Picks of the Week

 

Last week could have gone horribly.  As it was, with the vig and losing the big bet put me in a hole to start, but winning the last 4 games of the weekend brought me up to .500.  So there is that.  Let's see if I learned anything.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Football Team -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

So again I took the home team on Thursday, this time because it was a short week.  Lost this one, but this theory will win out more Thursdays than it loses.

Chicago Bears -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bears showed some life in the first half on the road against the Rams.  This one is at home and the Bengals are not the Rams.

Denver Broncos -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Teddy Two Gloves versus Trevor Lawrence.  Too bad for the Jaguars that everyone else has to play as well.  And thank you to the Broncos for being in the Mountain Time Zone and not the Pacific, otherwise I would be forced to pick Jacksonville.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

The Bills are better, but they did not look good last week.  So, they either learned their lesson that they have to actually play every game, or, they may have regressed.  Although probably the former, I'll take points on the home team in a divisional rivalry.

Houston Texans +13 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

So Houston may not be the worst team in the league.  Cleveland wins this game, probably easily, but 13 is A LOT of points this early in the season when we haven't quite figured everything out yet.  Cleveland is my pick in my suicide pool, which lost a good number of people week 1 who selected Buffalo and Green Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Pacific coast team travelling east and playing in the early game.  Plus, Philly looked better than I thought last week - although San Fran was cruising for a while too!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

I am here for the Jameis Winston era in New Orleans, so long as Sean Payton keeps allowing him to fling it.  But, as in the Miami-Buffalo game, I'll take home points this early in the season in an intra-divisional game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams make the Super Bowl this year, but traveling east to play in the early game, the week after playing the Sunday Night game.  They could still win, but don't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Pittsburgh showed us their defense is still a traditional Steelers defense.  And the Raiders won a hard-fought overtime game against the Ravens last week.  So, not only is LV traveling east to play early, they are on a short week after playing an entire additional quarter on Monday night.  I'll take Pittsburgh.

New York Jets +5 1/2 v. New England Patriots

With two rookie QBs, the smart play is to bet on Belichick.  But, I think this game will be close, so I'll take points at home.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons -12 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta is bad.  Tampa should be good.  But that is a lot of points to be giving up.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is possibly an overreaction to week 1's game against the Buccaneers.

Seattle Seahawks -6 v. Tennessee Titans

Seattle are serious contenders, and at home.  Tennessee was worked by Arizona last week, how do they rebound?  I believe with a second loss in a a row.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Short, exhausting week for the Ravens after their Monday Night overtime loss to the Raiders.  Their reward?  Trying to keep up with the Chiefs' offense.

Green Bay Packers -11 v. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers looked horrible last week.  No better bounce back than the Lions, who looked spry against the 49ers.  Spry doesn't mean they are good.

  

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Is it too early to start the Kyler Murray for MVP chants?  Of course it is, but 21-32 for 289 and 4 TDs, plus a rushing TD at Tennessee was a great start.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  8-8

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($245)

Picks of the Week

 

Merry Christmas weekend everybody, and the NFL is in full effect trying to take over another holiday.  Games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and going head-to-head with the NBA's marquis matchups on Christmas Day.  As you will see from my first pick, which league won yesterday.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

So, after family time, and family lunch, this house had on the NBA games (GO HEAT!!!)  Paying so much attention to what is technically the real  not actual start to the NBA season (although this year is the actual start to the season), that we basically forgot about this game.  So much so that I did not put my pick out in the ether.  But, everyone that reads this blog regularly knows that I prefer home teams on short weeks, so this makes this game an easy win, right?  Nope.  Being so discombobulated by rushing the selection, my dumb ass selected Minnesota because for some reason I thought they were the home team.  I realized it before the first score, but, cannot change a bet after the game starts.  Oops.

Detroit Lions +10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

So yes, the home team on a short week, but also a home team getting double digit points.  Tampa Bay has not been dominating teams, even in wins, and Detroit has played some difficult teams close, despite being run through by the Titans last week.

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers

I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).

 

Miami Dolphins -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

Not the home team on a short week, but home teams on short weeks win about 2/3 of the time - perhaps this is the third time.  (Although with my luck Tampa covers and the Raiders win this game - but that is why they call it gambling).  The Dolphins have a shockingly good defense, and by shocking it is because they are 18th in passing defense, 19th in rushing defense, and 20th in total defense, but 1st in scoring defense).  The Raiders are not good enough on offense to exploit this, so I will take the Dolphins, even as a road favorite, especially since the Dolphins are starting to open up the playbook for Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa.

Chicago Bears -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

So your boy is still holding out hope that he might be able to attend the game (currently in Jacksonville).  Why would I pick the Bears as a more than TD favorite on the road?  Well, the Jaguars are currently 28th in passing defense, 30th in rushing defense, 30th in scoring defense and dead last (32nd) in total defense.  Trubisky and the Bears offense are clicking a bit under Bill Lazor's playcalling and they should score a lot of points this week.

New York Jets +9 v. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have won 5 of their last 6, but each game has been close (3 points, 5 points, 2 points, 6 points, 5 points and a 14 point victory over the Giants last week).  The Jets have little hope of winning two in a row, but their rushing defense is 14th in the league, so perhaps they slow down Chubb and Hunt enough to keep this close.

Baltimore Ravens -10 1/2 v. New York Giants

The Ravens, who are first in the league in rushing offense, have scored over 34 in each of their last 3 games (all wins), behind a sudden surge of passing from Lamar Jackson (6TDs, 1 INT) during that span.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

We should not overreact to the Bengals victory over Pittsburgh last week, as Pittsburgh was slipping by some teams even during their winning streak, but, the Texans are spiraling, having lost 3 in a row by a combined 42 points.  However, two of those losses were to the Colts.  Houston's is getting an MVP-type season from DeShaun Watson (second in passing yards and QB rating).  Plus, Cincinnati is on a short week.

Atlanta Falcons +11 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has won 9 in a row, by (from most recent) 3, 6, 6, 3, 4, 2, 26 (Jets), 27 (Broncos), and 9.  Atlanta has the 4th best passing offense in the league, and although missing Julio Jones, should still score enough points to keep this game close.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis, with a win here, could possibly move up to second in the AFC playoff standings, whereas a loss by Pittsburgh could put them in to a tie with the Browns for the AFC North title, one game up on the Ravens.  This would set up fireworks in the final week with the Steelers playing the Browns (and Ravens playing the Bengals).  I expect all of this to happen.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Denver Broncos

Justin Herbert has had a great rookie campaign, and looks to finish strong against a Broncos defense that might be missing rusher Bradley Chubb.

Washington Football Team -1 v. Carolina Panthers

I am making this selection on the premise that Alex Smith returns from his calf injury for the game at 80-85%.  If this doesn't happen, this pick is not going to win.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Seattle Seahawks

The Rams got caught looking ahead to this game last week, and dropped a game to the Jets that could have put them in a tie for the division lead with Seattle.  Because of that, Seattle can clinch the division with a win today.  The Rams counter with an amazing defense that ranks 3rd in scoring, 2nd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing and total defense.  Russell Wilson certainly will challenge any defense, but I expect Los Angeles to be up for the challenge.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

So Dallas is playing better with Tony Pollard in the backfield instead of Ezekial Elliott, but Philadelphia has been playing MUCH better with Jalen Hurts at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz.  Both teams still have a shot at the playoffs, but Jalen Hurts has a much more recent winning background, so I will take the Eagles in this game.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has had a disappointing season against the spread, and a mediocre run defense which will take on the the NFL's leading rusher and biggest offensive tank in Derrick Henry.  It would not surprise me if Tennessee won this one outright, but I do think the run game keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field enough that this game will be close.

New England Patriots +7 v. Buffalo Bills

These teams have already played once this year, with the Bills squeeking by the Patriots with a three point win in Buffalo.  The Bills have gone 5-1 since that point, but the Patriots are a respectable 4-3 since that game as well.  And, do we think Belichick has learned more or less about the Bills since then?  I expect a close game in Foxboro.

  

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers

I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).

Honestly, I just want to get my Big Bet out of the way early, and have something to cheer for today, in case I do have the opportunity to go to the Bears game tomorrow.  Other games I considered were Ravens (double digits) and Indianapolis (visiting team), so I selected Arizona.

Last Week's Record:  6-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  115-104-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $205

Picks of the Week

 

Well, after six consecutive winning weeks, I got annihilated last week.  Frankly, I am glad that it happened because I was just waiting for it to happen.  The real kicker, though, is that I lost my first Big Bet of the season.  Ouch.  Now that it is over with, hopefully I can get back to my winning ways.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Green Bay Packers

I was OK with this since San Francisco was a home team on a short week, but honestly, I didn't realize Aaron Jones was returning for the Packers.  That was a big mistake.

Tennessee Titans -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The biggest problem with the Bears is their offensive line, and they lose another starter (their third), this time it's Cody Whitehair to Covid-19.  Not good, especially since they have their immobile starter in Nick Foles.

 

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Denver Broncos

The NFL's second ranked passing offense (and 6th overall), gets to host Denver, who has been playing better under Drew Lock, having won 3 of their last 4.  But, Atlanta's passing attack will be too much.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Buffalo Bills

I am going against the "west coast team travelling east and playing the early game" adage because in the Russell Wilson Era, the Seahawks seem to be immune to this betting rule.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Indianapolis Colts

This is the proverbial immovable object meets the irresistable force as the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense (Baltimore) meets the NFL's number one ranked total defense (and 2nd ranked rush defense) in the Colts.  The difference here will be that the Colts' offense has been paltry under Philip Rivers, whereas the Ravens defense is typically stout (2nd in scoring defense).

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Houston Texans

I have no reason for this pick whatsoever.  This is a game that seems like Houston should win, so it seems to easy.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Carolina Panthers

Second in scoring offense, and not even the return of Christian McCaffrey can keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit's rush defense (23rd in the NFL), is not going to be able to handle the whirling dervish that is Dalvin Cook.

Washington Football Team -3 v. New York Giants

Believe this or not, Washington's defense is 4th in total defense and 1st in passing defense.  Offense is not great, but it is still better than the Giants' offense (30th and 31st).  Plus, the Giants are on a short week.  Have I mentioned that I love typing Washington Football Team?!

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at Los Angeles Chargers

Ooooh, I get to pick a road favorite.  I am sooooo daring.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big number for a road favorite (counteracting the Raiders 1 point), but the Cowboys have scored 1 offensive touchdown since Dak Prescott went down.  I don't expect them to score too many against Pittsburgh's 6th ranked defense (total, passing, scoring - 5th in rushing defense).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas is back, but will it take a while for him to get back into rhythm.  Tampa Bay is clicking on offense, using everyone.   Even before Michael Thomas went out, New Orlease was slogging through their games, even their wins.  It does scare me that it is a short week for Tampa Bay, but hopefully the fact this is a night game minimizes that.

New England Patriots -9 1/2 at New York Jets

This is not your normal New England Patriots, but it is your normal New York Jets.  They are horrible.  I don't like this spread for a prime time game, especially given New England's 29th ranked scoring offense, but they took the Bills down to the wire in Buffalo last week - losing only due to a late Cam Newton fumble, and Damien Harris is turning into a really good running back.

Bye Week - Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

I honestly see Arizona scoring a lot of points.  Yes, Miami has the number-1 ranked scoring defense, but they are 23rd in total defense, 20th in passing defense, and 21st in rushing defense).  So, Miami's defensive ranking is very much an anomaly.

Others that I thought about for this spot, Tennessee over Chicago, Kansas City over Carolina, and Washington over New York Giants.

Last Week's Record:  4-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-50-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($755)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1885

Picks of the Week

I am travelling, so no time for analysis.  perhaps that will help.

Jacksonville +3 at Tennessee
Cincinnati -3 v. Washington (in London)
Buffalo + 5 1/2 v. New England
Cleveland +2 v. New York Jets
Houston -1 1/2 v. Detroit
Indianapolis + 2 1/2 v. Kansas City
Seattle -1 at New Orleans
Oakland - 1 1/2 at Tampa Bay
Arizona +3 at Carolina
Denver -3 1/2 v. San Diego
Atlanta -3 v. Green Bay
Philadelphia +5 at Dallas
Chicago +4 v. Minnesota (hoping to lose; wanting DeShaun Watson)

Big Bet - Arizona +3 at Carolina

Last Week's Record:  8-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  52-55-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($135)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1890)

Picks of the Week

Picked 3 of the 4 winners last week, but unfortunately, missed most of the spreads.  So I am changing my rules a bit.  I will be counting the straight up  money line bets as well as the spread for the playoffs.  This isn't just because of last week, but because there are only four games this week, and less going forward.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Kansas City Chiefs at New England
I know that we are never supposed to doubt Belichick and Brady, but this New England team is really beat up, plus, Kansas City is solid in every aspect of the game.   Sure the Maclin injury huts, but they rely less on 1 single person than any team in the league.

Arizona v. Green Bay
It is chic to say that Green Bay's offense is back after last week, but they didn't play Arizona last week.

Seattle Seahawks over Carolina Panthers
They played a fairly even game earlier in the year, and Seattle's offensive line, and team, are playing much better now.

Denver Broncos over Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think any starters remain on Pittsburgh's offense.

AGAINST THE SPREAD - ACTUAL PICKS

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at New England Patriots
If I expect Kansas City to win outright, then they have to cover, right?

Green Bay Packers + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay is playing better than earlier in the year, especially Aaron Rodgers.  I look for Mike McCarthy to try to run the ball more and keep Arizona's offense off the field.  It won't be enough to win.  Carson Palmer should be getting a lot of consideration for MVP (along with Cam Newton).

Seattle Seahawks + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
As in the Kansas City game, I think the underdog is going to win outright.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
For this game to stay close, Pittsburgh's defense is going to have to outscore Denver's offense.  Won't happen.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Nobody is playing for Pittsburgh.

Last Week's Winners:  3-1
Playoff Winners to Date:  3-1
Last Week's Record:  4-7
Playoff Record:  4-7

Year-to-Date Record: 128-116-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-5
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($535)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $795

Catch Me If You Can

This is going to be a quick entry, as we are fast approaching kickoff, so I will say the Pittsburgh Steelers win, and fairly decisively. They definitely cover the spread. I have already read Sinickal's predictions, and I concur wholeheartedly. I think Willie Parker has a great game with lots of yards, and possibly multiple touchdowns. The Steelers defense closes out. Game Over.

Games are usually that simple. You can overthink predictions, and this is why the Super Bowl should be held the week after the conference championship games. However, if most people overthink the game, and that affects the spread in my favor so be it.

Most prognosticators seem to be caught up in the whole Arizona hype/bandwagon. On this front, I was watching a very underrated flick this morning, Catch Me If You Can, in which Tom Hanks is trying to catch a criminal named Frank Abagnale played by Leonardo DiCaprio. I bring this up simply for one quote. After you read Sinickal's last post, you would hate to be caught up in a dilemma that the young Frank Abagnale encounters. He is approached in the hospital by a senior doctor while pretending himself to be an actual doctor. Abagnale's simple response; "I should have concurred. Don't be Frank Abagnale. I concur - Steelers.