NFL Quarter-Season Review

 

As anyone who knows us knows - we are huge NFL fans here at We Make It Rain. And like any good NFL fans, we watch more than our share of games every year. This year is no exception. Since we have all of this NFL knowledge just seething to get out of our craniums, I thought that I would resurrect an old feature from way-back in the day - the quarter-season review.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season. 

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills (4-0)

The class of this division, most likely the conference, and possibly even the NFL at this point.  Josh Allen starting off on a repeat-MVP type of season, and James Cook back to his old touchdown-scoring self.  And the defense is stepping up, as it is the stoutest defense against the pass and 9th in Total Defense,

New England Patriots (2-2)

A surprisingly spry start for the Patriots who have definitely found their quarterback in Drake Maye.  They will lose some that they shouldn't as the running game is lacking (26th), but they will win some they shouldn't as their rush defense is strong (2nd).

Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Lots of holes on this team as they are 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  And, they just lost Tyreek Hill for the season.

New York Jets (0-4)

Just dreadful.  At least Justin Fields will make some plays exciting as he is funning for his life.  This team IS somehow 3rd in the NFL in rushing, which ain't nothing.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

Doing this with smoke-and-mirrors and an ayuhuasca-addled Aaron Rodgers.  The Steelers are 29th in Total Offense and 28th in Total Defense, yet they are 3-1.  I do not expect them to stay high in the Power Rankings all year, but Mike Tomlin might actually be the best coach in NFL history.  He has done more with less than any other coach.  Please note that I am not saying that he has never had talent, but even when he doesn't have a lot of talent, his teams are still good.

Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

Starting off 2-0 with Joe Burrow is way different than finishing at least the majority of the season without him.  The fact that the defense is 29th in total defense doesn't help matters, either.

Baltimore Ravens (1-3)

Easily the best 1-3 team of all time with their losses to the Bills/Lions/Chiefs - but they are still only 1-3.  The trepidatiously await the results of Lamar Jackson's MRI today.

Cleveland Browns (1-3)

time to give Dillon Gabriel a chance.  And if that doesn't work, Shadeur Sanders.  And look to trade Myles Garret to get a haul of picks in the next two to three years.  This year is O-V-E-R.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (3-1)

Maybe New York/New Jersey was the problem and not Daniel Jones.  The Colts have the 3rd overall offense in the NFL (4th passing?!) and have scored the 4th-highest amount of points.  The defense is less stout than usual (17th overall) but is T8th against the run.  And, they have Jonthan Taylor and Nick Cross who are among the NFL's best at their positions, and the emerging star Tyler Warren.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)

One of the surprises of the year - at least to me - and their one loss was prior to Joe Burrow's injury in Cincinnati.  Travis Etienne is leading a rushing group that is 4th in the NFL, keeping the time of possession in the Jags' favor, and the rush defense is also 4th in the league.

Houston Texans (1-3)

So disappointing.  We may have seen the best of C.J. Stroud (23rd in Passing Offense).  Defense is tough, as they lead the league in Scoring Defense and are 7th in Total Defense.

Tennessee Titans (0-4)

Worst team in the league, but on the bright side, Cam Ward looks like he belongs!

AFC WEST

Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are balanced on both sides of the ball (7th in Total Offense and 4th in Total Defense), and could make a deep run in the playoffs.  However, they have lost both tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and that could ultimately spell their downfall this season.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

They started off 0-2 with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, but boy what a difference Xavier Worthy makes.  The Chiefs offense was humming in this week's victory over the Ravens, scoring 37.  And what a difference Chris Jones makes, as his return also coincided with the Chiefs defeat of the Ravens.  Will be scary for the rest of the year (Stop me if you have heard this before!)

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Losses to the Colts (by 1) and Chargers (by 3) are not bad losses by any stretch of the imagination, especially since Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton seem to be on the same page these last two weeks.  That could be dangerous to the rest of the league, as Denver is already 5th in the NFL in Rushing Offense.  The defense, led by Nick Bonitto is T2 in Scoring Defense and T3 in third-down percentage defense.

Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)

They may have an emerging star at running back in Ashton Jeanty, but Geno Smith is nowhere near his Seattle-level of play.  Defense isn't helping matters as they are 20th in Total Defense despite Maxx Crosby's stellar play.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (4-0)

At 4-0, clearly one of the best teams in the league, but they are undefeated despite have the 30th ranked Total Offense in the league and the 22nd ranked Total Defense.  Sound victory over Tampa this weekend shows that they just might be better than the stats show - or they could revert to the mean.

Washington Commanders (2-2)

A way different team with Jayden Daniels injured, but the second-best rushing offense using a multitude of running backs can at least keep you in every game.

Dallas Cowboys (1-2-1_

At times they have looked awful (a 31-14 loss to the Bears and a 3-point victory over the Giants), and then they come out of nowhere and tie the Green Bay Packers 40-40.  Dak Prescott leads the NFL in passing, and is spreading the ball around in the wake of losing CeeDee Lamb for a bit to injury.  Defense is atrocious though - last in the league in Total Defense and 31st in Scoring Defense.

New York Giants (1-3)

The plusses are that they are finally starting Jaxson Dart and have played gritty.  The negative is that Malik Nabers is lost for the year.

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NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions (3-1)

A two-touchdown loss to the Packers in week 1 is the only blemish in an otherwise stellar resume.  The lead the NFL in scoring, and are 8th in Total Offense, while maintaining a respectable 13th-rankin in Total Defense.  They will be a team to reckon with in the playoffs, and a likely NFC Championship game participant barring injuries.

Green Bay Packers (2-1-1)

The Packers started off as literally the best team in the league in the first two weeks.  Then, a 13-10 loss to Cleveland and a 40-40 tie against Dallas.  Has the league figured out Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur?  They do boast the 6th best Total Defense (2nd against the rush) and the offense is ranked 9th, but have they lost some luster?

Minnesota Vikings (2-2)

J.J. McCarthy is hurt, but it seems the offense might be better without him.  The Bears let them off the hook in week 1, and the Vikes other win was a thrashing of a Joe Burrow-less Bengals team.  They are 3rd against the pass defensively, but their 22nd Total Offense ranking leaves a lot to be desired.  Could go either way this season.

Chicago Bears (2-2)

They definitely look much better this year, and Caleb Williams is well on his way to setting team single-season records for yards and touchdowns.  The rushing game needs to improve (24th) as does the rushing defense (32nd) to make any real noise, but the improvement is there.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)

Tampa Bay has played fantastic, despite having been cut-down by injuries.  They have been led by the defense which is 5th in Total Defense, and Rush Defense, while the offense is middle-of-the-pack.  The one dangerous sign is that each of their three wins has been on last-minute drives by Baker Mayfield.  The good thing is that they know they can win last-minute drives!

Atlanta Falcons (2-2)

The fact that Atlanta is only 2-2 is fascinating.  They are like the anti-Eagles, in that all of their stats say "Undefeated!"  They have the 6th ranked Total Offense (9th in passing and 7th in rushing) ANZD the 2nd ranked Total Defense (including 2nd against the pass).  One of the losses was a 30-0 drubbing at the hands of the lowly Carolina Panthers.

Carolina Panthers (1-3)

Really, really bad, and except for the 30-0 blowout of the Falcons, one could say that they are horrible and that the Bryce Young pick was a waste.

New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Easily the bottom-dweller of the NFC.  Only stats you need to know:  28th in scoring and 30th in scoring defense.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

Surprisingly spry considering the amount of injuries they have suffered.  All of the time these backups have been playing is only going to make them deeper and more dangerous as the year progresses.  The Fred Warner-led defense is 3rd in Total Defense, and 7th in Scoring Defense.  The offense, that even lost Brock Purdy for a couple of games, is 2nd in Passing Offense and 5th in Total Offense.

Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Rams have been fantastic besides, even though two of their wins are against the Texans and Titans.  They are 4th in Total Offense and 10th in Total Defense, without any real contribution in the pass game outside of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Seattle Seahawks (3-1)

Seattle is a surprising 3-1, but we forget that Sam Darnold is a more than serviceable regular season quarterback.  The team is 6th in Scoring Offense and Tied for 2nd in Scoring Defense.  That will win you a lot of games.  Plus, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is having an Offensive Player of the Year type of year.

Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Arizona is an unusual 202, as they rank 28th in Total Offense and 23rd in Total Defense.  Kyler Murray is going to stunt Marvin Harrison, Jr.'s growth - and potential stardom.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Buffalo Bills 4-0

2.  Philadelphia Eagles 4-0

3.  Los Angeles Chargers 3-1

4.  Detroit Lions 3-1

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-1

6.  San Francisco 49ers

7.  Los Angeles Rams 3-1

8  Indianapolis Colts 3-1

9.  Seattle Seahawks 3-1

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 3-1

11.  Pittsburgh Steelers 3-1

12.  Green Bay Packers 2-1-1

13.  Kansas City Chiefs 2-2

14.  Denver Broncos 2-2

15.  Washington Commanders 2-2

16.  New England Patriots 2-2

17.  Minnesota Vikings 2-2

18.  Chicago Bears 2-2

19.  Atlanta Falcons 2-2

20.  Arizona Cardinals 2-2

21.  Cincinnati Bengals 2-2

22. Dallas Cowboys 1-2-1

23.  Baltimore Ravens 1-3

24.  Houston Texans 1-3

25.  Las Vegas Raiders 1-3

26.  New York Giants 1-3

27.  Miami Dolphins 1-3

28.  Cleveland Browns 1-3

29.  Carolina Panthers 1-3

30.  New York Jets 0-4

31.  New Orleans Saints 0-4

32.  Tennessee Titans 0-4

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Defensive MVP - Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LIX

Super Bowl Sunday is here - and it's about time that this travesty of a football season - gambling-wise anyway - is coming to an end.  That doesn't mean that there isn't some opportunity to cut into my huge losses for the year.  Hopefully we can find some really good prop bets to be successful, since I don't have any idea of what is going to happen in the game.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles

This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2.  Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year.  In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia.  First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty.  [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.]  This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line.  But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year.  It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season.  First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes.  As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes."  Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid.  And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare.  Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game.  32-7!!!  That is astronomical!!!

Kansas City Chiefs -118 versus Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $118 to win $100)

This would be a perfect hedge, except for one thing, the Eagles are only even money.  That isn't enough to make a difference on the season, so if I think KC is going to win at -1, then I have to take them for the moneyline.  Plus, two more stats involving rematches in the Super Bowl.  This is the fifth rematch between coaches (Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni).  In all 4 previous coaching rematches, the previous winning coach won the subsequent Super Bowl.  This is also the fourth rematch between quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts).  In each of the three previous rematches, the initial winning quarterback won the rematch.

Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2

I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd.  But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less?  I do not.  If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.

Now, on to the props!!!

Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds

Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long.  And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave". 

Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.

Travis Kelce OVER 60.5 yars -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Kelce has hit this number in 14 of 15 career playoff games since 2020.

Dallas Goedert/Xavier Worthy 50/50 Parlay +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)

This bet is for both players to gain more than 50 receiving yards.

Dallas Goedert Over 4 1/2 receipts -137 (Bet $137 to win $100)

Kansas City averages giving up 6 receiptions per game to tight ends.

Xavier Worthy Any Time Touchdown +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)

Given Worthy's importance to this offense, and it seems that Mahomes has been looking for Worthy more and more.

Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 2 1/2 +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)

These teams take a lot of chances.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 47 1/2 -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Harrison Butker has made three of the eleven field goals over 49 yards in Super Bowl history.

Total Sacks Under 5 1/2 -145 (Bet $145 to win $100)

Two very mobile and poised quarterbacks who are also smart enough to throw the ball away.  They combined for two sacks just two years ago.

DeAndre Hopkins OVER 1 1/2 receptions +105 (Bet $100 to win $105)

It just feels like Kansas City has been waiting for him to break out.  What better time than the Super Bowl.

Noah Gray OVER 11 1/2 receiving yards -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Gray averages 10.9 yards per catch, so two catches and this should be easy.

Noah Gray Any Time Touchdown +500 (Bet $100 to win $500)

A good percentage of Gray's targets this year came inside the 20-yard line, and his 5 TDs and great hands make him a favorite target of Mahomes near the endzone.

Big Bets:

Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles

This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2.  Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year.  In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia.  First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty.  [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.]  This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line.  But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year.  It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season.  First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes.  As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes."  Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid.  And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare.  Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game.  32-7!!!  That is astronomical!!!

Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2

I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd.  But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less?  I do not.  If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.

Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds

Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long.  And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave". 

Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.

Record

Last Week's Record:  2-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  151-146-11

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-13

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($405)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,907.65)

Picks of the Week

 

As expected, last week was a cluster - A1 certified cluster.  But what to expect when we don't even know who will be playing or for how long half the time.  I will say BOOO to the Dallas Cowboys for playing Trey Lance the entire game, keeping Cooper Rush from hitting a $250,000 bonus, and a big kudos to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who threw one last pass to Mike Evans securing 1,000 yards on the season, and a $3 million bonus.  

It's playoff time, so hopefully it is time to use everything we learned this year to make some real money!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 at Houston Texans

The Chargers defense is the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL.  Houston's defense is no slouch either, finishing 6th against the pass and 7th in total defense.  But, J.K. Dobbins is expected to return, and that can only open up things for a Justin Herbert-led passing offense that has discovered a true weapon in Ladd McConkey.

Los Angeles Chargers -155 at Houston Texans (Bet $155 to win $100)

If I am willing to pick the Chargers against the spread on the road, then -155 is not enough of a change to warrant a hedge bet and taking Houston.  If it was -180 or something, then I might have thought about it, but not for this.

Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans OVER 41 1/2

The defenses are too good for this to be a shootout, but this line is low  Simething like 27-20 or 27-17 seems right to me.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This line may seem really high for an intradivisional game in which the teams split during the regular season, but the Steelers that defeated the Ravens 18-16 in week 11 are not the same Steelers that Baltimore decimated 34-17 in Week16, or even the ones that are playing now.

Baltimore Ravens -550 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $550 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 1st against the run, which should minimize what little strength on offense the Steelers have (11th in rushing/27th in passing).  The Ravens on offense are the best rushing team in the NFL averaging over 187 yards per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens OVER 44 1/2

Baltimore will have over 30 themselves behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.  Yes, losing Zay Flowers hurts, but that just means an increase in two-tight end sets with Isaiah Likely joining Mark Andrews, and that is dangerous to defenses, especially in short yardage situations.

Buffalo Bills -8 v. Denver Broncos

I have seen this line as high as 9 1/2, so if I can take 8 I will.  This is the end of a Cinderella-like run for Denver this year, and although their future could be bright with some more offensive weapons, this isn't their year.

Buffalo Bills -425 v. Denver Broncos (Bet $425 to win $100)

Buffalo is just better, and they will win this game.  So, have to take them in the money line - no doubts.

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills OVER 47 1/2

Not including last week's game where Buffalo rested everybody, they have scored on their own 40, 24, 48, 42, 35, 30,30,30 31, and 34 in their previous 10 games.  Sure looks like a good over bet to me as all we will need is Denver to score SOMETHING.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Philadelphia Eagles -240 (Bet $240 to win $100)

I hate not having some money line to hedge my bets against the favorites (and yes, the Chargers are the favorites even though they are the lower seeded team and playing on the road), but I feel that Philly is going to slam Green Bay, so I have to take it.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2

Both teams defenses shoould keep this really low scoring, and I do not expect Green bay to contribute much toward the total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Washington Commanders

Great season by Washington, led by the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels (it should be Brock Bowers, but I digress).  Baker Mayfield has this Bucs offense humming along, as they are 4th in scoring, 4th in rushing, 3rd in passing, 3rd in total offense and 1st in 3rd down percentage.  Compare that to Washingon's defense which is 3rd against the pass, but 30th against the run, 11th in total defense, and 18th in scoring defense.  Daniels will make plays to keep the Commanders in the game, but Tampa should be too much.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -160 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $160 to win $100)

This might ordinarily be one of the games where I would hedge a bet, but the spread just isn't big enough to do that.  Bucky Irving will have a big game, keeping the Commanders offense off the field.

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 50 1/2

If you can't take the under on the highest O/U on the board, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

In a game moved to Glendale because of the massive fires in Los Angeles and Los Angeles County, you would think the Rams would lose their home-field advantage, which they earned by winning their division - even though Minnesota had a better record.  But, everybody is going to be cheering for the Rams, securing their "home field".  Also, they have a lot to play for on behalf of all of LA (as do the Chargers).  I look a lot at the Week 8 game in which the Rams won 30-20 in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp's first games back from injury.

Los Angeles Rams +125 v. Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $125)

If I think an underdog is going to win outright, then I absolutely am going to take them for the money line.  

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Big Bets:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is playing (as is Jalen Hurts), but Green Bay is nowhere near as explosive without Christian Watson, who is out after tearing his ACL.  Philadelphia's defense is already 1st against the pass (and total defense), and this will make it easier for them to defend.

Green Bay is done for this year.  The Bears lost last week was a symptom that this is not the same team as earlier in the season.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams OVER 47 1/2

Minnesota's pass defense is 28th in the NFL, meaning Stafford, Nacua and Kupp could have field days.  Likewise, Los Angeles' pass defense is 20th in the NFL, menaing Darnold, Jefferson and Addision could also have big days.  That should mean lots of points.

Lots of offensive firepower is hard to shut down for 60 minutes.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-128-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-9

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($815)

Picks of the Week

The NFL is back!!!!  That means that the newest installment of my NFL picks of the week is also back!!!  Yes, this can be humiliating at times, rewarding at others, but for those of you that do or don't like some of my picks, just know it is A LOT more difficult when you force yourself to do EVERY game, and not pick-and-choose the ones you think are the easiest bets.  And with that, I am very much looking forward to this year!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl hangover, an improved Lions team, no Travis Kelce, and an unknown wide receiver corps.  I will take the points.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans

This Texans team was actually playing tough last year under Lovie Smith, even though they were not very good.  Demeco Ryans has passion, but a rookie quarterback.  Lots of points for week 1, but Lamar Jackson might feel he has something to prove this year.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The last 7 times a quarterback has been taken number 1 overall in the draft, he has lost in  his debut.  That streak should stay alive after this game.

Cleveland Browns +2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Do I honestly think the Bengals will win?  Yes.  Under ordinary circumstances would I have picked the Bengals?  Yes.  Prior to week 1 do we actually know anything about these teams?  No.  That is why I will take the points for a home team playing a division rival - a known betting rule.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 v. San Francisco 49ers

In a refrain that you will read often in this space, west coast team travelling to the east coast and playing in the 1:00 slot fail to cover over 2/3rds of the time.

Washington Commanders -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

There is no chance that the Cardinals are good this year, right?  Josh Dobbs at QB?  Seriously?

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can be very explosive, with or without Dalvin Cook.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has (1) a rookie quarterback; that (2) wasn't very good in college; with (3) no real stud receivers; and (4) playing without its star running back.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I don' think we know anything about how these two teams are going to be.  So, I'll take the points.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Green Bay Packers

No Aaron Rodgers and now no Christian Watson for Jordan Love.  Aaron Jones may gain a ton of yards, but the newly-explosive Bears offense takes over the game.

Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Los Angeles Rams

Could the Rams be in the running for Caleb Williams?

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Denver Broncos

Does Denver actually have a healthy receiver on its roster?  That is all I could come up with because this is purely speculation.  

Miami Dolphins +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This Miami offense could be unstoppable, and they tried to upgrade their defense.  Mike McDaniel is a rising star in this league.  This might be the most fun game to watch of the weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots cut Matt Carrol and re-signed Bailey Zappe.  This means the best Patriots quarterback will be in the stands as the team honors Tom Brady.

New York Giants + 3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I really want to select Dallas here, but I hate giving up points on the road in a divisional matchup.  Dak turns the ball over to keep this really close 27-24 Dallas.

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Again, I hate giving up pints on the road in in intra-divisional matchup.  Only reason I am picking the Jets.

Big Bet:

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

I was looking for a home team to select for my big bet, preferably receiving points or giving very few, but this looks too enticing to pass up.  Eagles roll!

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):

Picks of the Week - YEARLY RECAP

 

So another season has ended, and what a great year it was.  The playoffs were a high point, as I definitely learned throughout the year, and that knowledge of this season definitely helped.  If only a couple of more sacks in the Super Bowl and this would have been TREMENDOUS, as I lost two sacks-related prop bets.  For the season, Buffalo was great, but not as great as everyone thought.  I shorted them.  Cincinnati was a betting godsend.  I took Washington early, but then gave up on them right around Taylor Heinecke's second start.  Miami was a roller coaster wave that a savvy bettor could ride with tremendous success.  And never sell Patrick Mahomes short, or overlook Andy Reid with a bye week (27-4 in his career).  All of that led to this ...

Last Week's Record:  7-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1

Year-to-Date Record:  162-139-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  13-9-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $405

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL Edition

 

Well - after two long, grueling weeks - especially for those of you that may have accidentally stubled onto the Pro Bowl - we are back for the Super Bowl.  Let's jump right into the picks.  Given that there is only one game - I may make a few prop bets also.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Look, the Eagles ARE the play here.  I knew since the line was set that I was going to select the Eagles.  Then I found out that 73% of the bets are on Philadelphia.  Since it is always best to go AGAINST the majority of the bettors, I settleed on Kansas City.  Plus, I realize that Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown a good meaningful pass in like 2 months.  All of the thoughts are on Mahomes' ankle, which will be shot up if it hurts, when Hurts' shoulder is way more questionable.

Kansas City Chiefs +110 v. Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $110)

In for an ounce in for a pound, am I right?  Also, for all of the notoriety that the Eagles' pass rush has garnered this year - all of it deserved - (most sacks in a season and 4 players with at least 12 sacks), but Kansas City only gave up 26 sacks this year (2nd fewest in the NFL.)  The Eagles gave up 44, and Kansas City does have some pass rushers in Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51

This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past.  That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing.  Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down.  This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.

Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds

If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.

Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19 1/2 rushing yards (-110 - Bet 110 to win 100)

Philadelphia loves them some Kenneth Gainwell.  I feel like this is a lock.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 15 1/2 receiving yards

He has hit this in 6 of the last 9 games.  Could be close with Toney and McKinnon taking dump offs too.

Isiah Pacheco UNDER 11 1/5 rush attempts

Less rushes if he is catching passes, plus 3 other players (Edwards-Helaire, McKinnon, Toney) to take some carries too.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 18 1/2 rushing yards

Dude can scramble, even if the ankle is bad.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks

See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.

Kansas City Chiefs OVER 2 1/2 Sacks

Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis all get at least 1.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 3 1/2 Field goals

High-scoring offenses do not stall in the red zone.

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51

This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past.  That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing.  Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down.  This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.

If both of these teams have an average game, we hit 57.

Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds

If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.

The average time to sing the anthem is 1:47.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks

See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.

I feel like we will see quite a few this game, but spread out throughout the four quarters, not every play like last year.

Last Week's Record:  2-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  155-135-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-8-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($405)

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $679.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $824.50

Picks of the Week

The divisional round was fantastic for us, which is a good thing because I do not know if I can really figure out the conference championship games.  Of course, we will give it a shot and hope for the best.  Seriously, this is about the best final four matchups for which we could have hoped in terms of quality teams and great matchups.  Going to be a great football day!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

A dynamic matchup between the 6th and 3rd highest scoring offenses, and the 1st and 4th best defenses.  Strength versus strength with Piladelphia being the 5th best rushing offense and San Franciso being the best overall defense, and 2nd best against the run.  Jalen Hurts is the difference here, as Brock Purdy - who has done an admirable job - is still just a rookie.  But, given that, I still think this game will be close, so I will take the points.  West coast team traveling east, but this game is not being played in the 1:00 time slot, so I will still take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -155 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $155 to win $100)

As stated above, Jalen Hurts is going to be the difference here, and will not make the key mistake(s) that Purdy will.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45

Two of the better defenses in the NFL, and a rookie quarterback make for an interesting under bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +115 at Kansas City Chiefs

I am going to take a Joe Burrow at 100% with J'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and a hobbled Travis Kelce.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiegs OVER 48

I expect a shootout!!!

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

If I expect Cincinnati to win, then the fact that they are getting points must mean I should make this my big bet.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-131-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

 

Super Wild Card Weekend went pretty much as expected, as 5 of the 6 top seeds won games, and the won that lost - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - were the underdogs in that game.  To be fair, "Cue Letterkenny - TO BE FAIRRRRRRRRRRRR," Jacksonville as the 4 seed was also an underdog and beat the Chargers, so 5 of the top 6 favorites won, while 5 of the top 6 seeds won, but they all weren't the same five.  Anyway - really good playoff week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Once again the Jaguars are playing on Saturday, to basically kick-off the playoff coverage, and although their amazing comeback last week was captivating, I don't expect that type of comeback against Kansas City's offense.  Yes, I said offense, because even if Jacksonville scores against KC's defense, they will not be able to stop the leagues highest-scoring offense.

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 53

I see a 35-14/35-17 type of game today.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 v. New York Giants

This might seem tough because of the close game the teams just played in the last week of the season (22-16), but then I realize that the Giants are playing on a short week, so I will take the home team with full rest because of a bye playing a team travelling on a short week.

Philadelphia Eagles -375 v. New York Giants (Bet $375 to win $100)

Plus, the Eagles have the third best defense (total AND scoring) in the NFL, whereas the Giants 27th ranked rushing defense will try to stop the Eagles fifth-rated rushing attack.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48

This seems like a 35-17 game, or 33-21.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bills

This is the game that I am most looking forward to seeing.  I picked Cincinnati in the Damar Hamlin game because Buffalo has not seemed dominant, and even the Bears stayed even with Bills for 3+ quarters.  Giving 6 to Cincinnati with a depleted secondary seems dangerous as Cincinnati is the 5th best passing attack in the league.  The injuries on Cincinnati's offensive line are concerning, but they overcame that last year to make the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals +210 at Buffalo Bills (Bet $100 to win $210)

Buffalo's line is at -250, so it just makes sense to take the Cincinnati money line here.  Cincinnati may not shock anybody this year, but they still win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills OVER 49

Would it shock anybody if this went 30+ points for both teams?

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco is rested, and they have the number 1 defense in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Plus, they have the 6th highest scoring offense, and is there any doubt they would have been higher had they had Christian McCaffrey all year?  Plus, the Cowboys are playing on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -200 v. Dallas Cowboys

If I think the 49ers are going to cover the spread, I must think they are going to win outright, correct?  San Francisco is my favorite to win the Super Bowl right now.  Not sure who has the brawn to stop them, or the guns to outscore them.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers OVER 46 1/2

Honestly, I think this number is a bit low, so I will definitely take the over.

Big Bet:

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

The biggest monetary risk on the board is also the easiest pick on the board.  Have I mentioned that Andy Reid is 20-3 coming off a bye week.  These teams met in November, with Mahomes going 26-35 for 331 yards and 4 TDs, plus rushing for 39 more yards.  KC wins this.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  145-127-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $609.50

Picks of the Week

 

A second amazing week - IN A ROW!!!  After consecutive 11-5 weeks, what do we think is going to happen this week?  It doesn't seem like there are as many Covid issues, so back to normal could mean back to reality (back to life) for me.  Let's hope not and keep this winning streak going!  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Wouldn't it be just like Matt Nagy to win his last home game, and convincingly, with Andy Dalton at QB, and then use that to try to leverage another season as head coach?  Plus, a Bears win simultaneously helps the Giants with their own first round pick, then knocks down the one they picked up from the Bears in the Justin Field draft-day trade.  Unfortunately, the converse is also true.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes the Dolphins have a 7-game winning streak, but those have come against the depleted Saints, Jets twice, Giants, Panthers, Texans, and their one good win, the Ravens.  Tennessee NEEDS this game to stay in the hunt for the 1-seed and home-field advantage in the AFC.

Buffalo Bills -14 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This pick seems preposterous given the huge number, but hear me out here .... The Bills have scored at least 27 in the last 3 games, including 31+ in the last two games.  Atlanta is giving up the 4th most points in the NFL, whereas the Bills are the third stingiest defense in points allowed - plus 1st in total defense, and 1st in passing defense.  Atlanta is also near the bottom in points scored.  Still a scary number, though.

Jacksonville Jaguars +16 1/2 at New England Patriots

This line is just WAY too high.  New England still wins easily.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, Carson Wentz has cleared protocols, and yes, Jonathan Taylor is the MVP of the NFL this year, but players have been sluggish coming out of Covid and the Raiders NEED this game more than the Colts, so they will be desperate to keep it close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -13 1/2 at New York Jets

Yes big line, and yes Tampa Bay is playing on the road, BUT, dare we say it, this team functions best when Antonio Brown is in the lineup, and the offense should be clicking today.  Look for a big game from Brown and a touchdown for Cameron Brate.

Baltimore Ravens +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

Lamar Jackson MAY play.  Not sure if he is ready, and the Rams are solidly better, especially since integrating Sony Michel into the offense.  But, it is a west coast team traveling east to play the 1:00 game, so I am taking the points.  Not sure why as all of the traditional gambling rules have gone haywire this year, but there it is.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Philadelphia just beat the Football Team by 10 two weeks ago, and despite now travelling to Raljon, Maryland, Philadelphia has improved and Washington has digressed since then.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

This should be the most exciting game of the day, with both QBs (Mahomes and Burrow) just throwing the ball all over the field.  Plus, Kansas City's pass defense is 25th in the league and Cincinnati's is worse, at 29th.  Should be a high-scoring affair, and in a shootout, give me Mahomes.

Denver Broncos +7 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

This game should be a grind, meaning I will take the touchdown and the hook.  I still expect the Chargers to win, but maybe 20-17.

Houston Texans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Houston's has scored over 30 in the past 2 games, putting up 30 against the Jaguars and 41 against the Chargers in consecutive wins.  With the unknown that is Trey Lance most likely manning the helm for the Niners offense, Houston should be able to take some of the things they learned in the past few weeks to keep this relatively close.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has lost two in a row and is reeling, and although they do have a number of offensive weapons, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins hurts everyone.  Dallas is crusing, having won 4 in a row, and if they get up on Arizona early, they could force a turnover for their 10th non-offensive touchdown of they year.

 

Detroit Lions +8 at Seattle Seahawks

Once again, Dan Campbell said that nobody was going to play harder than his Lions, regardless of talent, and he was right.  Seattle will be looking for some redemption having lost to the lowly Bears last week but, even if they win, this game will be close.

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The wheels have fallen off the Carolina Panthers season, having lost 5 in a row.  Make it six.

Green Bay Packers -13 v. Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Rodgers versus ... Sean Mannion?  Really?  He is in the league?

Cleveland Browns -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Nobody will be able to rescue Ben Roethlisberger's final home game at Heinz Field.  Despite American Underdog playing in movie theaters, most of the time there is no storybook ending.

Big Bet:

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Philadelphia just beat the Football Team by 10 two weeks ago, and despite now travelling to Raljon, Maryland, Philadelphia has improved and Washington has digressed since then.

I hate picking divisional road teams, much less favorites, as my Big Bet, but this seems the most obvious choice, since I don't want to go with Detroit as my Big Bet two weeks in a row (although successful last week).

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  130-110

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $465

Picks of the Week

Out of town today, and travelling tomorrow, so no time for analysis - just picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars 1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Dallas Cowboys -22 1/2 v.  Miami Dolphins
This line is too ridiculous and there is no reason to take it.  By the way, some betting sites have taken "Dolphins go 0-16" off the board.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bill's

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders +9 at Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots -22 1/2 v. New York Jets
Also too ridiculous a line to even exist.  Why not take it?

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Detroit Lions

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

New York Giants +6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston Texans +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

San Francisco 49ers  -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
I know, I know... no road favorites.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears -4 at Washington Racists

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Detroit Lions
Ezekiel Ansah will be playing his first game of the season ... but for Seattle, not Drtroit.

Last Week's Record:  7-9
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  11-21
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($910)

Picks of the Week

After an awful week, I am going to try to spend a bit of time analyzing my selections this week.  See if I cannot turn this around.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -1 at Arizona Cardinals
I hate selecting the road teams on Thursday night (or any short week, really), but Arizona is a special type of bad this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans at Wembley Stadium (London)
Yes, Melvin Gordon is a late scratch, which hurts this selection, but I just didn't have enough time to process all of that, and the line-makers didn't either.  I still don't know how Tennessee has won as many games as they have.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots are better, yes, I get that.  But after the egg that Chicago laid last week at Miami, and with Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack both playing - and Rob Gronkowski not, I could see this being 31-30, or 21-20.

Indianapolis Colts -7 v. Buffalo Bills
Two weeks ago, Derek Anderson was out of football.  OUT OF FOOTBALL.  And here he is signed and starting.  You mean to tell me that Derek Anderson is better than Colin Kaepernick?

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I have gone back-and-forth on this game a number of times.  First, the Jaguars defense has not looked good the last couple of weeks, and could be just the remedy the Texans need to jump start their offense.  But, DeAndre Hopkins is hurt, and although will still play - and might still have a big game - they might not have enough firepower to beat the Jaguars - IF the Jaguars we know return to the field.  But then again, Blake Bortles.  Ugh.

Detroit Lions -3 at Miami Dolphins
There is no way the Lions allow two 70+ yard screen passes for touchdowns this week like Chicago gave up to Brock Osweiler, who has yet to actually throw a ball 8 yards pass the line of scrimmage.

Minnesota -3 1/2 at New York Jets 
I don't think that Isaiah Crowell can rush for that many yards against this Minnesota Vikings defense.  Not sure that the Jets can cover both Stefan Diggs AND Adam Thielen.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Browns, who are 5th in the NFL in rushing, have just handed the keys to rookie Nick Chubb, as they traded Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars this week.  Will be interested in seeing how, if at all, that affects the offense.  Tampa is still not very dynamic without Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I will take the points.

New Orleans Saints + 2 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
One of the two marquee games this week, with the best offense versus the best defense.  Can Joe Flacco do enough so that the defense doesn't have to stop Drew Brees?  Probably, but Drew Brees still makes just enough plays to probably win outright.

Washington Racists +1 v. Dallas Cowboys
Two good defenses, with virtually anemic offenses.  Washington is at home, and for some reason, I just think they are better.

San Francisco 49ers +9 v. Los Angeles Rams
Let's be clear, Rams win this game.but San Francisco has not been a pushover since losing Jimmy Garrapolo. I see a backdoor cover on a last minute touchdown by San Francisco to lost by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City's offense is virtually unstoppable, but their defense gives up everything (last in total defense, 31st in pass defense; 27th in run defense), and Cincinnati is the 6th highest scoring team in the league.  I will take 6 points knowing Kansas City is going to give up a lot themselves.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
A Monday Night Football game that most people won't watch.

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

I almost selected the Indianapolis game, but Derek Anderson is that much of a wildcard.

Last Week's Record: 6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 45-42-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($480)

Super Bowl Picks of the Week

Jacksonville took the Patriots to the brink, but the Patriots prevailed.  Philadelphia just took Minnesota to the woodshed.  This brings us to the Super Bowl Picks of the Week. Not many picks this week so I will be adding a prop bet.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles +4 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Each of the Patriots Super Bowl wins has been close, including come from behind win last year against the Falcons.  Philadelphia's defense, especially up front, is every bit as good as Jacksonville's, which seemed to stymie New England for most of the game.  The difference, Philly's offense is better.

Philadelphia Eagles +170 over New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $170)
For all the reasons that I stated above.  Plus, I had this one last year and the Falcons just caved.  I don't expect the Eagles to do the same thing.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots UNDER 49
I hate taking the under.  But this game has a 24-20 feel to it to me.

Pink's National Anthem UNDER 2:00
Luke Bryan went under 2:00 minutes last year, and his over/under was 2:15.  Pink is different because there are no recordings of her singing the national anthem previously.  I think she won't extend brave too long, and will go under.

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles +4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Last Week's Record: 4-2
Playoff Record - 16-14
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Playoff Big Bet:  3-0
Year-to-Date Record:  140-138-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  12-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $300
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $130
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1080)

Picks of the Week

Inching over .500 for the season in record (though behind in $$).  I would say that perhaps I am figuring out this season, but we all know that is not true.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Tennessee Titans
Finally, a home favorite on a Thursday night with a number that I feel fine with giving.  I would ordinarily have made this my "Big Bet", except that weird things happen on a Thursday night.  Glad they didn't this time.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Detroit Lions
The Bears have played favorites well at home this year (see Atlanta, Pittsburgh), so I will take the points. It doesn't hurt that Detroit isn't significantly great at anything on offense (15th total yards, 29th rushing).  They are the 6th highest scoring team, so not sure that makes sense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 at Cleveland Browns
Other than the fact this is Cleveland, we could have had an interesting battle with the top rated rush offense (Jacksonville) versus the 4th rated rush defense (Cleveland).  Too bad Jacksonville's defense will overwhelm Cleveland's offense.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at Green Bay Packers
I don't like giving up the points here, but I feel Danny Woodhead will make one or two plays to secure the victory.  Baltimore's biggest liability is their rush defense, but Green Bay has a next-to-nothing rush offense which is unlikely to take advantage of that liability.

Arizona Cardinals +2 at Houston Texans
What an awful game.  Gimme the points and pray for rain.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Minnesota Vikings
No joke, this is a battle of two of the titans of the NFC, both leading their respective divisions at 7-2.  It's the Rams 3rd ranked offense in total yards - and 1st in points - versus the Vikings 5th rated defense in total yards - but 15th in points.  I'll take the bonus point and the Rams.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Washington Racists
I really, really didn't want to pick the Saints here because that line just seems a bit too large.  If it was 6 1/2 or 7 - I would take the Saints and their second ranked offense easily.  However, seeing that the Racists are 26th in the league in points allowed at 25.8 per game, I expect New Orleans to get at least 35.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 at New York Giants
Not a good feeling with this pick, but it seems like the Giants are getting worse and worse each week.  This might be exactly what Kansas City needs to get back on track.  I expect Travis Kelce to have  a HUGE game.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Miami is floundering, but the Buccaneers are in even worse shape.  If Cutler is going to get going with Landry and Parker, this is the game to do it, as Tampa has the 29th rated pass defense in the league.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
From what I hear, the team (meaning players, not administration) really like Nathan Peterman.  We will see if that faith is rewarded in Peterman's first NFL start.  Perhaps he, and Kelvin Benjamin, can jump start the league's 30th ranked passing offense.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Andy Dalton has not lit up the statistics like he has in the past, but he does have an 88.2 QBR, whereas the Broncos defense is 29th in points allowed at 26.6 (while being 4th in total yards).  This can only be explained by losing the field possession battle thanks to the likes of Brock Osweiler, who will be starting today!.

Oakland Raiders +7 v. New England Patriots
Ever stat says to pick the Patriots in this one, except for New England's 32nd (read: last) ranked defense and 32nd ranked pass defense.  Is it time for Carr and Amari Cooper to have another stellar game?  I think so.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Seattle has won five of their last 6, and are 3-1 at home this season.  The Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor the rest of the season, but the Falcons will be without Devonta Freeman this week as well.  Chancellor's injury hurts more long term, but the Freeman in jury could be devastating for the Falcons against the 10th ranked rushing defense.

Byes:  Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
This was a difficult week for me to decide my "Big Bet" because nothing really jumped out at me except for the Thursday night game.  Not sure why I am taking this game except for the performance last week by the Cowboys.  Other games under consideration were the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills.

Last Week's Record: 7-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  71-69-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($125)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($585)

Picks of the Week

Exactly even last week, which those that gamble know is a losing week.  Still up for the season after two weeks, so no complaints yet.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at San Francisco 49ers
Although picking Los Angeles goes against almost everything smart (don't pick road intra-divisional favorites; don't pick the road team on Thursdays for starters), and the fact that San Francisco played Seattle close on the road in a 12-9 defeat, which I think says more about Seattle than San Francisco.  I am going with the Rams.  Boy did I talk myself out of a win.

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars in London
Two road teams travelling five time zones.  Nobody has any idea what is going to happen here, so I am picking the team that should be better.

Chicago Bears +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Let's be clear, Pittsburgh is going to win this game.  The only question is does Chicago lose like in week 1 against Atlanta, or do they lose like in week 2 against Tampa.  Since they are home, I like the similarities in week 1.  Antonio Brown could have a big, big game.

Denver Broncos -3 at Buffalo Bills
West coast team going east and playing the early games are usually suicide for gamblers.  But, Denver isn't quite west coast, so the extra hour helps them cover.  Trevor Siemian has been more than competent in the first two games and C.J. Anderson is averaging 100 yards per game.  Buffalo's defense has been stout this year, though giving up only 235 yards per game.  Still, I like Denver.

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Given how both team's defenses have played so far this year, this could be a shootout.  Believe it or not, that favors Carolina as increased passing attempts lead to a key interception at the end of the game.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Detroit Lions
Detroit is much improved and could seriously challenge for a playoff spot this year.  But, Detroit's pass defense is only 19th in the league, and Matt Ryan is 3-1 against Detroit.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Indianapolis Colts
So far, I truly believe the Colts are the worst team in the league, and since this is basically a pick 'em, I don't care that I am giving up points on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 at Minnesota Vikings
Once again, basically a pick 'em.  Minnesota, with or without Bradford, would have a hard time against this Buccaneers defense.  Dalvin Cook could be really special, and he is going to have to be today in order for the Vikings to have any chance whatsoever.

New England Patriots -13 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Look for New England to keep rolling.  The Texans do not have the speed at the skill positions that Kansas City had, so they will not be able to put pressure on the Patriots defense.  New England in a rout.

Miami Dolphins -6 at New York Jets
I hate picking road favorites, especially in intra-divisional games, but both New York's and Miami's passing defenses are atrocious.  Only Miami - with Devante Parker and Jarvis Landry - is poised to take advantage of this flaw.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. New York Giants
The Giants are in the handful of worst teams in the league.Philadelphia is the third ranked passing offense and the fifth ranked offense in the league.  If they can find a steady running game, they could be dangerous.  The Giants have no running game whatsoever.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has major problems on offense, and it starts with the offensive line.  The Seahawks are 30th in passing yards and 27th in total offense.  Tennessee, behind DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry are 6th in the league in rushing and 7th overall.  Seattle has a hard time scoring averaging 10.5 a game.  Tennessee doesn't, averaging 26.5.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals 
Andy Dalton - even when he was going good - always seemed to be a bit off.  Now, Bengals fans are already chanting for A.J. McCarron.  I assume Brent Musberger is as well.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Los Angeles Chargers
Kareem Hunt versus the 26th ranked rushing defense in the league.

Oakland Raiders -3 at Washington Racists
Honestly, I figure that since I am already picking a few road favorites, why not just keep picking them.  Washington's pass defense is 26th in the league, and Oakland has a few weapons, namely Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Yes, another road favorite, and I am not happy about this.  But, Carson Palmer is playing like he retired 3 seasons ago, and without David Johnson, this team is hanging together only by a good string of duct tape.

Big Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. New York Giants
The Giants are in the handful of worst teams in the league.Philadelphia is the third ranked passing offense and the fifth ranked offense in the league.  If they can find a steady running game, they could be dangerous.  The Giants have no running game whatsoever.

My other choices were intra-divsional road favorites (Miami/Tampa Bay), so I am taking the home team Philadelphia Eagles.  Miami and Tampa Bay should be locks as well.

Last Week's Record:  8-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  16-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($275)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  $15