Another approximately .500 week, but capped off by a big bet loss, mostly because of a fluke ending quarter for the Bears, but that is a game that should have ended differently - the crazy lament of the gambler. In Boston today, so all I hear is Patriots, Patriots, Patriots. I super hope that all of this doesn't subliminally affect any AFC East picks. Lets see ...
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks...
Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Home team on a short week. Glad the Packers lost, hate it for my picks.
Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that). But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league. Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th). This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.
Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I really don't like this pick, but I am trying not to overthink it. Philadelphia is on a short week, having played a tough game on Monday night. Indianapolis has the 4th ranked defense, so they could keep this close, even if Philadelphia wins.
New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Pacific time zone team only traveling to the central time zone, not eastern, but they bring with them the worst total offense in the NFL and the worst rushing offense in the NFL. Defense is still stout (4th in rushing, 4th overall), but this is much more than just a Super Bowl hangover.
Houston Texans +3 v. Washington Commanders
I also don't like this pick, but the Commanders are coming off a hugely emotional win on Monday night, and the combination of a letdown and a short week means Washington wins 21-20.
New York Jets +3 1/2 at New England Patriots
Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah, can't be outcoached in a big game, blah, blah, blah, no way the Jets can take over 1st place in the AFC East, blah, blah, blah. New England has the 27th ranked offense, and the Jets have the 6th best total defense (9th in passing, 11th in rushing). Jets with points, yes please!
Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants
Are the Giants the better team? Yes. Are the Giants playing at home? Also yes. But, Detroit has the 7th best total offense, which is balanced between passing (8th) and rushing (10th). Detroit also has the worst defens in the NFL, both total and scoring, but the Giants are only 22nd in scoring. This means a big game for Saquon Barkley that results in a 30-28 victory.
Carolina Panthers +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Two touchdowns is a lot of points. This will probably happen then, since I have been generally bullish on the double digit underdogs to little avail. I am hoping that Baltimore welcoming back Gus Edwards keeps them just rusty enough to not cover, and Baker Mayfield is just feisty/angry enough to keep this close-ish.
Cleveland Browns +8 at Buffalo Bills
I seem to be a big fan of the underdogs today, and that train continues rolling as the Bills have two consecutive losses, and two relatively close games prior. I'll take Nick Chubb and the points.
Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr's emotion during last week's press conference could galvanize the team, but it is more likely that the Raiders find it difficult to score against the best scoring defense, and number 2 total defense in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati appears to have figured out their offense sans J'Marr Chase. They will need Burrow to keep up his 102.6 passer rating in order to avenge their early-season loss to the Steelers.
Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
This game is in the 4 p.m. time slot, which means that Kirk Cousins will probably underperform. Seriously, the Noon Nightmare (the 1:00 eastern time slot starts at noon in Minneapolis) is a much better quarterback during the early games. Yes, his failings ordinarily occur during prime time games, but that must mean he plays progressively worse throughout the day.
Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
A healthy Keenan Allen makes this Chargers offense immensely better, however, we don't necessarily know if Keenan Allen is going to be fully healthy yet.
San Francisco 49ers -8 at Arizona Cardinals
Colt McCoy.
Byes: Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Big Bet:
Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that). But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league. Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th). This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.
I am going to the well for a second straight week, as I think the Bears getting points are much more dangerous than when the gave points to Detroit. My other thoughts were the Jets, but I didn't want to bet against Belichick; Denver, except they have been so erratic offensively, and the Bye against the Jaguars, but nobody would take that bet.
Last Week's Record: 7-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 72-72-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-4-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($850)
