Picks of the Week

Coming to the conclusion of fantasy football seasons, as this and next week end most normal leagues.  Good think that I have a few more weeks to continue building out of the hole in which I placed myself.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Damn Hook got me.

New York Giants +6 at Chicago Bears
There is no way that I am giving up almost a touchdown with Mitchell Trubisky right now.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.

Denver Broncos +4 at Buffalo Bills
Denver played the Minnesota Vikings tough last week on the road, losing only by four.  I know that each week is different in the  NFL, but I have to give some credence to the Broncos showing and take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is an intradivisional rivalry game, in which Pittsburgh is playing roughly zero of its starters.  OK, so not true on defense, but this game could end 6-0.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Miami has been playing tough.  I don't think Miami has a chance to win this game, but I could see it being 30-20.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
New Orleans has the third best rush defense, and given that Christian McCaffrey as a runner is one of the two offense weapons Carolina possesses - the other being Christian McCaffrey the receiver - New Orleans should beat Carolina handily.

New York Jets +3 v. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are a much better team, but the Jets are coming off two consecutive wins (albeit against the Washington Racists and New York Giants), and they are hosting a team travelling east and playing in the early game.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Despite the fact/betting rule that I just wrote about west coast teams travelling east and playing in the early game, Russell Wilson has been phenomenal in his career playing in the early game on the east coast, winning approximately 75% of the games.  Since Seattle is the betting underdog, I will take them to win.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Washington Racists
Jeff Driskel has been able to move the ball in the past two games, albeit mostly with his feet.  Given that Washington is 28th in the NFL against the run, Detroit should control the ball and win this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans
Just give me the points in this game.  I don't care which team is favored and why - just give me the points.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v Dallas Cowboys
Yes, something is amiss with this Patriots team, but the Cowboys have serious flaws also.  This game will be played in some serious weather conditions, which favors New England, and, the flu is rumored to be going through the Cowboys this week.  You know what else favors New England?  Bell Belichick over Jason Garrett.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers
Aaron Rodgers often plays big in prime time games.  And, despite the expected return of George Kittle, San Francisco is missing a tone of players in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Nobody loves Lamar Jackson as much as I, but Jalen Ramsey practically eliminates the deep passing game to receivers (M. Brown), and the defensive line eliminates the running backs.  That leaves Lamar's running, and short/intermediate passing to Mark Andrews.  That could win them the game, but this should be close..

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.
I really wanted to select the Jets here, but the Falcons have been playing great football since their coaching shakeup.

Last Week's Record:  6-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  78-85
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,170)

Playoffs Picks of the Week/Wild-Card Round

What a horrible start to the week, but managed to scramble to .500 for the week - and for the season - (but lost money due to the vig).  As we know, the playoffs are a whole different season.  Since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +8 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City escaped the doldrums of the middle of the season by winning their last 4 games in a row, often impressively.  The important statistic for me, though, is that Tennessee has the 4th best defense against the run, holding opponents to 88.8 yards per game.  Their strong run defense could hold the NFL's leading rusher in Kareem Hunt (1327 yards).  Even though Alex Smith did have the best passer rating of all eligible quarterbacks this year, he isn't likely to dominate a game, especially when the Titans have a relatively fresh Derrick Henry smashing into the 25th ranked rush defense of the Chiefs.  I will take the 8 1/2 points.

Kansas City Chiefs -$340 over Tennessee Titans (Bet $340 to win $100)
So, this is the worst money line bet on the board.  However, I have to take it because I don't believe that Tennessee can win this game outright.  If I am just trying to chase the money and get rid of my deficit, I take the Titans at +$255.  However, I don't think Tennessee wins, so I take the Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2
Both teams, at their average score a total of 46.8 points, and since neither defense overall is exemplary (excepting Tennessee's rush defense, but they are 25th against the pass).  Perhaps a 31-24 win by Kansas City to sweep all three bets.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams finished the season as the highest scoring team in the NFL, but were only 10th in total offense.  A lot of that came because of the exemplary kicking of Greg Zuerlein, who is out injured.  Meanwhile Atlanta seems like they have flown under the radar, despite the fact that they are basically in the same position as last year.  The offense wasn't exactly clicking this year, but they are in the playoffs and their 8th ranked defense in points allowed and 9th ranked defense in total yards could cause problems for the Rams.  The Falcons with points is dangerous.

Atlanta Falcons +$230 over Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $230)
For all of the reasons stated above, I expect Atlanta to outright beat the Rams.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48
Two high scoring teams should make this number rather easily.  I feel that at least one team will be in the 30s, if not both.

Buffalo Bills + 8 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo finished the season only 1 game behind Jacksonville, and a lot of that reason was LeSean McCoy.  Since it appears that he is going to play, I can only assume that he is fit to do LeSean McCoy type things.  That means he will perform against the 21st ranked rush defense in the NFL.  Ball control, and some scoring could keep this game close.

Jacksonville Jaguars -$335 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $335 to win $100)
It is still possible that LeSean McCoy is not 100%.  If that is the case, there is no real way Buffalo can beat the Jaguars.  The only chance they have is to jump out to a lead a force Blake Bortles to throw.  I don't see that happening.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 39
Would anybod y be surprised if this hit under, of course not.  But, if the winning team hits 24, the over should win.

New Orleans Saints -6 v. Carolina Panthers
These teams know each other too well, so it is really tempting to take the points, especially given 4th ranked rushing offense and 3rd ranked rushing defense.  However, these teams have played twice, and New Orleans won by a composite of 31 points.  The Saints' 10 point victory over Carolina occurred in week 13.   Saints just have too much firepower.

New Orleans Saints -$255 over Carolina Panthers (Bet $255 to win $100)
It goes without saying that if I think the Saints will cover the spread, that I would take them with the money line.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints OVER 47 1/2
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons +6 at Los Angeles Rams

If I feel that they will win outright, then I damn sure need to make them my big bet.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-124-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1210)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

What a week last week.  11-1, and the 1 is only because Houston scored a couple of touchdowns to hit the over.  I will take a lot of weeks like that one.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

No roundtable discussion this week, but Hopps has some interesting perspectives on today's games.

"The winners will be the Steelers and the Falcons.  Well, ... and really, really rich old white guys."

And, since Donald Trump is a supporter of the Patriots owner, coach and quarterback, and since Donald Trump has now succeeded Barack Obama as President of the United States the following quip is now actually true, "Orange IS the new black".

Onto the picks ...

Green Bay Packers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Obviously Atlanta's defense is markedly better than last year, but do you really think that they are going to be able to shut down Aaron Rodgers to the point where they win by more than a touchdown.  I think this is going to be a close, high scoring game.  Green Bay has won 8 in a row, and Atlanta has won 5 in a row, so both teams come into this game clicking.  Should be a great game for viewers, especially those that like lots of passing.

Atlanta Falcons -215 v. Green Bay Packers (Bet $215 to win $100)
Green Bay has won 8 in a row, but what are the chances they win 9?  Atlanta has quietly been the best team in the NFC all season, despite the hype given to Dallas because of the Cowboys' record.  They can pass, they can run, and they can rush the passer.  I look for them to make the Super Bowl, and leave Eugene Robinson at home.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (60) OVER
Who doesn't think this could end 41-37, or 37-31?  If both teams hit their averages in points scores, this over wins.  Plus, both quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots
This game should also be close, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown should all have big games.  Brady and Blount are no slouches themselves, and may even win this game, but I don't think they will cover.  Pittsburgh's defense is 12th in total yards, and 10th in points, which should keep them close.

New England Patriots -240 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $240 to win $100)
As close as Pittsburgh should keep this game, Tom Brady still finds a way to pull this one out.  The Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 9-2 against Pittsburgh, and they should continue that today.

Pittsburgh Steelers at at New England Patriots (49 1/2) OVER
Roethlisberger and Brady both throw for over 300 yards and have multiple touchdown passes each..

Last Week's Record:  11-1
Year-to-Date Record:  148-129-5
Playoff Record:  16-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1095
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $875
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($685)