checkdowns today!

Trayveon Henderson OVER 4 Receiving yards

This could be just one reception!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seattle is THE best team today, and it isn't even close.  The Patriots barely beat the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham starting at QB.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Last Week Record: 5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 18-18 

Playoff Big Bet:  2-4

Year-to-Date Record: 144-158-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 8-16

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $375

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($453.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,453.20)

Picks of the Week - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

This season has been a shit-show, so last weekend should have been no surprise, even with a great start to the playoffs in the Wildcard Round.  I am not going to waste a lot of my time on this, since I know how it is going to turn out anyway.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

New England Patriots -210 Moneyline (Bet $210 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

If I think they are going to cover a 3 1/2 points spread on the road, I damn sure am going to pick them to win outright.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos UNDER 43 1/2

Tough defenses and a backup quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks -2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Seattle has - by far - played the best of any team in the NFL this entire season.  The Rams were at that level at one point, and are amazing offensively (1st in Passing Offense, 1st in Scoring Offense, 2nd in Total Offense and 7th in Rushing Offense), which it will need in going against the toughest defense in the NFL to score against.

Seattle Seahawks -135 Moneyline (Bet $135 to win $100) v. Los Angeles Rams

Just like in the early game, if I think they are going to cover the spread, I should pick them to win outright.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

The Bo Nix injury at least made it so I don't have to even think about this choice.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

I am hoping for at least one really good, fun, close game this weekend - I hope it is this one.

Last Week Record: 1-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-2

Playoff Record: 13-17 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-3

Year-to-Date Record: 139-157-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-15

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1440)

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($828.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,928.20)

NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

THREE-QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)

NFL Mid-Season Review

So the NFL has reached its mid-season.  Nine of the eighteen weeks are complete, and each team has played at least 8 games, and some 9, and 8 1/2 games is halfway through the season.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season, with each team's surprise of the year.  The parenthetical at the end of season rankings was that team's position in the quarter-season review. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-2) This team was 5-0 during the second quarter of the season (and has won 6 games in a row to push to the top of the division.  Although I fully expect the Bills to end up here at the end of the year, New England is a strong contender for the playoffs,  The big surprise is that this team is 8th in scoring without a significant contribution from Trayveon Henderson, who, although the team's leading rusher with 283 yards, has only 13 more rushing yards than Drake Maye.

Buffalo Bills (6-2) A two-game losing streak - to New England and Atlanta - going into their bye dismantled what looked like an AFC juggernaut.  Their biggest surprise is that this team is middle-of-the-pack in passing offense (14th).  

Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins are 2-7 and sit in third place.  The biggest surprise is that they are not in last.

New York Jets (1-7)

Awful.  The biggest surprise is that they have not started trading veterans (Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams) yet.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Mike Tomlin must be that good of a coach (that we knew), but this is his best job yet.  That is because the surprise is that the Steelers are in first place while being ranked 30th in offense and defense.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Is this the scariest 3-5 team in NFL history?  injuries hurt, but the biggest surprise is how poor this defense is (27th overall).

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

The Joe Burrow injury is devastating.  Surprise is that Joe Flacco is making this team exciting.

Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Among the worst teams in the league, even with the second-best defense in the NFL.  That should have accounted for 1 or 2 more wins.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

They have played exceptionally well this year.  And are just a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers away from being 8-1.  Jonathan Taylor's success isn't a surprise, so his candidacy for MVP is understandable, but Daniel Jones being a top candidate?  Wow.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

A 2-2 quarter has flattened out the Jaguars curve, but Jacksonville is currently in playoff position if the season ended today.  The biggest surprise?  A virtually non-existent Brian Thomas, Jr. who has 30 receptions, only 5 more than Parker Washington.

 

Houston Texans (3-5)

Still one of the most disappointing teams in the whole league.  Biggest surprise - Woody Marks.  Not that he is surprising with his play, but the surprise is that the Texans have had to resort to Woody Marks.

Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Well, the are no longer winless!  The surprise is Chimere Dike, who is developing into a solid wide receiver, and is already one of the best kick returners in the NFL.  He has almost 350 more yards in kickoff returns than the next highest returner, and has the highest per return average as a punt returner.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Broncos went 5-0 in the second quarter, and are solidifying themselves as a Super Bowl candidate.  The surprise, they are doing this with only the 14th-best total offense in the NFL.  If this offense actually gets on track, watch out.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Oh what could've been with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.  The surprise is that they are the second-rated offense without those two bookends!

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

The surprise is that they are third in their division!!!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

No surprise that they are bad, the surprise is that they are only giving the ball to Ashton Jeanty 15 times a game.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

At the quarter mark, I noted the statistical fallacy of the Eagles being 4-0; and they went 2-2 the last quarter.   The biggest surprise?  That the Tush Push was ruled forward progress stopped instead of a fumble against the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)

This defense is really bad, which limits the ceiling on this team, yet they still are buyers at the deadline acquiring Logan Wilson from Cincinnati.  Surprise!!!

Washington Commanders (3-6)

A little regression from last year was to be expected, but not this much!  The surprise is the second injury to Jayden Daniels!!!  Perhaps let the running backs run?!

New York Giants (2-7)

Not a good team, but not as bad as their record.  The surprise is the excitement for Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo!!!  (Who am I kidding, we knew the over-exaggerated excitement for Skattebo was coming!).

.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Went 3-1 the last quarter, but they haven't looked particularly sharp.  A surprise loss to the Panthers could be the difference between a division title and traveling on wildcard weekend.

Detroit Lions (5-3)

This team can look dominating, or disappointing.  I still think they are the class of the division.  Too much firepower.

Chicago Bears (5-3)

Could the Bears be making a run for the playoffs?  The surprise is that despite a lot of negative press coming from Bears fans, his numbers are virtually identical to those of Baker Mayfield, who some people have as an outside-MVP candidate.

Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Their defeat of the Detroit Lions brings this division much closer from top-to-bottom.  The biggest surprise is even the Vikings don't know which JJ McCarthy will show up from quarter-to-quarter:  the one that plays essentially like a first-year starter, or the one that comes-from-behind in the fourth quarter.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

Tampa Bay is playing very consistently, and is 3-1 in each of the first two quarters.  The big surprise is that Richaad White is the leading rusher, despite not having a rusher with over 300 yards on the season.

Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The surprise is that Carolina is 5-4!!!

Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

The inverse of the Carolina Panthers, the surprise is that Atlanta is only 3-5even with the number 3 ranked defense!

New Orleans Saints (1-8)

The surprise is that Alvin Kamara is still on the Saints.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Playing very well.  This organization knows how to find QBs tossed away by other franchises (first Geno Smith, now Sam Darnold).  Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the entire NFL in receiving yards.  Surprising that it looks smart to have traded DK Metcalf!

Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Might actually be the best team in the division.  Surprising that Matt Stafford is an MVP front-runner!

San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

In playoff contention despite running through wide receivers like the Kardashians ... run through wide receivers!

Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

Surprised they haven't pulled the plug on the Kyler Murray Experiment yet.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (8)

2.  Denver Broncos (7-2) (14)

3.  New England Patriots (7-2) (16)

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-2) (1)

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (5)

6.  Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (9)

7.  Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (7)

8.  Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (2)

9.  Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (12)

10.  Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (3)

11.  San Francisco 49ers (6-3) (6)

12.  Detroit Lions (5-3) (4)

13.  Chicago Bears (5-3) (18)

14.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (10)

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (11)

16.  Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (13)

17.  Carolina Panthers (5-4) (29)

18.  Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (17)

19.  Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (22)

20.  Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (23)

21.  Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (19)

22.  Houston Texans (3-5) (24)

23.  Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (20)

24.  Washington Commanders (3-6) (15)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (21)

26.  Cleveland Browns (2-6) (28)

27.  Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (25)

28.  New York Giants (2-7) (26)

29.  Miami Dolphins (2-7) (27)

30.  New Orleans Saints (1-8) (31)

31.  New York Jets (1-8) (30)

32.  Tennessee Titans (1-8) (32)

Biggest Movers:  New England Patriots +13, Denver Broncos +12, Carolina Panthers, +12, Washington Commanders -9, Detroit Lions -8, Los Angeles Chargers -7

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive MVP - Byron Young, Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week

 

UGLY, UGLY, UGLY!!!  That is the only way to explain last week's results.  And this week is likely to be even worse with so many starters not even playing, some teams with incentives, and a lot with not.  Who even knows.  Prayers and luck this week, for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Baltimore Ravens

Yes, I know I should always pick the home team on a short week, but Pittsburgh needs a win to qualify for the playoffs - with some help - and Baltimore is sitting Lamar Jackson and other starters, and even playing Laquon Treadwell.

Indianapolis Colts +1 /2 v. Houston Texans

Both teams have something to play for, as the winner is in the playoffs, whereas the loser is not.  Can't take the visiting team on a short week in both games, and this game should be incredibly close.  Now if only Tyler Goodson holds onto the damn ball!!!  (Yes I know, it was thrown a bit behind him too.)

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

The winner of this game wins the NFC South at 8-8 IF Carolina manages to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so this game is important.  Sains have won 3 of their last 4, including defeating Tampa Bay last week; whereas the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4, including being destroyed by the Bears last week and a 9-7 loss to the hapless Panthers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Simply put, there is just too much at stake for Jacksonville, as a win gives them the AFC South title, whereas a loss puts them out of the playoffs entirely.  Jacksonville defense has been horrid this year  (22nd overall and 27th against the pass), but Tennessee's offense has been equally putrid (27th overall and 28th passing).  With Trevor Lawrence and Will Levis both hobbling, could it come down to C.J. Beatherd v. Ryan Tannehill?  I think Calvin Ridley finally shows up, and the Jaguars win, even as favorites on the road.

Detroit Lions -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Does Dan Campbell strike you as someone that lets his foot off the gas?  Yeah, me neither.

New England -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 at Carolina Panthers

This game is way too eeerily similar to the Jaguars situation.  Buccaneers win and their are the NFC South champions; lose and they go home.  Also playing the basement-dweller in their division.  I imagine that one of these two games is an upset, although I cannot pick either of them to happen.  Baker Mayfield rolls.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Jeff Driskel starting fot the Browns as Cleveland is stiting a number of its star players.  Jake Browning might be playing for a potential starting job on another team for next year, or at least a prime backup role on a squad with an oft-injured QB.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears are playing better than anybody, having won 5 of 7, and in those two losses had double-digit leads into the 4th quarter.  But, the Packers have the chance to make the playoffs.  And no matter how much ever Bears player and fan hates the Packers and would love to knock them out of the playoffs, Green Bay has much more incentive in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 at New York Giants

God do I hate betting this many road intra-divisional favorites, but the Eagles NEED this.  Not so much for the playoffs or the divisional title (although a win with help could give them the latter), but they just need to play a good ball game.

Arizona Cardinals + 3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has just been playing too many close games.  Arizona has the 6th best rushing team in the NFL and Seattle is 30th against the rush.  James Conner and Michael Carter for the cover.

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Los Angeles Rams

Nobody is playing, so who cares.  I gotta hope the 49ers depth is better than the Rams depth.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Denver Broncos

This Raiders team has been playing inspired football under Antonio Pierce.  If they just had a talented quarterback.  I wonder if they would trade this year's, 2025's and 2026's firsts, this year's second, and next year's third for the number one overall pick?  Or, instead of 2026's first, throw in a player?

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We will have a Blaine Gabbert sighting!!!  Although to be honest, Kansas City hasn't been amazing even with Patrick Mahomes.  I'll take Easton Stick sounds like I am in a craft drink lounge.

Dallas Cowboys -13 at Washington Commanders

Too many points, on the road, in an intradivsional game - except, the Cowboys need this to win the division, and the Commanders aren't playing for anything, except for a trade with the Bears if they like Caleb Williams.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Miami Dolphins

I might as well keep the road favorites train rolling.  The Bills are the third-betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, and if they lose this game they miss the playoffs.  The Dolphins are without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, not to mention their rush edges Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb.

Big Bet:

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.

Had to select a home team, and at least this will give me a reason to watch this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-108-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $920

Picks of the Week

A winning week according to the record, but the damn big bet gets me again.  I am 0-4 on the big bet this year.  UGH!  I have to catch a flight in a couple of hours, so no analysis for the most part, just picks.  Remember, first game today is in England, so it starts EARLY!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Since home teams are 0-3 so far on Thursday nights, why not just pick the best team?

New York Jets +2 1/2 "at" Atlanta Falcons (in London)

Take points in an awful game.

Washington Football Team +2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Green Bay Packers -23 at Cincinnati Bengals

Detroit Lions +10 at Minnesota Vikings

  

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Just a gut feeling.

Tennessee Titans -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 v. Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots -8 at Houston Texans

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. New York Giants

Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Indianapolis Colts

Big Bet

New England Patriots -8 at Houston Texans

So on short weeks, like Thursday nights, always pick the home team.  That hasn't works, so I switched it up this week and picked the road team.  For my big bet, always pick a team at home, and if you do pick a team on the road, never select a road favorite (this is for the big bet, not for all road favorites).  So, I am going to switch that up this week to break my big bet 0-4 streak. 

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  32-32

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($980) 

Picks of the Week

   

The season is getting tougher and tougher now as the casino actuaries have a much better feel on all of the teams so the lines are ridiculously tough.  Let's see if we can't motor through a winning week before the always tough Thanksgiving week.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I hated this line and I hated this pick.  Problem is, I would have hated it the other way also.  I will take that win.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Baltimore Ravens

Remember just recently when people were touting Tennessee as the best team in the NFL.  That was before losing 3 of 4, and that 1 win being against the Chicago Bears.  But, they are still tough and their losses have generally been close (except for punter problems against Indianapolis.)  I am not saying they win this game, but it should be close.  A tough, tough game for both teams.

Detroit Lions -1 at Carolina Panthers

This doesn't really count as picking a road favorite, but with Teddy Two Gloves possible still not even playing, I have to take Detroit.  Carolina has played some tough, close games without Christian McCaffrey, but without him and Bridgewater?  Probably too much.  And, I stand by this pick even if Bridgewater plays, because he is hurt more than Matthew Stafford.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has the 26th ranked rush defense, and Nick Chubb ran for 126 yards on only 19 carries in his return from injury last week.  Kareem Hunt added 104 yards on 19 carries.  This game could get ugly.

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh could honestly win this by 30.  But, they did play Green Bay close, and they are at home, so I will almost always take double digits.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Football-wise, the Falcons have the second-most explosive passing offense (with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup), and the Saints are in the middle of pass defense rankings (15th).  In reality, Taysom Hill brings a lot to the table, but not as an every down quarterback.  I think the Saints might turn to Jameis Winston at some point in this game, and if so, they are going to regret not giving him the first team snaps this week.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is having a remarkable rookie campaign, but the Football Team has the number 1 ranked passing defense in the entire NFL, holding opponents to an average of 194 yards.  That and the incredible story that is Alex Smith (coming soon on an ESPN 30 for 30 AND Disney+ movie near you).  (Well, not technically yet, but it is bound to happen, right?)

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This, in an ordinary year, would be an easy pick for me - and I would take Denver.   Denver is at home in the mile high air, has an adequate defense, and has shocked the likes of New England at home this season.  But, Denver doesn't yet know if Drew Lock or Brett Rypien is quarterbacking today, and Miami has been on a run since Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has started (even though his play has been OK to good, not great), and this team is playing inspired football.  Give me the Dolphins.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Jets

Although 0-9, the Jets have played some close, tough games ... AT HOME.  Unfortunately, this game is on the road, where the Jets have lost by 10, 29, 24 and 26.  That and the Chargers have risen to 7th in the NFL in passing offense, (3rd since Justin Herbert took over), and the Jets are 29th in pass defense.  The fact that this is a 13 point spread astounds me.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has played remarkable at times, and no more impressive than last week's 34-17 defeat of Tennessee on the road.  But, Ryan Tannehill, for all he has accomplished in Nashville, is not Aaron Rodgers.  And, more importantly JK Scott is much better at punting than the revolving door at the Titans team facility.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets Allen Lazard back as well.  And, I get points!!!  I'll take them.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Every week has that one game that surprises everybody, right?  So I think this one is it, and I will pick against my instincts.  Yes the Minnesota Vikings and their running game with Dalvin Cook has been amazing.  But, the Chicago Bears showed a blue print that can keep Cook in check.  However, the Cowboys' defense is certainly NOT the Bears' defense.  Deciding factors?  Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday night, and the Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers incredibly tough.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, 7 points is a big number for a road favorite in an intradivisional game, especially when the home underdog already defeated the road favorite earlier this year.  But, that should be an incentive for the road favorite, especially when the Raiders' defense - well, team really - is ravaged by Covid.  At the beginning of the week 8 of 11 defensive starters were on the Covid list.  Who knows how many will be ready to play?

Los Angeles Rams +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly am not sure which way to pick this game, but the Rams' performace last week against Seattle was great.  I will take the points here, since in my mind this shoul dbe a 2 1/2 to 3 points spread.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

OK - so I hate picking road teams as my big bet, but my first choice was originally the Browns over Philadelphia.  But, they burnt me last week as my Big Bet, so I am not picking them twice in a row.  My other choices were Miami over Denver and Green Bay over Indianapolis, and they were both road teams as well, and Indianapolis has a phenomenal defense.  So, Belichick it is.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  78-65-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1205

Picks of the Week

Finally a great week to stop the beginning of the season slide.  I would take going 11-5 every week, and I do mean every week.  But we can't this week because the byes start, so there are less games, making each game more important.  Which sucks because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thought Aaron Rodgers was going to throw that interception at the end of Thursday's game.  Puts me in a 0-1 hole.  Oh well, let's see how we do on Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Home team, short week.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams are surprisingly good defensively (Tennessee 6th and Atlanta 7th in Total defense), so I will take the points, especially if those points are going to the team that has looked marginally better than the other this season.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cleveland Browns
In the battle of the Cleveland Browns franchises, the old franchise has looked awesome this season, and the new franchise has looked, well, like the Browns.  Baltimore's defense is second against the run, meaning they can neutralize Nick Chubb, while offensively control the ball as the number 1 rushing club in the NFL.  Gimme the Ravens.

New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Julian Edelman has made the trip to Buffalo and although Buffalo has looked great in wins against bottom dwellers Jets, Giants and Bengals, not even a resurgent Frank Gore and the NFL's 5th best rushing offense will be happy to handle the league's best defense (#1 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, third down percentage and scoring defense).

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Detroit Lions
Yes, this is my third straight road favorite, but the undefeated Lions should get exposed against Kansas City as the explosive Chiefs and Pat Mahomes should feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense.

Houston Texans -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Houston has won two straight since their opening game loss to New Orleans, whereas the Panthers are coming off a solid win against Arizona after losing two straight.  Houston will keep there streak going as the Panthers will not be able to stop the Texans' rushing game.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I was initially going to pick Indianapolis before seeing the spread.  I really don't like this line, but I still feel compelled to give the points because Oakland is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, but also Indianapolis has looked really good this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -14 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Yes west coast team travelling east playing in an early game, but another rule trumps:  I am picking against the Dolphins until they show me they can cover any spread.  Miami is 0-3 so far against-the-spread this year, even though two of those spreads were over 20 points.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Racists
Ugh/  Please don't make me watch this game.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 at Chicago Bears
If last week's Bears offense is any indication of improvement (albeit against the Racists), this could be a really, REALLY good game.  I am gonna take the points in an intra-divisional game (and secretly hope that I lose this bet).

Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a gut feel, as the Seahawks have been up-and-down this year, playing poorly against bad teams (in wins against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and good against good teams (a loss to New Orleans).  None of their games have been decided by more than 6 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The undefeated Rams have been largely stagnant on offense this season (16th overall and 23rd in passing), whereas the Buccaneers have been surprisingly good on defense (6th in rush defense, 14th overall and 10th in 3rd down percentage).  Rams win, but Buccaneers keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville has seemed to play better given the Jalen Ramsey distraction, and Gardner Minshew II has a passer rating of 110.6 (as compared to Flacco's 87.4).  The Broncos - despite having Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, have 0 sacks this season.  If they do not put pressure on Minshew, he could be in line for a big road victory,so I will take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
This is the game the Cowboys should win if they want to be seriously considered as a Super Bowl contender.  Yes on the road, but an overall better roster given that Drew Brees is out.  Offensively Dallas is great AND balanced (#1 in third down conversions, #3 rush and total offense, #4 pass and scoring offense), whereas the Saints defense is the exact opposite (#20 3rd down conversions, #25 rush defense, #26 scoring defense, #28 total defense and #29 pass defense).

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I may not even watch this game.  Give me the points because Cincinnati is 3rd in pass offense and Pittsburgh is 30th in pass defense.  Ugh - horrible Monday night game.  At least it is likely one of these teams wins its first game of the season.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Patriots keep rolling and the Bills show they are not quite ready for prime time - but getting closer.

Last Week's Record:  11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  22-26
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $385
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($525)

Picks of the Week

HOORAY! The NFL is officially back with its first full slate of games, and nobody is happier than I am.  Since I watched absolutely zero of the pre-season, other than all the news reports of the Antonio Brown drama, I feel that I am in a perfect position to start the season with a bang.  Whether that is good or bad, who knows.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Chicago Bears
This happened Thursday, but I told my friends my pick before game time. Aaron Rodgers just has the bears number.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
West coast teams travelling west rarely cover the spread when they play the early games.  Add to that, it is also hard to cover as a road favorite.  I imagine that most people I know will take the Rams here, but I will take the points.

Cleveland Browns -5 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
This pick is not about me coronating the Browns too early after "winning the offseason".  This is more about me thinking that Tennessee is going to be really bad this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Jacksonville should still have a great defense, and although Kansas City's offense seemed to be unstoppable last year, can a team with a Super Bowl-winning quarterback at least keep possession long enough with Leonard Fournette to keep this game close?  I say yes.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Baltimore Ravens
Don't get me wrong, the Dolphins are going to be horrible this year. But, without seeing how Baltimore is going to play, I don't like them favored by 7 on the road.  Especially when Fitzpatrick can throw a 43 yard touchdown pass with 41 seconds left to back-door cover.

Atlanta Falcons +4 at Minnesota Vikings
I have to pick some road teams, right?  I have no idea where either of these teams are going to end up.  I feel like they could both either wind up in the playoffs, or both disappoint terribly.  So, give me the points.

New York Jets -3 v. Buffalo Bills
Le'Veon Bell should be fresh right.

Washington Racitsts +10 at Philadelphia Eagles
Over the season, the Eagles should easily out-distance the Racists.  That being said, ten points is a lot of points in an intra-divisional game.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
Which team went through the most turmoil during the preseason?  I am going to say the Colts, and pick the Chargers.

Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Count the Bengals be looking for Tagavailoa to replace Andy Dalton?

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
There has to be one game where I go against the rules and take a visiting favorite, right?

New York Giants +7 at Dallas Cowboys
Saquon Barkley controls the ball to help keep this close.  Every Cowboys fan is hoping Zeke is ready to play.  Is he?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 v. San Francisco 49ers
I have no idea why I think this.

New England Patriots -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has never won in Foxboro.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. Houston Texans
New Orleans seems to thrive on big prime time games.  Can J.J. Watt be as effective without Jadeveon Clowney on the other side?

Denver Broncos -2 at Oakland Raiders 
Another road favorite, in an intradivisional game.  I don't like it, but I also don't like this Raiders squad.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben has never won in Foxboro.  I chalk this pick up to Belichick and Brady, more than anything else, but also a healthy helping of Sony Michel.

Last Week's Record: 0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Picks of the Week

Bets were horrible last week, but thank god for that crazy non-pass interference call, as my casino returned all Saints bets.  Saved me from a horrendously awful week. I will have to do some prop bets to try to catch up for the year however.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Gladys Knight National Anthem OVER 1:45
We can bet that Atlanta-native Gladys is going to want to really put this one out there for all to remember, especially given all of the pressure for her not to sing over solidarity with Colin Kaepernick.

Tom Brady OVER 350 yards passing +$229 (Bet $100 to win $229)
Brady has thrown for 900 yards each of the last two Super Bowls, and the act that the Patriots have been running with Sony Michel gives this bet extra value.  But as great as Michel has been, Belichick is going to rely on Brady when it comes down to a win or lose scenario.

Touchdowns in the first half OVER 1 1/2
As you might recall, last year the teams scored 4 touchdowns in the first half.

Sony Michel Rushing Yards - OVER 80.5
He has gone for over 100 in 3 of his last four games, including in both playoff games. Despite the names on the Rams defensive line, they have not been sufficient run stoppers this year.

Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards OVER 70.5
With the Rams using a 2-headed backfield of Gurley and C.J. |Anderson, I expect Belichick will try to take away Los Angeles's running game.  Although Stephon Gilmore has been amazing this year, Cooks could easily get over 70+ yards, whether the Rams are effective offensively or not.

Roughing the passer penalty will Occur +$105 (Bet $100 to win ($105)
It is called the Tom Brady rule, after all.

Total Touchdowns for the Patriots OVER 2 1/2

Total Touchdowns for the Rams OVER 2/12
Should be some good scoring in this game.

Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I just feel that the Patriots are better.  Even though C.J. Anderson has been a revelation, the fact that it seems like the Rams game plan no longer focuses on Todd Gurley might actually hurt them.  Plus, Belichick knows a bit about defense and is likely to concentrate on shutting the running game down anyway.  I bet against the Patriots two years ago when Atlanta choked away the win.  I bet against them last year when I just thought Philadelphia was better.  I do think New Orleans is better, but they are not here. So, the Pats rarely lose when they are better, and often win when they are not.

New England Patriots -130 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $130 to win $100)
If I think the Patriots are going to cover the spread, then I definitely think they are going to win outright.  Plus, I think only one Super Bowl has been decided by under 3 points, if I can believe the sports site I was reading earlier.  Rams just are not ready yet.

New England Patriots v. Los Angeles Rams OVER 55 1/2
I foresee lots of points being scored in this one.

Big Bet
Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?

Right?

Last Week's Record:  1-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  13-136-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($110)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1620)