Worst week of the year, and that is all I am going to say. OUCH! (Well, besides "OUCH").
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I think the Rams are the best team in football right now, and Puka Nacua might be the most underrated star in the game. BUT, picking the Rams would violate two betting rules: (1) Home team on a short week; and (2) Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle. So, I can live with picking the team I think is the second-best team in the NFL right now (at least until Sam Darnold gets into the playoffs).
Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I hate, nay, I HATE!!!, this pick. But see the above analysis. I guess I will just hope that the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL can keep this game close. UGH!
Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Another short week, home, intra-divisional underdog. Only this time the "favorites" were about 4 feet from losing to the Bears two weeks ago and since have lost their best player (Micah Parsons) and most exciting receiver (Christian Watson) to injury.
Buffalo Bills -10 at Cleveland Browns
Double digits are a lot of points to give to a team with the 3rd best defense (and best against the pass) in the NFL. But last week was a crucial turning point for the Bills in their comeback win against New England, and the Browns, who got blown out by the Bears. Last week may have cemented each teams' fate for the rest of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers +1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
I make this pick solely on the fact that I think Justin Herbert has to be healed a bit from his hand surgery by now (as he has not looked great the past two weeks playing with an injury), and based on the fact that Dallas is in the central time zone not the eastern time zone.
New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets
New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets. New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.
Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle, with first place in the NFC South on the line!
Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at New York Giants
If we get last week's Minnesota Vikings, this game will not even be close.
Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
This game will cement Travis Kelce's retirement.
Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins gave a potential playoff berth a helluva run, but that ended Monday night in dramatic fashion, and this team will likely lose its spirit as well. Plus, this is a short week for them, and Joe Burrow might be auditioning for trade value.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos
I am not sold that last week was the breakout that we have all been waiting for from the Broncos offense, and these two teams are remarkably even statistically (Jaguars 17th in Total Offense and 9th in Total Defense; Broncos 15th in Total Offense and 8th in Total Defense). So, I'll take the points.
Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Falcons are just better, for whatever that means. Although, Jacoby Brissett has had a great run as QB1. If the Cardinals are smart, they are re-thinking Kyler Murray.
Houston Texans -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Kenny Pickett is very aptly named.
Detroit Lions -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Is it time for Detroit to make a push for the playoffs - and man will they be dangerous should they make it - or is it time for Pittsburgh to end a team's playoff possibilities two weeks in a run? I lean to the former, and given that Pittsburgh is on a short week, I'll take the Lions offense, which is way better than what Pittsburgh saw last week.
New England Patriots +3 at Baltimore Ravens
I fully expect the Patriots to bounce-back after last week's crushing comeback loss to the Bills. Although the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt (as they are only 1 game behind the Steelers), this might not be the week they catch up. The last week against Pittsburgh does loom large, though, if the Ravens can keep pace with Pittsburgh). So, given the implications, Baltimore may win, but New England keeps it VERY close.
San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts
Philip Rivers' comeback is a very sweet story, but he really didn't play that great. Definitely not sure that the Colts' offense can keep up with San Francisco, which has scored under 26 only once since November 2.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets
New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets. New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.
Well, since New Orleans has screwed me over 2 weeks ago picking against them, let's see if the former trend continues (screwing me over) or the latter (winning two in a row) becomes a streak.
Last Week Record: 5-11
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 104-118-2
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-11
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($975)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,895)
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