Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

Just under .500 last week, but I knew that was going to happen.  I took the Dolphins because of the money line even though I new the Steelers were going to win.  The money line bet was just too tempting.  I don't think I completely mis-read Seattle as they did not look that great, but Detroit was just worse.  Anyway, 5-7 should be easy to bounce back from.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Here I go gain, underestimating the Seahawks, but we have a basis for this.  Earlier in the season, Seattle beat Atlanta by 2 at home coming off a bye in a week in which Atlanta had to travel to Denver and Seattle back-to-back.  And Seattle had Earl Thomas then.  Ryan still threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns.  This week, Atlanta has the bye and is at home.  I'll take Atlanta to win by 10.

Atlanta Falcons -240 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $240 to win $100)
If I think that Atlanta is going to win by 10, I better take the money line, and -240 is not that outrageous of a risk.  Atlanta has a defense this year - or at least a pass rush.  They should advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (52 1/2) OVER
Super enticing number to go either way, but earlier this year the teams scored exactly 50.  Earl Thomas' loss means more points for Atlanta, so I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -15 1/2 v. Houston Texans
New England won earlier this year 27-0 without Tom Brady.  Of the 5 largest postseason spreads, the favorite covered in 4 of them, with the exception being Super Bowl III.

New England Patriots -1400 v. Houston Texans (Bet $1400 to win $100)
A ridiculous money line, which is at -2000 at the Wynn, but the Texans are not a real playoff team.  Even a +1000 for Houston is not enough to get me to pick them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (44 1/2) UNDER
I am not sure that Houston will score more than 7 in this game.

Green Bay Packers +4 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay has won 6 in a row since week 11 loss to the Washington Racists, and no quarterback is playing as well as Aaron Rodgers.  Even if the Cowboys win, it will be close.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers +200 at Dallas Cowboys (Bet $100 to win $200)
Dallas's rookies are still rookies, and Aaron Rodgers is not.  The Packers actually have a semblance of a running game to at least pretend they are balanced, and Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers all year.  I will take the Packers to win this outright.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (51 1/2) OVER
31-27 gets me to this over, and I think that could happen very easily.

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has had a nice season, bolstered by Denver's Super Bowl hangover and a Derek Carr injury, though.  Do we really trust the Chiefs in a big spot?

Pittsburgh Steelers +105 at Kansas Cit (Bet $100 to win $105)
A really, really close game.  In fact at a couple of casinos the money line is minus for both teams.  If I am taking Pittsburgh getting only 1 1/2, I think they will win outright.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (45) UNDER
Lots of ball possession offense and the scoring drives will be long (unless Tyreek Hill breaks a return).  That means few points.  I'll take the under.


Last Week's Record:  5-7
Year-to-Date Record:  137-128-5
Playoff Record:  5-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($220)
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): ($220)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,780)