Divisional Playoffs/Picks of the Week

A really good opening week to the playoffs.  Just a couple of plays from an extraordinary week.  Hopefully that continues.  Once again, for the playoffs and since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Eagles are the home team and yes they are the number 1 seed.  Yes, the Falcons are the number 6 seed.  The Falcons are the reigning NFC champions, they did win 10 games this year and they are starting their starting quarterback.  This game features the seventh ranked defense (Eagles) and 8th ranked defense (Falcons) in the NFL  I will take Matt Ryan and the experience of the Falcons over the versatility of the Eagles offense.  24-21.

Atlanta Falcons -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
Since I feel Atlanta will cover the spread, I have to take them with the money line, especially since Philly is only +$130, so not much extra incentive to take the Eagles here.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 40
Two really good defenses, but 40 really isn't a lot of points.  Like I said before, 24-12, Atlanta.

Tennessee Titans +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
Let's get this straight from the beginning:  there is no way Tennessee wins this matchup.  I just think that with the tough running of Derrick Henry, and Mariota making a few plays, the Patriots might only win by 10.

New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
This is really a suckers bet.  Not because I don't think New England will win, but because there is little or no value in making this bet, but since I am picking each games money line, I am definitely taking the Patriots.  No doubt they win.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I am not sure Tennessee scores enough to get to the 48.  New England 28-18, maybe?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville destroyed Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year.  I do not expect that to happen again, but I also expect that the Jaguars defense can keep this game closer than the line.

Pittsburgh Steelers -$320 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $320 to win $100)
Not a value bet, but I feel good about Pittsburgh's chances to win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41
Blake Bortles looks like he is playing like Blake Bortles.  This could end up being a 20-14 game.

New Orleans Saints +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has had a great season, finishing 11th in total offense and 1st in total defense, but New Orleans is second in total offense, and they will put enough points on the board to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints +$200 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $200)
Yes, I think that New Orleans will win outright over the Vikings, so I will take the money line bet.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings OVER 46
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 7-5
Playoff Record - 7-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  131-129-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $200
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $200
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1010)