Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs!!!

 

A fantastic start to the playoffs, going 9-3 and winning both big bets!!!  My only losses?  Detroit and Rams failed to cover, Detroit didn't cover the 3, and Cleveland lost as a favorite.  I will take that percentage from here on out!!!  Divisional round time!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -9 v. Houston Texans

This Texans story is great for the league, and C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell (once he returns) are going to be a burden for the AFC for the forseeable future.  Can you imagine if they got a stud running back?  But, Baltimore is here now, with the number 1 scoring defense only allowing 16.5 points per game, and the 6th best pass defense to counteract C.J. Stroud's passing attack.  A week off and rested, and Lamar Jackson is going to go crazy.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

Just check out what this Ravens team has done playing other potential Super Bowl contenders this year!  Domination after domination.  They could score 30+ by themselves, and Houston's offense will push this OVER the top.

Green Bay Packers +9 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Don't get me wrong, San Francisco wins this game, but this Packers team is much, much different with Aaron Jones at running back.  I said that last week when I picked Green Bay +7, and I will do it again with them getting 9 1/2 points.  Their 28th ranked rushing defense is going to have really play the game of their lives with Christian McCaffrey, et. al. running the ball.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers OVER 50 1/2

Lots of points here to be scored between the rejuvenated Packers offense averaging 22.5 per game - including games in which Aaron Jones was absent - and a 49ers offense averaging 28.9.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game is likely going to come down to whether or not Tampa Bay's defense can stop the aerial attack of Detroit.  Detroit has the wnd-best passing game in the NFL and Tampa's pass defense is 29th.  An interesting stat, though, is that Tampa's last-rated rush offense averages only 88.8 yards per game, whereas Detroit's 2nd ranked rush defense gives up only 88.8 yards per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions UNDER 49 1/2

As you will see, I will be picking the over in the next game, and I cannot select all Overs.  This game seems like it is the most likely to end 24-17.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Buffalo Bills

If Kadarious Toney doesn't play, this game could be a route by the Chiefs.  No, in all seriousness, Rashee Rice has emerged as the go-to receiver in Kansas City not named Travis Kelce, and even though Buffalo's offense is more balanced (8th in passing and 7th in rushing) thanks to Josh Allen's legs and the emergence of James Cook, the aforementioned Allen is likely to make one or two bad turnovers on which the experienced Chiefs will capitalize.  And, with all three linebackers for Buffalo hobbling, at best, Pacheco could ultimately overpower the Bills middling rush defense.  And I am getting points!!!

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills OVER 45 1/2

I smell shootout!!!

Big Bet I:

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Buffalo Bills

If Kadarious Toney doesn't play, this game could be a route by the Chiefs.  No, in all seriousness, Rashee Rice has emerged as the go-to receiver in Kansas City not named Travis Kelce, and even though Buffalo's offense is more balanced (8th in passing and 7th in rushing) thanks to Josh Allen's legs and the emergence of James Cook, the aforementioned Allen is likely to make one or two bad turnovers on which the experienced Chiefs will capitalize.  And, with all three linebackers for Buffalo hobbling, at best, Pacheco could ultimately overpower the Bills middling rush defense.  And I am getting points!!!

Yes, this is Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game.  DID YOU HEAR THAT?  HIS FIRST HOME PLAYOFF GAME!!!!  But, the experience of the team will take over and the Chiefs win.

Big Bet II:

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

Just check out what this Ravens team has done playing other potential Super Bowl contenders this year!  Domination after domination.  They could score 30+ by themselves, and Houston's offense will push this OVER the top.

The lowest Over/Under of the weekend, and I am pumping the over on this HARD!  Lots of points in this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0

Playoffs' Record:  9-3

Playoffs' Big Bet:  2-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-117-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $870

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $870

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,965

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk.  I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games.  Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A few things concern me with this pick.  First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4.  That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions.  Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass.  So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field.  But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks.  I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot.  And, Derrick Henry returns.  Plus, he is fresh.  Tennessee wins.

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2

With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th).  This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle.  This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)

Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)

Aaron Rodgers continues his F  You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers.  The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship.  A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans.  Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2

Their week 3 battle ended 30-28.  I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week.  Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough.  Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week.  And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)

Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2

I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now.  Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This should be a phenomenal game.  Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense).  But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.

Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)

Buffalo has a great chance to win this game.  I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low.  But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54

Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games.  This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.

Last Week's Record:  10-7-1

Playoff Record:  10-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoff Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-136-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  $334

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6) 

Picks of the Week

With the exception of the Minnesota - New Orleans game, last week was very good.  Even with my 3 losses from that one wildcard game (and one BAD one at -$400), I still finished up for the week.  Let's see how that playoff luck continues in the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers -320 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $320 to win $100)
San Francisco is the better team, they should win this game.  Of course, Minnesota got me last week as well, but Rudolph did push-off on the game winning touchdown and the playoff rules stink - both teams should at least get one possession.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44 1/2
These defenses are good, and San Francisco is getting a ton of players back from injury.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee is the type of hard-nosed, ball-control team that could give Baltimore trouble.  For that, there is no way that I will give up 10 points in this round of the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -450 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $450 to win $100)
This is the type of line to make me consider taking Tennessee, but I do feel that the Ravens will win this game, and I am confident in that so I have to take the money line on them to win.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 47
Two ball control teams will limit possessions, thus limiting scoring.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by 2 touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs -450 v. Houston Texans (Bet $450 to win $100)
See my analysis of the Baltimore money line and the Chiefs ATS bet.  Patrick Mahomes will put up POINTS.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 51
A 35-14 Chiefs victory still hits the under here.

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.

Green Bay Packers -200 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $200 to win $100)
Despite the fact that I think this is going to be a close game, at plus $170, there is not enough value for me to take a team with no running game fronted by Travis Homer.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers OVER 46 1/2
I can't pick all unders, and in this one, Green Bay wins 27-24.

Big Bet I

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.
This game is going to be close.

Big Bet II

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by at least 2 touchdowns.

This game is not.  35-14.

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.
Seattle would win this game is Chris Carson was healthy.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-134-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  16-8
Playoff Record:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $85
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($815)

NFL Picks of the Week

Sadly, the Bears Super Bowl hopes went "doink, doink", but at least I had Philly plus the points.  Average week, but hopefully this gets easier, at least the way the weather is in half the games should help, but you never know.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
So, Kansas City is incredibly high scoring - this we all know.  But, Indianapolis was 5th in scoring this year as well and 10th in scoring defense.  Plus, it is snowing right now in Kansas City, as I just saw a picture from my friend Alison who is currently tailgating at the game (she is from Kansas City).  This game is going to require a stop, and the Colts defense will make enough to keep this close - especially since Kansas City's defense doesn't stop anybody (31st in the league at 405.5 yards per game).

Indianapolis Colts +180 (Bet $100 to win $180) at Kansas City Chiefs
If I think this is going to be close, I have a lot of faith in Adam Vinatieri in kicking field goals in inclement weather, even important ones.  Plus, I like the +180 odds better than the -220 to select the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54
Three unders hit last week, much to my dismay, but bad weather doesn't always mean low scoring.  Sometimes it means defensive backs slipping on coverage, or linebackers losing their footing when trying to wrap up a big back.  It can also mean fumbles in your own territory.  I look for the over to come in this game.

Dallas Cowboys +7 at the Los Angeles Rams
I don't think I am on the Dallas Cowboys are for real and legitimate Super Bowl contenders bandwagon, but I am on the Rams have not looked great for about a month now bandwagon, and the way the Cowboys defense has been playing, the Rams should not run away with this, even if they win.

Dallas Cowboys +270 at Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $270)
Honestly, I don't know if the Cowboys are actually going to win this game, all I know is that Amari Cooper has changed this offense dramatically - for the better - and Ezekial Elliott has been a monster with the safeties not able to play in the box to cover Cooper over the top.  Plus, the Rams are at -330, and I do not like that risk at all.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48 1/2
Even with Dallas's defense playing extraordinarily well of late, would it shock you if this ended up at least 28-24?  It wouldn't for me.  I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I like the Chargers so much more than the Patriots this year, but the Chargers history in New England, and Phillip Rivers's history against Tom Brady, might just be too much to overcome in the bad weather in Foxboro.

New England Patriots -190 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Bill Belicheck with a bye week to prepare against a warm weather west coast team traveling east to play in the early time slot.  This should be -250.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I just don't see a shootout hear.  Maybe something like 24-17,

New Orleans Saints -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans was 13-3 this year for good reason, and this after starting the season with a loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  New Orleans was the third highest scoring team in the league and second in total defense, meaning Nick Foles is going to have to do this by himself.  Besides Drew Brees, who will be playing against Philly's 30th ranked pass defense, the Saints have the most dangerous running back in the game in Alvin Kamara - because of his versatility.  Here is where the title defense ends.

New Orleans Saints -380 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I thought about hedging my bet here as the Eagles are getting +320, but New Orleans likely beats Philly last year if not for that ridiculous Stefon Diggs last second catch-and-run in the playoffs to knock the Saints out.  This playoff run is a long-time coming for the Saints.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2
Did I mention Philadelphia's 30th ranked pass defense?

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +7 at Los Angeles Rams
I just feel the league, starting with the Bears loss, and continuing through the Philly loss the following week, might have found a way to slow down the Rams.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-126-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($985)

Divisional Playoffs/Picks of the Week

A really good opening week to the playoffs.  Just a couple of plays from an extraordinary week.  Hopefully that continues.  Once again, for the playoffs and since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Eagles are the home team and yes they are the number 1 seed.  Yes, the Falcons are the number 6 seed.  The Falcons are the reigning NFC champions, they did win 10 games this year and they are starting their starting quarterback.  This game features the seventh ranked defense (Eagles) and 8th ranked defense (Falcons) in the NFL  I will take Matt Ryan and the experience of the Falcons over the versatility of the Eagles offense.  24-21.

Atlanta Falcons -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
Since I feel Atlanta will cover the spread, I have to take them with the money line, especially since Philly is only +$130, so not much extra incentive to take the Eagles here.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 40
Two really good defenses, but 40 really isn't a lot of points.  Like I said before, 24-12, Atlanta.

Tennessee Titans +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
Let's get this straight from the beginning:  there is no way Tennessee wins this matchup.  I just think that with the tough running of Derrick Henry, and Mariota making a few plays, the Patriots might only win by 10.

New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
This is really a suckers bet.  Not because I don't think New England will win, but because there is little or no value in making this bet, but since I am picking each games money line, I am definitely taking the Patriots.  No doubt they win.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I am not sure Tennessee scores enough to get to the 48.  New England 28-18, maybe?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville destroyed Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year.  I do not expect that to happen again, but I also expect that the Jaguars defense can keep this game closer than the line.

Pittsburgh Steelers -$320 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $320 to win $100)
Not a value bet, but I feel good about Pittsburgh's chances to win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41
Blake Bortles looks like he is playing like Blake Bortles.  This could end up being a 20-14 game.

New Orleans Saints +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has had a great season, finishing 11th in total offense and 1st in total defense, but New Orleans is second in total offense, and they will put enough points on the board to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints +$200 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $200)
Yes, I think that New Orleans will win outright over the Vikings, so I will take the money line bet.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings OVER 46
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 7-5
Playoff Record - 7-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  131-129-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $200
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $200
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1010)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

Just under .500 last week, but I knew that was going to happen.  I took the Dolphins because of the money line even though I new the Steelers were going to win.  The money line bet was just too tempting.  I don't think I completely mis-read Seattle as they did not look that great, but Detroit was just worse.  Anyway, 5-7 should be easy to bounce back from.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Here I go gain, underestimating the Seahawks, but we have a basis for this.  Earlier in the season, Seattle beat Atlanta by 2 at home coming off a bye in a week in which Atlanta had to travel to Denver and Seattle back-to-back.  And Seattle had Earl Thomas then.  Ryan still threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns.  This week, Atlanta has the bye and is at home.  I'll take Atlanta to win by 10.

Atlanta Falcons -240 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $240 to win $100)
If I think that Atlanta is going to win by 10, I better take the money line, and -240 is not that outrageous of a risk.  Atlanta has a defense this year - or at least a pass rush.  They should advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (52 1/2) OVER
Super enticing number to go either way, but earlier this year the teams scored exactly 50.  Earl Thomas' loss means more points for Atlanta, so I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -15 1/2 v. Houston Texans
New England won earlier this year 27-0 without Tom Brady.  Of the 5 largest postseason spreads, the favorite covered in 4 of them, with the exception being Super Bowl III.

New England Patriots -1400 v. Houston Texans (Bet $1400 to win $100)
A ridiculous money line, which is at -2000 at the Wynn, but the Texans are not a real playoff team.  Even a +1000 for Houston is not enough to get me to pick them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (44 1/2) UNDER
I am not sure that Houston will score more than 7 in this game.

Green Bay Packers +4 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay has won 6 in a row since week 11 loss to the Washington Racists, and no quarterback is playing as well as Aaron Rodgers.  Even if the Cowboys win, it will be close.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers +200 at Dallas Cowboys (Bet $100 to win $200)
Dallas's rookies are still rookies, and Aaron Rodgers is not.  The Packers actually have a semblance of a running game to at least pretend they are balanced, and Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers all year.  I will take the Packers to win this outright.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (51 1/2) OVER
31-27 gets me to this over, and I think that could happen very easily.

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has had a nice season, bolstered by Denver's Super Bowl hangover and a Derek Carr injury, though.  Do we really trust the Chiefs in a big spot?

Pittsburgh Steelers +105 at Kansas Cit (Bet $100 to win $105)
A really, really close game.  In fact at a couple of casinos the money line is minus for both teams.  If I am taking Pittsburgh getting only 1 1/2, I think they will win outright.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (45) UNDER
Lots of ball possession offense and the scoring drives will be long (unless Tyreek Hill breaks a return).  That means few points.  I'll take the under.


Last Week's Record:  5-7
Year-to-Date Record:  137-128-5
Playoff Record:  5-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($220)
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): ($220)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,780)

NFL Playoffs - Divisional Roundtable

Pepster: Well, we all survived the horrific wild card round of the playoffs, and it looks like at least some of these games could be competitive, hard-fought playoff games.

Sinickal:  Except the one in New England.

Pepster:  You are truly living up to your name.  Now, what you say is true, but it is truly cynical.

Sinickal: No doubt.

Hopps:  Yup.  And since we are already on the topic, let's just discuss this game first.  It's Foxboro, and they are the Pats.

Sinickal:  New England ran all over Houston in Week 3 of the season, with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.  JACOBY BRISSETT.

Pepster:  Now don't knock my boy Brissett.  He is a hometown boy (at least for me).  Now that being said, Houston was obliterated by a third-string quarterback.  New England.

Sinickal:  I am not even wasting my breath picking.

Hopps:  Yup.

Pepster:  That makes it unanimous.  Let's go to today's first game, Seattle at Atlanta.

Hopps:  Atlanta should have beaten Seattle in Seattle.

Pepster: Very true.  Seattle won that game 26-24, at home and coming off a bye, whereas Atlanta had traveled to Denver the week before, and then came back to Seattle.  Everything favored Seattle in that game.  And now Atlanta gets to host.

Sinickal:  That should be all the difference.  We know how much of a home field advantage Atlanta has.

Hopps:  *Does a spit-take*

Pepster:  True cynical form Sinickal.

Sinickal:  Maybe, but it's true.  Look, I lived there for a while, blocks from the stadium.  Atlanta might have the worst fan support in all of sports - except Miami.

Pepster:  Hey.  That's my home ... OK.  You're right.

Sinickal:  Until Atlanta proves it to me that they can handle this type of pressure, I cannot pick them.  Seattle, although more flawed that in the past few years, has done it when it counts.  And Russell Wilson is as cool under pressure as they come.  I'll take Seattle on the road.

Hopps:  Atlanta.

Pepster:  Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and Julio Jones had 7 receptions for 139 yards in the earlier game, and now Earl Thomas is out.  I think Vic Beasley has meant a world of improvement for this defense, and Atlanta wins.  Any last thoughts on this game?

Sinickal:  Just a shout to all my old neighborhood peeps that will be watching the game at the Elliott Street Pub!

Pepster:  Seems like as good a time to transition to tomorrow's games, where Pittsburgh at Kansas City has been moved to the evening because of an ice storm.  Let's start there.

Hopps:  Mother nature wins again.

Sinickal:  But that weather is football weather!!!  That should be a great game to close out the divisional round.  Kansas City plays tough, Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh (led by my man crush Mike Tomlin).  Looking forward to this one.

Pepster:  It should be a tough, physical game.  And that is just from assistant coach Joey Porter, who will be on the sidelines.

Hopps:  Too much Killer B's.

Pepster:  You mean the Dolphins defense from the early 1980's?

Hopps:  No, you dope.  Ben, Bell and Brown.

Pepster:  Ah, I thought you mean the 1982 Dolphins defense, with starters Bob Baumhower, Bill Barnett, Lyle Blackwood, Glenn Blackwood, Kim Bokamper, Charles Bowser, Doug Betters and Bob Brudzinski.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  We established that last week.

Sinickal:  You established that decades ago.

Hopps:  *Does spit-take*

Pepster:  So, Hopps has Pittsburgh.  Sinickal, I assume you do as well.

Sinickal:  Yes.  My man Tomlin.

Pepster:  If the weather affects the passing game, that hurts Pittsburgh more, as they rely much more on Ben and Brown that Kansas City does on anyone in their passing game.  But, Pittsburgh's running game is stellar, and reliable.  Unlike Kansas City's, where most people can't even name their running backs.  I'll go Pittsburgh.

Hopps;  Get to the Cowboys.  Get to the Cowboys.

Pepster:  Ok, Hopps, Green Bay at Dallas.

Hopps:  DALLAS!

Sinickal:  That figures.  Hopps picks his favorite team.

Hopps:  At least I CAN pick my favorite team.  Where are your Bears.

Pepster: Just waiting for DeShaun Watson to suit up!

Hopps:  Yeah, well we have Dak Prescott, and Zeke.  The rookies will have the day.

Sinickal:  You know what the rookies won't do?  Stop Aaron Rodgers.  That dude is on fire.

Pepster:  Glad you said it, because I can't say his name.  But, even with Jordy Nelson out, Davante Adams has really been the best receiver this year for the Packers anyway.  And, as touchdowns are falling from the sky, we get to yell, "Geronimo".

Sinickal:  Ezekial Elliott is a monster, and if Dallas can find some way to carve up the already porous Packer secondary, this game could become a super high scoring shootout.  That would favor Rodgers, no?

Hopps:  Cowboys!

Sinickal:  That doesn't answer my question.

Hopps:  I don't care - Cowboys!

Sinickal and Pepster:  Just for  your insolence, Packers.

Pepster:  There you have it.  Unanimous for New England and Pittsburgh.  2 for Atlanta (Pepster and Hopps) and 2 for Green Bay (Pepster and Sinickal).  Last week's records:

Sinickal:  4-0
Pepster:  3-1
Hopps:  3-1

Picks of the Week

Picked 3 of the 4 winners last week, but unfortunately, missed most of the spreads.  So I am changing my rules a bit.  I will be counting the straight up  money line bets as well as the spread for the playoffs.  This isn't just because of last week, but because there are only four games this week, and less going forward.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at New England
I know that we are never supposed to doubt Belichick and Brady, but this New England team is really beat up, plus, Kansas City is solid in every aspect of the game.   Sure the Maclin injury huts, but they rely less on 1 single person than any team in the league.

Arizona v. Green Bay
It is chic to say that Green Bay's offense is back after last week, but they didn't play Arizona last week.

Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers
They played a fairly even game earlier in the year, and Seattle's offensive line, and team, are playing much better now.

Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think any starters remain on Pittsburgh's offense.

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at New England Patriots
If I expect Kansas City to win outright, then they have to cover, right?

Green Bay Packers + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay is playing better than earlier in the year, especially Aaron Rodgers.  I look for Mike McCarthy to try to run the ball more and keep Arizona's offense off the field.  It won't be enough to win.  Carson Palmer should be getting a lot of consideration for MVP (along with Cam Newton).

Seattle Seahawks + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
As in the Kansas City game, I think the underdog is going to win outright.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
For this game to stay close, Pittsburgh's defense is going to have to outscore Denver's offense.  Won't happen.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Nobody is playing for Pittsburgh.

Last Week's Winners:  3-1
Playoff Winners to Date:  3-1
Last Week's Record:  4-7
Playoff Record:  4-7

Year-to-Date Record: 128-116-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-5
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($535)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $795

Playoff Picks

Boy was I way off the reservation last week. 11-0 is way gone, both straight-up and against the spread. I need a big comeback week to try to get back to respectability, after a darn good season of picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints

The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots

I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.

Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens

Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.

New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.


Playoff Record To Date

Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3

Divisional Roundtable

Welcome to the Divisional Week of the NFL Playoffs Roundtable. Here with me today is Hopps and Sinickal.

Let's start with tomorrow, as both of our favorite teams play then. In reverse order, what do we think about the Jets-Pats matchup.

Sinickal: That's easy. The Patriots. They are just better.

Hopps: Pats at home no doubt. The Jets always put their foot in their mouth (or someone else s) and the Pats practice and execute. The Pats will be up 20 at the half and the Jets will quit. I think it's also supposed to snow so look for the Pats to post 40+. Brady's line: (5TDs/ 400+/ 100+ rating). Pats -8 (Big Bet)

Pepster: Gee, that's not much of a homer pick. I will make it a clean sweep and take the Patriots. They are just better, but I think people are also overvaluing the Jets. Let's take Mark Sanchez for example. He finished the season with a lower QB rating than Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Chad Henne. And Dolphins fans want Henne gone. Pats in a rout. But, can we please put all this childish wannabe trash talk away? Welker, your foot/feet presser was boring and dumb. Try to be a little clever, OK? Also, Hopps, yours wasn't much better. Bears v. Seahawks?

Hopps: Remember, I picked the Seahawks last week!

Pepster: Yes, but you said you didn't know why, you just wanted to do it. You thought Pete Carroll would dumb his way into a playoff victory.

Hopps: But I was right!!! Seahawks +10. This will be the most painful dagger in Si's heart. He once said to me "Lovie should be coach of the year" - enter the Pete Carroll face (again). Even the Hawks won't know how they won this game...but they will.

Sinickal: I am going with the Seahawks. Cutler is going to kill us.

Pepster: I sure hope not Sinickal, but I cannot say that is not a viable option. I am going to go with our Bears, and then remind you of your Sinicism next week. Cutler sure does scare me though. What about the other NFC game - the Packers and Falcons? I am going to say the Packers. Sure they cannot run, but they have a helluva QB. In yet another stat I will quote again below, the Packers only lost by 3to the Falcons earlier in the season, and the Packers are playing phenomenally better.

Sinickal: If Bears ain't going, Pack ain't going.

Hopps: Now that is some interesting analysis. Me, I also say Atlanta, but for a specific reason. Matty Ice at home during his career is 19-2. The Pack is good, but the Falcons are better. Great balance, great in all 3 phases, and one hell of a RB. They win this on turnover margin.

Pepster: Any particular reason why you only mentioned the BC guy?

Hopps: I mentioned the QB. He just happens to be from BC. What about the first game, Steelers/Ravens?

Sinickal: No matter what everybody says about how close these two teams are, Pittsburgh is the much better team statistically and at QB. Expect a Flacco interception late in the game to seal it.

Hopps: I am taking Pittsburgh. The only difference between Brady and Big Ben is 1 SB win. He plays as good in big games as Brady. Steelers D brings the pain and Flacco can't close.

Pepster: One SB win, and 2 rape accusations. I am going to take the Ravens. Mostly because I want to see them play the Patiots again, but partly because I am sick of hearing that damn "Here we go" song by Steelers fans. Ed Reed could be the big difference, and Matt Birk - from Harvard - is questionable. If they both play, the Ravens are a much, much better team than without them. I'll take a flier on the Ravens.

Everyone, check back with us next week for Championship weekend.

My picks of the week:

Baltimore Ravents +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
My mind tells me that the Steelers are going to win, especially with Roethlisberger, but (a) I picked the Ravens at the beginning of the season; and (b) the played the Patriots incredibly close earlier in the season. I want to see that matchup. Not usually big on the wishful thinking bets, but I will this time.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay lost by 3 earlier this year and seem to be playing much, much better.

Chicago Bears -10 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Bears are the one team that is not going to overlook the Seahawks, having already lost to them at home earlier this year. At that time the Bears were a revolving door on the offensive line and played without Lance Briggs. I look for a big Bears play early and Seattle to fold.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots -8 1/2 v. New York Jets
They are just better than the Jets. Plus, I'll say it again, Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Chad Henne all had better QB ratings that Mark Sanchez did.

Previous Week's Record: 2-2
Playoff Record: 2-2
Year to Date: 106-75-5
Previous Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 4-10
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): $130
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $250

Playoff Picks of the Week

Here is this week's "Playoffs Picks of the Week". So, a 50-50 (i.e. "losing") start last week, but who would have thought that the number 1 defense in the NFL would have forgotten to show up for the game against the Cardinals.

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

Arizona Cardinals +7 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints struggled against inferior teams even before they clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That should make for a close game. Hopefully a shoot-out like last week for the Cardinals (see below).

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Manning has defeated the Ravens something like 7 times in a row. Besides, given the rest of my picks, I am going to have to choose 1 home favorite. Indianapolis is it.

Dallas Cowboys +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
I just simply think that the Cowboys defense is entirely too good right now. I also think, that as great as the Vikings defensive line is, that if Romo gets time, he can carve up the secondary with Austin, Witten and possibly even Roy Williams.

New York Jets +7 at San Diego Chargers
I actually think San Diego is going to win, but 3 road teams won last year, and the home teams in the divisional round have not had a winning record since 2004. (Thanks to the fellas on Todd's e-mail chat list for these stats). Coupled with the Jets ball control running game, Darrelle Revis locking up Vincent Jackson, and the rest of the Jets defense being dominating, I expect them to keep it within a touchdown, so I will take the points.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints - OVER 57
Somehow this seems too easy, but I will take it.

Previous Week's Record: 2-2 (0-1 Big Bet)
Playoffs To Date: 2-2 (0-1 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 96-72-3 (5-5-1)
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): ($185)
Playoffs Winnings (Losses): ($185)
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1590

NFL Divisional Playoffs Predictions

We here at We Make It Rain love football and gambling, so here are our predictions for this weekend's NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Betting lines from canbet.com.

Seattle (+8) v. Green Bay

Out of all the remaining teams, Seattle probably has the most suspect running game. It is interesting that they play the Packers, who at the beginning of the season looked as if they would have one of the most suspect running games in the entire league. Enter Ryan Grant, who has had the second most rushing yards in the NFL since week 8. In addition, the Packers receivers have really emerged as a force this year, with Jennings, Driver and Donald Lee becoming not only good targets for Favre, but also viable playmakers in their own right.

Seattle has the most underrated quarterback of the past 5 years, Matt Hasselback, who has finally found some receivers that don't automatically drop the ball out of habit. Bobby Engram had 94 catches for 1,147 yards. Shaun Alexander, however - DONE!

On the defensive side of the football, Patrick Kerney has emerged as a pass rushing force with 14.5 sacks this year, second in the NFL. However, the Packers are likely to call a lot of timing routes, and look for Farve to throw the ball well before the Seahawks pass rush has time to make their presence felt. Plus, Seattle's secondary is suspect. Meanwhile, the Packers play solid team defense, with linebacker Nick Barnett leading the way with 131 tackles, good for 5th in the NFL.

If I thought that Shaun Alexander had anything left, I would love to pick the Seahawks in this one, but I can't. The do play it close enough to cover.

The Seahawks, plus the 8.

Jacksonville (+13.5) v. New England

Everyone would love to see an upset here, and make New England finish with the worst possible record mathematicallly for a team of their talent, 16-1. If you don't understand that sentence, don't worry, ask me to explain it to you.

It is not going to happen. Jacksonville can run the ball on anybody, and with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, they have the best backfield tandem in the NFL. Both are capable taking any run to the house for 6. As good as Garrard has been this year, he just doesn't have the total passing package to keep New England's defense honest. The receivers are not big threats, and with Asante Samuel covering one side of the field, the Pats linebackers can load up against the run. I believe Jacksonville may get yards rushing, but I look for New England to limit the big play.

New England is the most powerful offense ever. Brady, Moss and the team all set records for touchdowns. Wes Welker lead the NFL in receptions with 112 (tied with T. J. Houshmandzadeh). And although Belicheck abandoned the run for most of the year, Maroney still averaged 4.5 yards per carry. Jacksonville's defense is one of the most physically toughest in the league. However, New England has proven that it can score against anyone, including the Jaguars.

Don't look for an upset here. Take the Patriots, and give the 13.5.

San Diego (+9.5) v. Indianapolis

This game is a rematch from the game earlier this year when Peyton Manning absolutely IMPLODED! 6 interceptions. Probably would have thrown more had he not run out of time. The Colts offense has not seemed as explosive as in the past, likely due to all of the injuries to the wide receivers. The immortal Craphonzo Thorpe even saw significant playing time. I do not expect Manning to have the same type of game. I look for the Cotls to score almost at will against the Chargers D. Although Merriman, Phillips, Castillo and Cromartie are among the best in the game, the Chargers do not have enough defensive firepower to compete with the Colts.

The Colt defense is once again solid, led by NFL Defensive Player of the year Bob Sanders. Sanders is the type of safety that simply looks forward to making hits in the running game, in addition to the standard role of pass defense. Sanders leads a defense that will be matched up against an offense coached by Norv Turner. NORV TURNER! I don't care how many LaDanian Tomlinsons you have, it is hard to overcome that albatross. Plus, Antonio Gates is hurt.

Take the Colts and give the points.

New York Giants (+7.5) v. Dallas Cowboys

This game is looking like the prime game for the favored team to lose. The home team has never won all 4 divisional round games since the NFL switched to the wildcard format. This might be the game for the underdog.

First, the Cowboys have yet to figure out that they need to use Marion Barber as the every down back. He simply brings more to the table than Julius Jones. I do believe the Cowboys could use Jones so that Barber does not wear down, however, this is the playoffs. You have to play your best players. Second, Tony Romo has not been the same since his thumb injury. I think the injury has had more of an effect on him than anyone in the Cowboys would admit. Owens is back from his injured ankle, and even though he may be able to play, I believe his speed, quickness and agility might be limited enough to make his matchup with the Giants seconday more even. With the extra second or two that it might take the receivers to get open, the Giants pass rush should be able to get to Romo. Once that happens, look for Flozell Adams to commit multiple false starts. Jason Witten, though, has simply been the best tight end in football this year.

For the Giants, Eli Manning has played much better as of late, and Ahmad Bradshaw has provided the tough running that this Giants team needs to win. Assuming Plaxico Burress is able to continue his level of play with his ankle improving, the Giants offense might be able to score a lot on the Cowboys. Roy Williams is great in run coverage, but the safeties can be suspect in pass coverage. I look for Eli to throw the ball often to challenge the Cowboys secondary.

The Cowboys beat the Giants handily in the first two games, but this is not the same Cowboys football team. Likewise, this is not the same Giants team, which has been so consistently inconsistent this year. I don't think the Giants will win, but take the Giants and the 7.5 points.

Happy Football, and don't drink too much. Well, at least not much more than normal.