Hey, I actually won my Big Bet last week!!! But, still underwater. I hate this year. A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Green Bay Packers +3 at Detroit Lions
Both squads are in a 3-way battle for conference supremacy (along with the Chicago Bears). I am going to go with the Packers defense (3rd in Total Defense/4th in Scoring Defense/5th in Pass Defense/6th in Rush Defense) especially since they are getting points. I cannot pick all 3 home teams on a short week, right?
Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Fresh off a really ugly win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are getting points on a short week at home. Kansas City had a great comeback over the Indianapolis Colts but are still in a life-or-death game every week in order to make the playoffs. That is going to catch up to them eventually, and this number 3 offense is really clicking at this moment.
Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Once gain home team/short week. The Bengals should get a boost from the return of Joe Burrow, but their one-demensionality on offense (30th in rushing), could be detrimental against a rapidly-improving Baltimore Ravens defense that although 22nd in the NFL, that is serious improvement over the last few weeks from when they were ranked dead last.
Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Chicago Bears
The Bears have pulled a lot of rabbits out of their collective hats, and on paper actually look a bit better than Philadelphia, but there is no question the Eagles are a better team. And, they are at home on Friday, I'll give the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
I know I should pick Tennessee as a home intra-divisional dog, but they just don't warrant the pick right now, not at under a touchdown. Next-to-last in offense and 26th in defense, facing a Jacksonville team that suddenly finds itself only 1 game behind the division-leading Colts in the AFC South.
Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at New York Jets
The J-E-T-S- Jets-Jets-Jets are awful. Just awful.
Los Angeles Rams -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Going to violate a gambling law no matter which way I pick, as Carolina is on a short week, but LA is traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window. So, going against the double-digit favorite would be the next step, but I can't do that, as the Rams might be the best team in football, and the 49ers may have broken Carolina's spirit on Monday night by winning a game Carolina had every right to win.
Miami Dolphins -6 v. New Orleans Saints
Miami on a two-game winning streak; let's make it 3, and they cover. Saints star Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and that could be a tremendous loss for a rookie quarterback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
It is looking like the Buccaneers are getting Bucky Irving back; not so much for Trey Benson and Arizona. Although the Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.
Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season. Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week. Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.
Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
As great as Cleveland's defense is, they are not even close to the level of the Houston Texans. The number 1 defense versus the number 2 offense. The big difference is that Houston's offense is mediocre, whereas Indianapolis' defense gives up a lot of yards (24th). This game is close, maybe a field goal either way.
Minnesota Vikings +11 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks absolutely win this game, as J.J. McCarthy has ... let's call it struggled. But 11 1/2 is a lot of points. A lot. So, I'll take them.
Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Both teams in the playoff hunt, but the Bills have lost 2 out of 3 and 3 out of 6. The Steelers have just looked - mediocre. So long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over, Bills win by 10. But that is a big IF ...
Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Only 8 1/2? Really? And the Raiders might be without Ashton Jeanty.
Denver Broncos -6 at Washington Commanders
Denver should be fresher coming off of a bye. And, playing against the 31st ranked defense in Total Defense that is also 29th against the pass (and 28th overall) might just be what Bo Nix needs to unlock Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Tony Franklin and the rest of the passing game.
New York Giants +7 1/2 at New England Patriots
The Patriots are better and will win, for sure. But the Giants have played 4 straight relatively close games, and Jameis Winston is a national treasure.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season. Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week. Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.
Getting points at home, with all of the surrounding situation for the 49ers as mentioned above. I am betting on defense.
Last Week Record: 6-7-1
Last Week Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 84-93-1
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-9
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($20)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,865)
