Picks of the Week - Wilcard Weekend!!!

 

Ended the season with a great 10-6 record, meaning my overall record for the regualar season is GREAT at 30 games over .500!  I am ridiculously satisfied with this season to date.  My only hope is to keep rolling through the playoffs!  Let's see how that goes!!  And, just as a reminder, the Chicago Bears have the #1 overall pick!!!  Open for business!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -2 at Houston Texans

This Browns defense finished the season 1st overall, 1st in 3rd down percentage, and 1st against the pass - which is Houston's offensive strength.  And, with the resurgence of Joe Flacco, especially to Amari Cooper, I am not sure the 23rd ranked pass defense can stop Cleveland.  Plus, the Browns just annihilated the Texans 36-22 in Houston on week 16 (and I say annihilate because that game was not even that close.  And sure, Davis Mills and Case Keenum quarterbacked Houston instead of C.J. Stroud, but that defense will be the same.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2

Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.  

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The winner of this game is simply ... the WEATHER.  It will be sub-zero cold, literally.  Probably not good enough weather to re-energize either of these stagnant offenses, but Miami just has too many injuries, especially along its O-line (Conner Williams) and D-Line (Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips), and other players playing - but hobbled.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43 1/2

Likely lots of running which eats up the clock, especially on long scoring drives.  I expect Isaiah Pacheco to have a monster game.

Buffalo Bills -9 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This might be Mike Tomlin's best coaching job to guide this team into the playoffs. Buffalo is on a roll haveing won 5 in a row, and Pittsburgh's defense, which was 22nd overall, 19th against the rush, and 17th against the pass - with T.J. Watt - is not going to stop Buffalo without him.  Another game where the weather will be a challenge, but I expect Buffalo to win handily.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills OVER 33 1/2

Yes, you read that correctly, 33 1/2.  That is a super-low over/under because of the weather, but I submit, bad weather helps scoring sometimes, with a fumble here, a slipping defender there.  Gotta take the over on this one.

Green Bay Packers +7 at Dallaw Cowboys

This Dallas team has been up-and-down and face a surprising Green Bay Packers team that is much, much better with Aaron Jones in the lineup.  I expect the Cowboys to advance, but it should be a tight one.

 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys OVER 50 1/2

This game could be a shootout - and that is what I am betting.'

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

Would you want to disappoint Dan Campbell with a first-round playoff loss?  Yeah, me either.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions OVER 51 1/2

This is the 5th-highest scoring offense (Detroit) versus the 8th-highest scoring offense (Los Angeles), with both teams in the bottom third in scoring defense.  This means ... POINTS!!!

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants.  Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense.  Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 43 1/2

Tampa is not going to give up a lot of points to Philadelphia (maybe 10 or 14), and likely won't score enough to push this to the over.

Big Bet I:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay getting points at home to a struggling Eagles team that lost 5 of its last 6, and its lone win a one-possession victory over the Giants.  Add to that fact that A.J. Brown is out, and Devonta Smith is hobbled, and all of a sudden it is harder to score on Tampa's 29th-ranked passing defense.  Should Philly rely on the run, Tampa is stout there - 5th in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield has played big in the playoffs before, and I feel that he will come through again!

Big Bet II:

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans OVER 44 1/2

Flacco will lead Cleveland to score over 30 just on their own.  

I shied away from picking Cleveland as my big bet since they are on the road and giving up points, as opposed to Tampa at home getting points, but I can double that up here by relying on 3 Tds between Njoku and Cooper, plus more from Cleveland.

Record

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  144-114-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,095

Picks of the Week

Well, week 17 was a total crapshoot.  Now we are on to the playoffs, with the wildcard round starting today.  That means the below rules apply to the over/under bet as well as to the pick via the point spread.  I will also be picking each game via the money line, and the money line rules will apply.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense.  I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league.  So, they are overrated.  I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.

Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above.  In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well.  Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright.  Why?  Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win.  That makes me leery.  But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.

Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense.  The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.

New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line.  Just hate it.  But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright.  The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas.  Who does Minnesota have to cover him?  Don't worry, I'll wait.

Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one.  Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco.  Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.

Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs

Big Bet I

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2

The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.

Big Bet II

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots

Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($900)

Picks of the Week

OK - so I got hammered to end the season, but I don't care because the playoffs are here.  Actually, I do care, but it is my own fault for rushing through the picks in about 10-15 minutes of time.  The playoffs is where I make my money (hopefully), and I am much more prepared for this.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Houston Texans
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts.  Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs.  Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis.  Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston.  These games are close, so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff.  I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott.  While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6).  If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.

Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright.  Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense.  Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over.  I can picture that type of score here.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers.  But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here.  Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.

Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game.  The under it is.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection.  First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss.  Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close.  Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback.  There, I said it.

Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate.  Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner).  The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense.  And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league.  Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense).  The Bears should win this game at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores

Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($880)

Playoffs Picks of the Week/Wild-Card Round

What a horrible start to the week, but managed to scramble to .500 for the week - and for the season - (but lost money due to the vig).  As we know, the playoffs are a whole different season.  Since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +8 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City escaped the doldrums of the middle of the season by winning their last 4 games in a row, often impressively.  The important statistic for me, though, is that Tennessee has the 4th best defense against the run, holding opponents to 88.8 yards per game.  Their strong run defense could hold the NFL's leading rusher in Kareem Hunt (1327 yards).  Even though Alex Smith did have the best passer rating of all eligible quarterbacks this year, he isn't likely to dominate a game, especially when the Titans have a relatively fresh Derrick Henry smashing into the 25th ranked rush defense of the Chiefs.  I will take the 8 1/2 points.

Kansas City Chiefs -$340 over Tennessee Titans (Bet $340 to win $100)
So, this is the worst money line bet on the board.  However, I have to take it because I don't believe that Tennessee can win this game outright.  If I am just trying to chase the money and get rid of my deficit, I take the Titans at +$255.  However, I don't think Tennessee wins, so I take the Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2
Both teams, at their average score a total of 46.8 points, and since neither defense overall is exemplary (excepting Tennessee's rush defense, but they are 25th against the pass).  Perhaps a 31-24 win by Kansas City to sweep all three bets.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams finished the season as the highest scoring team in the NFL, but were only 10th in total offense.  A lot of that came because of the exemplary kicking of Greg Zuerlein, who is out injured.  Meanwhile Atlanta seems like they have flown under the radar, despite the fact that they are basically in the same position as last year.  The offense wasn't exactly clicking this year, but they are in the playoffs and their 8th ranked defense in points allowed and 9th ranked defense in total yards could cause problems for the Rams.  The Falcons with points is dangerous.

Atlanta Falcons +$230 over Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $230)
For all of the reasons stated above, I expect Atlanta to outright beat the Rams.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48
Two high scoring teams should make this number rather easily.  I feel that at least one team will be in the 30s, if not both.

Buffalo Bills + 8 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo finished the season only 1 game behind Jacksonville, and a lot of that reason was LeSean McCoy.  Since it appears that he is going to play, I can only assume that he is fit to do LeSean McCoy type things.  That means he will perform against the 21st ranked rush defense in the NFL.  Ball control, and some scoring could keep this game close.

Jacksonville Jaguars -$335 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $335 to win $100)
It is still possible that LeSean McCoy is not 100%.  If that is the case, there is no real way Buffalo can beat the Jaguars.  The only chance they have is to jump out to a lead a force Blake Bortles to throw.  I don't see that happening.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 39
Would anybod y be surprised if this hit under, of course not.  But, if the winning team hits 24, the over should win.

New Orleans Saints -6 v. Carolina Panthers
These teams know each other too well, so it is really tempting to take the points, especially given 4th ranked rushing offense and 3rd ranked rushing defense.  However, these teams have played twice, and New Orleans won by a composite of 31 points.  The Saints' 10 point victory over Carolina occurred in week 13.   Saints just have too much firepower.

New Orleans Saints -$255 over Carolina Panthers (Bet $255 to win $100)
It goes without saying that if I think the Saints will cover the spread, that I would take them with the money line.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints OVER 47 1/2
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams

If I feel that they will win outright, then I damn sure need to make them my big bet.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-124-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1210)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)

NFL Wild Card Roundtable

Pepster:  It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen, where the best of the best football players in the world start the competition for Super Bowl Champion.  That's right, it's Wildcard Weekend, with four (almost) scintillating competitions that begin this afternoon.  Let's jump right it, and we will take the games in the order that they will be played.  First up:  Oakland and Houstson.

Sinickal:  Excuse me?  That is the first playoff game of the year?  Can we just fast forward to next week?

Hopps:  I probably won't even watch.

Pepster:  OK,I hear you.  So we don't start off with the most attractive of matchups, especially given the Brock Osweiler/Conner Cook quarterback competition.  Which sounds like something that should be said during training camp for third string.

Hopps:  This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that a quarterback will be making his first career start in the postseason.  Good luck Conner Cook, you are going to need it.

Sinickal:  The over/under on Cook completions should be 2.

Pepster:  That might be a little low, so I'll take that over, but the Texans did finish the season with the number one defense in terms of total yards (but 11th in points).  Good thing for them that they are a whopping 29th in total yards on offense (but they are T28th in points).

Hopps:  Speaking of Houston's defense, I predict that Michael Crabtree will get his chain snatched again.

Sinickal:  That is where we disagree.  Crabtree will be wearing a padlock around his neck.  That might slow him down a bit, though.

Pepster, Sinickal, Hopps (in unison):  Texans.

Pepster:  Let's turn to tonight's game in Seattle as the Seahawks  host the Detroit Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had by most standards, a helluva year, especially given the retirement of Calvin Johnson and virtually every running back on the team.

Sinickal:  Stafford will break his thumb on this throwing hand - because that's what the Lions do.

Hopps:  The Lions haven't won a playoff game since Barry Sanders.  BARRY SANDERS.

Pepster:  Well, both of those may be true, but this isn't the same Seahawks team as the previous few years.  They struggled early (boring close win [12-10] over the Dolphins in week 1 when the Dolphins started pre-retirement Arian Foster), they struggled late (losing at home to Arizona in week 16 and barely beating a despicably bad San Francisco team 25 - 23 in week 17).  They just haven't been the same since Earl Thomas went out.  Part of what makes the "Legion of Boom" great is all of them collectively, and Thomas is likely the best.

Sinickal and Hopps (in unison):  BUT IT'S THE LIONS!

Pepster:  I am going with Detroit.  Stafford throws for 330 and 3 touchdowns.

Sinckal and Hopps:  HA! HA! HA!

Sinickal:  Wait, you're serious?

Hopps:  Given me Seattle.

Sinickal:  Me too.  Good luck with that.

Pepster:  Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more enticing that the dreck we have tonight.  Let's go to the early game where the Miami Dolphins are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers are a 10 point favorite.  Now, honestly, this I do not understand.  The Dolphins defeated the Steelers earlier this season - albeit at home - after knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game.  Their defense bottled up Le'Veon Bell nicely, who only gained 53 yards rushing (+55 yards receiving).  Should this really be a 10 point spread.

Sinickal:  Well, Matt Moore is pretty nice as far as backup quarterbacks go, but I think Ryan Tannehill gets into this game for at least one snap just so he can say he played in a playoff game.  Come to think of it, so will Brock Osweiler!

Hopps:  Not that I am a big Tom Savage fan, but GOOD GOD - BROCK OSWEILER.

Pepster:  Anyway - let's get back to the Dolphins/Steelers game.

Sinickal:  Pittsburgh, easy.

Hopps:  I concur.

Pepster:  It's unanimous.  Steelers.  Primarily because I do not want to see the Dolphins play at New England next week.  Last game, New York Giants at 11-5 travel to the higher seeded Green Bay Packers at 10-6.  Predictions?

Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is pushed out at the sideline for a first down in the second quarter next to Eli Manning, where the two set into a heated squabble over who is the greatest playoff QB ever. Strangely missing from that conversation is Joe Montana.

Hopps:  Well, the last two times the Giants went to Green Bay they went on to win a Super Bowl.  Eli has a much better post season record in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.

Pepster:  Guys, are we really getting into the minutiae of which quarterback is better in one specific stadium?

Sinickal:  I didn't mean for us to get into that discussion, I just think Eli and Aaron will.

Hopps:  I will get into any argument I want.

Pepster:  Well, I will never give any credit to Aaron Rodgers, so to try to seem neutral, I will compliment Green Bay's left tackle, David Bakhtiari who, with all apologies to Tyron Smith, was the best left tackle in football this year.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  No, that is Baltimore Ravens guard John Urschel, who while playing in the NFL just started pursuing his Ph.D. in Mathematics at M.I.T., was named to Forbes "30 under 30" list in the field of science, has had six peer reviewed mathematics papers (with 3 more ready for review), and he specializes in spectral graph theory, numerical linear algebra and machine learning.

Sinickal:  I was talking about you!

Hopps:  Well, you both have points there.

Pepster:  So, who is going to win?

Hopps:  Giants.

Sinickal:  Packers.

Pepster:  Green Bay has gone through Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Knile Davis, John Kuhn, Christine Michael at Running Back, and even Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett thought about coming out of retirement before they settled on Tight End Ty Montgomery as their go-to tailback.  They still have a better rushing attack then the Giants.  Packers.

Any last thoughts

Sinickal:  Can we just get to next week?

Hopps:  So you can watch my Cowboys?

Sinickal:  Dope.

Pepster:  See everyone here next week.

Picks of the Week

An exhilarating (and money-making) way to finish up the NFL regular season by going 11-5, and only a play or two away from 13-3!!!

I will make my regular picks using the spread and count that toward my yearly totals.  I will also attempt to select just the winners of the games themselves.  I will do this first in the column, but these bets will not count against my yearly running total.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
The Golden State Warriors are the only hotter team in North American sports.  Alex Smith is actually good, and the fact that Jamal Charles is hurt has only diversified and improved the Chiefs offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals
I am not confident in this pick at all, as this game could go either way.  I just think that Roethlisberger's experience will help Pittsburgh when it counts in the fourth quarter.

Seattle Seahawks over Minnesota Vikings
Seattle is easily the best team in this game, and it isn't even close.

Washington Racists over Green Bay Packers
Because I can't select all four visiting teams (although watch Green Bay win and Cincinnati be the lone home team to be victorious).

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Houston Texans +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are overall the better team and they are getting Lamar Houston back, perhaps their best defender and definitely their best pass rusher, so they should win the game; however, Houston's defense is no slouch and they are at home getting points, so this game should be close.  It will be interesting to see which receiver makes the most big plays, Jeremy Maclin or DeAndre Hopkins.  Hopefully this games ends with a late Travis Kelce touchdown for Kansas City to take the lead, just so we can see what type of dance Kelce does (and for which nobody complains - YES I AM TALKING TO YOU CAM NEWTON HATERS).

Cincinnati Bengals + 1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Would it surprise anyone if this was a 1 point game?  No.  Would it surprise anyone if Cincinnati won?  No (even though I picked Pittsburgh to win outright).  That is why I am taking the home underdog.  A.J. McCarron can sling the ball downfield, and Pittsburgh's secondary is a bit suspect (remember the New England game earlier in the year?).

BONUS SELECTION - OVER 44 1/2
Both the Bengals and Steelers can score a lot against each other.

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Washington Racists -1 v. Green Bay Packers
I hate to do this to you Marcus, but Washington is actually playing much better ball than Green Bay right now, and GASP, Kirk Cousins is the better quarterback in this game (based upon their play this year only).  Green Bay has had problems running the ball, and they miss Jordy Nelson.  Washington spreads the ball around in the running and passing games, which could keep the Packers defense from keying in on any individual player.  Jordan Reed might be the best offensive player on the field tomorrow.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP

Alabama Crimson Tide -6 1/2 v. Clemson Tigers
Now, I have actually liked Clemson a lot this year, but I just think that the Alabama front 7 is so dominating that it will be tough for Clemson to get on track, whereas Clemson's best defensive lineman Shaq Lawson is injured.  Although he will play, if he isn't close to 100%, it will be hard for the Tigers.

BONUS SELECTION UNDER 50 1/2
Both defenses are better than the offenses that they are going against.  I see this game being something like 28-17 or 28-20.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Add to that the fact that although both quarterbacks are on the smaller side compared to the average NFL quarterbacks, Russell Wilson's hands are much, much bigger than Teddy Bridgewater's hands, which could make it difficult for the latter to get a good grip on the ball.  Expect a couple of bad throws from Bridgewater that either miss open receivers or float into the secondary for interceptions, and perhaps a fumble from a hit by Bennett.

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Year-to-Date Record: 124-109-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-4
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $700
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,330

Playoffs Picks

My attempt to go 11-0. I will pick against the spread and straight up.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals

Injuries finally catch up to Houston, as the Bengals' rookie QB is better than the Texans'.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints

Detroit has the firepower to hang with New Orleans, so they should cover, but New Orleans is way too potent at home to lose this shootout.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons

This should be a very close game. The Falcons massive draft day trade to get Julio Jones pays off as they play the horrific Giants secondary. I do want to mention that I think Jason Pierre-Paul has played the best football of anyone I have watched this year - and I watched a lot of football.

Denver Broncos +8 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think Denver can win this game, but their defense, coupled with the injuries to Mendenhall, Pouncey and Roethlisberger, should keep this game close. I am intetested to see how Brady Quinn might do, if he plays as is being reported.

Wild Card Wrap-Up I

Interesting couple of games on the first day of Wild Card Weekend. If I were truly the degenerate gambler that I claim to be, I wouldn't have a roof over my head this morning. I didn't think there was a chance in hell that I would be staring at Seahawks and Jets today. Oh well, there must have been some lessons from the Saturday contests.

So, what did I learn?

1. All professional football players get paid to play this game. And they get paid a lot because they are in the top 50 in the world at what they do. Give a team home field advantage, a playoff atmosphere, and something to rally against and all bets are off. I don't care what their record is. Well played Seattle Seahawks. Good luck next week when you see a team that won't be overlooking you.

2. The Saints secondary was atrocious! Cover somebody. Seahawk receivers were running so wide open that at times I thought the Saints were playing with 9 players. That has to get fixed if the Saints are going to contend next year.

3. I am not sure I understand why coaches go away from their strengths in critical times. Why run the ball for the two point conversion attempt when your two best short yardage backs are not in the game and you haven't shown the ability to pick up 2 yards when you need it all day? I was baffled by that call. The Saints deserved the loss for that call alone.

4. I am officially calling for Jim Caldwell to be fired. And I am predicting that Peyton Manning will throw him under the bus within the next few weeks. What possessed him to start trying to coach the team yesterday? All was going just fine with him as a figurehead. Everyone understood that the Colts had too many injuries to get far in this year's tournament, so there is no need to try and prove anything. And then the following two things happen during yesterday's game:

• He throws a challenge flag moments into the game that clearly was not going to be overturned. Too early in the game for that, and a wasted timeout to boot. It had no impact on the game ultimately, but it was just plain stupid.
• More egregious was the timeout called by Caldwell just prior to the Braylon Edwards catch to set up the short field goal. WHAT ARE YOU THINKING! The Jets run the ball into the middle of the line and appear content to attempt a very long field goal for the win. They aren't going to use their last time out at that point, because they need it to kick the field goal. There is no reasonable scenario under which the Colts are getting the ball back with any time remaining for a drive, so there is no need for the Colts to stop the clock. Caldwell allowed the Jets (and a young QB) to regroup, gave them an extra timeout, allowed them more options with the next play (a sideline pass to Edwards), and ultimately a chip shot field goal to win the game. While not being talked about this morning, this may be one of the dumbest coaching moves I have seen in a long time.

Now, there were a bunch of other contributions to loss by the Colts. There was the running into the kicker penalty at the end of the game (ultimately helped the Colts by running time off the clock), the missed 3rd and 6 by Peyton Manning before the go ahead field goal, and the kick-off return leading to the final Jets drive. All of those probably also can be attributed to an unprepared team, but the stuff from the sidelines was just absurd.

Playoff Roundtable

Welcome to the 2011 NFL Playoffs Roundtable. Here with me today is Hopps. Absent from this week is Sinickal, who thinks that he is too good to participate in the Wildcard Round. Maybe he will sneak in for the Divisional Round games.

Our first game today is New Orleans at Seattle.

Pepster: I think that this is a no brainer. We have the Saints, nay, the defending Super Bowl Champion Saints, who are only in this wild card round because the Falcons threw up a NFC best 13-3, against the pathetic 7-9 Seahawks. The Saints would actually be the 2-seed in the NFC if the brackets were drawn up simply by records. I am taking the Saints as having way too much firepower for the lowly, shouldn't even be in the playoffs Seahawks.

Hopps: But the Saints are not what they were last year. Despite a relatively gaudy 11-5 record, they seem to be missing that extra gear that they had last year. Plus, the ridiculously accurate Drew Brees has thrown an interception in like 12 straight games. I am taking Seattle. I am not sure why, and not sure why not the Saints. I think Pete Carroll is ging to dumb luck his way into the next round and sheer stupidity and the classic Pete Carroll Face.

Pepster: Gutsy pick Hopps, and an almost great use of a Bill Simmons reference. On to this evening's game The New York Jets at the Indianapolis Colts. Hopps?

Hopps: Peyton and his squad on turf. I don't care who actually composes the squad, I am taking them.

Pepster: I am actually going to agree with you here. For as much as Indy has relied upon Peyton for oh so many years, Javarris James, from the U, has actually energized the running game a bit, and the Jets defenses has not been as vaunted as advertised. Plus, the Jets don't really disguise blitzes so much as they just bring everybody. Manning should be able to pick apart those blitzes most of the game, and a receiver is going to break a 5 y ard slant into a big game. I am going with the Colts.

What about tomorrow's games Hopps?

Hopps: I am going with the Ravens on the road. Charlie Weis is off to your neck of the woods at UF, and if he has already checked out, then I imagine the team has as well.

Pepster: I am going with the Ravens as well. The Chiefs have overachieved, and have been pretty balanced attach with Jamaal Charles leading a running back crew and Cassell throwing to Dwayne Bowe. A very fast defense with Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali. I think running game will get some yards, but the Ravens run defense, led by Haloti Ngata (Ray Lewis would have been to obvious a mention), and Ed Reed is likely to get at least one really big pass breakup and/or interception. Ravens are too much. Keep an eye on the Chiefs in the next couple of years though.

Oh, and UF is not my "neck of the woods". I am 4 hours south, and in civilization. You are just jealous because it isn't cold down here in the winter.

As for the last game, I am going with the Packers. I think Vick is hurt a bit more than anyone would care to admit, and since its his quad, his mobility isn't going to be the best. The Packers defense can make a lot of big plays, and I want to see a ridiculously one-dimensional offense advance. By the way, why didn't the Packers sign DeShawn Wynn instead of the Saints? I guess the Packers do not even care about running.

Hopps: You are crazy. The Michael Vick redemption tour continues. Both QBs are injured, but Rodgers has yet to win a playoff game. EVER! His first is not coming at the Linc. I would have thought that you would have been the first one on the Free Ookie train!

Pepster: Free Ookie indeed! But, I need the Packers to win just in case Seattle does as you says and dumbs their way into the next round. That way my Bears can host the Seahawks in the next round. Wishful thinking I suppose.

Sinickal: Don't you mean MY Bears?!

Pepster and Hopps: Welcome to the party Sinickal.

By the way, my picks of the week:

New Orleans Saints -10 at Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts -2 v. New York Jets

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the NFC West Champions having beat the Seahawks, the Rams, the 49ers and the Cardinals. That is four of their 10 wins.

Previous Week's Record 10-6
Year to Date: 104-73-5
Previous Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 3-10
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): $225
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $120