Picks of the Week

OK - so I got hammered to end the season, but I don't care because the playoffs are here.  Actually, I do care, but it is my own fault for rushing through the picks in about 10-15 minutes of time.  The playoffs is where I make my money (hopefully), and I am much more prepared for this.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Houston Texans
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts.  Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs.  Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis.  Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston.  These games are close, so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff.  I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott.  While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6).  If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.

Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright.  Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense.  Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over.  I can picture that type of score here.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers.  But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here.  Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.

Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game.  The under it is.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection.  First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss.  Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close.  Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback.  There, I said it.

Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate.  Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner).  The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense.  And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league.  Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense).  The Bears should win this game at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores

Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($880)

NFL Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 3 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  I did not watch a ton of games as I was actually at the Kansas City - Miami  game, but I did see that one and Monday Night's game in total.  Was also able to catch parts of a lot of the early games!

Game of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles 37 v. Washington Whatever They Are Going to Be Called 34.  The second consecutive week that the Eagles have made this entry.  High-flying performances from both offenses, close game throughout, Kirk Cousins with 427 yards in his season (starting) debut, DeSean Jackson's return to Philadelphia, and a fight.  This game practically had it all.

Best Team Performance

Atlanta Falcons.  Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14, but it was not even that close.  It was 56-0 at the end of the third quarter.  Matt Ryan was an efficient 21 of 24 with 3 TDs, and it seemed like nobody could even try to cover Julio Jones.  An all-around dominating performance by the Falcons.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Miami Dolphins.  It would be easy to select the Buccaneers (see above) or the Jacksonville Jaguars, who lost 44-17 to the Colts, but both of those blowouts were to really good teams.  The Kansas City Chiefs dissected the Dolphins defense so thoroughly that Knile Davis had over 100  yards rushing.  Yes that Knile Davis.  The one that doesn't start.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Andrew Luck, QB - Indianapolis- It wasn't just the 44-17 victory, or the 370 yards, but the fact that he also did this while only throwing 39 attempts, completing 31 of them.  That is just under 10 yards per attempt and over 75% completion rate.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE - New York Jets. Almost single-handedly kept the Jets in the Monday night game against the Bears, a game which could have ended up being an early blowout by the Bears.  He finished with 1 1/2 sacks and 3 QB hits, but he was everywhere.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Dustin Colquitt, P - Kansas City Chiefs.  His 48.8 yard net punting average seems way lower than what it looked like happened on the field.  His booming punts changed filed position all game in favor of the Chiefs.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Arsenal.  Scored three goals in the span of 4 minutes (Mesuit Ozil, Danny Welbeck and an OG), to defeat Aston Villa 3 - nil on the road at Villa Park.  This was an important victory for the Gunners as they sit currently in 4th place in the Premier League table, just one point behind Aston Villa.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Leonardo Ulloa - Leicester City.  The Argentine scored a brace against Manchester United, including an insurance penalty kick in the 83rd minute to seal the victory at home over Manchester United.

Goat of the Week

Geno Smith, QB - New York Jets - He threw too horrible interceptions, one in the end zone to kill a promising drive, and the first one which was nowhere near the receiver on a flare screen, and which Ryan Mundy returned for a touchdown.  Smith was definitely the difference maker in this game.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Pablo Zabaleta, Manchester City - The Manchester City defense was so hell-bent on being physical with Chelsea striker Diego Costa trying to provoke HIM, that it was not shocking when it was Zabaleta who in fact retaliated against Costa earning a red card (via his second yellow).  Five minutes later Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea giving them a 1-nil lead.  Lucky for Zabaleta that long time Chelsea hero knotted the game a 1 apiece with his goal for City in the 85th minute.

Hit of the Week

Jared Cook, TE - St. Louis Rams.  After dropping a touchdown pass from quarterback Austin Davis, the first thing Cook did when he got to the sideline was to shove Davis.

Breakthrough Performance

Kirk Cousins, QB - Washington Whatever Name They Are Soon Going to Be Called. He played some in relief of Robert Griffin, III over the past couple of years, but nothing like this week's 427 yard performance.  Perhaps Washington could do something in the not-so powerful NFC East.

Finally

Tony Romo, QB - Dallas Cowboys - He has a reputation for choking away games, especially at the end (whether this is a deserved reputation or not is up for debate).  Nevertheless, he led the Cowboys in a come-from-behind win after trailing the Rams.

Impact Injury

Danny Woodhead, RB - San Diego Chargers.  The versatile running back has been placed on injured reserve - and thus lost for the season - with a broken fibula.  Although not a superstar, he is the type of cog on a football team that often determines whether a team succeeds or does not.  He does a little bit of everything from the running back position, which is important for a team that has already lost Ryan Matthews for a bit of time and a team that likes to involve running backs in their passing game.  A very important loss for a team with their sights set on contending for the Super Bowl.

Team Rising

Chicago Bears - Two wins on the road in prime time, and in fairly convincing fashion (on the field if not in the score).  If the defense tightens up just a little bit more, this team is going to be really scary to those in the NFC North.

Team Falling

New England Patriots - Barely defeated an hapless Oakland Raiders team and looked bad while doing it.  If this is any consolation, the Steelers were the team falling last week and managed to dominate this week against the Carolina Panthers.

Best Teams
(All undefeated teams will be top ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts and not just records).

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Denver Broncos

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be bottomed ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts and not just records)

32. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Oakland Raiders
29. Miami Dolphins
28. Minnesota Vikings

Middle Teams

15.  San Francisco 49ers
16.  Pittsburgh Steelers
17.  New Orleans Saints
18.  Houston Texans

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4.  No number 4 because their are 6 teams on a bye and the games generally suck.

3. Carolina Panthers v. Baltimore Ravens - Two teams at an early crossroads in their season, and both could certainly use a nice win at this juncture as 3-1 looks a whole lot better than 2-2 for some reason.

2.  Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers - Can the Bears win their third consecutive big game on the road or will Green Bay rebound from their funk?  Also, this is the best rivalry in professional sports.

1. Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers - The powerful offense of the Philadelphia Eagles against what used to be a stingy 49ers defense.  The Eagles could stay at 4-0 while San Francisco is trying to avoid falling into a 1-3 hole.

Trivia

In the game against the Eagles, Pierre Garcon had 138 receiving yards and DeSean Jackson had 117 receiving yards.  The last time the Redskins had two receiver over 100 yards in the same game was 2003.  Can you name the receivers?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

As stated earlier, I was at SunLife Stadium for the Kansas City - Miami debacle on Sunday, but I did venture out to watch the college games on Saturday.  So, I will review that place.

Roxy's Pub, 309 Clematis Street, West Palm Beach, FL

I must confess that I have been to this place too many times to count, so this is not exactly a completely uninterested review.  But that being said ...

The place was ridiculously packed, with every seat and most of the walkways filled with people, yet somehow you could still maneuver.  It took a little while to order the first drink, but after that, it was very friendly and timely.  Two bartenders that I did not know served us, but they were generally great after that first drink order.

This is actually an Irish pub, that does a really good facsimile of a sports bar.  There are four televisions on each side of the inside of the bar (8 total), for bar patrons to have a good view of the games, four more on the outside of the bar for those in the restaurant.  The big plus, a huge wall of various size televisions on the back wall so that those seated in the back area can see lots and lots of games.  As a sports bar it is not phenomenal,  unless you are at the back wall, but for an Irish pub, it is a great sports bar.

The food is what I would consider very good bar food.  Although somewhat common now, it was the first place I ever saw macaroni and cheese balls, which are excellent.  We usually go for our staple, the grilled wings and the chicken nachos.  The grilled wings are great with the hot teriyaki sauces mixed, and the chicken nachos are delicious, huge and made with homemade chicken chili.  Unless you have about 4 people, order the half portion.  In the past I have eaten the burgers and several wraps, which are all good, especially with the seasoned fries.

The best thing about Roxy's - the beer.  About 64 taps, most of them fairly common craft beers, meaning you can find just about whatever you like.  Our choices for the day included Avery White Rascal, Hooegarden, Abita Purple Haze, Sam Adams Oktoberfest and Harp.

Always a great time at Roxy's, even if it is overburdened with distraught Gator fans.

Service - NFC North
Drinks - NFC North
Food - NFC South
Cleanliness - NFC West
Overall - Chicago Bears (1st in the NFC North) - Really, really good!

Rating System Best to Worst:  NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, AFC East, NFC East

Trivia Answer

With the loss to the Eagles on Monday night, Andrew Luck just missed the chance to set the record for most games by a quarterback without consecutive losses to start a career.  That record was held by DAN MARINO.