Picks of the Week

 

Alright, stop me if you have heard this before... another .500 week.  And, another small winning week.  I would, of course, love a big winning week, but anytime you finish in the black.  Hope this continues.  But, it is Packers week, with the Kentucky Wildcats playing hoops in Michigan at the same time.  Gotta keep my head on a swivel today.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Buffalo Bills -4 at New England Patriots

A rare occasion when I select the road team on a Thursday.  But, by virtue of Buffalo having played on Thanksgiving, this was not a short week for them.  

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Not since the year before the DeShaun Watson draft, I mean the Mitchell Trubisky draft, have I been this excited for losses (GO WILL ANDERSON!!!), but a cover I will take. Not sure of the Aaron Rodgers situation (although I know he is playing, and the Bears defense is 27th against the rush, but the Packers defense is 31st against the rush and the Bears are the number 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to the dynamic Justin Fields.  Packers by 3.

Philadelphia  -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

By almost any analysis this should be a close game, except something tells me A.J. Brown might have something to prove.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 at Detroit Lions

I have been on the Detroit Lions betting train all year, but Jacksonville is seriously underrated as a bet also.  Both teams have about the same level of offensive numbers overall, and the Jaguars defense is mediocre whereas the Lions defense is putrid.

Cleveland Browns -8 at Houston Texans

Do I expect DeShaun Watson to be rusty in his first game back in forever?  Yes.  Do I think 8 points is too much to give in such a game?  Also yes.  Why I am picking them?  Houston has the worst offense in the league overall, and are 30th in scoring offense.  They are also 29th in the league in overall defense, but last in rushing defense.  Nick Chubb carries this day while Watson shakes off the rust.

New York Jets +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Jets are much, much better with Mike White behind center, and the Vikings are dead last in the NFL in passing defense.  Jets do just enough to cover against the Noon Nightmare Kirk Cousins at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

Denver Broncos +9 at Baltimore Ravens

Don't get me wrong, the Broncos won't win this game.  But, after racing out to a big lead, the Ravens collapse in the fourth and Denver back-door covers with a late field goal to cut it to 8.

Washington Commanders -2 at New York Giants

The Giants are going backwards, having lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 (the other a victory over the Texans), whereas the Commanders have won 3 in a row, and have looked like a playoff team since settling on Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback.  Plus, the Commanders at 8th in the NFL in rushing defense have the ability to slow down Saquon Barkley.  This is dangerous, though, in picking a road intra-divisional favorite, but I am going to do it.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This is THE game of the week to watch.  A dynamic offense in Miami (2nd in passing, 3rd overall, and 6th in scoring) versus THE defense in the NFL in San Francisco (1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in rushing, 11th in passing).  But, San Franciso's offense - which is overall 11th in the NFL - has a boost in that Christian McCaffrey is becoming more and more familiar with the scheme and the team.  San Fran here.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Another road favorite in an intradivisional game, except the Rams are starting John Wolford.

Las Vegas Raiders -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers are banged up and Raiders have won two in a row.  I believe they can make it three.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Two quarterbacks playing at really high levels - Mahomes 105.3 rating; Burrow 101.7 rating.  And, with J'Marr Chase being back, I will take points at home.

Indianapolis Colts +10 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

With Matt Ryan back, I think the Colts can play smart enough to cover this double-digit spread - or at least I hope.  I hate giving up 10 or more points, so I will take them.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In a game that I will likely not even watch, I am just taking the points.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

I hate giving up points in the Big Bet, so -1 isn't really giving up points.  But, I also hate picking road teams more for a Big Bet, so, I am picking a road team. I considered Washignton (-2 at Giants) and San Francisco (-4 1/2 v. Dolphins) here.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  87-85-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($630)