NCAA Tournament Pool - Sosa Household Brackets

The four brackets in the Sosa Household, so you don't think we are cheating when I win!

NCAA Tournament Pool - Sweet Sixteen/Day 1

 

So the Sweet Sixteen began in earnest, and it began with a whimper as Oregon State outlasted Loyola (IL) after a blazing first half that had the Beavers leading 24-16.  That is right, ladies and gentlemen, this snorefest had Loyola scoring only 16 points in the first half.  Heck, Oregon State only had 24.  Ouch.  We had less scoring in the second game, as the one seed Baylor picked off Villanova by 11, after holding the Wildcats to only 21 points in the second half.  Oral Roberts and Arkansas provided us with a lot of drama, and astronomically more scoring by comparison, as the Razorbacks held off the Golden Eagles 72-70 when Davonte Davis hit a short jumper with 2.9 seconds left and Max Abmas - the leading scorer in the NCAA this year - had a good look for 3 from the right wing bounce off the rim to end their Cinderella season.  The nightcap appropriately left us ready to sleep as the Syracuse Orange, who scored a whopping total of 46 points, fell to the 2 seed Houston Cougars.

The games were crucial as WE HAVE A RETURNING LEADER.  Silas Nichols 2 of Washington, D.C., returns to the lead as Nancy McInerney of Atlantic Beach, Florida had a heartbreaking day.  She actually selected a Loyola/Syracuse Elite 8 matchup that would have vaulted her way ahead of everybody.  Alas, Silas jumps back into first.  But, he has Illinois winning.

We lost no champions yesterday as the only favorite to lose was Loyola.  So, our champions remain (in bold):  Alabama, Baylor, Florida, Florida State, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Virginia.  We are guaranteed to lose at least today as Florida State and Michigan play each other.  

As far as our pool, nobody had Oregon State over Loyola, and that was a 12 versus 8 so not eligible for bonus points anyway.  But, couldn't somebody have selected Oregon State just so I wouldn't have to type out the brackets that co-win the "Pick of the Day", which are everyone that selected 3 winning teams from yesterday.  Given that a 1, a 2, and a 3 won, there really wasn't that many brackets.  So, congratulations to:  George Walks 2 of West Palm Beach, Florida, Edy Pecan of Somewhere Near West Palm Beach, Florida (I think), Rich Samuels 1 of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, Katie Zdrowak of Orlando, Florida, Jeremy Spuhler of St. Petersburg, Florida, Martha Kroesen of West Palm Beach, Florida, Rachel Bornn of Averill Park, New York, Emily Lawson, of New York City, New York, Brian Hinaman of Parrish, Florida, Biscuit Zdrowak of Orlando, Florida, and James Garvin of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.  All 11 of you win the "Pick of the Day".  

For standings purposes. most people received 8 points for 2 correct selections.  Obviously it was some combination of Baylor, Arkansas and Houston.  If you received 8 you likely moved up a bit, 12 you moved up a lot, 4 you moved down some, and yes we had a number of entries that failed to score any points yesterday, kind of like Syracuse.  

Players of the Day

5.  Adam Flagler, Baylor. He only scored 16 points, but also only played 24 minutes.

4.  Justin Smith, Arkansas.  Scored a tournament low 12 points, but added 14 rebounds in a game in which Arkansas needed all of them.

3.  Max Abmas, Oral Roberts.  The nation's leading scorer had 25 points, but really needed 28.

2.  Ethan Thompson, Oregon State.  Scored 22 points, had 4 rebounds and 4 assists as Oregon State held off Loyola.

1.  Jalen Tate, Arkansas.  Stepped up his scoring with 22 points, to go with 4 rebounds and 6 assists.

Social Media Posts of the Day

3.  From John Anderson on Facebook:  "Sister Jean, get them rosary beads out before I fall asleep ZZZ"

2.  From Brendan Heslin on Facebook:  "Oral Roberts is a legit basketball team" - Verbal Roberts

1.  Creator unknown - Sister Jean getting the Crying Jordan treatment.

 

Stats of the Day

3.  Syracuse only scored 46 points.  Did you see that Silas Nichols of Washington, D.C.?  Only 46.

2.  Houston, with its victory over 11 seed Syracuse, faces off against the 12 seed Oregon State in the Elite 8.  That game will make Houston the first team ever to play 4 double digits seeds in the same tournament, having already beaten 15 seed Cleveland State and 10 seed Rutgers.

1.  Justin Smith of Arkansas had 11 offensive rebounds.  11!  He had more offensive rebounds than anyone else in the game had rebounds, except Kevin Obanor who had 11 total.

And, the stats of the day bring me to today's history of the NCAA Tournament.  So Houston has/will play 4 double digit seeds, making them playing lower ranked (and presumably lesser) teams.  But, what about teams that have played tougher tournament schedules.  Ladies and Gentlemen, I introduce you to the 1997 Arizona Wildcats.

Arizona, under Hall of Fame Head Coach Lute Olson, was seeded a respectable 4 after finishing the season 19-9, earning at At-Large bid after UCLA won the Pac-10 automatic berth.  They were sent to the Southeast Regional where they defeated a surprisingly tough South Alabama team (13 seed) 65-57 in the first round.  Interestingly, South Alabama was coached by Bill Musselman, who is the father of current Arkansas coach Eric Musselman.  Arizona advanced to the second round where they defeated the College of Charleston (12 seed) 73-69, after the College of Charleston upset Maryland.

Arizona moved into the Sweet Sixteen in Birmingham, Alabama, where they encountered the 1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks, and fought off the top team and won 85-82.  That Kansas team, by the way, had Jacque Vaughn running the point, Scot Pollard patrolling the middle, and were led by the two-person punch of Raef LaFrentz, who would be the 3rd overall pick in the 1998 NBA draft by the Denver Nuggets, and Paul Pierce, who is a finalist this year for the Basketball Hall of Fame.  Arizona then took overtime to beat the 10 seed Providence 96-92 to advance to the Final Four.

The 1997 Final Four was in Indianapolis, also the location of this year's entire tourney, where they clashed with the champions of the East bracket, number 1 seeded North Carolina, a game they won 66-58.  That North Carolina team was loaded with Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Ed Cota, Scott Williams, Shammond Williams (no relation), and Makhtar N'Diaye.  And if you don't think I listed that many players just so I could type "Makhtar N'Diaye", you don't know me very well.

Arizona then clashed in the finals with the powerhouse Kentucky Wildcats, fresh off the 1996 championship, in the final game.  Kentucky had 6 players on that roster that would go onto the NBA, Wayner Turner, who at the time had played more college basketball games than anyone else, 151, Scott Padget, Nazr Mohammad, Jamaal Magliore, Derek Anderson and Ron Mercer.  Nevertheless, Arizona outlasted the defending champions in overitme 84-79, to win the national championship.

Ultimately, 5 guys from that Arizona team would later play in the NBA.  Included in that list are Michael Dickerson, A.J. Bramlett, and the man who would have the longest impact in the NBA Jason Terry.  But, this Arizona team was led this year by Mike Bibb, who would be the second overall pick in the 1998 NBA draft, just one spot ahead of the aforementioned Raef LaFrentz, and Miles Simon, who was named the Most Outstanding Player of the 1997 Final Four, as he was the tournament leading scorer with 132 total points, including 30 in the championship game.  Something Syracuse barely managed to do yesterday.

Kentucky, fresh off its 1996 championship over Syracuse and this 1997 overtime championship loss, went on to win the 1998 championship defeating Utah in the Finals led by Most Outstanding Player Jeff Sheppard.  And yes, I found a way to make this tournament about Kentucky.

On to the standings.  Remember, feel free to double check my scoring and let me know if you feel there is an error.  Final two teams listed with remaining possibile teams in bold.

1.  Silas Nichols 2 - 73 - Illinois/Gonzaga

2.  Colleen Hamilton 4 - 71 - Ohio State/Texas

3.  Matt Hopps - 70 - Michigan/Baylor

     George Walks 2 - 70 - Illinois/Kansas

5.  Jeff Plamondon - 69 - Gonzaga/Houston

     William Pujals - 69 - Gonaga/Houston

7.  Kingfish Parham - 68 - Gonzaga/Arkansas

8.  Nancy McInerney - 67 - Alabama/Syracuse

9.  Edy Pecan - 66 - Baylor/Alabama

     Steven Usma 4 - 66 - Baylor/LSU

     Day Yi 1 - 66 - Gonzaga/Houston

12.  Brent Bellinger 2 - 65 - Illinois/Iowa

       Silas Nichols 1 - 65- Gonzaga/Illinois

14.  Chris Igtiben 1 - 63 - Illinois/Gonzaga

15.  Brent Bellinger 1 - 62 - Gonzaga/Baylor

       Measha Williams 4 - 62 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Justin Yung - 62 - Alabama/Houston

18.  Dave Marzouca 1 - 61 - Baylor/Kansas

       Ashley Poer 3 - Baylor/FSU

       Rich Samuels 1 - Houston/Gonzaga

       Measha Williams 2 - Gonzaga/Houston

22.  Javier Rodriguez - 60 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Pepe Sosa - 60 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Steven Usma 1 - 60 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Amy Zdrowak - 60 - Gonzaga/Illinois

26.  Jacey Fowler-Reynolds 2 - 59 - Alabama/Baylor

       Brittany Sosa - 59 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Katie Zdrowak - 59 - Iowa/Houston

29.  Braeden Helland - 58 - Gonzaga/Houston

       Ty Leatherman - 58 - Baylor/Gonzaga

31.  Jacey Fowler-Reynolds 1 - 57 - Gonzaga/Illinois

32.  Jenna Finkelstein - 56 - Kansas/Baylor

33.  Chris Igtiben 2 - 55 - Michigan/Ohio State

       Max Macon 4 - 55 - Baylor/Michigan

       Steven Usma 2 - 55 - Illinois/Michigan

       George Walks 3 - 55 - Michigan/Illinois

37.  Ashley Poer 2 - 54 - Houston/Gonzaga

       Brandon Satterwhite - 54 - Alabama/Ohio State

       Jeremy Spuhler - 54 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Steven Usma 3 - Baylor/Gonzaga

41.  Liz Carew - 53 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Skip LaForte - 53 - Michigan State/Baylor

       Ashley Poer 1 - 53 - Gonzaga/Villanova

       Carey Taylor - 53 - Gonzaga/Illinois

45.  Colleen Hamilton 2 - 52 - Gonzaga/Baylor

       Max Macon 3 - 52 - FSU/Arkansas

       Kisha Marzouca 2 - 52 - Baylor/Michigan

       Colonel Kareem Montague - 52 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Measha Williams - 52 - Gonzaga/Baylor

50.  Guy Hughes - 51 - Gonzaga/Baylor

       Karen Katz - 51 - Illinois/Iowa

       Katie Kollmeyer - 51 - Michigan/Illinois

       Martha Kroesen - 51 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Keith Zdrowak - 51 - Ohio State/Gonzaga

55.  Scott Bieterman - 50 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Rachel Bornn - 50 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Emily Lawson 2 - 50 - Baylor/Gonzaga

58.  Larry Green - 49 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Stephanie Henderson - 49 - Baylor/Iowa

       Brian Hinaman - 49 - Baylor/Gonzaga

       Max Macon 2 - 49 - Michigan/West Virginia

       Measha Willimas - 49 - Gonzaga/Baylor

63.  Colleen Hamilton 3 - 48 - Ohio State/Gonzaga

       Arlene Amo Hopps - 48 -Villanova/Kansas

       Eric Inge - 48 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Adam Jorgensen 1 - 48 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Sasha Moon - 48 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Dan Laishley - 48 - Baylor/FSU

       Jason Spuhler - 48 - Gonzaga/Illinois

70.  Braeden Helland 1 - 47 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Adam Jorgensen 2 - 47 - Iowa/Illinois

       Adam Jorgensen 3 - 47 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Joshua Ward - 47 - Baylor/Michigan

       Ken Ward - 47 - Virginia/Baylor

       Biscuit Zdrowak - 47 - Baylor/Iowa

76.  Paul Cummings - 46 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Braeden Helland 4 - 46 - Gonzaga/Baylor

       Jonathan Wasserman - 46 - Michigan/West Virginia

79.  Dan Barsky 1 - 45 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Mac Kroesen - 45 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Michael McNally - 45 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Cheryl Spuhler - 45 - Baylor/Alabama

       George Walks 4 - 45 - Houston/Alabama

84.  James Garvin - 44 - Gonzaga/Baylor

       Colleen Hamilton 1 - 44 - FSU/Arkansas

       Miles Jackson - 44 - Illinois/Alabama

       Emily Lawson 1 - 44 - Gonzaga/Baylor

       Greg Lieberman - 44 - Michigan/Ohio State

       Kisha Marzouca 1 - 44 - Illinois/Michigan

       Jane Reynolds - 44 - Alabama/Illinois

       Hannah Sosa - 44 - Florida/Michigan

92.  Quinn Jackson - 43 - Illinois/Gonzaga

       Chris LaForte - 43 - Michigan/Houston

       Max Macon 1 - 43 - Gonzaga/Baylor

95.  Luis Briones - 42 - Ohio State/Gonzaga

       Carolyn Fowler - 42 - Illinois/Alabama

       Amanda Staudt - 42 - Illinois/Michigan

98.  Braden Helland 2 - 41 - Iowa/Ohio State

       Kyle Henderson 1 - 41 - Gonzaga/Oklahoma State

       Marcus Jackson - 41 - Gonzaga/Illinois

       Barkley Sosa - 41 - Florida/Virginia

       George Walks 1 - 41 - Gonzaga/Illinois

103.  Kyle Henderson 2 - 40 - Baylor/Gonzaga

         Shane Dogmillionaire Jernigan 2 - 40 - Gonzaga/Illinois

         Rich Samuels 2 - 40 - Baylor/Iowa

106.  Wes Wiggins - 39 - Gonzaga/Oklahoma State

          Day Yi 2 - 39 - Michigan/Illinois

108.  Justin Hallack - 38 - Baylor/Gonzaga

         Rich Samuels 3 - 38 - Gonzaga/Illinois

110.  Carolyn Fowler & Jane Reynolds - 37 - Illinois/Baylor

         Dave Marzouca 2 - 37 - Ohio State/Kansas

         Joshua Zdrowak - 37 - Baylor/Michigan

113.  Blake Jackson - 36 - Alabama/Ohio State

114.  Dan Barsky 2 - 35 - Illinois/Gonzaga

         Sean McInerney - 35 Ohio State/Iowa

         Jessica Samuels - 35 - Gonzaga/West Virginia

117.  Alvaro Gonzalez - 34 - Gonzaga/Baylor

118.  Shane Dogmillionaire Jernigan 1- 33 - Illinois/Gonzaga

119.  Brian McMahon - 31 - Gonzaga/Ohio State

         Bubba Zdrowak - 31 - Alabama/Oklahoma State

Picks of the Week

Baltimore disappointed us all, but WOW, that Kansas City - Houston game was AMAZING!!!  I certainly could watch that game over and over.  So much going on in that game that it was hard to keep up.  Almost makes up for the cluster that was betting on Baltimore.  Today we only have two games upon which to focus, so it makes each bet that much more important.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are on a serious roll, but the Chiefs' offense is seriously rolling.  Tennessee cannot keep relying on Derrick Henry to the point the ignore the passing game entirely and win this game.  Kansas City rolls.

Kansas City Chiefs -320 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $320 to win $100)
If I think the Chiefs are going to cover, then I definitely think they will win outright.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 52 1/2
The only question after last week is will Kansas City hit this number on its own.

Green Bay Packers +8 at San Francisco 49ers
Does anyone not think that Aaron Rodgers can at least keep this one close, especially now that Aaron Jones has started to hit his stride?

San Francisco 49ers -350 over Green Bay Packers (Bet $350 to win $100)
Just because I think Green Bay can keep it close, does not mean that I think they are going to win.  In fact, San Francisco has basically been the best team in the NFC this entire season.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46 1/2
The under has hit way more than in should in these playoffs, and part of that is the quality of the defenses left.  Green Bay is 9th in scoring defense in the NFL and San Francisco is 8th.  I guess this means that the over will definitely hit, but I am taking the UNDER.

Big Bet I

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 52 1/2
The only question after last week is will Kansas City hit this number on its own.
I am just hoping this game is even remotely as exciting as last week's.

Big Bet II

Green Bay Packers +8 at San Francisco 49ers
Does anyone not think that Aaron Rodgers can at least keep this one close, especially now that Aaron Jones has started to hit his stride?
This game will be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playoffs)

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 46 1/2
The under has hit way more than in should in these playoffs, and part of that is the quality of the defenses left.  Green Bay is 9th in scoring defense in the NFL and San Francisco is 8th.  I guess this means that the over will definitely hit, but I am taking the UNDER.
The Unders have been huge this playoffs.

Last Week's Record:  8-4
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-2
Year-to-Date Record:  139-138-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  17-10
Playoff Record:  15-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,005)

Picks of the Week

With the exception of the Minnesota - New Orleans game, last week was very good.  Even with my 3 losses from that one wildcard game (and one BAD one at -$400), I still finished up for the week.  Let's see how that playoff luck continues in the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers -320 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $320 to win $100)
San Francisco is the better team, they should win this game.  Of course, Minnesota got me last week as well, but Rudolph did push-off on the game winning touchdown and the playoff rules stink - both teams should at least get one possession.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44 1/2
These defenses are good, and San Francisco is getting a ton of players back from injury.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee is the type of hard-nosed, ball-control team that could give Baltimore trouble.  For that, there is no way that I will give up 10 points in this round of the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -450 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $450 to win $100)
This is the type of line to make me consider taking Tennessee, but I do feel that the Ravens will win this game, and I am confident in that so I have to take the money line on them to win.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 47
Two ball control teams will limit possessions, thus limiting scoring.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by 2 touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs -450 v. Houston Texans (Bet $450 to win $100)
See my analysis of the Baltimore money line and the Chiefs ATS bet.  Patrick Mahomes will put up POINTS.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 51
A 35-14 Chiefs victory still hits the under here.

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.

Green Bay Packers -200 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $200 to win $100)
Despite the fact that I think this is going to be a close game, at plus $170, there is not enough value for me to take a team with no running game fronted by Travis Homer.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers OVER 46 1/2
I can't pick all unders, and in this one, Green Bay wins 27-24.

Big Bet I

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.
This game is going to be close.

Big Bet II

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by at least 2 touchdowns.

This game is not.  35-14.

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.
Seattle would win this game is Chris Carson was healthy.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-134-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  16-8
Playoff Record:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $85
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($815)

Picks of the Week

Well, week 17 was a total crapshoot.  Now we are on to the playoffs, with the wildcard round starting today.  That means the below rules apply to the over/under bet as well as to the pick via the point spread.  I will also be picking each game via the money line, and the money line rules will apply.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense.  I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league.  So, they are overrated.  I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.

Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above.  In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well.  Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright.  Why?  Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win.  That makes me leery.  But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.

Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense.  The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.

New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line.  Just hate it.  But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright.  The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas.  Who does Minnesota have to cover him?  Don't worry, I'll wait.

Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one.  Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco.  Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.

Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs

Big Bet I

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2

The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.

Big Bet II

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots

Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($900)

Picks of the Week

Of course I get annihilated in week 15, after a phenomenal week 14.  This year has been ridiculous.  Oh well - gotta keep plugging along.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Houston Texans
A short week, plus Houston is 28th in the NFL in passing defense, which doesn't bode well against the number 1 passing offense in the league.  And, Houston's offensive strength in running the ball - 7th in the NFL - but Tampa Bay's defense is 1st in rushing defense.

New England Patriots -6 v. Buffalo Bills
This line is begging for everyone to take the Bills, and in fact, they are, as the line has moved a full point since it opened at -7.  That is the only reason that I am taking the Patriots, because there offense is not good right now, and the Bills defense is great.  (3rd passing defense, 10th rushing defense, 2nd scoring defense and 3rd total defense).  Unfortunately, Buffalo's offense is practically horrid (22nd in total offense and scoring offense).

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Like the above, this line is screaming for action on the Rams.  But, I will once again take the home team (third of three for Saturday's games), and run with it.  Plus, San Fran needs to seriously bounce back from that lost to Atlanta last week.

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ok, so maybe the Jaguars haven't given up as they beat the Raiders last week.  But that was the Raiders - and Derek Carr.  Atlanta has been playing well lately, having beat New Orleans and San Francisco in the past month.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
It sure seems as if Cleveland is imploding, doesn't it?

Carolina Panthers +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Cotls
I just think that the Panthers will get a jolt from new starting quarterback Will Grier.  Can McCaffrey be any more dangerous than when the safeties have to actually protect against the deep ball, instead of cheating up to guard McCaffrey?

Miami Dolphins pick 'em v. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals seem to want the number 1 pick more than the Dolphins do.

New York Jets +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I will take the points, any points, in this game, as we matchup the 30th and 31st ranked total offenses.  YAWN!

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The Saints are rolling, and although we never get the Titans enough credit, by rule I think they have to finish 8-8.

Washington Racists -1 v. New York Giants
Honestly, who cares?

Denver Broncos -7 v. Detroit Lions
A lot of teams would have lost to Kansas City in the snow last week.  Against mediocre and bad teams, Drew Lock has looked pretty good, and that should continue.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Oakland Raiders
I know the transitive property does not apply to sports, but he Raiders just lost to the Jaguars at home, a team the Rams annihilated - in Jacksonville.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas at its best looks better than Philadelphia at its best.  The question is ... will we get either of their bests?

Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has gotten better this year, and a good draft or two and they could be challenging for the playoffs.  But, that is in a good draft or two, not now.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 at Chicago Bears
DeShaun Watson v. Pat Mahomes would have been a great battle this week.

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No Dalvin Cook for one thing.  Green Bay has been continually underrated all season for another.  I'll take the points.

Big Bet I
Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ok, so maybe the Jaguars haven't given up as they beat the Raiders last week.  But that was the Raiders - and Derek Carr.  Atlanta has been playing well lately, having beat New Orleans and San Francisco in the past month.

The Jaguars have given up.

Big Bet II

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No Dalvin Cook for one thing.  Green Bay has been continually underrated all season for another.  I'll take the points.

Why not another big bet.  Let's save it for Monday night to make it even more interesting.

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-2
Year-to-Date Record:  107-116-2
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  10-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($930)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,890)

Picks of the Week

What a great week last week.  Perhaps after 13 weeks I finally learned something.  Of course, after bragging about it here, I am going to get demolished this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Jets +17 at Baltimore Ravens
That number just seemed big to me.  Moral of the story?  Home team on a short week.

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
These games always seem to be close, and should be more so now that Akiem Hicks is back for the Bears.

Carolina Panthers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
i don't like this pick, but it is a west coast team travelling east and playing in the early matchup.  But, Russell Wilson has historically done phenomenal in these situations.  With a 6 point spread, Seattle can win, and Carolina still cover.

Cincinnati Bengals +10 v. New England Patriots
Cincinnati has been playing better with Andy Dalton back at the helm, and New England's offense has been going backward.  Patriots will likely still win, but by a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Jameis - for better or for worse - has been slinging it, and he is playing for his job (and contract), whether in Tampa or otherwise.

Denver Broncos +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
I cannot pull the trigger on giving up double digits in this intradivisional rivalry, especially since Denver's offense looks entirely different with Drew Lock.  They aren't great, and Lock still has a long way to go, but at least it looks like I am watching an NFL team.

Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Giants
Do I need to say one more time how hard this team has been playing under Flores?  And, as the year end approaches, lots of Dolphins are playing for their jobs.  Plus, Fitzpatrick gets to pick on a team that just cut one of their cornerbacks because of a twitter feud.  Kudos to Eli for the way he handled himself while benched, but he just doesn't have the firepower - even with Saquon Barkley.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans
I just feel that this Tennessee team is better than (1) the sum of its parts; and (2) we all think.  If this game was at Houston, I would probably pick the Texans.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Washington Racists
The Eagles now know they have a legitimate chance to take over the division lead, as the Cowboys host the Rams and the Eagles play the Giants in week 17.  This win could make next week's game against the Cowboys less important.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Cleveland's offense has looked more dangerous since Kareem Hunt arrived, without lessening the impact running of Nick Chubb.  This is just too much for Arizona.

Oakland Raiders -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have given up.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Minnesota celebrates the return of Adam Thielen by defeating the Chargers.  But, I would be incredibly happy if the Chargers win this game outright.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas has not defeated a team over .500 this season.  The only reason they are still in the playoff hunt is because their division is weak, and because they also haven't lost to a team under .500 all year.

San Francisco 49ers -10 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
I really hope that we get the 49ers offense from last week.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner is back for Pittsburgh, but only will split carries with Jaylen Samuels and Bennie Snell.  This leaves me in a fantasy football dilemma, but not in a picks dilemma.  I will take any points Pittsburgh gives me.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis gave this season as good run for 10 or 11 weeks, but just ran out of steam.  If the Saints play anywhere near the level they played last week, they win this in a walk.

Big Bet I
Oakland Raiders -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have given up.

In case you haven't seen it yet this week, or in previous weeks, the Jaguars have given up.

Big Bet II

Cleveland Browns -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Cleveland's offense has looked more dangerous since Kareem Hunt arrived, without lessening the impact running of Nick Chubb.  This is just too much for Arizona.

I am only picking a second big bet because I couldn't decide which of the two to choose, so I am picking both.  I would do I if I was actually limited to one because Oakland is at home.

Last Week's Record:  10-5-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  102-106-1
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  10-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $750
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($960)

Picks of the Week

Coming to the conclusion of fantasy football seasons, as this and next week end most normal leagues.  Good think that I have a few more weeks to continue building out of the hole in which I placed myself.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Damn Hook got me.

New York Giants +6 at Chicago Bears
There is no way that I am giving up almost a touchdown with Mitchell Trubisky right now.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.

Denver Broncos +4 at Buffalo Bills
Denver played the Minnesota Vikings tough last week on the road, losing only by four.  I know that each week is different in the  NFL, but I have to give some credence to the Broncos showing and take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is an intradivisional rivalry game, in which Pittsburgh is playing roughly zero of its starters.  OK, so not true on defense, but this game could end 6-0.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Miami has been playing tough.  I don't think Miami has a chance to win this game, but I could see it being 30-20.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
New Orleans has the third best rush defense, and given that Christian McCaffrey as a runner is one of the two offense weapons Carolina possesses - the other being Christian McCaffrey the receiver - New Orleans should beat Carolina handily.

New York Jets +3 v. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are a much better team, but the Jets are coming off two consecutive wins (albeit against the Washington Racists and New York Giants), and they are hosting a team travelling east and playing in the early game.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Despite the fact/betting rule that I just wrote about west coast teams travelling east and playing in the early game, Russell Wilson has been phenomenal in his career playing in the early game on the east coast, winning approximately 75% of the games.  Since Seattle is the betting underdog, I will take them to win.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Washington Racists
Jeff Driskel has been able to move the ball in the past two games, albeit mostly with his feet.  Given that Washington is 28th in the NFL against the run, Detroit should control the ball and win this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans
Just give me the points in this game.  I don't care which team is favored and why - just give me the points.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v Dallas Cowboys
Yes, something is amiss with this Patriots team, but the Cowboys have serious flaws also.  This game will be played in some serious weather conditions, which favors New England, and, the flu is rumored to be going through the Cowboys this week.  You know what else favors New England?  Bell Belichick over Jason Garrett.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers
Aaron Rodgers often plays big in prime time games.  And, despite the expected return of George Kittle, San Francisco is missing a tone of players in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Nobody loves Lamar Jackson as much as I, but Jalen Ramsey practically eliminates the deep passing game to receivers (M. Brown), and the defensive line eliminates the running backs.  That leaves Lamar's running, and short/intermediate passing to Mark Andrews.  That could win them the game, but this should be close..

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.
I really wanted to select the Jets here, but the Falcons have been playing great football since their coaching shakeup.

Last Week's Record:  6-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  78-85
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,170)

Picks of the Week

Now that "Tanking for Tua" isn't really an option, and since the NFL's sham workout for Colin Kaepernick was called out by Kaep, and he still tried out - with media - in front of 8 teams, it almost makes this weekend's games irrelevant.  Except, it is still the NFL!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cleveland Browns
I broke the early week rule and paid for it dearly, although not nearly as much as Myles Garrett did.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
DeShaun Watson versus Lamar Jackson.  Yes, I know they do not actually play against each other, but WOW am I looking forward to this game.  I hope it is close, so give me the points.

Carolina Panthers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
I honestly only think this because Atlanta has a comedown after destroying New Orleans last week.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Detroit Lions
Jeff Driskel.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
It might take a little while for Jacoby Brissett to get his sea legs.  I could probably say the same for Nick Foles, but only one of the two has a Super Bowl MVP.

Miami Dolphins +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This Dolphins team is actually playing really hard.  This game will be close.

Minnesota Vikings -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Branadon Allen.

New Orleans Saints -4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bounce-back week.

New York Jets +2 at Washington Racists
Adrian Peterson had a great game last week against a poor run defense.  The Jets have the NFL's second-best rush defense.

Arizona Cardinals +10 at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco just beat Arizona by 3 two weeks ago in Arizona.  Yes, this game is in San Francisco, but Arizona should still keep it close.

Oakland Raiders -11 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Can any non-fantasy football players name a Bengal?

New England Patriots -4 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I actually hate this line, and would hate either pick.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
Both teams have underperformed this  year, but the Rams are missing some offensive lineman.  Khalil Mack needs to control this game.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Los Angeles Chargers
I hate picking road favorites in intradivisional games, especially when one team is so up-and-down (the Chargers).  But, I feel even if Los Angeles gives Kansas City its best game, Kansas City is just too fast.

Byes:  Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -7 at Detroit Lions
Jeff Driskel.  I won my big bet last week giving up points to Jeff Driskel.  Hopefully I can do that again this week.  I wonder if the Lions think that Colin Kaepernick cannot play in the NFL while at the same time starting Jeff Driskel.

Last Week's Record:  7-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  72-77
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $190
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,040)

Picks of the Week

Travelling today, so no analysis.

Arizona Cardinals +10 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 v. Houston Texans in London

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Washington Racists + 10 1/2 at Buffalo Bill's

Miami Dolphins +3 v. New York Jets

Carolina Panthers -4 v. Tennessee Titans

Minnesota Vikings -4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Indianapolis Colts -1 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Oakland Raiders -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cleveland Browns -4 at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers -4 at Los Angeles Chargers

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Giants

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints

Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -4 at Los Angeles Chargers

Scoring Record/Update Coming Lat

Picks of the Week

Nowhere near the same NFL experience this week as last week, as almost nothing can compare with Lambeau Field, but at least I will be watching the games with a good friend that is a Charger fan; nothing like a good friendly rivalry.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings -17 v. Washington Racists
I never liked this line, but short week, Minnesota being home, and Washington being horrible meant I couldn't not take them.  All I needed was for them to not play soft and score a touchdown every now and then.

Chicago Bears -4 v. Los Angeles Chargers
No real reason for this, just hoping the "players only meeting" does something to spark the Bears.

Los Angeles Rams -12 v. Cincinnati Bengals
From Wembley Stadium, so no real home team, and both teams have been in London for quite some time.  Just going with the better team and hope that this plays out.

New Orleans Saints -11 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Another double digit spread, and it seems like there have been a thousand of them already this year.  Drew Brees is back, and that isn't nothing despite the great stewardship of Teddy Bridgewater in Bress' absence.  David Johnson isn't back, but Chase Edmonds looked good in his replacement role.  I'll take the Saints, I guess.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Such hit-or-miss teams on both sides of the field today, as we have seen some glimpses of great football from both of these teams, and some glimpses of horrible football from both these teams.  Tampa is 4th in scoring offense, 9th in passing offense and first in rushing defense. Tennessee is 4th in scoring defense and 8th in total defense, so their is some talent.  I'll go Tampa Bay for having some talent on both sides of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Denver is great on defense (3rd in passing defense and 4th in total defense), but is horrible on offense.  I will go with a more rounded Colts team behind Jacoby Brissett who is starting to realize that he really belongs as an NFL starting quarterback (QB Rating 101).  Plus, Denver's offensive line is horrible.

Seattle Seahawks -8 at Atlanta Falcons
I really hate taking a west coast team travelling west for the early games, but Matt Schaub is starting for an Atlanta team that just isn't very good anyway.  Passing offense is the only thing keeping Atlanta in any game (2nd in the NFL), and now their quarterback is likely out - I'll give the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Buffalo Bills
There is no real reason to select Philly in this game, other than the fact that they have so underachieved, that they need to win this game to possibly salvage their season.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. New York Giants
Detroit better beat the lowly New York Giants or else they fall further down the potential playoff ladder.  Doing it by more than a touchdown could show that they belong in the playoff conversation.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. New York Jets
It is pre-Halloween weekend, so no telling how many ghosts the Jaguars faithful will have floating around the stadium to try to punish Sam Darnold, but the ghosts of New York Jets past are likely restless after last week's ass-whipping at the hands of the Patriots.  It is possible that the Patriots destroyed the Jets' drive for the entire season.

San Francisco 49ers -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
This San Farncisco defense is outstanding (8th in rushing yards, 3rd in 3rd down conversion percentage, 2nd in scoring defense and total defense, and 1st in passing defense).  Not sure how Carolina scores enough points to stay in this game.

Cleveland Browns +11 1/2 at New England Patriots
Not sure New England has the same motivation as last week, and I am definitely not as sure that Cleveland turns the ball over as much as the Jets did - especially early.  I am not saying that Cleveland wins, just keeps it under the spread.

Oakland Raiders +6 1/2 at Houston Texans
Despite the lopsided score last week, Oakland drove the ball against Green Bay very well, even outgaining the Packers.  This offense is 2nd in 3rd down conversion and 8th in rushing, so there is the opportunity to keep the ball away from the potent DeShaun Watson-led Texans' offense.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.

Miami Dolphins +14 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Two touchdowns just seems to be a bit much, especially for a Mason Rudolph-led team.  Plus, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the master of the backdoor cover.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys

Big Bet
Green Bay Packers -5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it, especially with no Patrick Mahomes.
Need I say more?  Also considered, Detroit -6 1/2 v. New York Giants and Jacksonville -6 1/2 v. New York Jets.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  13-15
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  49-57
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  4-3
Last Two Weeks' Winnings (Losses):  ($50)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,265)

Picks of the Week

On a bus to Lambeau, so typing on a phone.  This means no analysis, but gotta get the picks in.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Miami Dolphins +17 at Buffalo Bills

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers -5 v. Oakland Raiders

Houston Texans +1 at Indianapolis Colts

New York Giants -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

Washington Racists +10 1/2 v.  San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints +4 at Chicago Bears

Los Angeles Chargers + 2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

Philadelphia Eagles +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

New York Jets +10 v. New England Patriots

BIG BET:  Los Angeles Chargers +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans - Why?   Ryan Tannehill
this
Byes:  Carolina, Ckeveland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay

Picks of the Week

Gotta love putting in my weekly picks entry this morning, and there is NFL football on!  Great start to a Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -17 v. New York Giants
Home team, short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers (from London)
Both teams are surprises this year.  Tampa - because they are playing tough with the breakout player of the year in Chris Godwin and the second best run defense in the country; Carolina - because of undefeated as a starter Kyle Allen.  I expect a close game so I am going to take the points.

Baltimore Ravens -11 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is the year for going against established betting rules, as a double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game usually a big No-No.  But, Cincinnati is 31st in rush defense and will try to stop the Ravens, that are second in rushing offense at 192.2 yards per game.  This does not bode will for the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Seattle Seahawks
Just as I espoused about not staying with traditional betting rules, here I go abiding by one in the face of a line that screams to take the Seahawks.  But, I will stay with the "west coast team travelling east to play the early game rarely cover" rule as I think Cleveland is due for a breakout game after being manhandled by the San Francisco 49ers last week.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points.  If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
I have gone back-and-forth on this game all day, and I have no idea which team to pick.  Take the points.

Washington Racists -4 at Miami Dolphins
Worst game of the year.  I cannot believe that I am taking Washington will giving points.  But, I feel strongly that the Dolphins could go 0-16 against the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
This game should be really exciting as both teams do some things on offense extremely well (Philadelphia 7th in scoring; Minnesota 3rd in rushing).  I will take the points in a game that could go either way.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Only because David Johnson isn't playing, but I could easily see losing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Los Angeles Rams
No Todd Gurley for the Rams, and the 48ers defensive line showed their mettle last week against the Browns.  I expect that to continue.  Strength against strength when the Rams have the ball as LA is second in passing offense and the 49ers are second in passing defense.

Tennessee Titans +2 at Denver Broncos
Denver just is not very good, despite their victory last week against the Chargers.  I am taking Tennessee because of their defense (3rd in 3rd down percentage; 6th in scoring defense; 9th in total defense; and 10th in passing defense).

Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Jets
The return of Sam Darnold, but i have no expectations for New York to perform well, as I have had mononucleosis, and there is no way he performed any football activities at any level until this week.  Dallas has fallen back to earth a bit, and the Jets are just what they need to reassert some type of dominance in a football game.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Delvin Hodges.  Enough said.  But, to counter his first NFL start, Philip Rivers will be making his 214th straight start.  At least Pittsburgh has Paxton Lynch to back up Hodges.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills. Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points.  If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.
I like a lot of my picks, but didn't love one.  I hate taking a road team as a big bet, but at least I am getting points.

Last Week's Record:  8-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  36-42
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($135)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,215)

Picks of the Week

I could not put two winning weeks in a row.  This is getting ugly.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Home team, short week.

Oakland Raiders + 5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
Talk about a west coast team heading east, as this game is in London, but Oakland flew to London after last week's game, whereas the Bears arrived mid-week.  That is good for the Bears because it means Roquan Smith made the trip.  Oakland has been playing week.  I will take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Two mediocre teams that have been playing fairly well.  Jacksonville almost covered against Kansas City, so I will take the points here.  Minshew looks like a legitimate NFL quarterback, though the jury is still out on Kyle Allen.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
Definitely a game that I do not want to watch.  Arizona's defense is just a bit worse than Cincinnati's, so on that basis, and the fact that it is a west coast team (Arizona does not observe daylight savings time, so they are three hours behind the east) travelling east playing the early game.

Houston Texans -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
Houston is 12th in rushing, and 10th in scoring defense, so I will take that over Atlanta, which is third in passing offense, but that is mostly because they are always behind and have to pass.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well.  They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense.  At the very least they should keep this game close.

New York Giants +5 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This bet is a combination of the fact that I don't think the Vikings' internal turmoil and feud helps them, and the fact that I loathe road favorites.  Minnesota is the better team, I just don't think they are in the right mindset to truly show that.

Philadelphia Eagles -14 v. New York Jets
Why not? Double digit favorites have done great this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Taking points at home in an intra-divisional game, yes please.  Especially given that Lamar Jackson has come down to earth a bit, and the Steelers pass rush seems to be picking up steam.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Tennessee Titans
Although Tennessee was quite impressive last week, but this Buffalo defense is STOUT.  They are 7th in rushing defense and 3rd down percentage, 5th in scoring defense, 4th in passing defense and 2nd in total defense.

New England Patriots -16 at Washington Racists
You would have thought that I would have learned my lesson last week taking the Patriots on the road as a favorite (they won, but did not cover).  But, the Racists are going with Colt McCoy, and all the talk about firing Jay Gruden coupled with the release of the Jay Gruden smoking pot with young women may mean this team is not thinking about football.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Phillip Rivers is doing his thing, and Melvin Gordon's true return makes this offense even more potent.  But, the defense is also 9th in scoring defense and 10th in total defense, meaning, they should win this game and cover at home.

Green Bay Packers +3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas either did not take advantage of a huge opportunity to knock of an NFC rival last week, and the fact that game was 12-10, leads me to believe that either the Cowboys make a statement and blow out the Packers, or this game is close.  I think Aaron Rodgers keeps this close.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 v. Indianapolis Colts
Ordinarily I would select the Colts here, but their best defender is out of the game, so I am going to give up more points than I really want to do here.

Cleveland Browns +4 at San Francisco 49ers
Cleveland may have finally figured out how to keep everyone involved in the offense, and I think the bye week occurred at an inopportune time for San Francisco, as the time off this early in the season may affect the momentum they had after winning their first 3 games.

Big Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still solid - even with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm instead of Drew Brees, but Tampa Bay has been playing well.  They are 8th in passing offense, 4th in total points, and 1st in rushing defense.  At the very least they should keep this game close.
Jameis Winston may have finally saved his job this season.


Last Week's Record:  6-9
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  28-35
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($555)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,080)

Picks of the Week

Finally a great week to stop the beginning of the season slide.  I would take going 11-5 every week, and I do mean every week.  But we can't this week because the byes start, so there are less games, making each game more important.  Which sucks because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thought Aaron Rodgers was going to throw that interception at the end of Thursday's game.  Puts me in a 0-1 hole.  Oh well, let's see how we do on Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Home team, short week.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams are surprisingly good defensively (Tennessee 6th and Atlanta 7th in Total defense), so I will take the points, especially if those points are going to the team that has looked marginally better than the other this season.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cleveland Browns
In the battle of the Cleveland Browns franchises, the old franchise has looked awesome this season, and the new franchise has looked, well, like the Browns.  Baltimore's defense is second against the run, meaning they can neutralize Nick Chubb, while offensively control the ball as the number 1 rushing club in the NFL.  Gimme the Ravens.

New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Julian Edelman has made the trip to Buffalo and although Buffalo has looked great in wins against bottom dwellers Jets, Giants and Bengals, not even a resurgent Frank Gore and the NFL's 5th best rushing offense will be happy to handle the league's best defense (#1 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, third down percentage and scoring defense).

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Detroit Lions
Yes, this is my third straight road favorite, but the undefeated Lions should get exposed against Kansas City as the explosive Chiefs and Pat Mahomes should feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense.

Houston Texans -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Houston has won two straight since their opening game loss to New Orleans, whereas the Panthers are coming off a solid win against Arizona after losing two straight.  Houston will keep there streak going as the Panthers will not be able to stop the Texans' rushing game.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I was initially going to pick Indianapolis before seeing the spread.  I really don't like this line, but I still feel compelled to give the points because Oakland is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, but also Indianapolis has looked really good this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -14 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Yes west coast team travelling east playing in an early game, but another rule trumps:  I am picking against the Dolphins until they show me they can cover any spread.  Miami is 0-3 so far against-the-spread this year, even though two of those spreads were over 20 points.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Racists
Ugh/  Please don't make me watch this game.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 at Chicago Bears
If last week's Bears offense is any indication of improvement (albeit against the Racists), this could be a really, REALLY good game.  I am gonna take the points in an intra-divisional game (and secretly hope that I lose this bet).

Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a gut feel, as the Seahawks have been up-and-down this year, playing poorly against bad teams (in wins against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and good against good teams (a loss to New Orleans).  None of their games have been decided by more than 6 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The undefeated Rams have been largely stagnant on offense this season (16th overall and 23rd in passing), whereas the Buccaneers have been surprisingly good on defense (6th in rush defense, 14th overall and 10th in 3rd down percentage).  Rams win, but Buccaneers keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville has seemed to play better given the Jalen Ramsey distraction, and Gardner Minshew II has a passer rating of 110.6 (as compared to Flacco's 87.4).  The Broncos - despite having Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, have 0 sacks this season.  If they do not put pressure on Minshew, he could be in line for a big road victory,so I will take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
This is the game the Cowboys should win if they want to be seriously considered as a Super Bowl contender.  Yes on the road, but an overall better roster given that Drew Brees is out.  Offensively Dallas is great AND balanced (#1 in third down conversions, #3 rush and total offense, #4 pass and scoring offense), whereas the Saints defense is the exact opposite (#20 3rd down conversions, #25 rush defense, #26 scoring defense, #28 total defense and #29 pass defense).

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I may not even watch this game.  Give me the points because Cincinnati is 3rd in pass offense and Pittsburgh is 30th in pass defense.  Ugh - horrible Monday night game.  At least it is likely one of these teams wins its first game of the season.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Patriots keep rolling and the Bills show they are not quite ready for prime time - but getting closer.

Last Week's Record:  11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  22-26
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $385
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($525)

Picks of the Week

Out of town today, and travelling tomorrow, so no time for analysis - just picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars 1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Dallas Cowboys -22 1/2 v.  Miami Dolphins
This line is too ridiculous and there is no reason to take it.  By the way, some betting sites have taken "Dolphins go 0-16" off the board.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bill's

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

Oakland Raiders +9 at Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots -22 1/2 v. New York Jets
Also too ridiculous a line to even exist.  Why not take it?

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Detroit Lions

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

New York Giants +6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston Texans +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

San Francisco 49ers  -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
I know, I know... no road favorites.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears -4 at Washington Racists

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Detroit Lions
Ezekiel Ansah will be playing his first game of the season ... but for Seattle, not Drtroit.

Last Week's Record:  7-9
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  11-21
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($910)

Picks of the Week

So, last week was HORRRRRRRIBLE.  I prefaced the column last week by saying that I did not pay attention at all to the preseason.  Perhaps I should have.  Not perhaps, I definitely should have.  It definitely would and could not have made last week's pics worse.  Believe me.  But, seriously, who had the Browns looking THAT bad.  Who had Cincinnati outgaining Seattle by over 200 yards? Seriously.  Well, hopefully I learned some things from last week, but am not going to super overreact to outcomes that were outside of the norm.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Never take the visiting team on a short week.  It didn't pan out this week, but it does over 70% of the time.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
There are a lot of competing rules at play in this game. Never take a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  And yes, I know that Arizona isn't "west coast", but they do not follow daylight savings time so they are in the Pacific time zone currently (technically Mountain Standard Time).  Bur, it is hard to cover a double digit spread, especially when it is basically two touchdowns.  So, I have a bid decision to make.  Baltimore will win, but not cover.  Arizona played a lot better in the fourth quarter last week, so I am going to say they are progressing a bit enough to keep this close. If they give David Johnson enough touches, they could keep the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands enough to keep this within the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Two teams that have really yet to define themselves, but things look OK for both as of  now.  As stated earlier, Cincinnati lost to Seattle, but outgained them by 200+ yards.  San Francisco won last week, but it was over an underwhelming Tampa Bay squad.  The west coast travelling east rule also applies, so I will take the Bengals.

Detroit Lions +2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams are coming off an overtime game last week, and were both underwhelming.  The Chargers pulled out a victory over Indianapolis Colts, while the Lions ended last week tied with the Arizona Cardinals.  Extra game time, plus the west travelling east, plus a road favorite gives me all the reason I need to select the Lions.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Selecting Green Bay after their defeat over the Chicago Bears last week would be the highest of overreactions, I think.  Green Bay actually did not look good in that win offensively, and Dalvin Cook is way more explosive than any single Chicago Bear.  I will take points in a divisional rivalry.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 8 1/2 at Houston Texans
The Texans looked absolutely great in last week's loss to New Orleans Saints, falling just to a last minute drive by Drew Brees (go figure).  And yes, the Jaguars are playing a rookie quarterback, but Gardner Minshew II looked good last week, and if this Jaguars defense plays the way they are supposed to play, this game could be a touchdown difference.

New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins
Honestly, this spread is absolutely ridiculous, and taking a road double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game is preposterous and the height of overreacting to last week's Patriot win and Dolphins loss.  This spread is so ridiculous I am going to take it.

New York Giants +2 v. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was underwhelming in its 17-16 defeat over the New York Jets while the Giants were soundly defeated by the Cowboys last week.  I feel the Bills will have a difficult time corralling Saquon Barkley (who doesn't).  The fact that the Giants are getting points at home means I will take them.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers lost and looked bad.  The Seahawks won, but looked worse.  Pacific team travelling east and playing the early game means I take the Steelers and hope their offense shows some life this week.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
This game is essentially a pick 'em among teams that surprised last week.  We are not sure if last week was an anomaly for one or both of the teams, but this is one way to find out. I will take the home team.

Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
This game is incredibly important for both teams if they have their minds set on making the playoffs.  Only 12% of the teams that have started 0-2 have qualified for the playoffs, and both teams enter this game after week 1 losses.  I will take the points at home, and hope that if my beloved Bears do win and I lose this bet, I can still be happy.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Oakland Raiders
So the Raiders absolutely surprised everybody last week defeating the Broncos.  But, Pat Mahomes is not Joe Flacco.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I love that the Saints are getting points here.  The Rams haven't quite looked the same in about 4 or 5 games (dating back to last year).

Philadelphia Eagles -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia has won 4 in a row against the Falcons. Given that the spread is so low, I will take the better team on a hot streak.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to watch this game.  On paper, the Browns should beat the Jets, and that was before Sam Darnold contracted mononucleosis.  Trevor Siemian does have an over-.500 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so it isn't like he is being randomly thrust into a game.  Cleveland looked awful last week. I don't expect them to look that bad, or commit 18 penalties, but I am not sure they are ready to be a touchdown favorite either.

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.
Picking a road favorite of any kind is against everything I believe in, but, this line is the one I like the most, so I have to take it given the shellacking I took last week.

Last Week's Record: 4-12
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  4-12
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($770)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($770)