Picks of the Week - NFL Week 17

 

I followed up my worst week of the year with ...  MY ABSOLUTE BEST.  Seriously, a dream week.  Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see.  Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)

Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys

By now, this should be a familiar refrain:  "Home Team on a Short Week!"  But, we get to couple this one with another:  "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!"  And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I do not want to make this pick.  AT ALL!  I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog.  So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes.  But, if I did, this would be THAT game.

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row).  But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing).  So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win.  The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.

New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns

Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season.  The Cardinals, however, have not.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often.  It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.

New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game.  And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anyone even care about this game?  The Falcons probably don't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

This is A LOT of points.  And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away.  KC can keep it under two touchdowns!

Last Week Record: 12-4

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 16

 

Worst week of the year, and that is all I am going to say.  OUCH!  (Well, besides "OUCH").

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams are the best team in football right now, and Puka Nacua might be the most underrated star in the game.  BUT, picking the Rams would violate two betting rules:  (1) Home team on a short week; and (2) Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle.  So, I can live with picking the team I think is the second-best team in the NFL right now (at least until Sam Darnold gets into the playoffs).

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I hate, nay, I HATE!!!, this pick.  But see the above analysis.  I guess I will just hope that the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL can keep this game close.  UGH!

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Another short week, home, intra-divisional underdog.  Only this time the "favorites" were about 4 feet from losing to the Bears two weeks ago and since have lost their best player (Micah Parsons) and most exciting receiver (Christian Watson) to injury. 

 

Buffalo Bills -10 at Cleveland Browns

Double digits are a lot of points to give to a team with the 3rd best defense (and best against the pass) in the NFL.  But last week was a crucial turning point for the Bills in their comeback win against New England, and the Browns, who got blown out by the Bears.  Last week may have cemented each teams' fate for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers +1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I make this pick solely on the fact that I think Justin Herbert has to be healed a bit from his hand surgery by now (as he has not looked great the past two weeks playing with an injury), and based on the fact that Dallas is in the central time zone not the eastern time zone.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle, with first place in the NFC South on the line!

 

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at New York Giants

If we get last week's Minnesota Vikings, this game will not even be close.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This game will cement Travis Kelce's retirement.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins gave a potential playoff berth a helluva run, but that ended Monday night in dramatic fashion, and this team will likely lose its spirit as well.  Plus, this is a short week for them, and Joe Burrow might be auditioning for trade value.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

I am not sold that last week was the breakout that we have all been waiting for from the Broncos offense, and these two teams are remarkably even statistically (Jaguars 17th in Total Offense and 9th in Total Defense; Broncos 15th in Total Offense and 8th in Total Defense).  So, I'll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Falcons are just better, for whatever that means.  Although, Jacoby Brissett has had a great run as QB1.  If the Cardinals are smart, they are re-thinking Kyler Murray.

Houston Texans -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Kenny Pickett is very aptly named.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Is it time for Detroit to make a push for the playoffs - and man will they be dangerous should they make it - or is it time for Pittsburgh to end a team's playoff possibilities two weeks in a run?  I lean to the former, and given that Pittsburgh is on a short week, I'll take the Lions offense, which is way better than what Pittsburgh saw last week.

New England Patriots +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I fully expect the Patriots to bounce-back after last week's crushing comeback loss to the Bills.  Although the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt (as they are only 1 game behind the Steelers), this might not be the week they catch up.  The last week against Pittsburgh does loom large, though, if the Ravens can keep pace with Pittsburgh).  So, given the implications, Baltimore may win, but New England keeps it VERY close.

San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers' comeback is a very sweet story, but he really didn't play that great.  Definitely not sure that the Colts' offense can keep up with San Francisco, which has scored under 26 only once since November 2.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Well, since New Orleans has screwed me over 2 weeks ago picking against them, let's see if the former trend continues (screwing me over) or the latter (winning two in a row) becomes a streak.

Last Week Record: 5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 104-118-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($975)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,895)