Picks of the Week

An absolutely great week last week at 8-3-2.  If it wasn't for a meaningless Dolphins late touchdown to push, a nine-win week would have been amazing.  Let's see if we can't keep this going.  I know better than to say that I am finally figuring out this NFL season, as that would come back to haunt me.  So, I won't.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
I am not picking a (1) intradivisional; (2) road favorite; (3) on a short week.  Turns out the damn blocked extra point by Jeremy Lane at the end preserved the push.

Chicago Bears -5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
A big number, even with Aaron Rodgers out of the game, but the Bears are a solid 8th in defense in the NFL going against the 25th ranked Green Bay offense.  All Chicago needs is a couple of Jordan Howard runs to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Buffalo Bills
New Orleans has the second ranked total offense (3rd in passing/7th in rushing).  Buffalo's defense is 23rd overall (26th against the pass).  Look for Drew Brees to have a monster game!

Detroit Lions -11 v. Cleveland Browns
When Cleveland is involved, I am no longer looking at the number.  Wow, I wish I didn't - that is a big number.  I'll take it anyway.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Indianapolis Colts
Another big number, but I am going to give the 10 points here.  The Colts are last in the NFL in giving up points at 28.9 per game, and at 31st in the league in passing defense, Antonio Brown will literally run free all over the field.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I will not pick this west coast team travelling east to play the early game, especially when facing the 3rd best total defense in the NFL.  Gordon could find some running room, but not enough.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We might actually see a shootout - with both quarterbacks going over 300 yards this game.  In the end, I trust the Jets defensive line more than any segment of Tampa's defense.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Just a feeling on this one.A.J. Green owes everyone a big game after his stupid ejection last week.

Washington Racists + 1 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's defense is statistically stout at 4th in the NFL overall (and 3rd in rush defense), but the Racists defense have looked very promising in the last few weeks as well.  Should be a close game, so I'll take the points.

L.A. Rams -12 v. Houston Texans
Not sure which is worst Tom Savage or Brock Osweiler.  (Hint, it's Osweiler).  Rams defense feasts, and the offense scores enough to cover.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Atlanta Falcons
I know that Elliott is not going top play, but the Cowboys have won three straight while the Falcons have lsot four of their last five.  McFadden and Morris are solid enough pros to keep the ball moving forward and likely to beat Atlanta outright.

San Francsico 49ers +2 1/2 v. New York Giants
I don't care.  I am not watching this game.Gimme points.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Complete opposites here:  New England is first in total yards gained, and Denver is second in total yards allowed (4th in passing and 5th in rushing).  New England is 32nd in total yards allowed.  The difference, Brock Osweiler is starting for Denver - so they may not even score at all this game.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Carolina Panthers
I do not believe that the Dolphins will win this game, but I also don't believe Carolina will win by 10 points either.  Both teams are statistically poor on defense (Miami 31st and Carolina 21st) but both are good on defense (Carolina 1st and Miami 10th).  Should make for a close defensive battle.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This made the most sense to me with Fournette coming back to the lineup - likely with a vengeance.  I expect the defense to swallow up the Chargers offense.  Other games under consideration New England -7 1/2 but I didn't want to give up that many points on the road; Dallas +3, and New Orleans Saints (but again, giving up points on the road).

Last Week's Record: 8-3-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  64-63-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($460)