Finally, a week like it should be. Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well. Typing that is likely my kiss of death.
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week. Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.
Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears
Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me. Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.
New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders
Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit. Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.
Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100. If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game. The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash. Eagles by 3 touchdowns.
Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar. Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.
Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?
New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak. Now the Patriots are getting points at home. Yes, please!
Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets
This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL. The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.
Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week. And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal. If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.
Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team. I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.
Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.
Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
This Broncos offense stinks. Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive. Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.
New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?
Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly. In that case, I will take points.
Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play. I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.
Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs. I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then. The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar. Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.
In Joe Burrow we trust!!! He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back. Hit, some. Love getting points at home, though!
Last Week Record: 8-5-1
Last Week Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10
Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920)
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