Picks of the Week - Super Bowl Sunday!

 

An absolute shambles of a season, and I do not expect this Super Bowl to be any different.  Hoping to find some really good-looking prop bets to try to salvage something for the year!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 1/2 V. Seattle Seahawks

Let's be honest here, Seattle is by far the better team.  But, New England does have a really good defense of its own (4th in Scoring Defense, 8th in Total Defense).  And, given that this spread moved an extra point overnight in Seattle's favor, I will take it.

 

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45 1/2

Tough - and I mean Tough defenses.  Both of their averages on the season total 36 points given up.

Charlie Puth National Anthem UNDER 119 minutes

Why not?!

Interception on Playing Starting in the Red Zone -160 (Bet $160 to win $100)

Had to take this bet given the Super Bowl history between the two teams.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Kayshon Boutte OVER 2 1/2 receptions

Somebody will have to catch the ball, and I expect the Seahawks will take away Stefon Diggs as much as possible.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 4 1/2 rushing yards

Seattle will find ways to utilize this weapon, and a couple of jet sweeps might do it.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 32 1/2 receiving + rushing yards

See above.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Total Field Goals Made OVER 3 1/2

See above!

Hunter Henry OVER 38 1/2 receiving yards

A lot of checkdowns today!

Trayveon Henderson OVER 4 Receiving yards

This could be just one reception!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seattle is THE best team today, and it isn't even close.  The Patriots barely beat the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham starting at QB.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Last Week Record: 5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 18-18 

Playoff Big Bet:  2-4

Year-to-Date Record: 144-158-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 8-16

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $375

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($453.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,453.20)

Picks of the Week - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

This season has been a shit-show, so last weekend should have been no surprise, even with a great start to the playoffs in the Wildcard Round.  I am not going to waste a lot of my time on this, since I know how it is going to turn out anyway.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

New England Patriots -210 Moneyline (Bet $210 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

If I think they are going to cover a 3 1/2 points spread on the road, I damn sure am going to pick them to win outright.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos UNDER 43 1/2

Tough defenses and a backup quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks -2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Seattle has - by far - played the best of any team in the NFL this entire season.  The Rams were at that level at one point, and are amazing offensively (1st in Passing Offense, 1st in Scoring Offense, 2nd in Total Offense and 7th in Rushing Offense), which it will need in going against the toughest defense in the NFL to score against.

Seattle Seahawks -135 Moneyline (Bet $135 to win $100) v. Los Angeles Rams

Just like in the early game, if I think they are going to cover the spread, I should pick them to win outright.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

The Bo Nix injury at least made it so I don't have to even think about this choice.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

I am hoping for at least one really good, fun, close game this weekend - I hope it is this one.

Last Week Record: 1-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-2

Playoff Record: 13-17 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-3

Year-to-Date Record: 139-157-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-15

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1440)

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($828.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,928.20)

NFL REGULAR SEASON REVIEW

 

The NFL regular season is over, and the playoffs will soon (5 days) be upon us.  So before that begins, let us take a look at the regular season as a whole, and what each team needs to address in the offseason. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (14-3) Took control of this division after a week 5 win at Buffalo, and never looked back.  This team could use a Wide Receiver/Tight End playmaker to take it over the top, given Stefon Diggs' volatility and legal problems.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) The Bills went 3-1 in the last quarter, but still just don't look sharp.  A big-play receiver and a strong run-stuffing DT should be the focus in the offseason.

Miami Dolphins (7-10) Quinn Ewers looks OK and could be serviceable - maybe more - as a starter.  The Dolphins need to get rid of Tua's contract and focus on finding strong, stable offensive lineman.

New York Jets (3-14)

Horrible year for the Jets.  They need a foundational quarterback above everything else.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

The Steelers went 3-1 to cement the AFC North title on the last day.  Despite making the playoffs, they need to focus on a lot; wide receiver to run with D.K. Metcalf, offensive lineman to improve the running game, and an improved secondary.

Baltimore Ravens (8-9)

Injuries to Lamar Jackson hurt this season.  That and a horrible secondary led to their demise.  They should focus on a veteran corner, and a young, talented corner in the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)

Another team just crippled by injuries.  They need to focus on a big defensive tackle and linebackers.

Cleveland Browns (5-12)

Cleveland had a very good 2024 draft:  Mason Graham DT, Carson Schewsinger (LB), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Harold Fannin, Jr. (TE), and Shadeur Sanders (QB) all hit.  They primarily need to focus on obtaining a playmaker for Sanders at WR, and protection as well in the OL.

 

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

What a year.  Might focus on a big-play corner or pass rusher.

Houston Texans (12-5)

They have won 9 in a row!!!  Certainly clicking at the right time.  Team should focus on a dynamic running back, and nobody would be mad at offensive linemen.

Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

Lost seven straight to end the season without Daniel Jones.  Offseason focus should be on bolstering the secondary and another pass rusher to complement Laiatu Latu.

Tennessee Titans (3-14)

The focus should be on playmakers and protection for Cam Ward, who looks legitimate despite being on a last-place team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (14-3)

Finished the year out 3-1 to secure home-field advantage in the AFC.  They need to focus on a dynamic running back, and a playmaker at receiver.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers remain dangerous as they enter the playoffs.  They are solid in every phase, so they just need to focus on adding talent at any position that is available to them.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

The Chiefs finished 0-4 without Patrick Mahomes due to injury.  They need to focus on an every-down running back, a possession receiver with hands to compliment Rashee Rice, and replacement for Travis Kelce!(?)

Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

Earning the number 1 pick in the draft gifts them Fernando Mendoza.  They need to focus on a coaching staff that can unlock his best qualities and develop him into a star, and protect him with lineman.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

Not the same team as last year, but they could still make a run.  The team needs to focus on the passing game.  They have the players, so maybe a new passing-game coordinator, or offensive coordinator?

Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)

This team has more talent than their record.  After waiving Trevon Diggs, they really need to focus on the secondary, at corner and safety.  A pass rusher wouldn't hurt either.

Washington Commanders (5-12)

A healthy Jayden Daniels would mean the world to this team.  Offseason focus should be on a complimentary playmaker to Terry McLaurin, and improvement to the secondary.

New York Giants (4-13)

The first overall pick would have been nice, but that didn't happen.  They need a big-time playmaking wide receiver, some receiver depth, and a run-stuffing defensive tackle and linebacker on the defensive side of the ball.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (11-6)

This season has exceeded expectations for the Bears, and despite obvious holes in the team, they do not quit.  Their focus in the offseason should be on a top pass rusher to compliment Montez Sweat, and linebacker talent (either inside or for coverage - whichever help is available).

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)

Lost a few down the stretch -  including to the Bears - to gift the Bears the division. Still really talented, the team should focus on a true number 1 receiver (I feel they have a bunch of good, not great receivers), and perhaps some linebacking help.

Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

An up-and-down year for the Vikings.  They need to focus on whether J.J. McCarthy is really it.  If so, figure out what works for him because they have the playmakers.  Perhaps some offensive lineman and interior defenders to round-out the roster.

Detroit Lions (9-8)

Disappointing season for the Lions.  They need to focus on acquiring a secondary pass rusher, and maybe some secondary help.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers (8-9)

Snuck into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.  They need a lot of help.  With some talent here, they should focus on loading up on both lines.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

Missed the playoffs despite defeating Carolina in the last week of the season.  They need to focus on secondary help as well as some young blood on offense.  A pass rusher would help too.

Atlanta Falcons (8-9)

The dreaded loser in the three-team tiebreaker.  Running game is sound, passing game decent when Michael Penix and Drake London are healthy.  Some strong lineman (offensive and defensive) should be the focus this offseason.

New Orleans Saints (6-11)

The Saints went 3-1 in the last quarter.  They need to focus on a young Alvin Kamara replacement to grow with Tyler Shough, and lineman to pave the way for that running back (and protect Shough).

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The best team in the league.  Very solid in all phases.  They should maybe focus on a block/catch TE and a pass rusher.

Los Angeles Rams (11-3)

Another really solid team, finishing off a solid year.  Maybe a shut-down corner or a pass rusher.

San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Easily the best division in football.  San Francisco should focus on secondary help and linebacker help/depth.  Fred Warner is not going to last forever.

Arizona Cardinals (3-14)

Winless in the last quarter.  They need literally everything.  They should focus on deciding whether Kyler Murray is their long-term QB first, and then just grab as much talent as possible anywhere on the field.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the three-quarter point)

1.  Seattle Seahawks 14-3 (4)

2.  San Francisco 49ers 14-3 (7)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 14-3 (3)

4.  New England Patriots 14-3 (1)

5.  Denver Broncos 14-3 (2)

6.  Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 (10)

7.  Houston Texans 12-5 (12)

8.  Buffalo Bills 12-5 (9)

9.  Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 (6)

10.  Chicago Bears 11-6 (8)

11.  Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 (13)

12.  Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (16)

13.  Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 (5)

14.  Detroit Lions 9-8 (11)

15.  Minnesota Vikings 9-8 (22)

16.  Baltimore Ravens 8-9 (21)

17. Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (24)

18.  Carolina Panthers 8-9 (17)

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 (15)

20.  Indianapolis Colts 8-9 (14)

21.  Dallas Cowboys 7-9-1 (18)

22.  Miami Dolphins 7-10 (20)

23.  New Orleans Saints 6-11 (29)

24.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 (19)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 (23)

26.  Cleveland Browns 5-12 (25)

27.  Washington Commanders 5-12 (26)

28.  New York Giants 4-13 (31)

29.  Tennessee Titans 3-14 (30)

30.  Arizona Cardinals 3-14 (28)

31.  Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 (32)

32.  New York Jets 3-14 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Minnesota Vikings +7, Atlanta Falcons +7, New Orleans Saints +6, Green Bay Packers -8, Indianapolis Colts -6, Baltimore Ravens -5, Kansas City Chiefs -5

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Drake Maye is right there

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns - Not even close

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers Tyler Shough closing FAST!

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns - Pearce and Emmanwori next

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars - And this isn't even close, but Vrabel will win

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts - Who knew he was this good or important?

Comeback Player of the Year - Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers - Back to Form

And yes, I know the NFL does the MVP, then Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.  I don't care.

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 7

 

In short, I have no idea what is going on this year, and neither do you!  That is all.  That is the preamble for this week.  I got nothing!  I will say that I am just going to stick to the betting rules and see what happens for a couple of weeks.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Yeah, this will be fun.  Taking the team with the worst offense and the second to worst defense in Cincinnati.  Literally 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense.  But then again, Pittsburgh is 30th in offense and 27th in defense.  So, maybe this isn't awful taking a home underdog in an intra-divisional game and the home team on a short week - especially since it is the same team.  Go Joe Flacco, I guess?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams (in London)

There are a whole lot of Londoners that probably believe Blake Bortles should be in the Hall of Fame, as the Jaguars always play great in their adopted home city.  Matthew Stafford is playing great this year - top 3 in the MVP right now for me - but both teams score about the same amount of points (23.3 for Rams and 23.2 for Jacksonville), so I will take the points.  Also note, underdogs have done really well overseas this year, not just against the spread.

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Hey, they Bears have won 2 consecutive games 25-24, so they have the ability to keep the games close.  And, both of those were on the road.  But, they are on a short week and Spencer Rattler is showing some signs of life as a starting NFL quarterback.  Bears win, but maybe this time 24-20?

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game feels like it should be 6 1/2 points, especially since we have no earthly idea how the Titans are going to react to the Brian Callahan firing.  This could actually fire up the players.  But, the Patriots are in first place in the division, and they have to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs given the state of the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This pick is all about defense:  Miami's is 30th in Total Defense (20th in Pass Defense; 32nd in Rush Defense; and 29th in Scoring Defense), whereas Cleveland's is 2nd in Total Defense (7th in Pass Defense; 3rd in Rush Defense and 21st in Scoring Defense).  Loser of this game loses its coach!

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 at New York Jets

Carolina is 3-3 and on a 2-game winning streak.  The Jets are winless.  Carolina is doing this with defense (7th in Total Defense and 9th against the rush), which could help against the lone bright spot for the Jets - its 5th-ranked rushing offense.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I like Minnesota a lot better with Carson Wentz than with J.J. McCarthy, especially behind the 6th ranked defense (5th in scoring).  Philadelphia is a good team, but nowhere near as good as their reputation as the defending champion.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are rounding into form.  A double-digit favorite against a division rival form, probably not, but what the hell.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. New York Giants

Once again, it is defense as Denver is 4th in Total Defense, 6th in Rushing Defense, 4th in Passing Defense, and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Nick Bonitto for MVP!

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I'll admit it; I am late to the Indianapolis Colts train, and I still might not be there.  And, I am a big fan of the Chargers' potential this year.  BUT, the Colts are a ridiculously balanced offensive team (5th in passing yards and 6th in rushing yards), and score the most points in the league.  And, although the defense isn't great, it is the 4th stingiest to score upon, even if they do give up yards.  So, the I will take the fact that they are getting points here.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Listen, I DO NOT LIKE THIS BET.  But, the Commanders are on a short week and the Cowboys are at home getting points to an intra-divisional opponent.  I'll take them.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

After starting off 2-0 (against the Saints and Panthers mind you) the Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak.  I expect that to continue as this Cardinals team is not good.  The Packers didn't look great last week, but they won handily, and I expect them to do the same here.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Fred Warner hurts this squad - literally and figuratively - but I expect San Francisco to rally just like they have all year in replacing almost everybody to injury at some point already.  Plus, Atlanta is on a short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Detroit Lions

First off, this is way too many points the way the Buccaneers have been playing.  This should be about a 2 1/2 point line.  So, I will take the extra 3 points.  And, Tampa's offense is humming behind Baker Mayfield (7th in passing and 6th in scoring.  And, the 5th-rated rush defense could potentially hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check.  I expect this game to be fun to watch, and close.  When it's close, I will gladly take points.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

I am doing it.  Seattle at home on Monday night.  Crowd should be electric.  I'll take it.

Last Week Record:  5-10

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  40-53

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($765)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($2,505) 

Picks of the Week

 

With no preseason, and only sporadic reports from various training camps, I expected disaster in week 1, and although I finished down, it was virtually a .500 week.  Now, I know it is easy to overexaggerate week's 1 performances, but with a bit more of knowledge than this time last week, I am excited about entering this week's picks.  Of course, I wrote this before looking at the points spreads.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Cleveland Browns
Generally I try to take the home team on the Thursday night's game, but for some reason I feel like something was wrong in Cleveland.  Now, the Browns' offense woke up, but I am happy to take the back-door cover thanks to a Joe Burrow, who definitely looks like he belongs in this league.

Chicago Bears - 5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Giants go on the road after playing Monday night is the primary reason why I am taking my beloved Bears.  Plus, Robert Quinn is making his season debut, which should help free up some more space for Khalil Mack on defense. Now, perhaps the Chicago offensive coaching staff can actually put in an up-tempo offensive, perhaps with a bit of no huddle, as that is clearly where Trubisky operates best.

Carolina Panthers + 8 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina acquitted themselves very well asgainst what I think is going to be a very good Raiders team.  Tampa Bay didn't fare very well last week, but a lot of teams are going to look that bad against the Saints (Brady Pick 6 to Janoris Jenkins!!!).  Buccaneers playing without Chris Godwin this week, and with McCaffrey, the Panthers can control the ball so that this score does not get out of control.  I will take the 8 1/2.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville surprised the league last week taking down the Colts at home.  This week, they travel to Nashville, where the Titans are coming off a lackluster win against Denver on Monday night.  I am taking the points because of the Titans' short week.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas did not look very good against Aaron Donald and the Rams, so I look for them to try to break out against the Falcons, especially targeting rooking cornerback A.J. Terrell (who does look promising, but he is a rookie).  Atlanta had 3 separate 100 yard receivers last week.  That might be too much for the Cowboys to have to cover.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers is on a mission this year and Detroit might not be over last week's loss to the Bears, having given up 3 touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Yes the Colts have a deep running back room, but the injury to Marlon Mack is going to make a difference.  There is no shame in losing to the Packers for the Vikings, but the Colts lost to a Jaguar team that is supposed to be horrid.

Miami Dolphins +6 v. Buffalo Bills

Miami is not very good, but I feel that Buffalo might catch South Beach Fever AND be overconfident.  This has all the makings of a Ryan Fitzpatrick backdoor cover.

New York Jets +7 v. San Francisco 49ers

I hate, HATE, making this pick.  But if there is one thing that I have learned over time is that you win way more than you lose by following the rules.  Of course, these aren't guarantees, they are about 66% sure, but that is a good percentage.  So, although the 49ers are WAY better than the Jets and could win this one by a ton, I am betting against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  UGH!!!  - You know what, nope.  I took the road team on Thursday against the rules, so I am changing this pick to ...

San Francisco 49ers -7 at New York Jets.

Still Ugh!

Los Angeles Rams + 1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I mean, while I am breaking rules, right?  Keep it going.  Seriously, last week the Eagles offensive line looked horrible.  And that is a big, big problem going against the Rams.  Aaron Donald absolutely dominated the Cowboys offensive line, which itself is a magnitude greater than that of the Rams.  I do not think that I am better than the rules, but what the hell.  It is week 2.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Denver Broncos

The Steelers defense should be able to tee-off on the Broncos offense that looked pretty meager against the Titans last week.  The Steelers rushing game behind James Conner and/or Benny Snell, Jr. should be able to control enough of this game to win by 2 touchdowns.  This is a battle of two teams that played Monday night, so both are on a short week.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. Washington Football Team

Arizona is going to be really, really good this year.  Washington surprised the Eagles (and me) last week, but Arizona is going to have a much better offense than Philadelphia.  I am just happy that I do not have to type "Washington Racists".

Baltimore Ravens -7 at Houston Texans

I don't give points of a touchdown or more lightly (especially in two consecutive games).  And, it is no shame for the Texans to have lost to Kansas City, but what concerns me with Houston is that they absolutely just did not try to throw the ball deep at all in that game, essentially just allowing all of the defensive backs to pinch up closer to the receivers.  That and Baltimore's running game (including Jackson) should be enough to cover this spread.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Los Angeles Chargers

Until they prove me worng.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. New England Patriots
The Seahawks are just better.  And at home.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

No Michael Thoma, and yes the Raiders are going to be good this year.  Plus, the energy at the first home game in Vegas will be virtually nonexistent thanks to Covid, but the team is probably going to be psyched.

Big Bet

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. New England Patriots
The Seahawks are just better.  And at home.

I really wanted to select Baltimore for the second week in a row, but they are on the road

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  7-8-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($30) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($30)

Picks of the Week

Well, week 17 was a total crapshoot.  Now we are on to the playoffs, with the wildcard round starting today.  That means the below rules apply to the over/under bet as well as to the pick via the point spread.  I will also be picking each game via the money line, and the money line rules will apply.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense.  I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league.  So, they are overrated.  I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.

Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above.  In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well.  Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright.  Why?  Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win.  That makes me leery.  But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.

Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense.  The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.

New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line.  Just hate it.  But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright.  The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas.  Who does Minnesota have to cover him?  Don't worry, I'll wait.

Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one.  Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco.  Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.

Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs

Big Bet I

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2

The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.

Big Bet II

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots

Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($900)

NFL Wild Card Roundtable

Pepster:  It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen, where the best of the best football players in the world start the competition for Super Bowl Champion.  That's right, it's Wildcard Weekend, with four (almost) scintillating competitions that begin this afternoon.  Let's jump right it, and we will take the games in the order that they will be played.  First up:  Oakland and Houstson.

Sinickal:  Excuse me?  That is the first playoff game of the year?  Can we just fast forward to next week?

Hopps:  I probably won't even watch.

Pepster:  OK,I hear you.  So we don't start off with the most attractive of matchups, especially given the Brock Osweiler/Conner Cook quarterback competition.  Which sounds like something that should be said during training camp for third string.

Hopps:  This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that a quarterback will be making his first career start in the postseason.  Good luck Conner Cook, you are going to need it.

Sinickal:  The over/under on Cook completions should be 2.

Pepster:  That might be a little low, so I'll take that over, but the Texans did finish the season with the number one defense in terms of total yards (but 11th in points).  Good thing for them that they are a whopping 29th in total yards on offense (but they are T28th in points).

Hopps:  Speaking of Houston's defense, I predict that Michael Crabtree will get his chain snatched again.

Sinickal:  That is where we disagree.  Crabtree will be wearing a padlock around his neck.  That might slow him down a bit, though.

Pepster, Sinickal, Hopps (in unison):  Texans.

Pepster:  Let's turn to tonight's game in Seattle as the Seahawks  host the Detroit Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had by most standards, a helluva year, especially given the retirement of Calvin Johnson and virtually every running back on the team.

Sinickal:  Stafford will break his thumb on this throwing hand - because that's what the Lions do.

Hopps:  The Lions haven't won a playoff game since Barry Sanders.  BARRY SANDERS.

Pepster:  Well, both of those may be true, but this isn't the same Seahawks team as the previous few years.  They struggled early (boring close win [12-10] over the Dolphins in week 1 when the Dolphins started pre-retirement Arian Foster), they struggled late (losing at home to Arizona in week 16 and barely beating a despicably bad San Francisco team 25 - 23 in week 17).  They just haven't been the same since Earl Thomas went out.  Part of what makes the "Legion of Boom" great is all of them collectively, and Thomas is likely the best.

Sinickal and Hopps (in unison):  BUT IT'S THE LIONS!

Pepster:  I am going with Detroit.  Stafford throws for 330 and 3 touchdowns.

Sinckal and Hopps:  HA! HA! HA!

Sinickal:  Wait, you're serious?

Hopps:  Given me Seattle.

Sinickal:  Me too.  Good luck with that.

Pepster:  Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more enticing that the dreck we have tonight.  Let's go to the early game where the Miami Dolphins are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers are a 10 point favorite.  Now, honestly, this I do not understand.  The Dolphins defeated the Steelers earlier this season - albeit at home - after knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game.  Their defense bottled up Le'Veon Bell nicely, who only gained 53 yards rushing (+55 yards receiving).  Should this really be a 10 point spread.

Sinickal:  Well, Matt Moore is pretty nice as far as backup quarterbacks go, but I think Ryan Tannehill gets into this game for at least one snap just so he can say he played in a playoff game.  Come to think of it, so will Brock Osweiler!

Hopps:  Not that I am a big Tom Savage fan, but GOOD GOD - BROCK OSWEILER.

Pepster:  Anyway - let's get back to the Dolphins/Steelers game.

Sinickal:  Pittsburgh, easy.

Hopps:  I concur.

Pepster:  It's unanimous.  Steelers.  Primarily because I do not want to see the Dolphins play at New England next week.  Last game, New York Giants at 11-5 travel to the higher seeded Green Bay Packers at 10-6.  Predictions?

Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is pushed out at the sideline for a first down in the second quarter next to Eli Manning, where the two set into a heated squabble over who is the greatest playoff QB ever. Strangely missing from that conversation is Joe Montana.

Hopps:  Well, the last two times the Giants went to Green Bay they went on to win a Super Bowl.  Eli has a much better post season record in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.

Pepster:  Guys, are we really getting into the minutiae of which quarterback is better in one specific stadium?

Sinickal:  I didn't mean for us to get into that discussion, I just think Eli and Aaron will.

Hopps:  I will get into any argument I want.

Pepster:  Well, I will never give any credit to Aaron Rodgers, so to try to seem neutral, I will compliment Green Bay's left tackle, David Bakhtiari who, with all apologies to Tyron Smith, was the best left tackle in football this year.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  No, that is Baltimore Ravens guard John Urschel, who while playing in the NFL just started pursuing his Ph.D. in Mathematics at M.I.T., was named to Forbes "30 under 30" list in the field of science, has had six peer reviewed mathematics papers (with 3 more ready for review), and he specializes in spectral graph theory, numerical linear algebra and machine learning.

Sinickal:  I was talking about you!

Hopps:  Well, you both have points there.

Pepster:  So, who is going to win?

Hopps:  Giants.

Sinickal:  Packers.

Pepster:  Green Bay has gone through Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Knile Davis, John Kuhn, Christine Michael at Running Back, and even Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett thought about coming out of retirement before they settled on Tight End Ty Montgomery as their go-to tailback.  They still have a better rushing attack then the Giants.  Packers.

Any last thoughts

Sinickal:  Can we just get to next week?

Hopps:  So you can watch my Cowboys?

Sinickal:  Dope.

Pepster:  See everyone here next week.

Picks of the Week

Picked 3 of the 4 winners last week, but unfortunately, missed most of the spreads.  So I am changing my rules a bit.  I will be counting the straight up  money line bets as well as the spread for the playoffs.  This isn't just because of last week, but because there are only four games this week, and less going forward.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at New England
I know that we are never supposed to doubt Belichick and Brady, but this New England team is really beat up, plus, Kansas City is solid in every aspect of the game.   Sure the Maclin injury huts, but they rely less on 1 single person than any team in the league.

Arizona v. Green Bay
It is chic to say that Green Bay's offense is back after last week, but they didn't play Arizona last week.

Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers
They played a fairly even game earlier in the year, and Seattle's offensive line, and team, are playing much better now.

Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think any starters remain on Pittsburgh's offense.

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at New England Patriots
If I expect Kansas City to win outright, then they have to cover, right?

Green Bay Packers + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay is playing better than earlier in the year, especially Aaron Rodgers.  I look for Mike McCarthy to try to run the ball more and keep Arizona's offense off the field.  It won't be enough to win.  Carson Palmer should be getting a lot of consideration for MVP (along with Cam Newton).

Seattle Seahawks + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
As in the Kansas City game, I think the underdog is going to win outright.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
For this game to stay close, Pittsburgh's defense is going to have to outscore Denver's offense.  Won't happen.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Nobody is playing for Pittsburgh.

Last Week's Winners:  3-1
Playoff Winners to Date:  3-1
Last Week's Record:  4-7
Playoff Record:  4-7

Year-to-Date Record: 128-116-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-5
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($535)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $795

Picks of the Week

An exhilarating (and money-making) way to finish up the NFL regular season by going 11-5, and only a play or two away from 13-3!!!

I will make my regular picks using the spread and count that toward my yearly totals.  I will also attempt to select just the winners of the games themselves.  I will do this first in the column, but these bets will not count against my yearly running total.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
The Golden State Warriors are the only hotter team in North American sports.  Alex Smith is actually good, and the fact that Jamal Charles is hurt has only diversified and improved the Chiefs offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals
I am not confident in this pick at all, as this game could go either way.  I just think that Roethlisberger's experience will help Pittsburgh when it counts in the fourth quarter.

Seattle Seahawks over Minnesota Vikings
Seattle is easily the best team in this game, and it isn't even close.

Washington Racists over Green Bay Packers
Because I can't select all four visiting teams (although watch Green Bay win and Cincinnati be the lone home team to be victorious).

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Houston Texans +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are overall the better team and they are getting Lamar Houston back, perhaps their best defender and definitely their best pass rusher, so they should win the game; however, Houston's defense is no slouch and they are at home getting points, so this game should be close.  It will be interesting to see which receiver makes the most big plays, Jeremy Maclin or DeAndre Hopkins.  Hopefully this games ends with a late Travis Kelce touchdown for Kansas City to take the lead, just so we can see what type of dance Kelce does (and for which nobody complains - YES I AM TALKING TO YOU CAM NEWTON HATERS).

Cincinnati Bengals + 1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Would it surprise anyone if this was a 1 point game?  No.  Would it surprise anyone if Cincinnati won?  No (even though I picked Pittsburgh to win outright).  That is why I am taking the home underdog.  A.J. McCarron can sling the ball downfield, and Pittsburgh's secondary is a bit suspect (remember the New England game earlier in the year?).

BONUS SELECTION - OVER 44 1/2
Both the Bengals and Steelers can score a lot against each other.

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Washington Racists -1 v. Green Bay Packers
I hate to do this to you Marcus, but Washington is actually playing much better ball than Green Bay right now, and GASP, Kirk Cousins is the better quarterback in this game (based upon their play this year only).  Green Bay has had problems running the ball, and they miss Jordy Nelson.  Washington spreads the ball around in the running and passing games, which could keep the Packers defense from keying in on any individual player.  Jordan Reed might be the best offensive player on the field tomorrow.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP

Alabama Crimson Tide -6 1/2 v. Clemson Tigers
Now, I have actually liked Clemson a lot this year, but I just think that the Alabama front 7 is so dominating that it will be tough for Clemson to get on track, whereas Clemson's best defensive lineman Shaq Lawson is injured.  Although he will play, if he isn't close to 100%, it will be hard for the Tigers.

BONUS SELECTION UNDER 50 1/2
Both defenses are better than the offenses that they are going against.  I see this game being something like 28-17 or 28-20.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Add to that the fact that although both quarterbacks are on the smaller side compared to the average NFL quarterbacks, Russell Wilson's hands are much, much bigger than Teddy Bridgewater's hands, which could make it difficult for the latter to get a good grip on the ball.  Expect a couple of bad throws from Bridgewater that either miss open receivers or float into the secondary for interceptions, and perhaps a fumble from a hit by Bennett.

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Year-to-Date Record: 124-109-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-4
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $700
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,330