Super Bowl Picks of the Week

Jacksonville took the Patriots to the brink, but the Patriots prevailed.  Philadelphia just took Minnesota to the woodshed.  This brings us to the Super Bowl Picks of the Week. Not many picks this week so I will be adding a prop bet.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles +4 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Each of the Patriots Super Bowl wins has been close, including come from behind win last year against the Falcons.  Philadelphia's defense, especially up front, is every bit as good as Jacksonville's, which seemed to stymie New England for most of the game.  The difference, Philly's offense is better.

Philadelphia Eagles +170 over New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $170)
For all the reasons that I stated above.  Plus, I had this one last year and the Falcons just caved.  I don't expect the Eagles to do the same thing.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots UNDER 49
I hate taking the under.  But this game has a 24-20 feel to it to me.

Pink's National Anthem UNDER 2:00
Luke Bryan went under 2:00 minutes last year, and his over/under was 2:15.  Pink is different because there are no recordings of her singing the national anthem previously.  I think she won't extend brave too long, and will go under.

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles +4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Last Week's Record: 4-2
Playoff Record - 16-14
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Playoff Big Bet:  3-0
Year-to-Date Record:  140-138-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  12-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $300
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $130
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1080)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

What a week last week.  11-1, and the 1 is only because Houston scored a couple of touchdowns to hit the over.  I will take a lot of weeks like that one.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

No roundtable discussion this week, but Hopps has some interesting perspectives on today's games.

"The winners will be the Steelers and the Falcons.  Well, ... and really, really rich old white guys."

And, since Donald Trump is a supporter of the Patriots owner, coach and quarterback, and since Donald Trump has now succeeded Barack Obama as President of the United States the following quip is now actually true, "Orange IS the new black".

Onto the picks ...

Green Bay Packers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Obviously Atlanta's defense is markedly better than last year, but do you really think that they are going to be able to shut down Aaron Rodgers to the point where they win by more than a touchdown.  I think this is going to be a close, high scoring game.  Green Bay has won 8 in a row, and Atlanta has won 5 in a row, so both teams come into this game clicking.  Should be a great game for viewers, especially those that like lots of passing.

Atlanta Falcons -215 v. Green Bay Packers (Bet $215 to win $100)
Green Bay has won 8 in a row, but what are the chances they win 9?  Atlanta has quietly been the best team in the NFC all season, despite the hype given to Dallas because of the Cowboys' record.  They can pass, they can run, and they can rush the passer.  I look for them to make the Super Bowl, and leave Eugene Robinson at home.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (60) OVER
Who doesn't think this could end 41-37, or 37-31?  If both teams hit their averages in points scores, this over wins.  Plus, both quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots
This game should also be close, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown should all have big games.  Brady and Blount are no slouches themselves, and may even win this game, but I don't think they will cover.  Pittsburgh's defense is 12th in total yards, and 10th in points, which should keep them close.

New England Patriots -240 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $240 to win $100)
As close as Pittsburgh should keep this game, Tom Brady still finds a way to pull this one out.  The Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 9-2 against Pittsburgh, and they should continue that today.

Pittsburgh Steelers at at New England Patriots (49 1/2) OVER
Roethlisberger and Brady both throw for over 300 yards and have multiple touchdown passes each..

Last Week's Record:  11-1
Year-to-Date Record:  148-129-5
Playoff Record:  16-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1095
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $875
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($685)

Picks of the Week

Very mediocre week last week.  This week seems pretty easy for me.  As only two games are being played, I will pick the winner, against the spread, and the over/under for each.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
To quote my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".  This seems a bit obvious to me for some reason.

Carolina Panthers v. Arizona Cardinals
Carolina, despite what happened in the second half, thoroughly dominated the Seattle Seahawks, who might be the third or fourth best team in the entire league.  Carolina wins this game, despite the fact that everyone thinks that Carson Palmer, along with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown can take advantage of Carolina's secondary.  Who, is going to take care of Cam Newton?  Really tough year to have gotten rid of Darnell Dockett, Arizona.

AGAINST THE SPREAD

New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
I know what you are saying, "Pepster, why would you take a road favorite in the playoffs?"  Here is why.  New England took Denver into overtime earlier this year without Julian Edelman, the single most important player for New England not named "Tom Brady".  Why is Edelman that important?  Because he gets himself open immediately off the line of scrimmage, which allows Tom Brady to throw those short passes which keeps the defensive pass rush from hitting him.  If the team bunches up against Edelman, then Gronkowski then becomes open.  And to quote Dan Lebatard, "Gronkowski is not human.  Bill Belichick just found a polar bear and taught him how to catch things".  Plus, Peyton Manning did not play in the earlier game, and Peyton is more of a detriment to the Broncos given that he is basically a shell of his former self.  His play actually gives an extra 6 points to New England, in my opinion.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have had a great year, and are perhaps the second best team in the NFL, unfortunately, they are playing the best team in the NFL.  Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are the best linebacker combination in the NFL.  I WILL NOT ARGUE THIS POINT!!!  They have a phenomenal running game, led by Cam Newton, for whom Arizona's defense just cannot account.  If Arizona is going to have a chance, they are going to have to win an absolute shootout, which brings Greg Olsen - the second best tight end in the league this year behind Gronk and highly touted member of the Seventh Floor Crew, into importance - which is not what Arizona wants to do.  If Arizona can make it a shootout, Carson Palmer will have to keep his interceptions down to 0 or 1, which can be tough.

OVER/UNDER

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos 45 - OVER
The Patriots with Gronkowski and Edelman is good for at least 30 themselves, despite the talent on Denver's defense.  The quick passing game will not allow the Broncos' defense to hit Brady with any regularity, and thus, he will pick them apart little by little.  Denver - in order to win - is going to have to rely heavily on its inconsistent running game, which Belichick will gameplan against.  They will tempt Manning to beat them, which he cannot do.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers 47 1/2 - OVER
Lots and lots of points to be scored today, although I feel the over won't be hit until late in the fourth quarter, when a rallying Arizona Cardinals team scores a touchdown with around 2 minutes to go, just before they fail to recover the onside kick.  One note about the Panthers courtesy of Bomani Jones and his producer.  While discussing that Patrick Peterson could cover Ted Ginn, Jr. man-to-man in order to take him out of the game, Jones's producer states that Corey Jones and Jerricho Cotchery will have to have big games.  Bomani Jones's response is simple.  "It's 2016 and we are talking about Jerricho Cotchery".  Now you may think that quote would lead me to pick Arizona, but that goes to show how great Cam Newton and Greg Olsen have been this year - Carolina is winning with Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery.

Big Bet Game of the Week
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Going back to my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".

Last Week's Winners:  2-2
Playoff Winners to Date:  5-3
Last Week's Record:  4-4
Playoff Record:  8-11

Year-to-Date Record: 136-127-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-6
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($205)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $590