Two straight 8-8 weeks, but both big bets were successful, meaning I am inching my way back from the massive whole I dug for myself to start the season. Hopefully, I can make a bigger dent in that deficit today.
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Home team on a short week.
Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Chicago Bears
No faith in my team for this year. The third or fourth pick could be very valuable this year for team's needing to trade up for a quarterback.
Indianapolis Colts +3 at Buffalo Bills
I think Nathan Peterman, who will start today, will have a better performance than his last start, bit that doesn't mean it will be good.
Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Just playing the odds here, very few teams ever really win 9 games in a row, right? It might be cliche, but the trenches will decide this game as Carolina is 5th in rushing and 4th in rushing defense, whereas Minnesota is sixth in rushing and second in rushing defense. I'll take points at home.
Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Brett Hundley has started to look serviceable lately, and the Browns are, well, the Browns.Josh Gordon is already the teams leading receiver for the season. OK, not really, but Corey Coleman with 206 receiving yards FOR THE SEASON is their best receiver not named Gordon.
San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans
Tom Savage, giving points.
Oakland Raiders +4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland beat Kansas City in Oakland back when the Chiefs were playing well. The Chiefs have gone 1-5 since that game (including that loss), so I will take the points.
Detroit Lions pick 'em at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Detroit has the sixth best passing offense and the Buccaneers have the 31st ranked passing defense (and 31st overall). Tampa Bay is also dead last in third down percentage defense. I would have thought Detroit would have been giving 2 or 3 points in this game.
Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants
Dallas's offense came alive last week, even without Ezekial Elliott. This, after being absolutely dreadful for two weeks. The difference, apparently, is not Elliott. The difference is Tyron Smith, who returned to the lineup against the Racists. He is back again this week.
Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Titans are leading the AFC South. Yes, leading. Arizona is helmed by Blaine Gabbert. Adrian Peterson has given the Cardinals some life since being acquired by Arizona, but Tennesseehas the third best rushing defense giving up 86.2 yards per game. Tennessee stays atop Jacksonville.
New York Jets -1 at Denver Broncos
The Jets, quarterbacked by Josh McCown, has by far the most stable quarterbacking situation in this game. Denver's defense is still the fifth ranked defense in the NFL, but their offense is atrocious.
Washington Racists +6 at Los Angeles Chargers
When I first saw this line, I immediately thought Chargers. They have the second best passing offense and have given up the fourth fewest points in the NFL. But, something seems fishy; something that I cannot put my finger on to analyze. Maybe it is that nobody can explain Kirk Cousins, so he might bounce back after last week's shellacking. I am not sure. But I am leery of giving up the six points here. Not confident about this one.
Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough one to decipher. Seattle, or at least Russell Wilson, has looked great in the last few games (really all season). And, since Wilson is so elusive, it is hard to sack him - which is Jacksonville's forte. But, Jacksonville rushes better than any team in the league at almost 150 yards per game.Seattle's defense is the seventh best rush defense, but their quality and lack of depth due to the entire secondary being out (practically) that it is going to be hard to trust them to put 8 men in the box to stop Fournette. This could be dangerous.
Philadelphia Eagles pick 'em at Los Angeles Rams
The two highest scoring offenses in the league, but I am going with Philadelphia because the have the number one rushing defense in the NFL at 68.1 yards per game, and the 3rd best defense in yards per game and 3rd down percentage defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens. Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late. Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
New England Patriots -10 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
So, yes, I am taking an double-digit, intra-divisional, road favorite, which goes against everything I usually hate to pick, but, it is Bill Belichek and Tom Brady versus a very mundane and boring offense led by Jay Cutler, which usually only scores 17 points per game on average anyway. Assuming New England's defense, which gives up a ton of yards by only the 9th most points, holds Miami near its average, New England would only have to 28 or so points. That's why they call it gambling.
Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens. Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late. Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
I hate waiting for the night game for my big bet, but I really have no choice here. My other options were: (1) Colts at Buffalo, but they are away and they are the Colts, even though they are getting points; (2) Green Bay at Cleveland, but they are a visiting team giving points; (3) Detroit over Tampa Bay, but Ameer Abdullah is out of the game; and (4) New England over Miami - but 10 1/2 points is a big number.
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 93-92-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($465)
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens. Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late. Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
I hate waiting for the night game for my big bet, but I really have no choice here. My other options were: (1) Colts at Buffalo, but they are away and they are the Colts, even though they are getting points; (2) Green Bay at Cleveland, but they are a visiting team giving points; (3) Detroit over Tampa Bay, but Ameer Abdullah is out of the game; and (4) New England over Miami - but 10 1/2 points is a big number.
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 93-92-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($465)
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