NFL Picks of the Week

Basically even last week, which is a shame because at one point I was 5-2 in the early games midway through the fourth quarter.  Then, in the span of less than a minute, the scores in the early games went from 5-2 in my favor to 2-5 against, and I almost never recovered.  A good start to this week with the Dallas victory over New Orlenas.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +7 v. New Orleans
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off.

New York Giants +4 v. Chicago Bears
Saquon Barkley is laboring in turmoil on a bad team, that gets to play against Chase Daniel as quarterback.  I just think that with Chicago's defense, this ends up being a low-scoring, close game.

Baltimore Ravens +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore wins, and Joe Flacco never starts for the Ravens again.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Now I am not going crazy here, I do not expect a Lions victory.  But, we do have the west coast team travelling west playing the early kickoff, so I expect the Rams to be a little sluggish, as history suggests.  Lions score twice late for a back door cover.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Arizona's offense is remarkably consistent.  They rank 32nd in total offense, rush offense, pass offense, points scored and 3rd down conversion %.  Why on earth would I pick them?  Green Bay is struggling a bit, and it seems as if it is inevitable that Mike McCarthy is fired after the season.  Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, but Arizona does have the 4th best pass defense.  Green Bay wins, but maybe 28-17.

Cleveland Browns +6 at Houston Texans
The Browns have been playing some tough football, and although I do believe Houston wins this game, Cleveland keeps it close.  They have the 8th best rushing offense, and if Baker Mayfield woke up dangerous, Houston better be ready to play.  Houston meanwhile is 4th in rushing offense, so expect both teams to try to control the clock, which should keep the scoring down, and close.

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cody Kessler is starting.  Colin Kaepernick's collusion case gets stronger and stronger.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Is it just me or has Miami been more lackadaisackal since Tannehill returned?  Buffalo with Josh Allen is at least playing like they care and are trying to win.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Awful for me to pick a road favorite in a divisional game especially, but Carolina need this win, whereas Tampa needs to finish up with Jameis Winston and find a new "quarterback of the future".

Oakland Raiders +14 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it.  But, with the turmoil in Kansas City surrounding Kareem Hunt's dismissal, I have to take the 2 touchdown spread.  Give me those points!

New York Jets +10 at Tennessee Titans
So many double digit spreads this week.  The Jets defense is second in 3rd down conversion percentage, so if that keeps up, Tennessee won't be able to sustain drives.  Without sustained drives, less points.  I will take 10.

Minnesota Vikings -5 at New England Patriots
I will have to take a flyer on this one, as everything except Minnesota's passing game is telling me to take New England.  The Patriots are 25th in pass defense, and the Vikings are 6th in passing offense.  At the very least, once again, I root for a close game.

San Francisco 49ers +10 at Seattle Seahawks
I am done with not trusting Russell Wilson.  With him  behind center, Seattle will make the playoffs this year, and with a win today go to 7-5.  However, 10 points in a divisional game is once again too much for me to give.  San Francisco's defense is a respectable 11th overall, and 10th in rushing defense.  That should keep it close enough to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Best game of the day.  I am taking the points and I hope this is a good old fashioned shootout, despite the fact that it is the 6th and 7th best overall defenses.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Racists
There is no real reason for the Eagles to be favored by 6.  They have not played in any way shape or form like they have earned the right to give up 6 points.  Everything about this game says to pick Washington, which is why I am going with the Eagles.

Big Bet
Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

For a big bet, I always tell myself to try to pick a home team, but if you pick a visiting team, make sure you are getting points.  What I am getting is Jeff Driskel - so that counts.

Last Week's Record:  7-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  87-80-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)