NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

THREE-QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 10

 

This isn't even fair at this point.  I mean, c'mon, JACOBY BRISSETT?  Really?!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin)

Although the Falcons struggle against the rush (here you go Jonathan Taylor fans), they are overall pretty stout (3rd overall), so I will take the points in this one in what should be a close game.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. New York Giants

None of us actually believe this, but the Bears offense is carrying this team.  They are 2nd in rushing offense, 4th in total offense, 6th in scoring offense, and 10th in passing offense.  And this Giants defense is barely better than Cincinnati's, and their offense is way worse.

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

I really don't know what to think about this game.  All I can honestly say is that I feel that Minnesota might suffer a letdown after last week's emotion victory over their divisional rivals - the Detroit Lions and Baltimore needs to put together a win streak to make the playoffs.  

New England Patriots +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically, New England scores more points than Tampa Bay, and they give up less points than Tampa Bay does.  And, since they are the road team here, they are getting points.  I'll take 'em.

Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, I know CJ Stroud is out, but to be honest, he wasn't having that great of a year anyway, as the team is 19th in passing offense and 17th overall.  This pick is about taking the points at home in an intra divisional game, and Houston's defense (1st overall and in scoring, 4th against the pass nad 6th against the run).

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets were absolutely decimated by the trade deadline, losing Quinnen Williams (no surprise) and Sauce Gardner (SURPRISE!) from a defense that was already 27th in scoring defense and 16th in total defense.  Cleveland is the beneficiary of those trades.  I am shocked Breece Hall is still there.  If Braelon Allen wasn't hurt, Hall might have been traded too!

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Speaking of surprises, how is Alvin Kamara still on the Saints?  Carolina, behind Offensive Player of the Year candidate Rico Dowdle, is in the playoff hunt!

Miami Dolphins +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This is a lot of points for an intra-divisional home team to give up, so I will take them, despite the fact that Buffalo's offense is the best in the league, and Miami's is 27th.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Four reasons here:  (1) The Jacoby Brissett shine won't surprise Seattle like it did Dallas; (2) Seattle is going to want to play with it's new offensive playmaker - Rashid Shaheed - so expect a couple of big plays; (3) Shaheed's speed is going to open up things A LOT for JSN; and (4) short week for Arizona.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I absolutely hate this pick, but I just don't like picking road intra-divisional favorites unless I absolutely have to do so.  Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle can probably score enough to keep this close, although I expect the Rams to win, maybe 27-24?

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

The Lions are going to be angry after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week and the Commanders are going to be angry that they have to start Marcus Mariota again!

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Although they sit in first place in the AFC North, Pittsburgh's numbers are brutal.  They are 30th in Total Offense AND Total Defense, and on top of that they are last in the league in pass defense, against Justin Herbert's 6th best passing offense.  The Chargers aren't shabby on the defensive side of the ball either, being 6th in Total Defense.

Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay's defense is stout (5th against the run and 9th against the pass for 5th overall), and Philadelphia still looks like a paper tiger, at least until Saquon Barkley gets back on track.  And, with the way their respective divisions are playing, Green Bay just needs this more.

Byes:  Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Brock Bowers' returns makes the Raiders offense a bit more lethal, but honestly, my big bet selections have been awful this year, so let's just get it out of the way early this week.

Last Week Record: 7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 61-74

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-7

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,895) 

NFL Mid-Season Review

So the NFL has reached its mid-season.  Nine of the eighteen weeks are complete, and each team has played at least 8 games, and some 9, and 8 1/2 games is halfway through the season.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season, with each team's surprise of the year.  The parenthetical at the end of season rankings was that team's position in the quarter-season review. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-2) This team was 5-0 during the second quarter of the season (and has won 6 games in a row to push to the top of the division.  Although I fully expect the Bills to end up here at the end of the year, New England is a strong contender for the playoffs,  The big surprise is that this team is 8th in scoring without a significant contribution from Trayveon Henderson, who, although the team's leading rusher with 283 yards, has only 13 more rushing yards than Drake Maye.

Buffalo Bills (6-2) A two-game losing streak - to New England and Atlanta - going into their bye dismantled what looked like an AFC juggernaut.  Their biggest surprise is that this team is middle-of-the-pack in passing offense (14th).  

Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins are 2-7 and sit in third place.  The biggest surprise is that they are not in last.

New York Jets (1-7)

Awful.  The biggest surprise is that they have not started trading veterans (Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams) yet.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Mike Tomlin must be that good of a coach (that we knew), but this is his best job yet.  That is because the surprise is that the Steelers are in first place while being ranked 30th in offense and defense.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Is this the scariest 3-5 team in NFL history?  injuries hurt, but the biggest surprise is how poor this defense is (27th overall).

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

The Joe Burrow injury is devastating.  Surprise is that Joe Flacco is making this team exciting.

Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Among the worst teams in the league, even with the second-best defense in the NFL.  That should have accounted for 1 or 2 more wins.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

They have played exceptionally well this year.  And are just a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers away from being 8-1.  Jonathan Taylor's success isn't a surprise, so his candidacy for MVP is understandable, but Daniel Jones being a top candidate?  Wow.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

A 2-2 quarter has flattened out the Jaguars curve, but Jacksonville is currently in playoff position if the season ended today.  The biggest surprise?  A virtually non-existent Brian Thomas, Jr. who has 30 receptions, only 5 more than Parker Washington.

 

Houston Texans (3-5)

Still one of the most disappointing teams in the whole league.  Biggest surprise - Woody Marks.  Not that he is surprising with his play, but the surprise is that the Texans have had to resort to Woody Marks.

Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Well, the are no longer winless!  The surprise is Chimere Dike, who is developing into a solid wide receiver, and is already one of the best kick returners in the NFL.  He has almost 350 more yards in kickoff returns than the next highest returner, and has the highest per return average as a punt returner.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Broncos went 5-0 in the second quarter, and are solidifying themselves as a Super Bowl candidate.  The surprise, they are doing this with only the 14th-best total offense in the NFL.  If this offense actually gets on track, watch out.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Oh what could've been with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.  The surprise is that they are the second-rated offense without those two bookends!

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

The surprise is that they are third in their division!!!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

No surprise that they are bad, the surprise is that they are only giving the ball to Ashton Jeanty 15 times a game.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

At the quarter mark, I noted the statistical fallacy of the Eagles being 4-0; and they went 2-2 the last quarter.   The biggest surprise?  That the Tush Push was ruled forward progress stopped instead of a fumble against the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)

This defense is really bad, which limits the ceiling on this team, yet they still are buyers at the deadline acquiring Logan Wilson from Cincinnati.  Surprise!!!

Washington Commanders (3-6)

A little regression from last year was to be expected, but not this much!  The surprise is the second injury to Jayden Daniels!!!  Perhaps let the running backs run?!

New York Giants (2-7)

Not a good team, but not as bad as their record.  The surprise is the excitement for Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo!!!  (Who am I kidding, we knew the over-exaggerated excitement for Skattebo was coming!).

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NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Went 3-1 the last quarter, but they haven't looked particularly sharp.  A surprise loss to the Panthers could be the difference between a division title and traveling on wildcard weekend.

Detroit Lions (5-3)

This team can look dominating, or disappointing.  I still think they are the class of the division.  Too much firepower.

Chicago Bears (5-3)

Could the Bears be making a run for the playoffs?  The surprise is that despite a lot of negative press coming from Bears fans, his numbers are virtually identical to those of Baker Mayfield, who some people have as an outside-MVP candidate.

Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Their defeat of the Detroit Lions brings this division much closer from top-to-bottom.  The biggest surprise is even the Vikings don't know which JJ McCarthy will show up from quarter-to-quarter:  the one that plays essentially like a first-year starter, or the one that comes-from-behind in the fourth quarter.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

Tampa Bay is playing very consistently, and is 3-1 in each of the first two quarters.  The big surprise is that Richaad White is the leading rusher, despite not having a rusher with over 300 yards on the season.

Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The surprise is that Carolina is 5-4!!!

Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

The inverse of the Carolina Panthers, the surprise is that Atlanta is only 3-5even with the number 3 ranked defense!

New Orleans Saints (1-8)

The surprise is that Alvin Kamara is still on the Saints.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Playing very well.  This organization knows how to find QBs tossed away by other franchises (first Geno Smith, now Sam Darnold).  Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the entire NFL in receiving yards.  Surprising that it looks smart to have traded DK Metcalf!

Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Might actually be the best team in the division.  Surprising that Matt Stafford is an MVP front-runner!

San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

In playoff contention despite running through wide receivers like the Kardashians ... run through wide receivers!

Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

Surprised they haven't pulled the plug on the Kyler Murray Experiment yet.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (8)

2.  Denver Broncos (7-2) (14)

3.  New England Patriots (7-2) (16)

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-2) (1)

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (5)

6.  Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (9)

7.  Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (7)

8.  Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (2)

9.  Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (12)

10.  Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (3)

11.  San Francisco 49ers (6-3) (6)

12.  Detroit Lions (5-3) (4)

13.  Chicago Bears (5-3) (18)

14.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (10)

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (11)

16.  Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (13)

17.  Carolina Panthers (5-4) (29)

18.  Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (17)

19.  Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (22)

20.  Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (23)

21.  Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (19)

22.  Houston Texans (3-5) (24)

23.  Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (20)

24.  Washington Commanders (3-6) (15)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (21)

26.  Cleveland Browns (2-6) (28)

27.  Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (25)

28.  New York Giants (2-7) (26)

29.  Miami Dolphins (2-7) (27)

30.  New Orleans Saints (1-8) (31)

31.  New York Jets (1-8) (30)

32.  Tennessee Titans (1-8) (32)

Biggest Movers:  New England Patriots +13, Denver Broncos +12, Carolina Panthers, +12, Washington Commanders -9, Detroit Lions -8, Los Angeles Chargers -7

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive MVP - Byron Young, Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

NFL Picks of the Week

Basically even last week, which is a shame because at one point I was 5-2 in the early games midway through the fourth quarter.  Then, in the span of less than a minute, the scores in the early games went from 5-2 in my favor to 2-5 against, and I almost never recovered.  A good start to this week with the Dallas victory over New Orlenas.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +7 v. New Orleans
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off.

New York Giants +4 v. Chicago Bears
Saquon Barkley is laboring in turmoil on a bad team, that gets to play against Chase Daniel as quarterback.  I just think that with Chicago's defense, this ends up being a low-scoring, close game.

Baltimore Ravens +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore wins, and Joe Flacco never starts for the Ravens again.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Now I am not going crazy here, I do not expect a Lions victory.  But, we do have the west coast team travelling west playing the early kickoff, so I expect the Rams to be a little sluggish, as history suggests.  Lions score twice late for a back door cover.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Arizona's offense is remarkably consistent.  They rank 32nd in total offense, rush offense, pass offense, points scored and 3rd down conversion %.  Why on earth would I pick them?  Green Bay is struggling a bit, and it seems as if it is inevitable that Mike McCarthy is fired after the season.  Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, but Arizona does have the 4th best pass defense.  Green Bay wins, but maybe 28-17.

Cleveland Browns +6 at Houston Texans
The Browns have been playing some tough football, and although I do believe Houston wins this game, Cleveland keeps it close.  They have the 8th best rushing offense, and if Baker Mayfield woke up dangerous, Houston better be ready to play.  Houston meanwhile is 4th in rushing offense, so expect both teams to try to control the clock, which should keep the scoring down, and close.

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cody Kessler is starting.  Colin Kaepernick's collusion case gets stronger and stronger.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Is it just me or has Miami been more lackadaisackal since Tannehill returned?  Buffalo with Josh Allen is at least playing like they care and are trying to win.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Awful for me to pick a road favorite in a divisional game especially, but Carolina need this win, whereas Tampa needs to finish up with Jameis Winston and find a new "quarterback of the future".

Oakland Raiders +14 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it.  But, with the turmoil in Kansas City surrounding Kareem Hunt's dismissal, I have to take the 2 touchdown spread.  Give me those points!

New York Jets +10 at Tennessee Titans
So many double digit spreads this week.  The Jets defense is second in 3rd down conversion percentage, so if that keeps up, Tennessee won't be able to sustain drives.  Without sustained drives, less points.  I will take 10.

Minnesota Vikings -5 at New England Patriots
I will have to take a flyer on this one, as everything except Minnesota's passing game is telling me to take New England.  The Patriots are 25th in pass defense, and the Vikings are 6th in passing offense.  At the very least, once again, I root for a close game.

San Francisco 49ers +10 at Seattle Seahawks
I am done with not trusting Russell Wilson.  With him  behind center, Seattle will make the playoffs this year, and with a win today go to 7-5.  However, 10 points in a divisional game is once again too much for me to give.  San Francisco's defense is a respectable 11th overall, and 10th in rushing defense.  That should keep it close enough to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Best game of the day.  I am taking the points and I hope this is a good old fashioned shootout, despite the fact that it is the 6th and 7th best overall defenses.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Racists
There is no real reason for the Eagles to be favored by 6.  They have not played in any way shape or form like they have earned the right to give up 6 points.  Everything about this game says to pick Washington, which is why I am going with the Eagles.

Big Bet
Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

For a big bet, I always tell myself to try to pick a home team, but if you pick a visiting team, make sure you are getting points.  What I am getting is Jeff Driskel - so that counts.

Last Week's Record:  7-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  87-80-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)

Picks of the Week

I am in Chicago to watch my sister run in the marathon, which starts in an hour, so no analysis or reasoning, just picks.



My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.



New England Patrionts -10 v. Indianapolis Colts


Buffalo Bills + 5 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans


Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. New York Giants
(I feel I might regret this one).




Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Miami Dolphins


Baltimore Ravens -3 at Cleveland Browns


Green Bay Packers +1 at Detroit Lions


Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars


Denver Broncos -1 at New York Jets


Atlanta Falcons +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers


Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Oakland Raiders


Minnesota Vikings +3 at Philadelphia Eagles


Arizona Cardinals +3 at San Francisco 49ers


Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks


Houston Texans -3 v. Dallas Cowboys


New Orleans Saints -6 v. Washington Racists


Big Bet
Denver Broncos -1 at New York Jets






Last Week's Record: 8-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 31-29-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $85
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($120)

The Patron Saint Lives

The Patron Saint - Adam "Pacman" Jones lives!!!  He was signed late in the preseason by the Denver Broncos to a one year deal, where he will serve as the primary punt returner and third/fourth corner/defensive back mentor.  Yes, I said mentor.  Don't @me!!!

In Denver, Jones is reunited with head coach Vance Joseph, who served as Pacman's defensive coordinator in 2014 and 2014 when Jones was a Pro-Bowler, having also been named All-Pro in 2014.

PacMan, the 6th pick from West Virginia, is one of 5 remaining first round draft picks from the 2005 NFL draft that is still currently playing in the NFL - a list that includes LBs Thomas Davis (14th pick - Georgia) and Derrick Johnson (15th pick - Texas) and more importantly QBs Alex Smith (1st pick - Utah) and Aaron Rodgers (24th pick - California).  This list also includes standout ESPN/SEC Network analysts Marcus Spears and David Pollock.  Cornerbacks from this first round also included Antrel Rolle (8th pick - Miami), Carlos Rogers (9th pick - Auburn), Fabian Washington (23rd pick - Nebraska) and Marlin Jackson (28th pick - Michigan).

So, how did Jones fare in his initial game with the Broncos?  Jones returned 2 punts for 9 yards (4.5 average) and on defense he had 2 solo tackles - and AN INTERCEPTION!!!  All in a 27 - 24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Long live the Patron Saint!!!

Picks of the Week

Picked 3 of the 4 winners last week, but unfortunately, missed most of the spreads.  So I am changing my rules a bit.  I will be counting the straight up  money line bets as well as the spread for the playoffs.  This isn't just because of last week, but because there are only four games this week, and less going forward.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at New England
I know that we are never supposed to doubt Belichick and Brady, but this New England team is really beat up, plus, Kansas City is solid in every aspect of the game.   Sure the Maclin injury huts, but they rely less on 1 single person than any team in the league.

Arizona v. Green Bay
It is chic to say that Green Bay's offense is back after last week, but they didn't play Arizona last week.

Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers
They played a fairly even game earlier in the year, and Seattle's offensive line, and team, are playing much better now.

Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think any starters remain on Pittsburgh's offense.

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at New England Patriots
If I expect Kansas City to win outright, then they have to cover, right?

Green Bay Packers + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay is playing better than earlier in the year, especially Aaron Rodgers.  I look for Mike McCarthy to try to run the ball more and keep Arizona's offense off the field.  It won't be enough to win.  Carson Palmer should be getting a lot of consideration for MVP (along with Cam Newton).

Seattle Seahawks + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
As in the Kansas City game, I think the underdog is going to win outright.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
For this game to stay close, Pittsburgh's defense is going to have to outscore Denver's offense.  Won't happen.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Nobody is playing for Pittsburgh.

Last Week's Winners:  3-1
Playoff Winners to Date:  3-1
Last Week's Record:  4-7
Playoff Record:  4-7

Year-to-Date Record: 128-116-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-5
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($535)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $795

NFL Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 1 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  I was not at my usual bar(s), so I did not see as much as usual, but still!

Game of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles 30 at. Indianapolis Colts 24.  Both teams moved the ball plenty, but not enough that it looked like the defenses did not matter.  Some exceptional performances by backup running backs (Darren Sproles and Ahmad Bradshaw), and a last minute drive to win the game, on the road, at the buzzer by a field goal.  All of this in prime time on a Monday Night.  Jon Gruden's head probably exploded.

Best Team Performance

Chicago Bears.  The Bears win at a seemingly more talented San Francisco, with their hobbling wide receivers Brandon Marshall (3 TDs) and Alshon Jeffrey the difference in the second half, and losing the heart of their usually unimpressive defense (Charles Tillman).  Jay Cutler leads an impressive comeback, and the defense, including 2 interceptions by first round draft pick Kyle Fuller contributes mightily.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Minnesota Vikings.  Without Adrian Peterson the team jumped out to a 7-0 lead, and then proceeded to lose to the Patriots 30-7.  For reasons not related to on-the-field play, Minnesota never had a chance this game.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

DeMarco Murray, RB - Dallas- With all due respect to Aaron Rodgers, who absolutely carved up the New York Jets secondary, Murray was the most impressive offensive player.  After a game in which people wrote off the Cowboys due to turnovers by Tony Romo in week 1, Murray took the ball, rushed for 167 yards and resurrected the Cowboys' hopes for the season.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)
Kyle Fuller, CB - Chicago Bears. Two absolutely game turning/changing interceptions coming off the bench to replace the injured Charles Tillman.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Cody Parker, K - Philadelphia Eagles.  Hit a 36 yard field goal as time expired to win the game on the road in Indianapolis.

Goat of the Week

Adrian Peterson, RB - Minnesota Vikings - Inactivated against the Patriots after being indicted for charges in Texas related to child abuse of his kid for hitting the four year old with a switch, and this was not the first incident of this.  The Vikings started the season with a promising win, and now their year is completely over.

Hit of the Week

San Diego Chargers.  The entire team came out and hit the "toughest" team in the NFL - the Seattle Seahawks - in the mouth, and the Seahawks did not answer the bell after that.

Breakthrough Performance

Kyle Fuller, CB - Chicago Bears. He showed exactly why the Bears made him a first round pick, and will be the starter for the remainder of the season.

Finally

Cincinnati Bengals Coaching Staff - Giovanni Bernard had more carries that Andy Dalton had pass attempts (27-23) in a 24-10 win over the Falcons.  That may be a bit high for Bernard every game, but the equation seems about right.  Cincinnati can win it all if it keeps this up.

Impact Injury

Kansas City Chiefs - Lots of big names out (Robert Griffin III, Knowshon Moreno) out for extended periods of time, and lots of big names (Gerald McCoy, Ryan Matthews, A.J. Green) out for unspecified short periods of time, but no team lost more than the Chiefs, who after losing LB Derrick Johnson for the season last week, lost RB Jamaal Charles and S Eric Berry for unknown time periods this week.  The Chiefs are officially done.

Team Rising

Buffalo Bills - One of only 7 teams to start the season 2-0, and with the Jets and the Moreno-less Dolphins in their division, can safely think Wild Card possibilities, at least for now.

Team Falling

Pittsburgh Steelers - Thoroughly dominated by the Baltimore Ravens in a division game; a Ravens team that is not stellar by any stretch of the imagination.

Best Teams
(All undefeated teams will be top ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts)

1. Denver Broncos
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Carolina Panthers
5. Houston Texans

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be top ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts)

32. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Oakland Raiders
30. New York Giants
29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28. Kansas City Chiefs

Middle Teams

15.  Detroit Lions
16.  Baltimore Ravens
17.  New York Jets
18.  Tennessee Titans

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4. San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills - After what the Chargers did to the Seahawks last week, they have become a chic playoff pick.  The Bills being undefeated makes this game really interesting.  Which team makes a big jump to the playoff picture, the Bills who could be 3-0, or the Chargers, with Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates looking as good as they ever have together?  Biggest game the  Bills have played in a long time.

3. San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals - Before last week, the 49ers were thought to be the only real competition for the Seahawks, but they were exposed a bit, especially by Chicago's big receivers.  Too bad Arizona doesn't have any of those - oh wait, they do.  The Cardinals defense could be great, even though they are missing Darnell Dockett for the season.  The winner gets the first leg up in the NFC West.

2. Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions - Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson and Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson could produce 1,000 yards of offense.  Which defense will make a plan to win the game?

1. Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks - Only the sixth time a Super Bowl rematch has occurred the following season.  Can Emmanuel Sanders, DeMarcus Ware and Aqib Talib make a difference this time around?  Seattle is virtually unbeatable at home.

Trivia

With the Colts loss to the Eagles on Monday night, Andrew Luck just missed the chance to set the record for most games by a quarterback without consecutive losses to start a career?  Who holds that record?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

I did not watch the NFL games at a Sports Bar, but I was recently at another sports bar with some college games on television, so I will review that one.

Murray Brothers Caddyshack Restaurant, 455 South Legacy Trail #E106, St. Augustine, FL

As you can probably guess, Caddyshack is a Caddyshack themed restaurant, owned by the Murray brothers, Brian Doyle-Murray the predominant writer of the movie - now on the television comedy Sullivan and Son - and Bill Murray being the most famous.  Complete with the servers wearing caddy bibs with various golf terms on the back, to the hostess stand being made from the front of a golf cart with the word "Starter" on the front, their is no mistaking the theme.

The service was friendly and good enough, but nothing astounding, with the waitress service at the table much better than the bartender.  I did not remember either the waitress's name, or the bartender's name, as I was not expecting to do this review on Caddyshack.  The bartender seemed more concerned with cleaning, even 2 hours before closing, than he did the games on the television, as he did not even know the primary sports channels in order to change games after one set was completed.  He was fairly attentive to the guests though, so that is OK.

Although the bar seems as if it is sports oriented, it really is not, as their were not great viewing lines to the televisions in order to watch the games, even though each was programmed to show a different game (except once one ended and whatever the next program was, was shown).  So for a sports bar, the bar was nothing special.  We ordered some local craft brews, which were not new to our group, but they were still pretty tasty.  Not that big of a selection overall, however.

For food, the chicken nachos were great, and more than enough for the four of us to share.  The burgers, mostly Chicago themed, were delicious, and I would definitely order them again.  As stated earlier, I did not expect to be doing this review, so I did not vary all of the orders of the group, nor did we share tastings in order to provide more information.  I would have tried the Chicago dog or the bratwurst, had I been thinking ahead.

Generally the restaurant/bar was clean, although the bartender used hot water to melt all of the ice in the beer bin, but kept the beers in the bin while he did that.  Pretty sure that could affect the taste of the beer.

Overall, a decent experience, but nothing special.  A big bonus for being less than 1/4 mile from where we were staying, though that has nothing to do with the restaurant!

Service - AFC West
Drinks - AFC West
Food - NFC South
Cleanliness - NFC South
Overall - Oakland Raiders (4th in the NFC West) - Good, but nothing special.

Rating System Best to Worst:  NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, AFC East, NFC East

Trivia Answer

The first quarterback to defeat all 32 NFL franchises was BRETT FAVRE.