Picks of the Week

Coming to the conclusion of fantasy football seasons, as this and next week end most normal leagues.  Good think that I have a few more weeks to continue building out of the hole in which I placed myself.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Damn Hook got me.

New York Giants +6 at Chicago Bears
There is no way that I am giving up almost a touchdown with Mitchell Trubisky right now.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.

Denver Broncos +4 at Buffalo Bills
Denver played the Minnesota Vikings tough last week on the road, losing only by four.  I know that each week is different in the  NFL, but I have to give some credence to the Broncos showing and take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is an intradivisional rivalry game, in which Pittsburgh is playing roughly zero of its starters.  OK, so not true on defense, but this game could end 6-0.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Miami has been playing tough.  I don't think Miami has a chance to win this game, but I could see it being 30-20.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
New Orleans has the third best rush defense, and given that Christian McCaffrey as a runner is one of the two offense weapons Carolina possesses - the other being Christian McCaffrey the receiver - New Orleans should beat Carolina handily.

New York Jets +3 v. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are a much better team, but the Jets are coming off two consecutive wins (albeit against the Washington Racists and New York Giants), and they are hosting a team travelling east and playing in the early game.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Despite the fact/betting rule that I just wrote about west coast teams travelling east and playing in the early game, Russell Wilson has been phenomenal in his career playing in the early game on the east coast, winning approximately 75% of the games.  Since Seattle is the betting underdog, I will take them to win.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Washington Racists
Jeff Driskel has been able to move the ball in the past two games, albeit mostly with his feet.  Given that Washington is 28th in the NFL against the run, Detroit should control the ball and win this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans
Just give me the points in this game.  I don't care which team is favored and why - just give me the points.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v Dallas Cowboys
Yes, something is amiss with this Patriots team, but the Cowboys have serious flaws also.  This game will be played in some serious weather conditions, which favors New England, and, the flu is rumored to be going through the Cowboys this week.  You know what else favors New England?  Bell Belichick over Jason Garrett.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers
Aaron Rodgers often plays big in prime time games.  And, despite the expected return of George Kittle, San Francisco is missing a tone of players in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Nobody loves Lamar Jackson as much as I, but Jalen Ramsey practically eliminates the deep passing game to receivers (M. Brown), and the defensive line eliminates the running backs.  That leaves Lamar's running, and short/intermediate passing to Mark Andrews.  That could win them the game, but this should be close..

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.
I really wanted to select the Jets here, but the Falcons have been playing great football since their coaching shakeup.

Last Week's Record:  6-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  78-85
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,170)

Picks of the Week

Now that "Tanking for Tua" isn't really an option, and since the NFL's sham workout for Colin Kaepernick was called out by Kaep, and he still tried out - with media - in front of 8 teams, it almost makes this weekend's games irrelevant.  Except, it is still the NFL!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cleveland Browns
I broke the early week rule and paid for it dearly, although not nearly as much as Myles Garrett did.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
DeShaun Watson versus Lamar Jackson.  Yes, I know they do not actually play against each other, but WOW am I looking forward to this game.  I hope it is close, so give me the points.

Carolina Panthers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
I honestly only think this because Atlanta has a comedown after destroying New Orleans last week.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Detroit Lions
Jeff Driskel.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
It might take a little while for Jacoby Brissett to get his sea legs.  I could probably say the same for Nick Foles, but only one of the two has a Super Bowl MVP.

Miami Dolphins +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This Dolphins team is actually playing really hard.  This game will be close.

Minnesota Vikings -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Branadon Allen.

New Orleans Saints -4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bounce-back week.

New York Jets +2 at Washington Racists
Adrian Peterson had a great game last week against a poor run defense.  The Jets have the NFL's second-best rush defense.

Arizona Cardinals +10 at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco just beat Arizona by 3 two weeks ago in Arizona.  Yes, this game is in San Francisco, but Arizona should still keep it close.

Oakland Raiders -11 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Can any non-fantasy football players name a Bengal?

New England Patriots -4 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I actually hate this line, and would hate either pick.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
Both teams have underperformed this  year, but the Rams are missing some offensive lineman.  Khalil Mack needs to control this game.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Los Angeles Chargers
I hate picking road favorites in intradivisional games, especially when one team is so up-and-down (the Chargers).  But, I feel even if Los Angeles gives Kansas City its best game, Kansas City is just too fast.

Byes:  Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -7 at Detroit Lions
Jeff Driskel.  I won my big bet last week giving up points to Jeff Driskel.  Hopefully I can do that again this week.  I wonder if the Lions think that Colin Kaepernick cannot play in the NFL while at the same time starting Jeff Driskel.

Last Week's Record:  7-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  72-77
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $190
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,040)

Picks of the Week

I could not put two winning weeks in a row.  This is getting ugly.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Home team, short week.

Oakland Raiders + 5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
Talk about a west coast team heading east, as this game is in London, but Oakland flew to London after last week's game, whereas the Bears arrived mid-week.  That is good for the Bears because it means Roquan Smith made the trip.  Oakland has been playing week.  I will take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Two mediocre teams that have been playing fairly well.  Jacksonville almost covered against Kansas City, so I will take the points here.  Minshew looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback, though the jury is still out on Kyle Allen.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
Definitely a game that I do not want to watch.  Arizona's defense is just a bit worse than Cincinnati's, so on that basis, and the fact that it is a west coast team (Arizona does not observe daylight savings time, so they are three hours behind the east) travelling east playing the early game.

Houston Texans -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
Houston is 12th in rushing, and 10th in scoring defense, so I will take that over Atlanta, which is third in passing offense, but that is mostly because they are always behind and have to pass.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well.  They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense.  At the very least they should keep this game close.

New York Giants +5 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This bet is a combination of the fact that I don't think the Vikings' internal turmoil and feud helps them, and the fact that I loathe road favorites.  Minnesota is the better team, I just don't think they are in the right mindset to truly show that.

Philadelphia Eagles -14 v. New York Jets
Why not? Double digit favorites have done great this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Taking points at home in an intra-divisional game, yes please.  Especially given that Lamar Jackson has come down to earth a bit, and the Steelers pass rush seems to be picking up steam.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Tennessee Titans
Although Tennessee was quite impressive last week, but this Buffalo defense is STOUT.  They are 7th in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage, 5th in scoring defense, 4th in passing defense and 2nd in total defense.

New England Patriots -16 at Washington Racists
You would have thought that I would have learned my lesson last week taking the Patriots on the road as a favorite (they won, but did not cover).  But, the Racists are going with Colt McCoy, and all the talk about firing Jay Gruden coupled with the release of the Jay Gruden smoking pot with young women may mean this team is not thinking about football.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Phillip Rivers is doing his thing, and Melvin Gordon's true return makes this offense even more potent.  But, the defense is also 9th in scoring defense and 10th in total defense, meaning, they should win this game and cover at home.

Green Bay Packers +3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas either did not take advantage of a huge opportunity to knock of an NFC rival last week, and the fact that game was 12-10, leads me to believe that either the Cowboys make a statement and blow out the Packers, or this game is close.  I think Aaron Rodgers keeps this close.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 v. Indianapolis Colts
Ordinarily I would select the Colts here, but their best defender is out of the game, so I am going to give up more points than I really want to do here.

Cleveland Browns +4 at San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland may have finally figured out how to keep everyone involved in the offense, and I think the bye week occurred at an inopportune time for San Francisco, as the time off this early in the season may affect the momentum they had after winning their first 3 games.

Big Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well.  They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense.  At the very least they should keep this game close.
Jameis Winston may have finally saved his job this season.


Last Week's Record:  6-9
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  28-35
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($555)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,080)

Picks of the Week

Finally a great week to stop the beginning of the season slide.  I would take going 11-5 every week, and I do mean every week.  But we can't this week because the byes start, so there are less games, making each game more important.  Which sucks because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thought Aaron Rodgers was going to throw that interception at the end of Thursday's game.  Puts me in a 0-1 hole.  Oh well, let's see how we do on Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Home team, short week.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams are surprisingly good defensively (Tennessee 6th and Atlanta 7th in Total defense), so I will take the points, especially if those points are going to the team that has looked marginally better than the other this season.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cleveland Browns
In the battle of the Cleveland Browns franchises, the old franchise has looked awesome this season, and the new franchise has looked, well, like the Browns.  Baltimore's defense is second against the run, meaning they can neutralize Nick Chubb, while offensively control the ball as the number 1 rushing club in the NFL.  Gimme the Ravens.

New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Julian Edelman has made the trip to Buffalo and although Buffalo has looked great in wins against bottom dwellers Jets, Giants and Bengals, not even a resurgent Frank Gore and the NFL's 5th best rushing offense will be happy to handle the league's best defense (#1 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, third down percentage and scoring defense).

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Detroit Lions
Yes, this is my third straight road favorite, but the undefeated Lions should get exposed against Kansas City as the explosive Chiefs and Pat Mahomes should feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense.

Houston Texans -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Houston has won two straight since their opening game loss to New Orleans, whereas the Panthers are coming off a solid win against Arizona after losing two straight.  Houston will keep there streak going as the Panthers will not be able to stop the Texans' rushing game.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I was initially going to pick Indianapolis before seeing the spread.  I really don't like this line, but I still feel compelled to give the points because Oakland is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, but also Indianapolis has looked really good this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -14 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Yes west coast team travelling east playing in an early game, but another rule trumps:  I am picking against the Dolphins until they show me they can cover any spread.  Miami is 0-3 so far against-the-spread this year, even though two of those spreads were over 20 points.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Racists
Ugh/  Please don't make me watch this game.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 at Chicago Bears
If last week's Bears offense is any indication of improvement (albeit against the Racists), this could be a really, REALLY good game.  I am gonna take the points in an intra-divisional game (and secretly hope that I lose this bet).

Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a gut feel, as the Seahawks have been up-and-down this year, playing poorly against bad teams (in wins against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and good against good teams (a loss to New Orleans).  None of their games have been decided by more than 6 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The undefeated Rams have been largely stagnant on offense this season (16th overall and 23rd in passing), whereas the Buccaneers have been surprisingly good on defense (6th in rush defense, 14th overall and 10th in 3rd down percentage).  Rams win, but Buccaneers keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville has seemed to play better given the Jalen Ramsey distraction, and Gardner Minshew II has a passer rating of 110.6 (as compared to Flacco's 87.4).  The Broncos - despite having Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, have 0 sacks this season.  If they do not put pressure on Minshew, he could be in line for a big road victory,so I will take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
This is the game the Cowboys should win if they want to be seriously considered as a Super Bowl contender.  Yes on the road, but an overall better roster given that Drew Brees is out.  Offensively Dallas is great AND balanced (#1 in third down conversions, #3 rush and total offense, #4 pass and scoring offense), whereas the Saints defense is the exact opposite (#20 3rd down conversions, #25 rush defense, #26 scoring defense, #28 total defense and #29 pass defense).

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I may not even watch this game.  Give me the points because Cincinnati is 3rd in pass offense and Pittsburgh is 30th in pass defense.  Ugh - horrible Monday night game.  At least it is likely one of these teams wins its first game of the season.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Patriots keep rolling and the Bills show they are not quite ready for prime time - but getting closer.

Last Week's Record:  11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  22-26
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $385
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($525)

Picks of the Week

Out of town today, and travelling tomorrow, so no time for analysis - just picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars 1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Dallas Cowboys -22 1/2 v.  Miami Dolphins
This line is too ridiculous and there is no reason to take it.  By the way, some betting sites have taken "Dolphins go 0-16" off the board.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bill's

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders +9 at Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots -22 1/2 v. New York Jets
Also too ridiculous a line to even exist.  Why not take it?

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Detroit Lions

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

New York Giants +6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston Texans +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

San Francisco 49ers  -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
I know, I know... no road favorites.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears -4 at Washington Racists

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Detroit Lions
Ezekiel Ansah will be playing his first game of the season ... but for Seattle, not Drtroit.

Last Week's Record:  7-9
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  11-21
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($910)

Picks of the Week

OK - so I got hammered to end the season, but I don't care because the playoffs are here.  Actually, I do care, but it is my own fault for rushing through the picks in about 10-15 minutes of time.  The playoffs is where I make my money (hopefully), and I am much more prepared for this.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Houston Texans
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts.  Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs.  Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis.  Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston.  These games are close, so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff.  I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott.  While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6).  If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.

Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright.  Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense.  Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over.  I can picture that type of score here.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers.  But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here.  Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.

Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game.  The under it is.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection.  First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss.  Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close.  Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback.  There, I said it.

Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate.  Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner).  The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense.  And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league.  Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense).  The Bears should win this game at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores

Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($880)

Picks of the Week

On vacation so I don't really have time to analyze my own picks, but it is week 17 so who knows who is actually going to play and for how long anyway.  Just going to wing it, before I have to pack and check out of my Air-BnB in Nashville. Place is hopping for tonight's game, though.  Lots of Colts fans in town.  Besides, all of the normal and usual betting rules are thrown out the window this week as each team will be playing with different motivations (qualify for the playoffs, don't get hurt for the playoffs, don't put too much on film for the playoffs, play backups to see if they are ready for next year, throw in the towel, etc.).

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +5 at Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Houston Texans -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

New Orleans -7 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers 

New York Giants -7 v. Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Oakland Raiders +14 at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at Washington Racists

Los Angeles Chargers -7 at Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers + 10 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Jets have been playing well since Sam Darnold's return, and this is not the normal Patriots.  The Patriots may still win and secure a playoff bye, but this should not be a runaway victory for them.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  118-111-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($215)

Picks of the Week

So I took a big old fashioned hammering last week, but I don't care.  Why is that?  Because the Chicago Bears clinched the NFC North, knocked the Packers out of the playoffs, and moved to within 1 game of having a first round playoff bye.  I will take that!  Now, I just have to make up for the losses this week!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -11 v. Washington Racists
I do not like this spread, but I do like taking the home team on short weeks.  Washington's offensive line is mightily banged up, so I expect Jurrell Casey to have a monster game along the defensive line.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 v. Baltimore Ravens
Once again taking the home team on a short week.  I just don't think that Baltimore has enough offense to keep up with the Chargers, despite the fact that they have more than enough defense (1st overall, 1st in points allowed, 3rd in passing defense ad 3rd in rushing defense).  Los Angeles has too many weapons, starting with Philip Rivers.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.

Cleveland Browns -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Because why not?  The Browns have played some exciting football, and Cincinnati has not, at least not with Jeff Driskel at quarterback.  Cleveland's porous defense will not be as exposed going against Jeff Driskel.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Would you believe it if I told you that Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the 28th rushing attack in the league?  Of course you would - they are horrible.  Being a one-dimensional offense is going to allow the Cowboys front seven to tee off on Winston.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Detroit Lions
The Lions literally don't do anything well.  Minnesota's offense has been spectacular since they fired OC Mike DeFilippo.  Thanks for mentioning this last week Barsky.

New York Giants +9 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This spread is way too big to give to a team that has shown some life as of late.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Is the Cody Kessler era over yet?

Buffalo Bills +12 1/2 at New England Patriots
The one thing Blake Bortles taught us last year is that a quarterback than knows how to scramble can create havoc with the Patriots defense.

New York Jets +3 v. Green Bay Packers
The Jets have actually been playing fairly well since Sam Darnold's return.  They lost by a touchdown last week to a much better Houston Texans team, and they are at home against the Packers.  I will take the points.

Houston Texans +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Houston's defense.  Yes, it seems like the magic that is Nick Foles has returned, but the Rams defense has not been playing particularly well this week.  Houston's is.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I already have enough road favorites, so why not take another.  A lot at stake for the Bears in this game as they have the opportunity to secure a first round playoff bye with two wins (and a Rams loss).

Arizona Cardinals +14 v. Los Angeles Rams
So, it looks the Rams will actually get home field advantage and nothing about Arizona's play says they should stay in this game.  So, perhaps they lose by 13.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
In Russell Wilson we trust and simply, Seattle needs this win more than Kansas City does.  Seattle keeps Kansas City's possessions low with an effective running game and takes a step closer to the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
At this stage, New Orleans can practically coast into the playoffs.  Of course they want to guarantee home field for the entire playoffs, which they can do with one win or one Rams loss and one Bears loss, but that doesn't mean the Saints aren't already looking ahead.  Steelers keep this one close.

Denver Broncos -3 at Oakland Raiders
Might as well end the week with another road favorite.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.
I hate picking road teams for the Big Bet, especially road favorites, but nobody even knows who is quarterbacking for the Panthers.  And, perhaps Atlanta re-discovered its offense last week.

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  111-103-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($765)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($185)

Picks of the Week

A winning week last week, brings me back into the black for the season.  As we head down the stretch in the final quarter of the season, time to capitalize on everything we have learned about the teams this year to date.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off, but this time with the added bonus of doing it against a Jacksonville team "led" by Cody Kessler.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New York Jets
Buffalo has basically been playing with Josh Allen behind center, even if he is doing it with his legs much more than his arm.  The Jets and their rookie quarterback have yet to jell this season.

Carolina Panthers -1 at Cleveland Browns
I really wanted to take Cleveland here, but Carolina really needs this win to get back in the playoff hunt, and to end their four-game losing streak.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
To be fair, nobody has any idea how the Packers are going to react to the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy and Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Coordinator Winston Moss after last week's loss.  So, my guess is that Aaron Rodgers tries to validate the firing with a huge game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 at Houston Texans
Can the Texans win their 10th game in a row?  Of course they can, and I suspect they will.  But, Indianapolis is going to make this tough for them and will score quite a bit of points themselves.  Maybe a repeat of week 4's 37-34 Texans win will cover the spread.  Of course, if the Colts break the winning streak then they will win this beat too, so I am going Colts.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens defense is first overall in total defense and points allowed, second in passing defense and third in rushing defense.  I am not saying they will stop the Chiefs, but they will make it harder for them to score.  Plus, with the newly found rushing attack behind rookies Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson, the Ravens will try to control the clock.

Miami Dolphins +9 v. New England Patriots
For some reason, the Dolphins always have a trick or two for the Patriots when they come to Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 v. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans keeps cruising, but the intra-divisional rival Tampa Bay makes it tough for the Saints.  Do not expect a repeat of the week 1 Bucs victory, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the bench.

New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?

Los Angeles Chargers  -15 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is a ridiculous line, and nobody in their right mind would ever select any NFL giving 15 points ... unless they were playing against Jeff Driskel.  Can somebody say collusion?

Denver Broncos -3 at San Francisco 49ers
I hate taking road favorites, but I have to do so here.  The 49ers are going nowhere fast, and Denver, believe it or not, has an opportunity to still make the playoffs.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Detroit is not good, but I feel that they at least give themselves opportunities to win.  Despite being the proverbial straw that broke Mike McCarthy's back, Arizona has not shown us much of anything this year.  I'll take Detroit.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Both of these teams would love to knock the other one down a peg.  A win by Philadelphia puts them in a tie for first in the NFC East.  A win by Dallas virtually assures Philadelphia of missing the playoffs.  Plus, Dallas has been a completely different team since the acquisition of Amari Cooper.  Philadelphia is not the same team as last year's Super Bowl winners.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Is it possible that Roethlisberger throws for 500 yards?  I think so.  In the past 5 years, double digit favorites have covered almost 60% of the time, so I will take a chance on the Steelers (as well as the Chargers).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Just a gut feeling.Not saying the Bears win, but this game is shaping up to be very interesting.  We all know about the Rams offense (2nd in points, 2nd overall, 4th in rushing and passing), but the Rams defense has been markedly pedestrian, (17th in passing defense, 18th in rushing defense and total defense, and 19th in points allowed).  They will give up yards and points to Chicago.  Chicago is 5th in points scored and 5th in points allowed.  They are second in rush defense, so Todd Gurley might find yards tough to come by in Soldier Field.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
An incredibly important NFC battle for both squads trying to jockey for widcard position.  For those who have not been paying attention, Russell Wilson has been playing out-of-his-mind!!!!  I'll take Russell Wilson.

Big Bet
New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?

Saquon Barkley is coming into his own, so even though the Giants are on the road and giving up points, that shouldn't be a problem against..... who is it again?  Oh yeah ... Mark Sanchez.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  96-87-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $90

NFL Picks of the Week

Basically even last week, which is a shame because at one point I was 5-2 in the early games midway through the fourth quarter.  Then, in the span of less than a minute, the scores in the early games went from 5-2 in my favor to 2-5 against, and I almost never recovered.  A good start to this week with the Dallas victory over New Orlenas.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +7 v. New Orleans
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off.

New York Giants +4 v. Chicago Bears
Saquon Barkley is laboring in turmoil on a bad team, that gets to play against Chase Daniel as quarterback.  I just think that with Chicago's defense, this ends up being a low-scoring, close game.

Baltimore Ravens +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore wins, and Joe Flacco never starts for the Ravens again.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Now I am not going crazy here, I do not expect a Lions victory.  But, we do have the west coast team travelling west playing the early kickoff, so I expect the Rams to be a little sluggish, as history suggests.  Lions score twice late for a back door cover.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Arizona's offense is remarkably consistent.  They rank 32nd in total offense, rush offense, pass offense, points scored and 3rd down conversion %.  Why on earth would I pick them?  Green Bay is struggling a bit, and it seems as if it is inevitable that Mike McCarthy is fired after the season.  Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, but Arizona does have the 4th best pass defense.  Green Bay wins, but maybe 28-17.

Cleveland Browns +6 at Houston Texans
The Browns have been playing some tough football, and although I do believe Houston wins this game, Cleveland keeps it close.  They have the 8th best rushing offense, and if Baker Mayfield woke up dangerous, Houston better be ready to play.  Houston meanwhile is 4th in rushing offense, so expect both teams to try to control the clock, which should keep the scoring down, and close.

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cody Kessler is starting.  Colin Kaepernick's collusion case gets stronger and stronger.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Is it just me or has Miami been more lackadaisackal since Tannehill returned?  Buffalo with Josh Allen is at least playing like they care and are trying to win.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Awful for me to pick a road favorite in a divisional game especially, but Carolina need this win, whereas Tampa needs to finish up with Jameis Winston and find a new "quarterback of the future".

Oakland Raiders +14 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it.  But, with the turmoil in Kansas City surrounding Kareem Hunt's dismissal, I have to take the 2 touchdown spread.  Give me those points!

New York Jets +10 at Tennessee Titans
So many double digit spreads this week.  The Jets defense is second in 3rd down conversion percentage, so if that keeps up, Tennessee won't be able to sustain drives.  Without sustained drives, less points.  I will take 10.

Minnesota Vikings -5 at New England Patriots
I will have to take a flyer on this one, as everything except Minnesota's passing game is telling me to take New England.  The Patriots are 25th in pass defense, and the Vikings are 6th in passing offense.  At the very least, once again, I root for a close game.

San Francisco 49ers +10 at Seattle Seahawks
I am done with not trusting Russell Wilson.  With him  behind center, Seattle will make the playoffs this year, and with a win today go to 7-5.  However, 10 points in a divisional game is once again too much for me to give.  San Francisco's defense is a respectable 11th overall, and 10th in rushing defense.  That should keep it close enough to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Best game of the day.  I am taking the points and I hope this is a good old fashioned shootout, despite the fact that it is the 6th and 7th best overall defenses.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Racists
There is no real reason for the Eagles to be favored by 6.  They have not played in any way shape or form like they have earned the right to give up 6 points.  Everything about this game says to pick Washington, which is why I am going with the Eagles.

Big Bet
Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

For a big bet, I always tell myself to try to pick a home team, but if you pick a visiting team, make sure you are getting points.  What I am getting is Jeff Driskel - so that counts.

Last Week's Record:  7-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  87-80-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)

Picks of the Week

Wow - Last week was a complete annihilation, eliminating all of my gains for the previous three weeks.  Looks like a need a comeback week, and 2 for 3 on Thanksgiving is a good start.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears
Chicago is better, but the are the visiting team on a short week, a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, and starting a backup quarterback.  I took the points at home, and I would do so again.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Racists
The contra scenario to the above.  I took the better team at home in an intradivisional game when the opponent was away on a short week starting a backup quarterback.

New Orleans Saints -12 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
If this game was Sunday, I doubt that I would have taken New Orleans, but on a short week ...

Oakland Raiders +12 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens win this easily, I just don't think they score enough to cover this spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills
Hopefully the teams performance against the Steelers last week left a bad taste in the Jaguars mouth.  I am expecting retribution against Buffalo today.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams fighting for their playoff life.  Carolina at home, and hosting the early game against a team from the Pacific time zone.  Carolina prevails, and covers.

Cleveland Browns +1 at Cincinnati Bengals
I just feel that Cleveland is ready to turn the corner, and a Cincinnati team struggling on offense (27th in total offense, though 11th in points) AND defense (last in total defense, rush defense and third down percentage; 31st in pass defense and points allowed), is ripe for a home loss.

New York Jets +12 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Yes Tom Brady is playing, but how hurt is he, really?  An improving Jets defense should keep this game close, enough.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. New York Giants
My gut really told me to take the Giants and the points here today, but the Giants defense really is not stopping anyone.  Coupled with the fact that despite Saquon Barkley, New York does not run the ball particularly well (29th in rushing offense).  Yes I know they hit Barkley out of the backfield, but including that and Beckham, they are still only 13th in passing offense.  For Philadelphia, it is now or never to go on a run to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I originally took San Francisco here, but they are a west coast team travelling east for the early game, and I just couldn't do it.  Tampa in an ugly win.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Only because the spread is so high.  Arizona is 4th in passing defense and adequate (17th overall) i n total defense, so this might keep things close enough.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Nothing about the two teams' years says that Miami should win this game, and Indianapolis does score a ton of points (5th in the NFL), but with Drake and Gore running the football, the score stays close enough for Miami to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos
I have to take Antonio Brown at his word that he is playing this week despite having/not having the sickle-cell trait.  Pittsburgh's defense is much, much better than at the beginning of the season, and their offense is 4th in points and 5th in total defense.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the teams need a win to boost any chance at the playoffs.  Minnesota's defense wins this for the Vikings.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).

Big Bet
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
I hate picking my big bet on Monday night, but Houston is at home, not giving up too many points, and the night will be emotional with the recent death of their founder/owner Bob McNair.


Last Week's Record:  3-8-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  80-72-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($745)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($160)

Picks of the Week

Three consecutive winning weeks!!!  I know at some point that streak will end, I just hope that it isn't today.  A silly push on Thursday, but at least it was't a loss!!!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Green Bay Packers
After last week's Carolina debacle, I am going back to following the rules, don't bet on the visiting team on a short week.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I really have no idea who to pick in this game.  Atlanta's offense and Dallas's defense are both really good, but the other sides of the ball stink.  Usually in a situation like this I take the points, but this time I am taking the home team as Dallas is coming off an emotion intra-divisional victory.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I think this line is too high, especially given that Lamar Jackson might make his first NFL start.  That being said, with no A.J. Green, and with a great Ravens defense, it is hard for me to see the Bengals doing much of anything offensively.  It's the old adage - defense and running game - that I am betting on here.

Carolina Panthers -4 at Detroit Lions
You should know by now that I hate taking road favorites, but the Lions are not good and Carolina is 7-1 against the spread coming off a loss.  I will take a bounce back performance.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This Titans team will make life tough for somebody in the playoffs.  They start by making a run toward the top of the AFC South with a win over the Colts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New York Giants
Both teams stink, so I will take the points.  Plus, Fitzmagic is coming off a good high from the Harvard victory over Yale yesterday at Fenway Park.  This likely means Cameron Brate scores a touchdown as well!

Houston Texans -3 at Washington Racists
Both teams are 6-3 and lead their respective divisions, but it seems like the Texans have more talent while Washington seems to be doing this courtesy of a horrible division.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in utter disarray!

Denver Broncos +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should win this game, but it is an intra-divisional game, and I think Denver runs the ball enough to keep the game close.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
This is not last year's Philly team.  Middle of the road in total offense and defense.  Meanwhile, New Orleans is 5th in total yards, while first in points and first in rushing defense.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This should be a close game and the spread reflects that.  The Bears defense leads the way (2nd in rushing defense, 3rd in 3rd down percentage and 4th in total defense and points allowed), but the offense is 5th in points scored as well .  They could use a bit more of a running game against Minnesota which is 3rd in rush defense and 5th in total defense.  However, I honestly trust Mitchell Trubisky more in a big spot than I do Kirk Cousins right now.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Two high-flying offenses, but the Rams defense is 13th overall (10th against the run and 12th in points allowed), whereas the Chiefs defense is 29th overall (29th against the pass, 22nd against thr run and 18th in points allowed).  Given the emotional lift of all of the first responders to the California wildfires being given free tickets, I will take the Rams defense.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.
Ordinarily I would like to pick a home team and/or a team receiving points, but this Jalen Ramsey news is a bombshell.  What on earth is going on in that locker room.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-64-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $190

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $585

Picks of the Week

Two great wee\ks in a row (17-10), and although Thursday was an awful start to the week, I am confident that I can keep this winning streak going.  I have had a little more time to think about the picks today, so I sure hope that I do not overthink things, buChot what are the odds of that?

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I hate taking the road teams on the short week, but that extra half-point sold me at a time when both teams were playing extremely well.

Chicago Bears -7 v. Detroit Lions
This is not a homer pick, I swear.  The Lions offense looked anemic even before trading Golden Tate, and they looked downright pitiful last week.  The Bears have given up 17 or less in 4 of 5 home games, and the weather is going to be cold today, which isn't good for a dome team.

New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
The Falcons offense is really clicking, especially with the emergence of Calvin Ridley as a deadly threat.  Cleveland, although playing better than the past 2 years, is still a train wreck.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is scoring in excess of 35 the past 5 games, but even Blake Bortles has feasted on the Colts defense in the past 2 years. With Fournette returning, the Colts will not win by much, if at all.

Kansas City Chiefs -16 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
This line is absolutely ridiculous, but Arizona is Arizona and they are travelling west, so why not.

Buffalo Bills +7 at New York Jets
Two new quarterbacks in Matt Barkley, yes, that Matt Barkley, and Josh McCown, yest that Josh McCown. The Bills defense should keep this game close and interesting, as they are 3rd in total defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Washington Racists
Fitzmagic!!!

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel keeps the game with his mentor close.

Los Angeles Chargers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Road favorite and double digit division favorites never cover, much less if they are both in one game.  But, the Raiders are a train wreck the likes that nobody except for Cleveland Browns fans have ever seen.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Just too many points, given that the Packers are mediocre in points per game and average to below average in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense.

Seattle Seahawks +9 at Los Angeles Rams
The one thing that the Seahawks are is resilient, and although they may not win this game, they will likely play this game similar to the game against the Chargers last week, within 9.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This line just seems way too big for a division game in which the teams are only separated in the standings by 1 game.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. New York Giants
Two teams with a combined record of 3-14 means a Monday Night Football game I will likely miss.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.
No A.J. Green, and the Saints do it for Dez.

Last Week's Record:  8-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  70-58-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $400
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $395

Picks of the Week

Things went downhill last week, fast, but pulled out some of the later games just to get to 7-9.  I need to pull a miracle week 17 and have a great playoffs in order to salvage this year.  The problem is, we don't really know how long some of the stars will end up playing this week.  So, I am just going to make pics without too much thought or analysis.  Here goes ...
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +12 at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers +7 at Detroit Lions

Indianapolis -6 v. Houston Texans

New York Jets +15 at New England Patriots 

Washington Racists -4 at New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Dallas Cowboys

Cleveland Browns +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina Panthers +4 at Atlanta Falcons

Cincinnati Bengals +9 at Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 v/ New Orleans Saints

Tennessee Titans -1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Rams +5 v. San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Oakland Raiders

Arizona Cardinals +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Big Bet
Chicago Bears +12 at Minnesota Vikings

The Bears have been at their best against the tougher teams in the league this year.  That should continue.  Even though the Bears will likely not win, twelve points seem like a lot.

Last Week's Record: 7-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  116-116-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($455)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1085)

Picks of the Week

Two straight 8-8 weeks, but both big bets were successful, meaning I am inching my way back from the massive whole I dug for myself to start the season.  Hopefully, I can make a bigger dent in that deficit today.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Home team on a short week.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Chicago Bears
No faith in my team for this year.  The third or fourth pick could be very valuable this year for team's needing to trade up for a quarterback.

Indianapolis Colts +3 at Buffalo Bills
I think Nathan Peterman, who will start today, will have a better performance than his last start, bit that doesn't mean it will be good.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Just playing the odds here, very few teams ever really win 9 games in a row, right?  It might be cliche, but the trenches will decide this game as Carolina is 5th in rushing and 4th in rushing defense, whereas Minnesota is sixth in rushing and second in rushing defense.  I'll take points at home.

Green Bay Packers  -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Brett Hundley has started to look serviceable lately, and the Browns are, well, the Browns.Josh Gordon is already the teams leading receiver for the season.  OK, not really, but Corey Coleman with 206 receiving yards FOR THE SEASON is their best receiver not named Gordon.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans
Tom Savage, giving points.

Oakland Raiders  +4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland beat Kansas City in Oakland back when the Chiefs were playing well.  The Chiefs have gone 1-5 since that game (including that loss), so I will take the points.

Detroit Lions pick 'em at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Detroit has the sixth best passing offense and the Buccaneers have the 31st ranked passing defense (and 31st overall).  Tampa Bay is also dead last in third down percentage defense.  I would have thought Detroit would have been giving 2 or 3 points in this game.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants
Dallas's offense came alive last week, even without Ezekial Elliott.  This, after being absolutely dreadful for two weeks.  The difference, apparently, is not Elliott.  The difference is Tyron Smith, who returned to the lineup against the Racists.  He is back again this week.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Titans are leading the AFC South.  Yes, leading.  Arizona is helmed by Blaine Gabbert.  Adrian Peterson has given the Cardinals some life since being acquired by Arizona, but Tennesseehas the third best rushing defense giving up 86.2 yards per game.  Tennessee stays atop Jacksonville.

New York Jets -1 at Denver Broncos
The Jets, quarterbacked by Josh McCown, has by far the most stable quarterbacking situation in this game.  Denver's defense is still the fifth ranked defense in the NFL, but their offense is atrocious.

Washington Racists +6 at Los Angeles Chargers
When I first saw this line, I immediately thought Chargers.  They have the second best passing offense and have given up the fourth fewest points in the NFL.  But, something seems fishy; something that I cannot put my finger on to analyze.  Maybe it is that nobody can explain Kirk Cousins, so he might bounce back after last week's shellacking.  I am not sure.  But I am leery of giving up the six points here.  Not confident about this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough one to decipher.  Seattle, or at least Russell Wilson, has looked great in the last few games (really all season).  And, since Wilson is so elusive, it is hard to sack him - which is Jacksonville's forte. But, Jacksonville rushes better than any team in the league at almost 150 yards per game.Seattle's defense is the seventh best rush defense, but their quality and lack of depth due to the entire secondary being out (practically) that it is going to be hard to trust them to put 8 men in the box to stop Fournette.  This could be dangerous.

Philadelphia Eagles pick 'em at Los Angeles Rams
The two highest scoring offenses in the league, but I am going with Philadelphia because the have the number one rushing defense in the NFL at 68.1 yards per game, and the 3rd best defense in yards per game and 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens.  Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late.  Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.

New England Patriots -10 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
So, yes, I am taking an double-digit, intra-divisional, road favorite, which goes against everything I usually hate to pick, but, it is Bill Belichek and Tom Brady versus a very mundane and boring offense led by Jay Cutler, which usually only scores 17 points per game on average anyway.  Assuming New England's defense, which gives up a ton of yards by only the 9th most points, holds Miami near its average, New England would only have to 28 or so points.  That's why they call it gambling.

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens.  Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late.  Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
I hate waiting for the night game for my big bet, but I really have no choice here.  My other options were:  (1) Colts at Buffalo, but they are away and they are the Colts, even though they are getting points; (2) Green Bay at Cleveland, but they are a visiting team giving points; (3) Detroit over Tampa Bay, but Ameer Abdullah is out of the game; and (4) New England over Miami - but 10 1/2 points is a big number.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  93-92-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($465)

Picks of the Week

I am running a bit behind, so no analysis this week.  Just picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Racists -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Minnesota Vikings +2 at Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Green Bay Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars -9 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins +1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

New York Jets +4 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee Titans -7 v. Houston Texans

Los Angeles Chargers -13 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Carolina Panthers +5 at New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams -7 at Arizona Cardinals

New York Giants +8 1/2 at Oakland Raiders -5

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Big Bet

Los Angeles Rams -7 at Arizona Cardinals
I also thought about Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, and New England Patriots over Buffalo, but since Pittsburgh and New England are both road intra-divisional favorite, I went ahead and took Los Angeles because they are giving up few points than New England and over Pittsburgh so I would not have to wait for Monday night.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  85-84-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($535)

Picks of the Week

An absolutely great week last week at 8-3-2.  If it wasn't for a meaningless Dolphins late touchdown to push, a nine-win week would have been amazing.  Let's see if we can't keep this going.  I know better than to say that I am finally figuring out this NFL season, as that would come back to haunt me.  So, I won't.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
I am not picking a (1) intradivisional; (2) road favorite; (3) on a short week.  Turns out the damn blocked extra point by Jeremy Lane at the end preserved the push.

Chicago Bears -5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
A big number, even with Aaron Rodgers out of the game, but the Bears are a solid 8th in defense in the NFL going against the 25th ranked Green Bay offense.  All Chicago needs is a couple of Jordan Howard runs to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Buffalo Bills
New Orleans has the second ranked total offense (3rd in passing/7th in rushing).  Buffalo's defense is 23rd overall (26th against the pass).  Look for Drew Brees to have a monster game!

Detroit Lions -11 v. Cleveland Browns
When Cleveland is involved, I am no longer looking at the number.  Wow, I wish I didn't - that is a big number.  I'll take it anyway.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Indianapolis Colts
Another big number, but I am going to give the 10 points here.  The Colts are last in the NFL in giving up points at 28.9 per game, and at 31st in the league in passing defense, Antonio Brown will literally run free all over the field.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I will not pick this west coast team travelling east to play the early game, especially when facing the 3rd best total defense in the NFL.  Gordon could find some running room, but not enough.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We might actually see a shootout - with both quarterbacks going over 300 yards this game.  In the end, I trust the Jets defensive line more than any segment of Tampa's defense.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Just a feeling on this one.A.J. Green owes everyone a big game after his stupid ejection last week.

Washington Racists + 1 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's defense is statistically stout at 4th in the NFL overall (and 3rd in rush defense), but the Racists defense have looked very promising in the last few weeks as well.  Should be a close game, so I'll take the points.

L.A. Rams -12 v. Houston Texans
Not sure which is worst Tom Savage or Brock Osweiler.  (Hint, it's Osweiler).  Rams defense feasts, and the offense scores enough to cover.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Atlanta Falcons
I know that Elliott is not going top play, but the Cowboys have won three straight while the Falcons have lsot four of their last five.  McFadden and Morris are solid enough pros to keep the ball moving forward and likely to beat Atlanta outright.

San Francsico 49ers +2 1/2 v. New York Giants
I don't care.  I am not watching this game.Gimme points.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Complete opposites here:  New England is first in total yards gained, and Denver is second in total yards allowed (4th in passing and 5th in rushing).  New England is 32nd in total yards allowed.  The difference, Brock Osweiler is starting for Denver - so they may not even score at all this game.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Carolina Panthers
I do not believe that the Dolphins will win this game, but I also don't believe Carolina will win by 10 points either.  Both teams are statistically poor on defense (Miami 31st and Carolina 21st) but both are good on defense (Carolina 1st and Miami 10th).  Should make for a close defensive battle.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This made the most sense to me with Fournette coming back to the lineup - likely with a vengeance.  I expect the defense to swallow up the Chargers offense.  Other games under consideration New England -7 1/2 but I didn't want to give up that many points on the road; Dallas +3, and New Orleans Saints (but again, giving up points on the road).

Last Week's Record: 8-3-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  64-63-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($460)

Picks of the Week

Two weeks without analysis, that ended up OK.  Let's see what happens this week with some actual pick analysis.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Short week road teams are not supposed to cover, much less win outright.

Chicago Bears +5 at Baltimore Ravens
I don not expect the Bears to win this game, but I don't fully trust the Ravens either.  The Bears played the Vikings relatively close last week, so I expect that to continue, and Baltimore is only averaging 18 points per game anyway, so it might be tough to cover.

Miami Dolphins + 13 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins look like a trainwreck right now, but Atlanta may not have anyone to catch the ball for them except for Julio Jones, who is  a great option, but it does help to have at least somebody else on the other side for the defense to have to cover.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings
I don't normally like taking road divisional favorites, but Green Bay has won 5 of their last seven at Minnesota.  Coming into this game, statistically speaking, the Vikings are more dominant on offense (9th in total yards to 16th), whereas it is the Packers who are more dominating on defense (6th in passing defense to 20th).  Aaron Rodgers likes those numbers.

Detroit Lions +5 at New Orleans
Raise your hands if you know that Detroit is outscoring New Orleans per game this year?  No you didn't.  Detroit is also third in rushing defense, going against a team that is trying to run the ball to take pressure off Drew Brees.  They are going to have to keep relying on Brees in this game.

New England Patriots -9 at New York Jets
The Jets have gone three-and-out on every opening drive this year.  If they do that to the Patriots, they could end up down 14-0 to a Patriots team that is 1st in passing and total yards, and 3rd in points.  For as much talent as people say the Jets have on their defense, they are 30th in rush defense and 25th in total  yards.

Washington Racists -10 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate this line.  I was hoping for 7 1/2 or 8.  But, I have to take Washington as San Francisco is travelling from the west coast to play an early game, which is murder on the road team historically.  That and San Francisco is bad offensively (22nd in total yards and 25th in points scored) and just as bad on defense (28th in total defenses and 22nd in points allowed).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Another road favorite, ugh.  Carson Palmer has led the Cardinals to the second most passing yards in the league, but he has almost as many INTs (5) as TDs (6).  Some of Palmer's yards can be attributed to the fact that they HAVE to pass, since they cannot run after the loss of David Johnson.  I am not sure that Adrian Peterson can help with that.  Palmer, and possible Peterson, are shells of their former selves.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is second in passing yards per game, with Dough Martin now back after a full game under his belt.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 v. L.A. Rams
The Jaguars - behind Leonard Fournette - are number one in the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, and the Rams are 27th in rushing defense.  Gurley will get his yards as well, but this game is about Leonard Fournette.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes the Chiefs are undefeated.  Yes the Steelers have not been as dominating as expected this year (see loss to Chicago Bears).  So, this looks like Kansas City in a romp.  However, Kansas City's defenses is 27th in total  yards allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed.  I think Antonio Brown is going to have a huge game.  Kareem Hunt can have a big game as well as the Steelers are 28th in rushing defense.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. L.A. Chargers
Offensively the Raiders have been horrible (30th in total yards; 26th in passing yards), but Derek Carr's return has to give them a spark and Amari Cooper some receptions, right?

Denver Broncos -13 v. New York Giants
Big line for a Sunday night game, but the Giants are horrible, and they lost almost every receiver on their roster.  It is time for the practice squad to try to step up against Denver's 1st ranked defense.  Won't happen.

Indianapolis Colts +7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The only winners in this game are those that do not watch.  Bad offenses (Indianapolis is 25th and Tennessee is 24th).  Bad defenses (Colts are 31st and Titans are 22nd).  I'll take the points, because, why not.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.
A lot of points to give up for a big bet, but the Texans are at home, whereas the Packers are giving up points on the road, and Denver is giving 13.  I also thought about Jacksonville, but its Jacksonville.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  16-13-1
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  37-38-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $155
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($705)