Picks of the Week - Conference Championships

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

This Kansas City offense has been outrageous in the playoffs, averaging 42 points per game, and you have to go back to week 13 to find them scoring less than 28.  Yes, they lost to the Bengals in Week 17, but the Chiefs had already clinched by that point, and the Bengals were fighting for their playoff lives.

Kansas City Chiefs -$350 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $350 to win $100).

The money line on Cincinnati (+$290) is almost enough to make me hedge my bet, but this is Kansas City's third year in a row in the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the game that the Rams have been waiting for all season.  They picked up Odell Beckham, Jr. and Von Miller for the Super Bowl, not just for the regular season.  Yes, San Francisco has won 6 in a row against the Rams, but not 7.

Los Angeles Rams -$170 v. San Francisco 49ers

I had the Rams against Kansas City in the Super Bowl since the very beginning of the season.  No reason to change now.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams UNDER 46

I can't pick ALL overs.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

This will be a scoring bonanza.

Last Week's Record:  7-5

Playoff Record:  17-12-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  160-141-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($335)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($1)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($341)  

Picks of the Week

With the exception of the Minnesota - New Orleans game, last week was very good.  Even with my 3 losses from that one wildcard game (and one BAD one at -$400), I still finished up for the week.  Let's see how that playoff luck continues in the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers -320 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $320 to win $100)
San Francisco is the better team, they should win this game.  Of course, Minnesota got me last week as well, but Rudolph did push-off on the game winning touchdown and the playoff rules stink - both teams should at least get one possession.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44 1/2
These defenses are good, and San Francisco is getting a ton of players back from injury.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee is the type of hard-nosed, ball-control team that could give Baltimore trouble.  For that, there is no way that I will give up 10 points in this round of the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -450 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $450 to win $100)
This is the type of line to make me consider taking Tennessee, but I do feel that the Ravens will win this game, and I am confident in that so I have to take the money line on them to win.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 47
Two ball control teams will limit possessions, thus limiting scoring.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by 2 touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs -450 v. Houston Texans (Bet $450 to win $100)
See my analysis of the Baltimore money line and the Chiefs ATS bet.  Patrick Mahomes will put up POINTS.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 51
A 35-14 Chiefs victory still hits the under here.

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.

Green Bay Packers -200 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $200 to win $100)
Despite the fact that I think this is going to be a close game, at plus $170, there is not enough value for me to take a team with no running game fronted by Travis Homer.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers OVER 46 1/2
I can't pick all unders, and in this one, Green Bay wins 27-24.

Big Bet I

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.
This game is going to be close.

Big Bet II

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by at least 2 touchdowns.

This game is not.  35-14.

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.
Seattle would win this game is Chris Carson was healthy.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-134-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  16-8
Playoff Record:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $85
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($815)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

What a week last week.  11-1, and the 1 is only because Houston scored a couple of touchdowns to hit the over.  I will take a lot of weeks like that one.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

No roundtable discussion this week, but Hopps has some interesting perspectives on today's games.

"The winners will be the Steelers and the Falcons.  Well, ... and really, really rich old white guys."

And, since Donald Trump is a supporter of the Patriots owner, coach and quarterback, and since Donald Trump has now succeeded Barack Obama as President of the United States the following quip is now actually true, "Orange IS the new black".

Onto the picks ...

Green Bay Packers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Obviously Atlanta's defense is markedly better than last year, but do you really think that they are going to be able to shut down Aaron Rodgers to the point where they win by more than a touchdown.  I think this is going to be a close, high scoring game.  Green Bay has won 8 in a row, and Atlanta has won 5 in a row, so both teams come into this game clicking.  Should be a great game for viewers, especially those that like lots of passing.

Atlanta Falcons -215 v. Green Bay Packers (Bet $215 to win $100)
Green Bay has won 8 in a row, but what are the chances they win 9?  Atlanta has quietly been the best team in the NFC all season, despite the hype given to Dallas because of the Cowboys' record.  They can pass, they can run, and they can rush the passer.  I look for them to make the Super Bowl, and leave Eugene Robinson at home.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (60) OVER
Who doesn't think this could end 41-37, or 37-31?  If both teams hit their averages in points scores, this over wins.  Plus, both quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots
This game should also be close, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown should all have big games.  Brady and Blount are no slouches themselves, and may even win this game, but I don't think they will cover.  Pittsburgh's defense is 12th in total yards, and 10th in points, which should keep them close.

New England Patriots -240 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $240 to win $100)
As close as Pittsburgh should keep this game, Tom Brady still finds a way to pull this one out.  The Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 9-2 against Pittsburgh, and they should continue that today.

Pittsburgh Steelers at at New England Patriots (49 1/2) OVER
Roethlisberger and Brady both throw for over 300 yards and have multiple touchdown passes each..

Last Week's Record:  11-1
Year-to-Date Record:  148-129-5
Playoff Record:  16-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1095
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $875
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($685)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

Just under .500 last week, but I knew that was going to happen.  I took the Dolphins because of the money line even though I new the Steelers were going to win.  The money line bet was just too tempting.  I don't think I completely mis-read Seattle as they did not look that great, but Detroit was just worse.  Anyway, 5-7 should be easy to bounce back from.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Here I go gain, underestimating the Seahawks, but we have a basis for this.  Earlier in the season, Seattle beat Atlanta by 2 at home coming off a bye in a week in which Atlanta had to travel to Denver and Seattle back-to-back.  And Seattle had Earl Thomas then.  Ryan still threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns.  This week, Atlanta has the bye and is at home.  I'll take Atlanta to win by 10.

Atlanta Falcons -240 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $240 to win $100)
If I think that Atlanta is going to win by 10, I better take the money line, and -240 is not that outrageous of a risk.  Atlanta has a defense this year - or at least a pass rush.  They should advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (52 1/2) OVER
Super enticing number to go either way, but earlier this year the teams scored exactly 50.  Earl Thomas' loss means more points for Atlanta, so I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -15 1/2 v. Houston Texans
New England won earlier this year 27-0 without Tom Brady.  Of the 5 largest postseason spreads, the favorite covered in 4 of them, with the exception being Super Bowl III.

New England Patriots -1400 v. Houston Texans (Bet $1400 to win $100)
A ridiculous money line, which is at -2000 at the Wynn, but the Texans are not a real playoff team.  Even a +1000 for Houston is not enough to get me to pick them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (44 1/2) UNDER
I am not sure that Houston will score more than 7 in this game.

Green Bay Packers +4 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay has won 6 in a row since week 11 loss to the Washington Racists, and no quarterback is playing as well as Aaron Rodgers.  Even if the Cowboys win, it will be close.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers +200 at Dallas Cowboys (Bet $100 to win $200)
Dallas's rookies are still rookies, and Aaron Rodgers is not.  The Packers actually have a semblance of a running game to at least pretend they are balanced, and Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers all year.  I will take the Packers to win this outright.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (51 1/2) OVER
31-27 gets me to this over, and I think that could happen very easily.

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has had a nice season, bolstered by Denver's Super Bowl hangover and a Derek Carr injury, though.  Do we really trust the Chiefs in a big spot?

Pittsburgh Steelers +105 at Kansas Cit (Bet $100 to win $105)
A really, really close game.  In fact at a couple of casinos the money line is minus for both teams.  If I am taking Pittsburgh getting only 1 1/2, I think they will win outright.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (45) UNDER
Lots of ball possession offense and the scoring drives will be long (unless Tyreek Hill breaks a return).  That means few points.  I'll take the under.


Last Week's Record:  5-7
Year-to-Date Record:  137-128-5
Playoff Record:  5-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($220)
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): ($220)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,780)

NFL Playoffs - Divisional Roundtable

Pepster: Well, we all survived the horrific wild card round of the playoffs, and it looks like at least some of these games could be competitive, hard-fought playoff games.

Sinickal:  Except the one in New England.

Pepster:  You are truly living up to your name.  Now, what you say is true, but it is truly cynical.

Sinickal: No doubt.

Hopps:  Yup.  And since we are already on the topic, let's just discuss this game first.  It's Foxboro, and they are the Pats.

Sinickal:  New England ran all over Houston in Week 3 of the season, with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.  JACOBY BRISSETT.

Pepster:  Now don't knock my boy Brissett.  He is a hometown boy (at least for me).  Now that being said, Houston was obliterated by a third-string quarterback.  New England.

Sinickal:  I am not even wasting my breath picking.

Hopps:  Yup.

Pepster:  That makes it unanimous.  Let's go to today's first game, Seattle at Atlanta.

Hopps:  Atlanta should have beaten Seattle in Seattle.

Pepster: Very true.  Seattle won that game 26-24, at home and coming off a bye, whereas Atlanta had traveled to Denver the week before, and then came back to Seattle.  Everything favored Seattle in that game.  And now Atlanta gets to host.

Sinickal:  That should be all the difference.  We know how much of a home field advantage Atlanta has.

Hopps:  *Does a spit-take*

Pepster:  True cynical form Sinickal.

Sinickal:  Maybe, but it's true.  Look, I lived there for a while, blocks from the stadium.  Atlanta might have the worst fan support in all of sports - except Miami.

Pepster:  Hey.  That's my home ... OK.  You're right.

Sinickal:  Until Atlanta proves it to me that they can handle this type of pressure, I cannot pick them.  Seattle, although more flawed that in the past few years, has done it when it counts.  And Russell Wilson is as cool under pressure as they come.  I'll take Seattle on the road.

Hopps:  Atlanta.

Pepster:  Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and Julio Jones had 7 receptions for 139 yards in the earlier game, and now Earl Thomas is out.  I think Vic Beasley has meant a world of improvement for this defense, and Atlanta wins.  Any last thoughts on this game?

Sinickal:  Just a shout to all my old neighborhood peeps that will be watching the game at the Elliott Street Pub!

Pepster:  Seems like as good a time to transition to tomorrow's games, where Pittsburgh at Kansas City has been moved to the evening because of an ice storm.  Let's start there.

Hopps:  Mother nature wins again.

Sinickal:  But that weather is football weather!!!  That should be a great game to close out the divisional round.  Kansas City plays tough, Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh (led by my man crush Mike Tomlin).  Looking forward to this one.

Pepster:  It should be a tough, physical game.  And that is just from assistant coach Joey Porter, who will be on the sidelines.

Hopps:  Too much Killer B's.

Pepster:  You mean the Dolphins defense from the early 1980's?

Hopps:  No, you dope.  Ben, Bell and Brown.

Pepster:  Ah, I thought you mean the 1982 Dolphins defense, with starters Bob Baumhower, Bill Barnett, Lyle Blackwood, Glenn Blackwood, Kim Bokamper, Charles Bowser, Doug Betters and Bob Brudzinski.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  We established that last week.

Sinickal:  You established that decades ago.

Hopps:  *Does spit-take*

Pepster:  So, Hopps has Pittsburgh.  Sinickal, I assume you do as well.

Sinickal:  Yes.  My man Tomlin.

Pepster:  If the weather affects the passing game, that hurts Pittsburgh more, as they rely much more on Ben and Brown that Kansas City does on anyone in their passing game.  But, Pittsburgh's running game is stellar, and reliable.  Unlike Kansas City's, where most people can't even name their running backs.  I'll go Pittsburgh.

Hopps;  Get to the Cowboys.  Get to the Cowboys.

Pepster:  Ok, Hopps, Green Bay at Dallas.

Hopps:  DALLAS!

Sinickal:  That figures.  Hopps picks his favorite team.

Hopps:  At least I CAN pick my favorite team.  Where are your Bears.

Pepster: Just waiting for DeShaun Watson to suit up!

Hopps:  Yeah, well we have Dak Prescott, and Zeke.  The rookies will have the day.

Sinickal:  You know what the rookies won't do?  Stop Aaron Rodgers.  That dude is on fire.

Pepster:  Glad you said it, because I can't say his name.  But, even with Jordy Nelson out, Davante Adams has really been the best receiver this year for the Packers anyway.  And, as touchdowns are falling from the sky, we get to yell, "Geronimo".

Sinickal:  Ezekial Elliott is a monster, and if Dallas can find some way to carve up the already porous Packer secondary, this game could become a super high scoring shootout.  That would favor Rodgers, no?

Hopps:  Cowboys!

Sinickal:  That doesn't answer my question.

Hopps:  I don't care - Cowboys!

Sinickal and Pepster:  Just for  your insolence, Packers.

Pepster:  There you have it.  Unanimous for New England and Pittsburgh.  2 for Atlanta (Pepster and Hopps) and 2 for Green Bay (Pepster and Sinickal).  Last week's records:

Sinickal:  4-0
Pepster:  3-1
Hopps:  3-1

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)

NFL Wild Card Roundtable

Pepster:  It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen, where the best of the best football players in the world start the competition for Super Bowl Champion.  That's right, it's Wildcard Weekend, with four (almost) scintillating competitions that begin this afternoon.  Let's jump right it, and we will take the games in the order that they will be played.  First up:  Oakland and Houstson.

Sinickal:  Excuse me?  That is the first playoff game of the year?  Can we just fast forward to next week?

Hopps:  I probably won't even watch.

Pepster:  OK,I hear you.  So we don't start off with the most attractive of matchups, especially given the Brock Osweiler/Conner Cook quarterback competition.  Which sounds like something that should be said during training camp for third string.

Hopps:  This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that a quarterback will be making his first career start in the postseason.  Good luck Conner Cook, you are going to need it.

Sinickal:  The over/under on Cook completions should be 2.

Pepster:  That might be a little low, so I'll take that over, but the Texans did finish the season with the number one defense in terms of total yards (but 11th in points).  Good thing for them that they are a whopping 29th in total yards on offense (but they are T28th in points).

Hopps:  Speaking of Houston's defense, I predict that Michael Crabtree will get his chain snatched again.

Sinickal:  That is where we disagree.  Crabtree will be wearing a padlock around his neck.  That might slow him down a bit, though.

Pepster, Sinickal, Hopps (in unison):  Texans.

Pepster:  Let's turn to tonight's game in Seattle as the Seahawks  host the Detroit Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had by most standards, a helluva year, especially given the retirement of Calvin Johnson and virtually every running back on the team.

Sinickal:  Stafford will break his thumb on this throwing hand - because that's what the Lions do.

Hopps:  The Lions haven't won a playoff game since Barry Sanders.  BARRY SANDERS.

Pepster:  Well, both of those may be true, but this isn't the same Seahawks team as the previous few years.  They struggled early (boring close win [12-10] over the Dolphins in week 1 when the Dolphins started pre-retirement Arian Foster), they struggled late (losing at home to Arizona in week 16 and barely beating a despicably bad San Francisco team 25 - 23 in week 17).  They just haven't been the same since Earl Thomas went out.  Part of what makes the "Legion of Boom" great is all of them collectively, and Thomas is likely the best.

Sinickal and Hopps (in unison):  BUT IT'S THE LIONS!

Pepster:  I am going with Detroit.  Stafford throws for 330 and 3 touchdowns.

Sinckal and Hopps:  HA! HA! HA!

Sinickal:  Wait, you're serious?

Hopps:  Given me Seattle.

Sinickal:  Me too.  Good luck with that.

Pepster:  Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more enticing that the dreck we have tonight.  Let's go to the early game where the Miami Dolphins are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers are a 10 point favorite.  Now, honestly, this I do not understand.  The Dolphins defeated the Steelers earlier this season - albeit at home - after knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game.  Their defense bottled up Le'Veon Bell nicely, who only gained 53 yards rushing (+55 yards receiving).  Should this really be a 10 point spread.

Sinickal:  Well, Matt Moore is pretty nice as far as backup quarterbacks go, but I think Ryan Tannehill gets into this game for at least one snap just so he can say he played in a playoff game.  Come to think of it, so will Brock Osweiler!

Hopps:  Not that I am a big Tom Savage fan, but GOOD GOD - BROCK OSWEILER.

Pepster:  Anyway - let's get back to the Dolphins/Steelers game.

Sinickal:  Pittsburgh, easy.

Hopps:  I concur.

Pepster:  It's unanimous.  Steelers.  Primarily because I do not want to see the Dolphins play at New England next week.  Last game, New York Giants at 11-5 travel to the higher seeded Green Bay Packers at 10-6.  Predictions?

Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is pushed out at the sideline for a first down in the second quarter next to Eli Manning, where the two set into a heated squabble over who is the greatest playoff QB ever. Strangely missing from that conversation is Joe Montana.

Hopps:  Well, the last two times the Giants went to Green Bay they went on to win a Super Bowl.  Eli has a much better post season record in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.

Pepster:  Guys, are we really getting into the minutiae of which quarterback is better in one specific stadium?

Sinickal:  I didn't mean for us to get into that discussion, I just think Eli and Aaron will.

Hopps:  I will get into any argument I want.

Pepster:  Well, I will never give any credit to Aaron Rodgers, so to try to seem neutral, I will compliment Green Bay's left tackle, David Bakhtiari who, with all apologies to Tyron Smith, was the best left tackle in football this year.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  No, that is Baltimore Ravens guard John Urschel, who while playing in the NFL just started pursuing his Ph.D. in Mathematics at M.I.T., was named to Forbes "30 under 30" list in the field of science, has had six peer reviewed mathematics papers (with 3 more ready for review), and he specializes in spectral graph theory, numerical linear algebra and machine learning.

Sinickal:  I was talking about you!

Hopps:  Well, you both have points there.

Pepster:  So, who is going to win?

Hopps:  Giants.

Sinickal:  Packers.

Pepster:  Green Bay has gone through Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Knile Davis, John Kuhn, Christine Michael at Running Back, and even Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett thought about coming out of retirement before they settled on Tight End Ty Montgomery as their go-to tailback.  They still have a better rushing attack then the Giants.  Packers.

Any last thoughts

Sinickal:  Can we just get to next week?

Hopps:  So you can watch my Cowboys?

Sinickal:  Dope.

Pepster:  See everyone here next week.

Picks of the Week

An exhilarating (and money-making) way to finish up the NFL regular season by going 11-5, and only a play or two away from 13-3!!!

I will make my regular picks using the spread and count that toward my yearly totals.  I will also attempt to select just the winners of the games themselves.  I will do this first in the column, but these bets will not count against my yearly running total.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
The Golden State Warriors are the only hotter team in North American sports.  Alex Smith is actually good, and the fact that Jamal Charles is hurt has only diversified and improved the Chiefs offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Cincinnati Bengals
I am not confident in this pick at all, as this game could go either way.  I just think that Roethlisberger's experience will help Pittsburgh when it counts in the fourth quarter.

Seattle Seahawks over Minnesota Vikings
Seattle is easily the best team in this game, and it isn't even close.

Washington Racists over Green Bay Packers
Because I can't select all four visiting teams (although watch Green Bay win and Cincinnati be the lone home team to be victorious).

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Houston Texans +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are overall the better team and they are getting Lamar Houston back, perhaps their best defender and definitely their best pass rusher, so they should win the game; however, Houston's defense is no slouch and they are at home getting points, so this game should be close.  It will be interesting to see which receiver makes the most big plays, Jeremy Maclin or DeAndre Hopkins.  Hopefully this games ends with a late Travis Kelce touchdown for Kansas City to take the lead, just so we can see what type of dance Kelce does (and for which nobody complains - YES I AM TALKING TO YOU CAM NEWTON HATERS).

Cincinnati Bengals + 1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Would it surprise anyone if this was a 1 point game?  No.  Would it surprise anyone if Cincinnati won?  No (even though I picked Pittsburgh to win outright).  That is why I am taking the home underdog.  A.J. McCarron can sling the ball downfield, and Pittsburgh's secondary is a bit suspect (remember the New England game earlier in the year?).

BONUS SELECTION - OVER 44 1/2
Both the Bengals and Steelers can score a lot against each other.

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Washington Racists -1 v. Green Bay Packers
I hate to do this to you Marcus, but Washington is actually playing much better ball than Green Bay right now, and GASP, Kirk Cousins is the better quarterback in this game (based upon their play this year only).  Green Bay has had problems running the ball, and they miss Jordy Nelson.  Washington spreads the ball around in the running and passing games, which could keep the Packers defense from keying in on any individual player.  Jordan Reed might be the best offensive player on the field tomorrow.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP

Alabama Crimson Tide -6 1/2 v. Clemson Tigers
Now, I have actually liked Clemson a lot this year, but I just think that the Alabama front 7 is so dominating that it will be tough for Clemson to get on track, whereas Clemson's best defensive lineman Shaq Lawson is injured.  Although he will play, if he isn't close to 100%, it will be hard for the Tigers.

BONUS SELECTION UNDER 50 1/2
Both defenses are better than the offenses that they are going against.  I see this game being something like 28-17 or 28-20.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Minnesota Vikings
A lot of coverage is being given to the fact that the temperature could be as high as 1 degree tomorrow.  You know what isn't getting any coverage?  The fact that Seattle is much, much better than Minnesota.

Add to that the fact that although both quarterbacks are on the smaller side compared to the average NFL quarterbacks, Russell Wilson's hands are much, much bigger than Teddy Bridgewater's hands, which could make it difficult for the latter to get a good grip on the ball.  Expect a couple of bad throws from Bridgewater that either miss open receivers or float into the secondary for interceptions, and perhaps a fumble from a hit by Bennett.

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Year-to-Date Record: 124-109-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-4
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $700
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,330

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Picks

So, my quest for a perfect playoffs ended way early, but my disdain for my personal picks ended after watching thelast quarter of the New Orleans - San Francisco game. Fantastic, and just absolutely the reason why we watch playoff football. Well, that and watching the sports bar I was in turn off the Denver-New England game for UFC.

As always, I will make the picks straight up and against the spread.

Baltimore Ravens +7 at New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens

New England's offense is out-of-this world, however, the Pats have to play against an equally talented (and perhaps more so) defense in the Ravens. However, the Ravens can play the run, and the pass, whereas the Patriots can only really pass. In fact, Aaron Hernandez (about whom I commented when he was at UF would be the best pro out of those Gator teams), was the leading running back last week for New England. For those new to the game of football, Hernandez is a TIGHT END!

Since New England cannot really run very well, and if they try, Haloti Ngata will stuff that, leaving Terrell Suggs to rush, Ray Lewis to cover sideline-to-sideline, and the opportunistic secondary to make things difficult for the New England pass catchers.

One caveat, New England can win if Rob Gronkowski gets matched up with Ray Lewis or a safety one-on-one.

That being said, Ray Rice outperforms everyone, and scores enought for the Ravens to wing.

New York Giants +2 at San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants

San Francisco was ridiculously impressive last week, and Alex Smith looked like he not only belongs in the league, but he could be a star. However, that was against New Orleans' defense. The Giants defense, led by the best player in the league this year, Jason Pierre-Paul, is much bigger, faster, stronger and more athletic than the Saints.

Although the 49ers are tough against the run, I expect AHmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be somewhat productive, with Patrick Willis getting a few licks in.

The caveat, if Frank Gore has a 135 yards rushing, 80 yards receiving and 3 Touchdown kind of game, the 49ers can win.

I don't think they will.

Last Week Straight Up: 2-2
Last Week Against-the-Spread: 2-2
Playoffs Straight Up: 3-5
Last Week Against-the-Spread: 3-5

Playoff Picks

Boy was I way off the reservation last week. 11-0 is way gone, both straight-up and against the spread. I need a big comeback week to try to get back to respectability, after a darn good season of picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints

The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots

I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.

Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens

Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.

New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.


Playoff Record To Date

Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3

Super Bowl Roundtable

Welcome everybody to the Super Bowl Roundtable discussion. Joining me are Sinickal and Hopps. It's the biggest day in American sports, so let us get right to it. Pittsburgh or Green Bay. Since I know what Sinickal is going to say, let's start with you, Hopps. Your thoughts on the game, outright?

Hopps: I have to go with Pittsburgh. Big Ben has been here before, and I think that the defense, led by James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley (not to mention Polamalu), will hit Aaron Rodgers all day.

Sinickal: I agree with you there Hopps. Pittsburgh has a much better defense than the Bears, and other than the opening drive of the NFC championship game, the Bears defense owned Rodgers. If the Bears made life hard for Rodgers, Pittsburgh is definitely going to do the same. The Bears had the Packers on the ropes with a third string quarterback.

Pepster: Don't you mean a 4th string quarterback? When Cutler went down, the Bears put in Todd Collins, and there is no way that he is a second stringer. He has to be a third string quartback. If they replace him with the next guy, Caleb Hanie, then Hanie must be the fourth string.

Sinickal: At least he isn't Henry Burris or Steve Stenstrom.

Pepster: Don't remind me.

Hopps: Plus, I just think that Tomlin is going to have the team much better prepared than the Packers coaching staff. 34 - 31.

Sinickal: Mike Tomlin - I love that magnificent bastard. If he had breasts I would try to marry him.

Pepster: Yes, we all have a man crush on Mike Tomlin, as well. I guess that means that we are all in agreement. We all think that Pittsburgh is going to win this game. Any other interesting thoughts:

Sinickal - not me, bring on the beer. And, Go Steelers. I will never, ever, ever, root for the Green Bay Packers.

Hopps: I have a few. My own personal prop bets. Forget about the over/under, I am picking these exact scenarios:

People carted off the field - 3
Blown ref calls - 2
Brett Favre mentions - 10
Christina Aguilera Hotness - 10.

Very interesting. That concludes our roundtable for today. For my final picks, see below.

OVER 1:54 - Christina Aguilera's national anthem elapsed time

OVER 6 seconds - Christina Aguilera holding "Free"

OVER 3 - Shots of Jerry Jones

OVER 1/2 - A Steeler mimics Aaron Rodgers' championship belt celebration.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2 1/2 over Green Bay Packers

Previous Week's Record: 1-1
Playoff Record: 5-5
Year to Date: 109-78-5
Previous Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-11
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): ($140)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $205

Conference Championship Roundtable

Welcome to our Roundtable Discussion for Conference Championship Weekend in the NFL. Once again all three of us are here today; that is Hopps, Sinickal and myself.

For starters we have the most important game of the new decade, Packers versus the Bears. (Ok - so the decade just started - sue me).

Sinickal: Green Bay is statistically superior, but I going to pick them for another reason; namely that I don't want to have to root for my money and my team with Jay Cutler steering the ship. I am really hoping that he is run over by a bus, and Peyton Manning is given the chance to lead this team since he was so betrayed by Jim Caldwell needing to use all of his timeouts.

Pepster: I share your concern with Cutler, for sure, Sinickal, but everybody in the world is aware that Jim Caldwell is not a very good coach and that he butchered that playoff game. This is not breaking news. You act like you invited this story.

Sinickal: Well, I did have it up on the blog before that day's games were finished.

Pepster: That part is true. Hopps, your thoughts?

Hopps: Bears. They have a better defense.

Pepster: The Bears are known for their defense, but not sure they have the best defense in this game. The Pacers gave up the second fewest points in the league, while the Bears were sixth. Should be pretty tight.

Hopps: Well then, a Bears victory could secure Lovie in charge FOREVER!!!

Pepster: Now that is something to root for. Nothing like a veiled race card reference (foreshadowing) on our blog. I am not sure I want Lovie forever, but he has done pretty well when he has good assistants. Although I want to pick the Bears, I have to select the Packers. First, I cannot put too much faith in Cutler. Second, I had the Packers as one of my pre-season Super Bowl picks (with the Ravens). Third, the games against the Packers have been really close this season, so one turnover could spell the difference, and guess which team has Cutler? I say Packers, but I think the Bears will cover. On to the AFC.

Hopps: Steelers at home. The Jets spent what they had last week at the Pats.

Sinickal: Of course, the New Englander thinks that every team must be spent because they beat the vaunted New England Patriots. Didn't Pittsburgh just win a slugfest over the Ravens?

Hopps: I am being serious this is not a homer reason. The Jets are going to have a letdown.

Pepster: Hopps - who are your favorite Patriots anyway?

Hopps: The same ones that everyone else likes - in order: 1. Brady; 2. Welker; 3. Woodhead; 4. Mankins and 5. Edelman.

Pepster and Sinickal: Those are all the WHITE players! I mean, we will give you Brady, but ...

Sinickal: What about Mayo?

Pepster: What about Wilfork?

Sinickal and Pepster: Typical New England fan.

Pepster: That reminds me of this conversation I had earlier this year while watching the Bears/Ravens game. A Patriots clown starts talking about how much better Tedy Bruschi was than Ray Lewis. He even said that Bruschi is better today than Lewis is. I casually (i.e. with bewilderment) told him that Bruschi wasn't even the best linebacker in Patriots history, much less NFL history (like Lewis is). That linebacker is Andre Tippett, for you New England fans that started watching in the mid-to-late 90's. He keeps carrying on and on until I finally tell him he can have his team of all-time Patriots but I will still take the best player from each position in NFL history and then lets see who wins. That actually got him to shut up. Anyway, Sinickal, your thoughts on the game?

Sinickal: Pittsburgh is better in every statistical category than the Jets, and the Jets just played their Super Bowl. What are we to expect here? Quite honestly, the Jets shouldn't be here at all save Jim Caldwell being the single worst faux football coach on the planet. Oh, and Mike Tomlin is a quote a minute and we need more of that magnificent bastard.

Pepster: Again with the Caldwell. I agree on Mike Tomlin. I think he is much more quotable and fascinating than even Rex Ryan, but not as disturbed. I'll take the Steelers as well. The Jets are not beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh twice in a row, especially with Polamalu and Heath Miller playing today. And as you may recall from last week, Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Chad Henne all had better QB ratings than Sanchez this year. That is not exactly the '83 draft of Elway, Kelly and Marino, or even Blacklege, Eason and O'Brien. That gives me a thought, somebody remind me to write a column on that '83 draft - one that doesn't focus on the QBs. It was phenomenal. Oh yeah, and if the Bears win early, guarantee a Steelers victory. 100% of the time that Lovie Smith has been in the Super Bowl, he has faced another African-American coach. 100%!

Pepster: So to sum it all up - the non-Bears fan selects the Bears, while the two Bears fans pick Green Bay. We all agree on Pittsburgh. Somehow, that sounds like us.

Enjoy watching the games everybody. Read us next week. On to my picks of the week.

My picks of the week:

Chicago Bears+3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers has been playing brilliantly, and so far the Bears have been the only team that could contain him this year, holding him to 17 points early in the season and just 10 in the last game, a must win for the Packers to even make the playoffs. Even though I said the Packers above, I am going to say that it is a close one, no matter what.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. New York Jets
I just don't have enough faith in the Dirty, Dirty.

HOPPS PROP BET OF THE WEEK
OVER/UNDER - 5 - People carted off the field today - OVER

Previous Week's Record: 2-2
Playoff Record: 4-4
Year to Date: 108-77-5
Previous Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 4-11
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): ($185)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $65

Divisional Roundtable

Welcome to the Divisional Week of the NFL Playoffs Roundtable. Here with me today is Hopps and Sinickal.

Let's start with tomorrow, as both of our favorite teams play then. In reverse order, what do we think about the Jets-Pats matchup.

Sinickal: That's easy. The Patriots. They are just better.

Hopps: Pats at home no doubt. The Jets always put their foot in their mouth (or someone else s) and the Pats practice and execute. The Pats will be up 20 at the half and the Jets will quit. I think it's also supposed to snow so look for the Pats to post 40+. Brady's line: (5TDs/ 400+/ 100+ rating). Pats -8 (Big Bet)

Pepster: Gee, that's not much of a homer pick. I will make it a clean sweep and take the Patriots. They are just better, but I think people are also overvaluing the Jets. Let's take Mark Sanchez for example. He finished the season with a lower QB rating than Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Chad Henne. And Dolphins fans want Henne gone. Pats in a rout. But, can we please put all this childish wannabe trash talk away? Welker, your foot/feet presser was boring and dumb. Try to be a little clever, OK? Also, Hopps, yours wasn't much better. Bears v. Seahawks?

Hopps: Remember, I picked the Seahawks last week!

Pepster: Yes, but you said you didn't know why, you just wanted to do it. You thought Pete Carroll would dumb his way into a playoff victory.

Hopps: But I was right!!! Seahawks +10. This will be the most painful dagger in Si's heart. He once said to me "Lovie should be coach of the year" - enter the Pete Carroll face (again). Even the Hawks won't know how they won this game...but they will.

Sinickal: I am going with the Seahawks. Cutler is going to kill us.

Pepster: I sure hope not Sinickal, but I cannot say that is not a viable option. I am going to go with our Bears, and then remind you of your Sinicism next week. Cutler sure does scare me though. What about the other NFC game - the Packers and Falcons? I am going to say the Packers. Sure they cannot run, but they have a helluva QB. In yet another stat I will quote again below, the Packers only lost by 3to the Falcons earlier in the season, and the Packers are playing phenomenally better.

Sinickal: If Bears ain't going, Pack ain't going.

Hopps: Now that is some interesting analysis. Me, I also say Atlanta, but for a specific reason. Matty Ice at home during his career is 19-2. The Pack is good, but the Falcons are better. Great balance, great in all 3 phases, and one hell of a RB. They win this on turnover margin.

Pepster: Any particular reason why you only mentioned the BC guy?

Hopps: I mentioned the QB. He just happens to be from BC. What about the first game, Steelers/Ravens?

Sinickal: No matter what everybody says about how close these two teams are, Pittsburgh is the much better team statistically and at QB. Expect a Flacco interception late in the game to seal it.

Hopps: I am taking Pittsburgh. The only difference between Brady and Big Ben is 1 SB win. He plays as good in big games as Brady. Steelers D brings the pain and Flacco can't close.

Pepster: One SB win, and 2 rape accusations. I am going to take the Ravens. Mostly because I want to see them play the Patiots again, but partly because I am sick of hearing that damn "Here we go" song by Steelers fans. Ed Reed could be the big difference, and Matt Birk - from Harvard - is questionable. If they both play, the Ravens are a much, much better team than without them. I'll take a flier on the Ravens.

Everyone, check back with us next week for Championship weekend.

My picks of the week:

Baltimore Ravents +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
My mind tells me that the Steelers are going to win, especially with Roethlisberger, but (a) I picked the Ravens at the beginning of the season; and (b) the played the Patriots incredibly close earlier in the season. I want to see that matchup. Not usually big on the wishful thinking bets, but I will this time.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay lost by 3 earlier this year and seem to be playing much, much better.

Chicago Bears -10 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Bears are the one team that is not going to overlook the Seahawks, having already lost to them at home earlier this year. At that time the Bears were a revolving door on the offensive line and played without Lance Briggs. I look for a big Bears play early and Seattle to fold.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots -8 1/2 v. New York Jets
They are just better than the Jets. Plus, I'll say it again, Jason Campbell, Alex Smith, Shaun Hill and Chad Henne all had better QB ratings that Mark Sanchez did.

Previous Week's Record: 2-2
Playoff Record: 2-2
Year to Date: 106-75-5
Previous Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 4-10
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): $130
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $250

Playoffs Picks of the Week

Here is this week's "Playoffs Picks of the Week". So, another 50-50 week, but thanks to the over bet on the Saints, a great winning week. I am looking to ride that train through the Super Bowl.

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

Indianapolis Colts -8 v. New York Jets
The Jets defense may be great, but Peyton Manning will still move the ball against them. And even if Darelle Revis shuts down another star wide receiver in Reggie Wayne, that still leaves Dallas Clark, and an up-and-coming Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Colts to the Super Bowl.

New Orleans Saings -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Saints just know how to score points, whether it be running the ball with Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush, or through the air with about 100 different receivers, or even via special teams with a newly revitalized Reggie Bush. The Vikings are also potent, but they seem to have forgotten about Adrian Peterson, and that could punish them if they get into a gunfight with Drew Brees. Favre with 3 picks this game.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints - OVER 54
This line just moved up 1/2 point from the time I started this post until now. Not a good sign for this bet, but both teams can score in a myriad of ways, including via defense. 27 points per half is just fine by me. I'll take the over.

Previous Week's Record: 3-2 (1-0 Big Bet)
Playoffs To Date: 5-4 (1-1 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 99-74-3 (6-5-1)
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): $230
Playoffs Winnings (Losses): $45
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1820

Playoff Picks of the Week

Here is this week's "Playoffs Picks of the Week". Yes, the first game has already started, but I have previosuly made my selection to some of my friends, so nobody can accuse me of cheating (plus, the bet had to be made before kickoff).

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Yes Cincinnati played a limited game plan last week, but they got their asses beat. Bad. Too much to overcome.

Philadelphia Eagles +4 at Dallas Cowboys
Unlike the above rematch, last week Philly was a couple of close passes away from making it a game, and they never, ever, blitzed. Plus, Andy Reid is like 141-0 in first round playoff games. Slight exaggeration, but he is undefeated.

Baltimore Ravens + 3 1/2 at New England
The Welker loss is huge, and Ray Rice has jumped into the upper echelon of running backs this year. He is a legitimate double threat.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -1 at Arizona Cardinals
The Packers defense is too strong and dominating for the Cardinals. Plus, the Cardinals are down at WR with Boldin's injury, and Steve Breaston not making the leap this year that was expected after a 77 catch season last year.

Previous Week's Record: 8-6-2 (0-0-2 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 94-70-3 (5-4-1)
Previous Week's Winnings (Losses): $140
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1775