Picks of the Week

Two weeks without analysis, that ended up OK.  Let's see what happens this week with some actual pick analysis.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Short week road teams are not supposed to cover, much less win outright.

Chicago Bears +5 at Baltimore Ravens
I don not expect the Bears to win this game, but I don't fully trust the Ravens either.  The Bears played the Vikings relatively close last week, so I expect that to continue, and Baltimore is only averaging 18 points per game anyway, so it might be tough to cover.

Miami Dolphins + 13 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins look like a trainwreck right now, but Atlanta may not have anyone to catch the ball for them except for Julio Jones, who is  a great option, but it does help to have at least somebody else on the other side for the defense to have to cover.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings
I don't normally like taking road divisional favorites, but Green Bay has won 5 of their last seven at Minnesota.  Coming into this game, statistically speaking, the Vikings are more dominant on offense (9th in total yards to 16th), whereas it is the Packers who are more dominating on defense (6th in passing defense to 20th).  Aaron Rodgers likes those numbers.

Detroit Lions +5 at New Orleans
Raise your hands if you know that Detroit is outscoring New Orleans per game this year?  No you didn't.  Detroit is also third in rushing defense, going against a team that is trying to run the ball to take pressure off Drew Brees.  They are going to have to keep relying on Brees in this game.

New England Patriots -9 at New York Jets
The Jets have gone three-and-out on every opening drive this year.  If they do that to the Patriots, they could end up down 14-0 to a Patriots team that is 1st in passing and total yards, and 3rd in points.  For as much talent as people say the Jets have on their defense, they are 30th in rush defense and 25th in total  yards.

Washington Racists -10 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate this line.  I was hoping for 7 1/2 or 8.  But, I have to take Washington as San Francisco is travelling from the west coast to play an early game, which is murder on the road team historically.  That and San Francisco is bad offensively (22nd in total yards and 25th in points scored) and just as bad on defense (28th in total defenses and 22nd in points allowed).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Another road favorite, ugh.  Carson Palmer has led the Cardinals to the second most passing yards in the league, but he has almost as many INTs (5) as TDs (6).  Some of Palmer's yards can be attributed to the fact that they HAVE to pass, since they cannot run after the loss of David Johnson.  I am not sure that Adrian Peterson can help with that.  Palmer, and possible Peterson, are shells of their former selves.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is second in passing yards per game, with Dough Martin now back after a full game under his belt.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 v. L.A. Rams
The Jaguars - behind Leonard Fournette - are number one in the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, and the Rams are 27th in rushing defense.  Gurley will get his yards as well, but this game is about Leonard Fournette.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes the Chiefs are undefeated.  Yes the Steelers have not been as dominating as expected this year (see loss to Chicago Bears).  So, this looks like Kansas City in a romp.  However, Kansas City's defenses is 27th in total  yards allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed.  I think Antonio Brown is going to have a huge game.  Kareem Hunt can have a big game as well as the Steelers are 28th in rushing defense.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. L.A. Chargers
Offensively the Raiders have been horrible (30th in total yards; 26th in passing yards), but Derek Carr's return has to give them a spark and Amari Cooper some receptions, right?

Denver Broncos -13 v. New York Giants
Big line for a Sunday night game, but the Giants are horrible, and they lost almost every receiver on their roster.  It is time for the practice squad to try to step up against Denver's 1st ranked defense.  Won't happen.

Indianapolis Colts +7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The only winners in this game are those that do not watch.  Bad offenses (Indianapolis is 25th and Tennessee is 24th).  Bad defenses (Colts are 31st and Titans are 22nd).  I'll take the points, because, why not.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.
A lot of points to give up for a big bet, but the Texans are at home, whereas the Packers are giving up points on the road, and Denver is giving 13.  I also thought about Jacksonville, but its Jacksonville.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  16-13-1
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  37-38-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $155
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($705)