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First crashout week of the season for me - and virtually every person that selects the entire slate. At the very least I won my NFL confidence pool (which is straight up/with confidence points assigned to each pick). Let's move on and try to learn from last week. A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Home team/short week. But, apparently I overestimated how bad Atlanta was, as they are a different team with Michael Penix.
Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Double digits are always big concerns, especially on the road, but I am just going to bet against the Dolphins until the start covering.
Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
No way the Browns show up like they did last week in consecutive games. Carolina could be in the playoffs this year.
Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at New York Giants
Not just because of the Jaxson Dart injury, as Jameis Winston can sling the ball and make games interesting, but the Giants are going to have to do this on a short week.
Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. New England Patriots
This is essentially a pick 'em, as Jacksonville is only giving points because they are the home team. And, I have picked three road teams already this week, so given that this is a toss-up - I'll take the home team.
Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers may already be done this season, and Harbaugh may be done as the head coach, but they just don't know it yet (Schrodinger's coach, anyone?) And to top it all off, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team playing in the 1:00 slot on the east coast. I'll take the team playing the best in this game, too - Buffalo.
Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. New York Jets
I don't like this line at all, but Detroit IS the better team, even though the Jets are clearly improved (but that isn't saying much).
Houston Texans -1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
I am violating the NFL gambling rules here - by takin a road intra-divisional favorite, but I cannot pick the Colts with such a small spread.
Seatle Seahawks -7 1/2 at Washington Commanders
West coast team playing in the 1:00 slot on the east coast, but Sam Darnold is returning, and Jayden Daniels is not. This game could get ugly.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Another road favorite in an intra-divisional game, but I have to do something to counteract last week's results. It seems like violating the gambling rules might be the way to go, especially with Aaron Rodgers playing worse than Jordan Rodgers.
San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco is just playing better than anyone else in the NFL through the first two weeks, and that team should annihilate Arizona.
Minnesota Vikings -1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay may not score.
New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders ARE 2-0, but they still have not looked as good as New Orleans and the Tyler Shough to Chris Olave combination.
Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 versus Dallas Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Baltimore rebounds from the loss to the Saints in a big way.
Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are on a short week, and at altitude. That has to have some affect, right?
Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I do not necessarily think that the Bears are going to win here, but with their running game, they can keep it close, especially if Case Keenum ends up getting the start!
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco is just playing better than anyone else in the NFL through the first two weeks, and that team should annihilate Arizona.
I am not going to lie, most of my favorite picks are visiting teams, and I absolutely had to have a visiting team as my "Big Bet." I also don't like giving up more than a TD for my Big Bet, but this is the home team that I like the best, so go 49ers.
Results:
Last Week Record: 5-11
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 14-17-1
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-1
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($875)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($485)
