Picks of the Week

 

UGLY, UGLY, UGLY!!!  That is the only way to explain last week's results.  And this week is likely to be even worse with so many starters not even playing, some teams with incentives, and a lot with not.  Who even knows.  Prayers and luck this week, for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Baltimore Ravens

Yes, I know I should always pick the home team on a short week, but Pittsburgh needs a win to qualify for the playoffs - with some help - and Baltimore is sitting Lamar Jackson and other starters, and even playing Laquon Treadwell.

Indianapolis Colts +1 /2 v. Houston Texans

Both teams have something to play for, as the winner is in the playoffs, whereas the loser is not.  Can't take the visiting team on a short week in both games, and this game should be incredibly close.  Now if only Tyler Goodson holds onto the damn ball!!!  (Yes I know, it was thrown a bit behind him too.)

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

The winner of this game wins the NFC South at 8-8 IF Carolina manages to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so this game is important.  Sains have won 3 of their last 4, including defeating Tampa Bay last week; whereas the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4, including being destroyed by the Bears last week and a 9-7 loss to the hapless Panthers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Simply put, there is just too much at stake for Jacksonville, as a win gives them the AFC South title, whereas a loss puts them out of the playoffs entirely.  Jacksonville defense has been horrid this year  (22nd overall and 27th against the pass), but Tennessee's offense has been equally putrid (27th overall and 28th passing).  With Trevor Lawrence and Will Levis both hobbling, could it come down to C.J. Beatherd v. Ryan Tannehill?  I think Calvin Ridley finally shows up, and the Jaguars win, even as favorites on the road.

Detroit Lions -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Does Dan Campbell strike you as someone that lets his foot off the gas?  Yeah, me neither.

New England -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 at Carolina Panthers

This game is way too eeerily similar to the Jaguars situation.  Buccaneers win and their are the NFC South champions; lose and they go home.  Also playing the basement-dweller in their division.  I imagine that one of these two games is an upset, although I cannot pick either of them to happen.  Baker Mayfield rolls.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Jeff Driskel starting fot the Browns as Cleveland is stiting a number of its star players.  Jake Browning might be playing for a potential starting job on another team for next year, or at least a prime backup role on a squad with an oft-injured QB.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears are playing better than anybody, having won 5 of 7, and in those two losses had double-digit leads into the 4th quarter.  But, the Packers have the chance to make the playoffs.  And no matter how much ever Bears player and fan hates the Packers and would love to knock them out of the playoffs, Green Bay has much more incentive in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 at New York Giants

God do I hate betting this many road intra-divisional favorites, but the Eagles NEED this.  Not so much for the playoffs or the divisional title (although a win with help could give them the latter), but they just need to play a good ball game.

Arizona Cardinals + 3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has just been playing too many close games.  Arizona has the 6th best rushing team in the NFL and Seattle is 30th against the rush.  James Conner and Michael Carter for the cover.

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Los Angeles Rams

Nobody is playing, so who cares.  I gotta hope the 49ers depth is better than the Rams depth.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Denver Broncos

This Raiders team has been playing inspired football under Antonio Pierce.  If they just had a talented quarterback.  I wonder if they would trade this year's, 2025's and 2026's firsts, this year's second, and next year's third for the number one overall pick?  Or, instead of 2026's first, throw in a player?

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We will have a Blaine Gabbert sighting!!!  Although to be honest, Kansas City hasn't been amazing even with Patrick Mahomes.  I'll take Easton Stick sounds like I am in a craft drink lounge.

Dallas Cowboys -13 at Washington Commanders

Too many points, on the road, in an intradivsional game - except, the Cowboys need this to win the division, and the Commanders aren't playing for anything, except for a trade with the Bears if they like Caleb Williams.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Miami Dolphins

I might as well keep the road favorites train rolling.  The Bills are the third-betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, and if they lose this game they miss the playoffs.  The Dolphins are without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, not to mention their rush edges Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb.

Big Bet:

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.

Had to select a home team, and at least this will give me a reason to watch this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  134-108-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $920

Picks of the Week

   

The season is getting tougher and tougher now as the casino actuaries have a much better feel on all of the teams so the lines are ridiculously tough.  Let's see if we can't motor through a winning week before the always tough Thanksgiving week.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I hated this line and I hated this pick.  Problem is, I would have hated it the other way also.  I will take that win.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Baltimore Ravens

Remember just recently when people were touting Tennessee as the best team in the NFL.  That was before losing 3 of 4, and that 1 win being against the Chicago Bears.  But, they are still tough and their losses have generally been close (except for punter problems against Indianapolis.)  I am not saying they win this game, but it should be close.  A tough, tough game for both teams.

Detroit Lions -1 at Carolina Panthers

This doesn't really count as picking a road favorite, but with Teddy Two Gloves possible still not even playing, I have to take Detroit.  Carolina has played some tough, close games without Christian McCaffrey, but without him and Bridgewater?  Probably too much.  And, I stand by this pick even if Bridgewater plays, because he is hurt more than Matthew Stafford.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has the 26th ranked rush defense, and Nick Chubb ran for 126 yards on only 19 carries in his return from injury last week.  Kareem Hunt added 104 yards on 19 carries.  This game could get ugly.

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh could honestly win this by 30.  But, they did play Green Bay close, and they are at home, so I will almost always take double digits.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Football-wise, the Falcons have the second-most explosive passing offense (with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup), and the Saints are in the middle of pass defense rankings (15th).  In reality, Taysom Hill brings a lot to the table, but not as an every down quarterback.  I think the Saints might turn to Jameis Winston at some point in this game, and if so, they are going to regret not giving him the first team snaps this week.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is having a remarkable rookie campaign, but the Football Team has the number 1 ranked passing defense in the entire NFL, holding opponents to an average of 194 yards.  That and the incredible story that is Alex Smith (coming soon on an ESPN 30 for 30 AND Disney+ movie near you).  (Well, not technically yet, but it is bound to happen, right?)

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This, in an ordinary year, would be an easy pick for me - and I would take Denver.   Denver is at home in the mile high air, has an adequate defense, and has shocked the likes of New England at home this season.  But, Denver doesn't yet know if Drew Lock or Brett Rypien is quarterbacking today, and Miami has been on a run since Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has started (even though his play has been OK to good, not great), and this team is playing inspired football.  Give me the Dolphins.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Jets

Although 0-9, the Jets have played some close, tough games ... AT HOME.  Unfortunately, this game is on the road, where the Jets have lost by 10, 29, 24 and 26.  That and the Chargers have risen to 7th in the NFL in passing offense, (3rd since Justin Herbert took over), and the Jets are 29th in pass defense.  The fact that this is a 13 point spread astounds me.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has played remarkable at times, and no more impressive than last week's 34-17 defeat of Tennessee on the road.  But, Ryan Tannehill, for all he has accomplished in Nashville, is not Aaron Rodgers.  And, more importantly JK Scott is much better at punting than the revolving door at the Titans team facility.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets Allen Lazard back as well.  And, I get points!!!  I'll take them.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Every week has that one game that surprises everybody, right?  So I think this one is it, and I will pick against my instincts.  Yes the Minnesota Vikings and their running game with Dalvin Cook has been amazing.  But, the Chicago Bears showed a blue print that can keep Cook in check.  However, the Cowboys' defense is certainly NOT the Bears' defense.  Deciding factors?  Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday night, and the Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers incredibly tough.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, 7 points is a big number for a road favorite in an intradivisional game, especially when the home underdog already defeated the road favorite earlier this year.  But, that should be an incentive for the road favorite, especially when the Raiders' defense - well, team really - is ravaged by Covid.  At the beginning of the week 8 of 11 defensive starters were on the Covid list.  Who knows how many will be ready to play?

Los Angeles Rams +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly am not sure which way to pick this game, but the Rams' performace last week against Seattle was great.  I will take the points here, since in my mind this shoul dbe a 2 1/2 to 3 points spread.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

OK - so I hate picking road teams as my big bet, but my first choice was originally the Browns over Philadelphia.  But, they burnt me last week as my Big Bet, so I am not picking them twice in a row.  My other choices were Miami over Denver and Green Bay over Indianapolis, and they were both road teams as well, and Indianapolis has a phenomenal defense.  So, Belichick it is.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  78-65-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1205

A Historical Look At The New York Giants

One of my favorite things to do from time to time is to take a look back at some of the rosters of past teams, once we have a chance to reflect on the careers of some of the players on those teams. For a prime example of this, look back at the rosters of the early 2000s Miami Hurricane teams. Just absolutely loaded.

However, in honor of the the Super Bowl, this entry is going to look back at the 1990 New York Giants football team. This is the team that went on to win Super Bowl XXV in Tampa, Florida, which admittedly is my favorite Super Bowl of all time. Some of the many reasons for this are: (1) I attended; (2) the Whitney Houston national anthem sung at the height of the first Gulf War; (3) the NFL announced its Silver Anniversay All-Super Bowl Team; (4) Thurman Thomas at the absolutely height of his career, and the only reason he did not win MVP was because of; (5) local legend Ottis Andersen winning MVP; (6) Giants with a 2:1 time of possession advantage; (7) Scott Norwood's miss; and (8) (did I mention that) I was at the game.

Well, anyway, this entry isn't a typical look back at the roster of a championship team. I want to highlight a particular portion of the team roster - the coaching staff. As most people know, Bill Parcells was the head coach, and as many of us have heard recently Bill Belichick (Defensive Coordinator) and Tom Coughlin (Wide Receivers) were both on that staff. That in and of itself is a ton of coaching talent. But that wasn't it. The remaing coaches were:

Ron Erhardt - Offensive Coordinator
Ray Handley - Running Backs
Mike Pope - Tight Ends
Fred Hoaglin - Offensive Line
Romeo Crennel - Defensive Line
Al Groh - Linebackers
Mike Sweatman - Special Teams Coordinator
Charlie Weis - Assistant Special Teams

The list of coaches that either had head coaching experience at the NFL or major college level, or became head coaches at that same level are: Parcells, Erhardt, Handley, Belichick, Crennel, Groh and Weis. Just absolutely amazing.

Seeing how that coaching staff turned out, it is amazing that Giants only won by a missed 47 yard field goal instead of absolutely routing the Buffalo Bills that year.

It remains to be seen if either of these two staffs in tomorrow's Super Bowl will ultimately measure up to the success of that 1990 New York Giants coaching staff. Only time will tell.