Picks of the Week

Bets were horrible last week, but thank god for that crazy non-pass interference call, as my casino returned all Saints bets.  Saved me from a horrendously awful week. I will have to do some prop bets to try to catch up for the year however.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Gladys Knight National Anthem OVER 1:45
We can bet that Atlanta-native Gladys is going to want to really put this one out there for all to remember, especially given all of the pressure for her not to sing over solidarity with Colin Kaepernick.

Tom Brady OVER 350 yards passing +$229 (Bet $100 to win $229)
Brady has thrown for 900 yards each of the last two Super Bowls, and the act that the Patriots have been running with Sony Michel gives this bet extra value.  But as great as Michel has been, Belichick is going to rely on Brady when it comes down to a win or lose scenario.

Touchdowns in the first half OVER 1 1/2
As you might recall, last year the teams scored 4 touchdowns in the first half.

Sony Michel Rushing Yards - OVER 80.5
He has gone for over 100 in 3 of his last four games, including in both playoff games. Despite the names on the Rams defensive line, they have not been sufficient run stoppers this year.

Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards OVER 70.5
With the Rams using a 2-headed backfield of Gurley and C.J. |Anderson, I expect Belichick will try to take away Los Angeles's running game.  Although Stephon Gilmore has been amazing this year, Cooks could easily get over 70+ yards, whether the Rams are effective offensively or not.

Roughing the passer penalty will Occur +$105 (Bet $100 to win ($105)
It is called the Tom Brady rule, after all.

Total Touchdowns for the Patriots OVER 2 1/2

Total Touchdowns for the Rams OVER 2/12
Should be some good scoring in this game.

Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I just feel that the Patriots are better.  Even though C.J. Anderson has been a revelation, the fact that it seems like the Rams game plan no longer focuses on Todd Gurley might actually hurt them.  Plus, Belichick knows a bit about defense and is likely to concentrate on shutting the running game down anyway.  I bet against the Patriots two years ago when Atlanta choked away the win.  I bet against them last year when I just thought Philadelphia was better.  I do think New Orleans is better, but they are not here. So, the Pats rarely lose when they are better, and often win when they are not.

New England Patriots -130 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $130 to win $100)
If I think the Patriots are going to cover the spread, then I definitely think they are going to win outright.  Plus, I think only one Super Bowl has been decided by under 3 points, if I can believe the sports site I was reading earlier.  Rams just are not ready yet.

New England Patriots v. Los Angeles Rams OVER 55 1/2
I foresee lots of points being scored in this one.

Big Bet
Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?

Right?

Last Week's Record:  1-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  13-136-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($110)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1620)

Picks of the Week

OK - so I got hammered to end the season, but I don't care because the playoffs are here.  Actually, I do care, but it is my own fault for rushing through the picks in about 10-15 minutes of time.  The playoffs is where I make my money (hopefully), and I am much more prepared for this.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Houston Texans
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts.  Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs.  Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis.  Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston.  These games are close, so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff.  I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott.  While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6).  If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.

Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright.  Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense.  Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over.  I can picture that type of score here.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers.  But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here.  Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.

Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game.  The under it is.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection.  First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss.  Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close.  Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback.  There, I said it.

Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate.  Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner).  The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense.  And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league.  Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense).  The Bears should win this game at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores

Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($880)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

What a week last week.  11-1, and the 1 is only because Houston scored a couple of touchdowns to hit the over.  I will take a lot of weeks like that one.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

No roundtable discussion this week, but Hopps has some interesting perspectives on today's games.

"The winners will be the Steelers and the Falcons.  Well, ... and really, really rich old white guys."

And, since Donald Trump is a supporter of the Patriots owner, coach and quarterback, and since Donald Trump has now succeeded Barack Obama as President of the United States the following quip is now actually true, "Orange IS the new black".

Onto the picks ...

Green Bay Packers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Obviously Atlanta's defense is markedly better than last year, but do you really think that they are going to be able to shut down Aaron Rodgers to the point where they win by more than a touchdown.  I think this is going to be a close, high scoring game.  Green Bay has won 8 in a row, and Atlanta has won 5 in a row, so both teams come into this game clicking.  Should be a great game for viewers, especially those that like lots of passing.

Atlanta Falcons -215 v. Green Bay Packers (Bet $215 to win $100)
Green Bay has won 8 in a row, but what are the chances they win 9?  Atlanta has quietly been the best team in the NFC all season, despite the hype given to Dallas because of the Cowboys' record.  They can pass, they can run, and they can rush the passer.  I look for them to make the Super Bowl, and leave Eugene Robinson at home.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (60) OVER
Who doesn't think this could end 41-37, or 37-31?  If both teams hit their averages in points scores, this over wins.  Plus, both quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots
This game should also be close, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown should all have big games.  Brady and Blount are no slouches themselves, and may even win this game, but I don't think they will cover.  Pittsburgh's defense is 12th in total yards, and 10th in points, which should keep them close.

New England Patriots -240 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $240 to win $100)
As close as Pittsburgh should keep this game, Tom Brady still finds a way to pull this one out.  The Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 9-2 against Pittsburgh, and they should continue that today.

Pittsburgh Steelers at at New England Patriots (49 1/2) OVER
Roethlisberger and Brady both throw for over 300 yards and have multiple touchdown passes each..

Last Week's Record:  11-1
Year-to-Date Record:  148-129-5
Playoff Record:  16-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1095
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $875
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($685)

Picks of the Week

I started off on fire last week going 7-2 between Thursday and the early games.  That came screaching to a halt as I finished the weekend 0-5.  Ouch.  Time for a rebound week!

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Oakland Raiders
By now you are all familiar with the axiom "don't bet a road favorite".  That is even more true on Thursday nights, where the travelling team on the short week   seems to be getting housed every week - favorite or not.  Which is why I am going to live on the edge and take the Chiefs.

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Cleveland Browns
I took the first place Atlanta Falcons last week on a flyer, successfully, so I think that I might just do the same thing this week.  Remember kids, the Falcons currently sit in first place in their division with a whopping 4-6 record.

New York Jets +3 at Buffalo Bills
With the weather in northwest New York just absolutely abominable (See what I did there?!), this game may not be played in Buffalo, or it may not be played Sunday.  The whole thing is up in the air.  Nevertheless, the one thing that we know is that Buffalo has not been able to practice yeti this week with the travel ban throughout the city.  I'll take the Jets to win by a field goal from the Bigfoot of Nick Folk.

Chicago Bears -6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hopefully the two awful defeats before Chicago's bye week continues to motivate them to victory just like last week's win over the Vikings.  Although I expect the Chicago fans to give Tampa Bay's coach a whole lotta Love, I expect the Bears to defeat the Buccaneers in what looks like will be absolutely abysmal weather.  I just hope Mike Evans does not have a better game than Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 at Houston Texans
Let's see if the Bengals can figure out a way to keep J.J. Watt out of the end zone  Cincinnati has been playing much better since the shellacking they took at the hands of the New England Patriots. They should outscore Ryan Mallett.

Indianapolis Colts -14 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts feel like they need a big win, and Jacksonville coming to town can provide just that for them.

Green Bay Packers -9 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No team is playing as well as Green Bay right now.

New England Patriots -7 v. Detroit Lions
Well, except maybe New England.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 v. Tennessee Titans
Zach Mettenberger looks like he can be a real starting quarterback in the NFL, but Tennessee has nowhere near the weapons to compete with the Eagles.

St. Louis Rams +4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Rams shut down Denver's offense, and the Chargers have never been as good offensively as Denver, plus San Diego looks like it peaked way too early this year.

Arizona Cardinals + 6 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Potential turmoil bubbling under the surface of the Seahawks in the name of Marshawn Lynch.  Although Drew Stanton scares me, the Cardinals have been playing too well to be getting almost a full touchdown.

Denver Broncos -7 v. Miami Dolphins
Denver, even without a couple of weapons, will still be looking for revenge from last week's loss.  The Dolphins, who are fighting for a playoff spot, have the unfortunate distinction of being the next team on the schedule.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Washington Whatever Their New Name is Going To Be
Washington seems to be imploding.  Although the Aldon Smith situation was a little hairy for a team that wants to contend, Smith seems to have cleared things up, so I will take San Francisco at home.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at New York Giants
What is the over/under on interceptions?

Baltimore Ravens +3 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans still has some talent, but the are not the fearsome offensive juggernaut of the past few years.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

St. Louis Rams +4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Rams shut down Denver's offense, and the Chargers have never been as good offensively as Denver, plus San Diego looks like it peaked way too early this year.

Last Week: 7-7
Year-to-Date: 87-72-2
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-6
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($235)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $535