Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther

The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2

The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears

But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2

I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.

 

Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles

A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2

A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots

If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2

Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2

Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

NFL REGULAR SEASON REVIEW

 

The NFL regular season is over, and the playoffs will soon (5 days) be upon us.  So before that begins, let us take a look at the regular season as a whole, and what each team needs to address in the offseason. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (14-3) Took control of this division after a week 5 win at Buffalo, and never looked back.  This team could use a Wide Receiver/Tight End playmaker to take it over the top, given Stefon Diggs' volatility and legal problems.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) The Bills went 3-1 in the last quarter, but still just don't look sharp.  A big-play receiver and a strong run-stuffing DT should be the focus in the offseason.

Miami Dolphins (7-10) Quinn Ewers looks OK and could be serviceable - maybe more - as a starter.  The Dolphins need to get rid of Tua's contract and focus on finding strong, stable offensive lineman.

New York Jets (3-14)

Horrible year for the Jets.  They need a foundational quarterback above everything else.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

The Steelers went 3-1 to cement the AFC North title on the last day.  Despite making the playoffs, they need to focus on a lot; wide receiver to run with D.K. Metcalf, offensive lineman to improve the running game, and an improved secondary.

Baltimore Ravens (8-9)

Injuries to Lamar Jackson hurt this season.  That and a horrible secondary led to their demise.  They should focus on a veteran corner, and a young, talented corner in the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)

Another team just crippled by injuries.  They need to focus on a big defensive tackle and linebackers.

Cleveland Browns (5-12)

Cleveland had a very good 2024 draft:  Mason Graham DT, Carson Schewsinger (LB), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Harold Fannin, Jr. (TE), and Shadeur Sanders (QB) all hit.  They primarily need to focus on obtaining a playmaker for Sanders at WR, and protection as well in the OL.

 

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

What a year.  Might focus on a big-play corner or pass rusher.

Houston Texans (12-5)

They have won 9 in a row!!!  Certainly clicking at the right time.  Team should focus on a dynamic running back, and nobody would be mad at offensive linemen.

Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

Lost seven straight to end the season without Daniel Jones.  Offseason focus should be on bolstering the secondary and another pass rusher to complement Laiatu Latu.

Tennessee Titans (3-14)

The focus should be on playmakers and protection for Cam Ward, who looks legitimate despite being on a last-place team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (14-3)

Finished the year out 3-1 to secure home-field advantage in the AFC.  They need to focus on a dynamic running back, and a playmaker at receiver.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers remain dangerous as they enter the playoffs.  They are solid in every phase, so they just need to focus on adding talent at any position that is available to them.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

The Chiefs finished 0-4 without Patrick Mahomes due to injury.  They need to focus on an every-down running back, a possession receiver with hands to compliment Rashee Rice, and replacement for Travis Kelce!(?)

Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

Earning the number 1 pick in the draft gifts them Fernando Mendoza.  They need to focus on a coaching staff that can unlock his best qualities and develop him into a star, and protect him with lineman.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

Not the same team as last year, but they could still make a run.  The team needs to focus on the passing game.  They have the players, so maybe a new passing-game coordinator, or offensive coordinator?

Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)

This team has more talent than their record.  After waiving Trevon Diggs, they really need to focus on the secondary, at corner and safety.  A pass rusher wouldn't hurt either.

Washington Commanders (5-12)

A healthy Jayden Daniels would mean the world to this team.  Offseason focus should be on a complimentary playmaker to Terry McLaurin, and improvement to the secondary.

New York Giants (4-13)

The first overall pick would have been nice, but that didn't happen.  They need a big-time playmaking wide receiver, some receiver depth, and a run-stuffing defensive tackle and linebacker on the defensive side of the ball.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (11-6)

This season has exceeded expectations for the Bears, and despite obvious holes in the team, they do not quit.  Their focus in the offseason should be on a top pass rusher to compliment Montez Sweat, and linebacker talent (either inside or for coverage - whichever help is available).

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)

Lost a few down the stretch -  including to the Bears - to gift the Bears the division. Still really talented, the team should focus on a true number 1 receiver (I feel they have a bunch of good, not great receivers), and perhaps some linebacking help.

Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

An up-and-down year for the Vikings.  They need to focus on whether J.J. McCarthy is really it.  If so, figure out what works for him because they have the playmakers.  Perhaps some offensive lineman and interior defenders to round-out the roster.

Detroit Lions (9-8)

Disappointing season for the Lions.  They need to focus on acquiring a secondary pass rusher, and maybe some secondary help.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers (8-9)

Snuck into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.  They need a lot of help.  With some talent here, they should focus on loading up on both lines.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

Missed the playoffs despite defeating Carolina in the last week of the season.  They need to focus on secondary help as well as some young blood on offense.  A pass rusher would help too.

Atlanta Falcons (8-9)

The dreaded loser in the three-team tiebreaker.  Running game is sound, passing game decent when Michael Penix and Drake London are healthy.  Some strong lineman (offensive and defensive) should be the focus this offseason.

New Orleans Saints (6-11)

The Saints went 3-1 in the last quarter.  They need to focus on a young Alvin Kamara replacement to grow with Tyler Shough, and lineman to pave the way for that running back (and protect Shough).

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The best team in the league.  Very solid in all phases.  They should maybe focus on a block/catch TE and a pass rusher.

Los Angeles Rams (11-3)

Another really solid team, finishing off a solid year.  Maybe a shut-down corner or a pass rusher.

San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Easily the best division in football.  San Francisco should focus on secondary help and linebacker help/depth.  Fred Warner is not going to last forever.

Arizona Cardinals (3-14)

Winless in the last quarter.  They need literally everything.  They should focus on deciding whether Kyler Murray is their long-term QB first, and then just grab as much talent as possible anywhere on the field.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the three-quarter point)

1.  Seattle Seahawks 14-3 (4)

2.  San Francisco 49ers 14-3 (7)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 14-3 (3)

4.  New England Patriots 14-3 (1)

5.  Denver Broncos 14-3 (2)

6.  Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 (10)

7.  Houston Texans 12-5 (12)

8.  Buffalo Bills 12-5 (9)

9.  Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 (6)

10.  Chicago Bears 11-6 (8)

11.  Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 (13)

12.  Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (16)

13.  Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 (5)

14.  Detroit Lions 9-8 (11)

15.  Minnesota Vikings 9-8 (22)

16.  Baltimore Ravens 8-9 (21)

17. Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (24)

18.  Carolina Panthers 8-9 (17)

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 (15)

20.  Indianapolis Colts 8-9 (14)

21.  Dallas Cowboys 7-9-1 (18)

22.  Miami Dolphins 7-10 (20)

23.  New Orleans Saints 6-11 (29)

24.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 (19)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 (23)

26.  Cleveland Browns 5-12 (25)

27.  Washington Commanders 5-12 (26)

28.  New York Giants 4-13 (31)

29.  Tennessee Titans 3-14 (30)

30.  Arizona Cardinals 3-14 (28)

31.  Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 (32)

32.  New York Jets 3-14 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Minnesota Vikings +7, Atlanta Falcons +7, New Orleans Saints +6, Green Bay Packers -8, Indianapolis Colts -6, Baltimore Ravens -5, Kansas City Chiefs -5

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Drake Maye is right there

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns - Not even close

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers Tyler Shough closing FAST!

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns - Pearce and Emmanwori next

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars - And this isn't even close, but Vrabel will win

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts - Who knew he was this good or important?

Comeback Player of the Year - Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers - Back to Form

And yes, I know the NFL does the MVP, then Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.  I don't care.

NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

THREE-QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)

Picks of the Week

 

As expected, last week was a cluster - A1 certified cluster.  But what to expect when we don't even know who will be playing or for how long half the time.  I will say BOOO to the Dallas Cowboys for playing Trey Lance the entire game, keeping Cooper Rush from hitting a $250,000 bonus, and a big kudos to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who threw one last pass to Mike Evans securing 1,000 yards on the season, and a $3 million bonus.  

It's playoff time, so hopefully it is time to use everything we learned this year to make some real money!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 at Houston Texans

The Chargers defense is the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL.  Houston's defense is no slouch either, finishing 6th against the pass and 7th in total defense.  But, J.K. Dobbins is expected to return, and that can only open up things for a Justin Herbert-led passing offense that has discovered a true weapon in Ladd McConkey.

Los Angeles Chargers -155 at Houston Texans (Bet $155 to win $100)

If I am willing to pick the Chargers against the spread on the road, then -155 is not enough of a change to warrant a hedge bet and taking Houston.  If it was -180 or something, then I might have thought about it, but not for this.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans OVER 41 1/2

The defenses are too good for this to be a shootout, but this line is low  Simething like 27-20 or 27-17 seems right to me.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This line may seem really high for an intradivisional game in which the teams split during the regular season, but the Steelers that defeated the Ravens 18-16 in week 11 are not the same Steelers that Baltimore decimated 34-17 in Week16, or even the ones that are playing now.

Baltimore Ravens -550 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $550 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 1st against the run, which should minimize what little strength on offense the Steelers have (11th in rushing/27th in passing).  The Ravens on offense are the best rushing team in the NFL averaging over 187 yards per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 1/2

Baltimore will have over 30 themselves behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.  Yes, losing Zay Flowers hurts, but that just means an increase in two-tight end sets with Isaiah Likely joining Mark Andrews, and that is dangerous to defenses, especially in short yardage situations.

Buffalo Bills -8 v. Denver Broncos

I have seen this line as high as 9 1/2, so if I can take 8 I will.  This is the end of a Cinderella-like run for Denver this year, and although their future could be bright with some more offensive weapons, this isn't their year.

Buffalo Bills -425 v. Denver Broncos (Bet $425 to win $100)

Buffalo is just better, and they will win this game.  So, have to take them in the money line - no doubts.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills OVER 47 1/2

Not including last week's game where Buffalo rested everybody, they have scored on their own 40, 24, 48, 42, 35, 30,30,30 31, and 34 in their previous 10 games.  Sure looks like a good over bet to me as all we will need is Denver to score SOMETHING.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Philadelphia Eagles -240 (Bet $240 to win $100)

I hate not having some money line to hedge my bets against the favorites (and yes, the Chargers are the favorites even though they are the lower seeded team and playing on the road), but I feel that Philly is going to slam Green Bay, so I have to take it.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2

Both teams defenses shoould keep this really low scoring, and I do not expect Green bay to contribute much toward the total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Washington Commanders

Great season by Washington, led by the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (it should be Brock Bowers, but I digress).  Baker Mayfield has this Bucs offense humming along, as they are 4th in scoring, 4th in rushing, 3rd in passing, 3rd in total offense and 1st in 3rd down percentage.  Compare that to Washingon's defense which is 3rd against the pass, but 30th against the run, 11th in total defense, and 18th in scoring defense.  Daniels will make plays to keep the Commanders in the game, but Tampa should be too much.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -160 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $160 to win $100)

This might ordinarily be one of the games where I would hedge a bet, but the spread just isn't big enough to do that.  Bucky Irving will have a big game, keeping the Commanders offense off the field.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 50 1/2

If you can't take the under on the highest O/U on the board, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

In a game moved to Glendale because of the massive fires in Los Angeles and Los Angeles County, you would think the Rams would lose their home-field advantage, which they earned by winning their division - even though Minnesota had a better record.  But, everybody is going to be cheering for the Rams, securing their "home field".  Also, they have a lot to play for on behalf of all of LA (as do the Chargers).  I look a lot at the Week 8 game in which the Rams won 30-20 in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp's first games back from injury.

Los Angeles Rams +125 v. Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $125)

If I think an underdog is going to win outright, then I absolutely am going to take them for the money line.  

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Big Bets:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Green Bay is done for this year.  The Bears lost last week was a symptom that this is not the same team as earlier in the season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Lots of offensive firepower is hard to shut down for 60 minutes.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-128-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-9

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($815)

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVI

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Cincinnati Bengals

I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl (over Kansas City) since the beginning of the year.  Their offense is settling nicely with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel, meaning the Bengals cannot just sit back and double Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr., or just rush Matthew Stafford.  Although, I have lost a lot betting against Cincinnati these playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49

Both teams average 27.1 points per game (tied for 7th), and both give up around 22.  Should be a good scoring game, so I'll take the over.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Evan McPherson OVER 7 1/2 points

If I think he is going to kick at least two field goals, I have to go with over 7 1/2 points.

Cooper Kupp's longest reception OVER 29 1/2 yards

He leads the NLF in targets, meaning he is likely going to be thrown to a lot, and even if he does not get open deep, 846 of his 1,947 regular season yards after the catch. meaning he could take a 15 yarder for over 30.

National Anthem UNDER 2:00 minutes

My standard bet, although last year the line was 2:10.

Matthew Stafford OVER 1 1/2 Passing Touchdowns

Stafford has thrown at least 2 TDs in all but one game dating back to mid-November, and now with Odell Beckham, Jr. being comfortable in this offense, there are more weapons for Stafford to survey against Cincinnati's 26th ranked passing defense.

Los Angeles Rams -$135 OVER 3 1/2 Sacks (Bet $135 to win $100)

The Rams could challenge the Super Bowl record for most sacks in a game - which is currently 7.

Aaron Donald -125 OVER 1.0 Sacks (Bet $125 to win $100)

See above.

Von Miller -200 OVER .5 Sacks (Bet $200 to win $100)

See above.

Cam Akers -$120 Receiving Yards OVER 16 1/2 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Akers is going to be a highly utilized weapon today.

Joe Mixon $-125 OVER 24 1/2 receiving yards (Bet 125 to win $100)

Like Akers, Mixon's value is just being open in space, including wheel routes.  He has gone over this number in each of his last 5 games, and could be utilized to minimize the Rams' pass rush.

Big Bets

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Not as confident giving up points, but I just think the Rams are the much better overall team.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Two field goals seems easily doable.

Last Week's Record:  10-8

Playoff Record:  20-15-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-2

Year-to-Date Record:  163-144-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($304)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($646)  

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk.  I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games.  Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A few things concern me with this pick.  First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4.  That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions.  Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass.  So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field.  But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks.  I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot.  And, Derrick Henry returns.  Plus, he is fresh.  Tennessee wins.

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2

With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th).  This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle.  This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)

Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)

Aaron Rodgers continues his F  You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers.  The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship.  A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans.  Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2

Their week 3 battle ended 30-28.  I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week.  Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough.  Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week.  And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)

Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2

I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now.  Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This should be a phenomenal game.  Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense).  But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.

Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)

Buffalo has a great chance to win this game.  I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low.  But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54

Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games.  This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.

Last Week's Record:  10-7-1

Playoff Record:  10-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoff Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-136-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  $334

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6) 

Picks of the Week

This is already a crazy week.  Three games postponed from their original times so that now we have double-headers on Monday AND Tuesday.  And with people dropping like flies out of the active lists for Covid, who even knows which players are going to be eligible.  But, that notwithstanding, since we have a game tonight, I will be making my picks for the entire weekend.  If something major causes a change, I will update, but planning on riding this one out.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Taking the away team on a short week?  Yes.  Giving points in a divisional rivalry game?  Yes.  Especially when that team cannot cover Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.  Good start to the week.

Indianapolis  Colts -2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

There aren't many teams hotter than the Indianapolis Colts right now, winners of 4 of their last 5, but New England is one of those teams, having won 7 straight.  The Colts, with Jonathan Taylor Thomas are second in the NFL in rushing, and the one kink in the Patriots' 3rd ranked defense is that rank only 18th in rushing defense.

Buffalo Bills -13 v. Carolina Panthers

Carolina is a mess, having not only lost 3 games in a row, but doing so while rotating quarterbacks, injuring Christian McCaffrey and losing to the Falcons.  Buffalo NEEDS this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Houston Texans

I am playing the firing of Urban Meyer is addition by subtraction here.  Plus, maybe James Robinson will get all the carries now.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Every bone in my body was telling me to pick Pittsburgh here, but for some reason I just cannot do it.

Detroit Lions +12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Unlike my Buffalo pick, where I am giving up lots of points because Buffalo needs that win, Detroit always plays tough and Arizona doesn't need this one.  Cardinals still win in a close one.  Plus Arizona is on a short week.

New York Jets +10 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are a mess due to Covid, and losing Jaylen Waddle for this game is huge!!!  However, the team was able to activate Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed from the Covid list, so they will have somebody besides Duke Johnson available.  Bet on a huge game by Mike Geisicki, though, but this game will be close.

Dallas Cowboys -10 at New York Giants

Given this wacky season, I'll give double digits in a divisional game only because the Giants are the 26th ranked defense in the NFL going against the NFL's best offense, and second-highest scoring team.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Denver Broncos

We will see if the Bengals want to make the playoffs or not.  They face a challenging Broncos defense, but they need to right the ship after two straight losses.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Atlanta Falcons

San Francisco is just that much better than Atlanta right now.

Green Bay Packers -7 at Baltimore Ravens

If Lamar Jackson cannot go, the Packers cover this spread easily.

Tampa Bay Buccanneers -11 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The quarterback situation in New Orleans is shaky at best, but without Sean Payton, they shouldn't have a chance.

Cleveland Browns -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are (rightfully pissed) at having to move this game to Monday.  That anger is likely going to be a distraction.  And, with Baker Mayfield out in Cleveland, we will see a whole ot of Nick Chubb, and the Raiders have the 26th best run defense in the NFL (and 31st in scoring defense).

Chicago Bears +6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Who needs coordinators?  Or, as the Bears have shown all year, who needs an actual coach?  (#Fire Matt Nagy).  Most of Minnesota's games are close, so that is how I am playing this pick.

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team

So, Gardner Minshew can actually throw, if he has to play again in place of Jalen Hurts.  Can we say the same thing about Kyle Shurmur?

Big Bet:

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The move to Tuesday keeps the Rams from playing on a short week.  Plus, the Seahawks' loss of Tyler Lockett to Covid is worse than the Rams' loss of Darrell Henderson.

Los Angeles' victory over Arizona last Monday night showed us what they can actually do as a football team, and should be just as scary to the NFC as Kansas City's 7-game win streak is to the AFC.

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  108-100

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($935) 

Picks of the Week

 

Worst week of the year.  Just horrible.  With a capital HOR!  Took away all my earnings from the year, and possibly puts me in the negative.  I won't know until I get to the bottom of this column and actually calculate it.  [Ed. Note - It did erase all my profits for the year.] Oh well.  Stretch run here we come.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Home team, short week.  Chargers with virtually no receivers.  Then Derek Carr gets hurt, then fumbles, then field goals instead of touchdowns and that's football.

Denver Broncos + 5 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Denver has been playing teams really close, winning by 5 at Carolina and by 6 at Kansas City in the last two games.  This game is a home game, on a short week in altitude.  Plus, Denver is a respectable 11th in third down percentage, and getting the defense off the field is important, especially in Denver.

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

  

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Let's not kid ourselves, I am taking whichever team is getting points in this clunker.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two weeks ago, I would have taken Houston in this game behind DeShaun Watson's remarkable season, figuring that the Texans lost by 6.  Now, the Texans are reeling, coming off a humbling at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  Houston's defense is 31st in total defense, 24th in passing defense, 31st in rushing defense, and 25th in scoring defense.  Jonathan Taylor to have a great game.

Detroit Lions +11 at Tennessee Titans

I know that Green Bay is a divisional rival of Detroit, and those games are always tough, but the Lions only lost by a touchdown to Green Bay.  I just think 11 points is too much.  Detroit 31-21.

Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who knew that Atlanta was going to play an important part in this year's playoff hunt, playing the Buccaneers twice in the last three games.  Tampa Bay is 21st in the passing defense and Atlanta is 6th in passing offense.  Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley keep Atlanta in this game.

Baltimore Ravens -13 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This spreak is difficulty, because the streaky Jaguars, despite losting 12 in a row after an opening week over the Indianapolis Colts (who would have guessed that at this point in the season), have had some close losses.  Not this week as it will be tough with the Jaguars and their 30th ranked rush defense take on the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.   Short week for Baltimore, so the spread is probably too high, but why not.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. New England Patriots

Miami always plays New England tough in Miami Gardens, even when a great disparity between the quality of the two teams existed.  This is a much different season, and Miami learned a lot about themselves in a tough loss to Kansas City.  Plus, Tuanigamnualepola Tagavailoa.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Washington Football Team

West coast team travelling east playing the early game, except Russel Wilson has flipped those stats covering about 80% of the time in that situation.  Make it 100% of the time with Dwayne Haskins starting.  I still love typng "Football Team".

Dallas Cowboys +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has had a strong season considering they lost all 41 starters to injury, 22 of them in the same game.  But, as the season has grinded along, they are just worn down.  I expect Dallas to capitalize on that.

Los Angeles Rams -17 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a ridiculous line in an NFL game, but the Jets have lost by 17 or more 7 times this year.  And, this bet makes this game actually exciting.  Well, that and I have Jared Goff in the semi-finals of one of my fantasy leagues.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Did Arizona right the ship last week by beating the Giants after 3 consecutive losses?  Or, is Jalen Hurts the remedy that Philadelphia needed to start to scare some teams and make a playoff run?  I think Arizona is playing the NFC East at just the right time.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints desperately need Drew Brees back, as Taysom Hill is limited.  I think the Saints wished they played Jameis Winston a bit more during Brees' absence.  As it stands, they are going to lose their playoff bye.

New York Giants +6 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland is by far the better team in this game.  But, now hear me out, the Giants are 7th in the NFL in rushing defense, and might be able to slow down the Browns vaunted running game, which is third in the NFL.  That, and Cleveland has to experience a bit of a letdown after their stunningly close loss to Baltimore on Monday night (and this is a short week for Cleveland).

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen.  Did I say Brandon Allen?  I meant Ryan Linley!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

I really, really wanted to select Seattle here, but it is always better to take a home team.  In Aaron Rodgers we trust.  In Aaron Rodgers we hate, but we trust.

Last Week's Record:  4-12

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  109-95-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($985)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760