For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Home team, short week.
Oakland Raiders + 5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
Talk about a west coast team heading east, as this game is in London, but Oakland flew to London after last week's game, whereas the Bears arrived mid-week. That is good for the Bears because it means Roquan Smith made the trip. Oakland has been playing week. I will take the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Two mediocre teams that have been playing fairly well. Jacksonville almost covered against Kansas City, so I will take the points here. Minshew looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback, though the jury is still out on Kyle Allen.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
Definitely a game that I do not want to watch. Arizona's defense is just a bit worse than Cincinnati's, so on that basis, and the fact that it is a west coast team (Arizona does not observe daylight savings time, so they are three hours behind the east) travelling east playing the early game.
Houston Texans -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
Houston is 12th in rushing, and 10th in scoring defense, so I will take that over Atlanta, which is third in passing offense, but that is mostly because they are always behind and have to pass.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well. They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense. At the very least they should keep this game close.
New York Giants +5 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This bet is a combination of the fact that I don't think the Vikings' internal turmoil and feud helps them, and the fact that I loathe road favorites. Minnesota is the better team, I just don't think they are in the right mindset to truly show that.
Philadelphia Eagles -14 v. New York Jets
Why not? Double digit favorites have done great this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Taking points at home in an intra-divisional game, yes please. Especially given that Lamar Jackson has come down to earth a bit, and the Steelers pass rush seems to be picking up steam.
Buffalo Bills +3 at Tennessee Titans
Although Tennessee was quite impressive last week, but this Buffalo defense is STOUT. They are 7th in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage, 5th in scoring defense, 4th in passing defense and 2nd in total defense.
New England Patriots -16 at Washington Racists
You would have thought that I would have learned my lesson last week taking the Patriots on the road as a favorite (they won, but did not cover). But, the Racists are going with Colt McCoy, and all the talk about firing Jay Gruden coupled with the release of the Jay Gruden smoking pot with young women may mean this team is not thinking about football.
Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Phillip Rivers is doing his thing, and Melvin Gordon's true return makes this offense even more potent. But, the defense is also 9th in scoring defense and 10th in total defense, meaning, they should win this game and cover at home.
Dallas either did not take advantage of a huge opportunity to knock of an NFC rival last week, and the fact that game was 12-10, leads me to believe that either the Cowboys make a statement and blow out the Packers, or this game is close. I think Aaron Rodgers keeps this close.
Kansas City Chiefs -11 v. Indianapolis Colts
Ordinarily I would select the Colts here, but their best defender is out of the game, so I am going to give up more points than I really want to do here.
Cleveland Browns +4 at San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland may have finally figured out how to keep everyone involved in the offense, and I think the bye week occurred at an inopportune time for San Francisco, as the time off this early in the season may affect the momentum they had after winning their first 3 games.
Big Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well. They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense. At the very least they should keep this game close.
Jameis Winston may have finally saved his job this season.
Last Week's Record: 6-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 28-35
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,080)
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