OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!! Hooray for that, at least. Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under. Also, I might have two Big Bets. Let's see how that goes!
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game. But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week. This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.
Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther
The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense. Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage. Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2
The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.
Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand). There is no reason to think that this one will be any different. Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play. And, it is a short week.
Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears
But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick. Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer. That being said, I hope I lose this one.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2
I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score. So I'll take the over.
Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL. Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.
Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars
If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line. It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2
Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).
San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread. I also think they are the better team. They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense. They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.
San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles
A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2
A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.
Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots
Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night! These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th). Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.
Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots
If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline. It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2
Two tough, stubborn defenses.
Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG. The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11. And that defense!!! They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense. Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.
Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175. That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers. An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz). Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2
Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread. I also think they are the better team. They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense. They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.
San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year. I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2
Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).
I mean, this has to hit, right?
Last Week Record: 4-12
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)
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