An actual winning week, but once again I am undone by the damn Big Bet, which I lost --- AGAIN! I just cannot figure this season out.
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Buffalo Bills -6 at Houston Texans
I am supposed to pick the home team on a short week, I know. And Houston does have the best defense in the NFL. But Buffalo scored 44 on a very good Tampa Bay defense last week, and I just cannot pick Davis Mills in a prime time game.
Chicago Bears -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Both teams defenses give up A LOT of yards. The Bears are 27th and the Steelers 28th in Total Defense. The difference is the Bears are 4th in Total Offense, AND they are at home.
Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay's defense is 5th in Total Defense and 7th in scoring defense, and J.J. McCarthy has proven himself to be very pedestrian with a 61.7 QB Rating.
Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Although Kansas City needs to play desperate in this game just to have a chance at making the playoffs, and desperation and talent are a dangerous combination, Indianapolis is just a better team, especially offensively. KC may win, but I am going to take the points, as the Colts score enough to cover - at least.
New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati has the worst defense in the NFL (last in Total Defense, last in rushing defense, last in scoring defense and 31st in passing defense). That is just too much to overcome while J'Marr Chase is suspended and Joe Flacco - although efficient - is still aging.
Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 v. New York Jets
This is a lot of points, but this is an unconventional year. AND the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets are B-A-D!
Detroit Lions -10 v. New York Giants
The Lions are going to be chomping at the bit after being stifled by the Eagles' defense last week after exploding against the Commanders. I think this could be a three-score game.
Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Honestly, I just took two double-digit favorites, why not take a third? (Because that is stupid, but this year has been crazy ...).
Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
This pick is predicated solely on the return of Trey Benson, coupled with Jacksonville overestimating their decimation of the Los Angeles Chargers last week, and thus under-preparing for Arizona. If no Benson, this pick is reversed.
Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders
You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?! And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?! And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?! What's the catch? Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ... I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)
Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Getting points at home against an intra-divisional rival is always going to be my go-to play, even though it is a short week for the Cowboys.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Los Angeles Rams
This was a very tough game for me to pick. It might feature the return of Buccaneers' starting running back Bucky Irving, and if it does, he would be well-rested for some reps/carries and alternate with Rachaad White and the surprisingly spry Sean Tucker to at least keep the Rams defense guessing. Will that be enough to win? Likely not, especially on the road. But a 30-24 score with the Rams winning? I can see that.
Carolina Panthers +7 at San Francisco 49ers
I am taking Carolina because of the points, and because Rico Dowdle is having a heckuva season running the ball (4th in the NFL), because San Francisco is still without Fred Warner, and nobody has figured out Carolina and how they are 6-5 this year. So, since my first impression is that San Francisco should win easily, I am picking Carolina.
Byes: Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders
You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?! And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?! And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?! What's the catch? Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ... I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)
It seems like this year I am going to get this pick wrong anyway, might as well really go down behind Shadeur Sanders' first start!
Last Week Record: 9-6
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 78-86
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-9
Last Week Winnings (Losses): $75
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,845)
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