Picks of the Week

Finally a great week to stop the beginning of the season slide.  I would take going 11-5 every week, and I do mean every week.  But we can't this week because the byes start, so there are less games, making each game more important.  Which sucks because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thought Aaron Rodgers was going to throw that interception at the end of Thursday's game.  Puts me in a 0-1 hole.  Oh well, let's see how we do on Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Home team, short week.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams are surprisingly good defensively (Tennessee 6th and Atlanta 7th in Total defense), so I will take the points, especially if those points are going to the team that has looked marginally better than the other this season.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cleveland Browns
In the battle of the Cleveland Browns franchises, the old franchise has looked awesome this season, and the new franchise has looked, well, like the Browns.  Baltimore's defense is second against the run, meaning they can neutralize Nick Chubb, while offensively control the ball as the number 1 rushing club in the NFL.  Gimme the Ravens.

New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Julian Edelman has made the trip to Buffalo and although Buffalo has looked great in wins against bottom dwellers Jets, Giants and Bengals, not even a resurgent Frank Gore and the NFL's 5th best rushing offense will be happy to handle the league's best defense (#1 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, third down percentage and scoring defense).

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Detroit Lions
Yes, this is my third straight road favorite, but the undefeated Lions should get exposed against Kansas City as the explosive Chiefs and Pat Mahomes should feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense.

Houston Texans -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Houston has won two straight since their opening game loss to New Orleans, whereas the Panthers are coming off a solid win against Arizona after losing two straight.  Houston will keep there streak going as the Panthers will not be able to stop the Texans' rushing game.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I was initially going to pick Indianapolis before seeing the spread.  I really don't like this line, but I still feel compelled to give the points because Oakland is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, but also Indianapolis has looked really good this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -14 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Yes west coast team travelling east playing in an early game, but another rule trumps:  I am picking against the Dolphins until they show me they can cover any spread.  Miami is 0-3 so far against-the-spread this year, even though two of those spreads were over 20 points.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Racists
Ugh/  Please don't make me watch this game.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 at Chicago Bears
If last week's Bears offense is any indication of improvement (albeit against the Racists), this could be a really, REALLY good game.  I am gonna take the points in an intra-divisional game (and secretly hope that I lose this bet).

Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a gut feel, as the Seahawks have been up-and-down this year, playing poorly against bad teams (in wins against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and good against good teams (a loss to New Orleans).  None of their games have been decided by more than 6 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The undefeated Rams have been largely stagnant on offense this season (16th overall and 23rd in passing), whereas the Buccaneers have been surprisingly good on defense (6th in rush defense, 14th overall and 10th in 3rd down percentage).  Rams win, but Buccaneers keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville has seemed to play better given the Jalen Ramsey distraction, and Gardner Minshew II has a passer rating of 110.6 (as compared to Flacco's 87.4).  The Broncos - despite having Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, have 0 sacks this season.  If they do not put pressure on Minshew, he could be in line for a big road victory,so I will take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
This is the game the Cowboys should win if they want to be seriously considered as a Super Bowl contender.  Yes on the road, but an overall better roster given that Drew Brees is out.  Offensively Dallas is great AND balanced (#1 in third down conversions, #3 rush and total offense, #4 pass and scoring offense), whereas the Saints defense is the exact opposite (#20 3rd down conversions, #25 rush defense, #26 scoring defense, #28 total defense and #29 pass defense).

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I may not even watch this game.  Give me the points because Cincinnati is 3rd in pass offense and Pittsburgh is 30th in pass defense.  Ugh - horrible Monday night game.  At least it is likely one of these teams wins its first game of the season.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Patriots keep rolling and the Bills show they are not quite ready for prime time - but getting closer.

Last Week's Record:  11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  22-26
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $385
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($525)