My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Chicago is better, but the are the visiting team on a short week, a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, and starting a backup quarterback. I took the points at home, and I would do so again.
Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Racists
The contra scenario to the above. I took the better team at home in an intradivisional game when the opponent was away on a short week starting a backup quarterback.
New Orleans Saints -12 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
If this game was Sunday, I doubt that I would have taken New Orleans, but on a short week ...
Oakland Raiders +12 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens win this easily, I just don't think they score enough to cover this spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills
Hopefully the teams performance against the Steelers last week left a bad taste in the Jaguars mouth. I am expecting retribution against Buffalo today.
Carolina Panthers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams fighting for their playoff life. Carolina at home, and hosting the early game against a team from the Pacific time zone. Carolina prevails, and covers.
Cleveland Browns +1 at Cincinnati Bengals
I just feel that Cleveland is ready to turn the corner, and a Cincinnati team struggling on offense (27th in total offense, though 11th in points) AND defense (last in total defense, rush defense and third down percentage; 31st in pass defense and points allowed), is ripe for a home loss.
New York Jets +12 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Yes Tom Brady is playing, but how hurt is he, really? An improving Jets defense should keep this game close, enough.
Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. New York Giants
My gut really told me to take the Giants and the points here today, but the Giants defense really is not stopping anyone. Coupled with the fact that despite Saquon Barkley, New York does not run the ball particularly well (29th in rushing offense). Yes I know they hit Barkley out of the backfield, but including that and Beckham, they are still only 13th in passing offense. For Philadelphia, it is now or never to go on a run to make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I originally took San Francisco here, but they are a west coast team travelling east for the early game, and I just couldn't do it. Tampa in an ugly win.
Arizona Cardinals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Only because the spread is so high. Arizona is 4th in passing defense and adequate (17th overall) i n total defense, so this might keep things close enough.
Miami Dolphins +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Nothing about the two teams' years says that Miami should win this game, and Indianapolis does score a ton of points (5th in the NFL), but with Drake and Gore running the football, the score stays close enough for Miami to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos
I have to take Antonio Brown at his word that he is playing this week despite having/not having the sickle-cell trait. Pittsburgh's defense is much, much better than at the beginning of the season, and their offense is 4th in points and 5th in total defense.
Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the teams need a win to boost any chance at the playoffs. Minnesota's defense wins this for the Vikings.
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury. Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
Big Bet
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury. Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
I hate picking my big bet on Monday night, but Houston is at home, not giving up too many points, and the night will be emotional with the recent death of their founder/owner Bob McNair.
Last Week's Record: 3-8-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 80-72-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($745)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($160)
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